On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[HongKongFooy]

The 9/11 era Disney business is my wheelhouse...so I’m coming out of the bullpen throwing 99 on this one.

So you're simultaneously a batter and a pitcher........

 

[Piebald]

First, obligitory "OMG it's @PhotoDave219 ! @mkt ! @ParentsOf4 !" - it kind of feels like Old Home Week. Or, more accurately, it feels like one of those milestone times when you only see certain people - the whole "we only see each other at weddings and funerals these days," and let's face it...this ain't a wedding.



There were probably 30+ posts in this thread that I wanted to reply while reading the entire thing, but this one above speaks as close to anything to the reality of this situation, and this is the first chance I have had. When I read some of these posts thinking that pretty much anything is going back to normal any time even remotely soon is in the "denial" mode of acceptance.

The thought that "oh, Disney is just slow because people don't want to wear masks" idea is...preposterous. Those masks are the only reason they are even allowed to open.

There seems to be some, er, regional differences in what folks are reporting here. So for the record, I'm in the north east (New England) - which, unless something has changed, is pretty much Disney's top market (and I believe someone else verified this a few pages ago).

What I can tell you, we are still taking this very seriously here. Sure, there is the odd crazy "oh this is all overblown!" bracket, but masks are still a fact of life. Just grocery shopping is still a major event - and we still are having hit and miss days in what is stocked (lately, you can find toilet paper OR paper towels, but for some reason, almost no matter where you rarely find both, and if they do, it's just one or two brands). An exceptional trip out would be to actually sit down at an outdoor restaurant, where everyone including staff is masked unless you are sitting at a table.

With all this going on - if you looked at most people and said, "You know what, I'm going to Disney World!" they would look at you like you were insane. Florida is in the running for hot spot of the world, and going to such a notoriously public place as a theme park, Walt Disney World, of all places. I mean, they utterly wouldn't believe you and would think you were joking.

Even best case scenario, even if some miracle vaccine gets released, sure, more people would come - but there are a lot of people who still wouldn't even consider coming for years, even then. There is also so much we still do not know, as well - sure, you might not die if you get it, but we are just finding out that even those that recover have lasting effects and we have no idea which of them may turn out to be long-term. Many people are not willing to risk this, particularly for something as frivolous as Disney.

Now, that part aside - I also don't think everyone understands economically what is going on right now (back to the post I quoted above). The trickle-up, side-ways, every-ways, economic losses are just beginning. The economy is like a giant set of dominoes, going off in all directions. It happened very quickly to certain industries (travel, entertainment, restaurants) but the true economic loss (and job loss) is just really beginning, especially because it looks like this is all (lockdowns, etc.) are going to be happening all over again in many places as we turn to fall.

Many of the small and even medium businesses that depend on foot traffic that have managed to survive to this point have been able to do so because of things like the PPP which allowed them to keep employees during the initial shutdown. That is over now, and business for many has not come back. They just squeaked through a few months with help, because everyone thought it was going to be over and done with and we'd be "back to normal" by now. What is happening is close to what people are describing is happening even at WDW - they blew through a lot of cash keeping people employed, admirably, but inadvertently those employees would have done a lot better and would be better off now if they had just been laid off to begin with as government benefits are (as of now) expired.

There is going to be a lot more job loss, a lot more businesses closing, and a lot more unemployed people, especially in any industry related to travel in any way, even tangentially. Business/convention travel is DEAD. DEAD as a doornail. And, *not* just because as COVID - it will not recover in any where near real form, most likely. Like many things, COVID has greatly accelerated what was already happening.

After the '08 economic crisis, people thought the same thing - that virtual meetings would take over, etc. It didn't happen, mostly because even then, technology wasn't that great. Devices weren't as ubiquitous (the iPhone had just been released, for reference). But the lockdowns FORCED people to quickly adapt, and a dozen years later - we are so much more connected and the technology is a lot better. Corporations around the world are realizing they don't need to spend millions of dollars a year shuttling people around on business trips when most of them were just for "face time". The days of being sent to a week-long conference in Vegas or Orlando for...pretty much anything, are over.

Of course, this all ties in to the tourist industry - everywhere - because most places (even Orlando) who have a large tourist industry also depend on business travel/conventions as part of their backbone due to the infrastructure/etc. Even if the tourist industry came back full-swing, the losses are enormous. Sure, Disney will somehow cope - but the rest of Orlando? Everyone from the off-site hotels, car services, restaurants, stores - the economic impact is just beginning. And this is happening in so many places in so many ways right now, to any town/city that is travel/tourism based (and that's a lot more than you think).

I've read here people talking about Vegas, and back to New England where I am the story is similar- all the coastal resort towns are being decimated. As I described above, many were able to make it into July because of various assistance or simply being able to weather the storm, holding out that they could rescue the summer. It isn't happening. The ultra-wealthy (the 1%) who own expensive property are here (most flying privately), but they are holed up in their estates and aren't out spending money locally except perhaps grocery delivery.

The other people who are here...aren't spending money. In one of the Vegas posts it was described best as the type of people who rent a cheap hotel, buy a bottle of booze from Walgreens, and then just hang around not spending money. It's just that the ones up here are from New York, and not California. The "normal" middle and upper class visitors who do spend money, who stay at nice places, who eat at nice restaurants every day, who use local services like taxis and such - the ones the majority of the money comes from - simply are not here. And given that most businesses in towns like these up and down the coast depends on these 12 - 16 weeks a year to be able to stay open through the winter...yeah, the economic impact is going to continue, and much of this business is not coming back, for at least a very long time.

Great post. Scary times for sure. I mean, there was a stretch where "recession proof job" took on a meaning no one could even fathom. Imagine telling dentists and physician assistants making $100k-300k+ starting that theyd have hours reduced or be furloughed but the kid at McDonalds was working OT like there was no tomorrow.

And while things may have "normalized" a bit now, that deck of cards is ready to fall. People are focused on the server like you said. But they're not thinking big picture. They're not thinking of the tech company that supports that server/restaurant's payment system. The sales/marketing team who sold them that payment system. The developers and tech people who maintain that payment system. People are thinking of the housekeeper at the hotel who may get laid off. But they're also not thinking of the account manager who sells them the linens. They're not thinking of the company that sells and designs their digital menus at the restaurant. They're not thinking of the company was scheduled to supply the hotel with all the thousands of feet of trim that the hotels new location was going to need, but now that project has been canceled.

The ripple effects here are...quite terrifying.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

If they don't want people coming why open at all?

I think there are multiple reasons from other parks opening to having some sort of revenue coming in to a multitude of other reasons. I don’t think they wanted to open just yet. They decided to dip the toes back in the water and figure things out as they go along.
They can’t even get to the minimum capacity that they set themselves. They could easily with discounts but won’t ever undercut themselves with 100 dollar rooms and 50 dollar tickets. They would be admitting to everyone that it’s no better then six flags. Which brings me back to the reason I don’t think they want crowds. Sure, want to pay those prices for a room? Ok they will take you.
Said this in another thread. My wife has cancelled 15 out of 15 trips she had set up for clients traveling August and September. Half of them cancelled outright, the other half want to just move to 2021. When trying to rebook them, she was told every time, no package discounts.. no specials.. nothing in the way of even a little bit of added enticement to get them to rebook.

 

[celluloid]

Just remember the Jungle Cruise sinking, Peoplemover accident and other poor maintenance examples when the money was good.

 

[Capsin4]

They don’t want people coming right now. That’s why rooms are rack rate, no free dining.. no discounts at all into next year. They will take anyone that’s willing to pay 700 bucks for a studio at OKW or SSR, if people are willing to pay that but that’s all they want in right now. It’s a different ballgame from 9/11.

They have room and ticket discounts for military. Just not as generous.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

They have room and ticket discounts for military. Just not as generous.

Didn’t know that, thanks!

 

[HongKongFooy]

The thought that "oh, Disney is just slow because people don't want to wear masks" idea is...preposterous. Those masks are the only reason they are even allowed to open.

Preposterous...Ok sure.

Mayan Riviera/Cancun is seeing a lot of bookings and travel.......no guest mask requirement at resorts. Volcano Bay is doing OK...way, way better than the 2 other parks which are ghost towns. Volcano Bay's activities don't require mask.

Preposterous..... If you say so.

 

[natatomic]

Preposterous...Ok sure.

Mayan Riviera/Cancun is seeing a lot of bookings and travel.......no guest mask requirement at resorts. Volcano Bay is doing OK...way, way better than the 2 other parks which are ghost towns. Volcano Bay's activities don't require mask.

Preposterous..... If you say so.

I tend to agree with you. The H2O water park is doing well, too. Much better than last summer (though it was brand new then).

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Great post. Scary times for sure. I mean, there was a stretch where "recession proof job" took on a meaning no one could even fathom. Imagine telling dentists and physician assistants making $100k-300k+ starting that theyd have hours reduced or be furloughed but the kid at McDonalds was working OT like there was no tomorrow.

And while things may have "normalized" a bit now, that deck of cards is ready to fall. People are focused on the server like you said. But they're not thinking big picture. They're not thinking of the tech company that supports that server/restaurant's payment system. The sales/marketing team who sold them that payment system. The developers and tech people who maintain that payment system. People are thinking of the housekeeper at the hotel who may get laid off. But they're also not thinking of the account manager who sells them the linens. They're not thinking of the company that sells and designs their digital menus at the restaurant. They're not thinking of the company was scheduled to supply the hotel with all the thousands of feet of trim that the hotels new location was going to need, but now that project has been canceled.

The ripple effects here are...quite terrifying.

I wonder if there will be exceptions to the rule...my husband is a flooring installer, and while his company did shut down for the mandatory closure, after two weeks, his company was able to get an exemption as an "essential business", and they've been crazy busy since about three weeks after the shut-down started. His work includes the gamut - new construction, apartments (including section 8), homes, lots of long-term care facilities (yes, the idiots running some of these places are still having outside workers come in...they never stopped), businesses, town/state buildings, schools, even boats. They actually expected a down-turn on the flooring side and alerted all the installers that they may be working on the restoration side (clean ups after floods, furnace blow-backs, bio-hazards, etc) and odd hours to boot if the flooring side of the business slowed down, but it never did...he's still been working OT (not a lot...it would be far more, but the boss doesn't want to pay OT, so they limit it and juggle jobs to avoid it).

 

[SoFloMagic]

If they don't want people coming why open at all?

So they can collect AP and DVC dues and have lots of pictures of empty parks so people equate WDW with safety.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

They don’t want people coming right now. That’s why rooms are rack rate, no free dining.. no discounts at all into next year. They will take anyone that’s willing to pay 700 bucks for a studio at OKW or SSR, if people are willing to pay that but that’s all they want in right now. It’s a different ballgame from 9/11.

No

 

[HongKongFooy]

I'm not done with the preposterous claim.......

Atlantis in Bahamas is doing just fine right now and its Cove has sold out the random days I checked.

No guest mask requirement there.

 

[Lilofan]

Great post. Scary times for sure. I mean, there was a stretch where "recession proof job" took on a meaning no one could even fathom. Imagine telling dentists and physician assistants making $100k-300k+ starting that theyd have hours reduced or be furloughed but the kid at McDonalds was working OT like there was no tomorrow.

And while things may have "normalized" a bit now, that deck of cards is ready to fall. People are focused on the server like you said. But they're not thinking big picture. They're not thinking of the tech company that supports that server/restaurant's payment system. The sales/marketing team who sold them that payment system. The developers and tech people who maintain that payment system. People are thinking of the housekeeper at the hotel who may get laid off. But they're also not thinking of the account manager who sells them the linens. They're not thinking of the company that sells and designs their digital menus at the restaurant. They're not thinking of the company was scheduled to supply the hotel with all the thousands of feet of trim that the hotels new location was going to need, but now that project has been canceled.

The ripple effects here are...quite terrifying.

Those folks furloughed or laid off that were making $100K - $300K annually and above lived that lifestyle month to month ( I know some ) . To be furloughed and making unemployment earnings is very difficult. That rainy day savings would come in handy if they had some. There may be some foreclosed homes/condos in nicer neighborhoods in the near future.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

With all this going on - if you looked at most people and said, "You know what, I'm going to Disney World!" they would look at you like you were insane. Florida is in the running for hot spot of the world, and going to such a notoriously public place as a theme park, Walt Disney World, of all places. I mean, they utterly wouldn't believe you and would think you were joking.

I suspect the above paragraph sums up the broader sentiment more than a lot of people want to acknowledge.

I'm sure there is a segment of the population who are happy to travel to Florida right now and it's very probable that there's a big overlap between this segment and those who would refuse to wear masks all day at the parks. Who knows what the overlap between these groups and the high earners Disney has been pitching themselves to in recent times, though. As long as Florida is looking like one of the global hotspots for a pandemic, how anyone can imagine tourism could rebound in any meaningful fashion before that rather large issue is resolved is beyond me. Particularly the notion that announcing they're loosening their measures against the pandemic will bring back the crowds.

 

[KIGhostGuy]

Iger is terrible for the parks, but at least he’s never killed any guests from his cheapness, unlike Eisner.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I suspect the above paragraph sums up the broader sentiment more than a lot of people want to acknowledge.

I'm sure there is a segment of the population who are happy to travel to Florida right now and it's very probable that there's a big overlap between this segment and those who would refuse to wear masks all day at the parks. Who knows what the overlap between these groups and the high earners Disney has been pitching themselves to in recent times, though. As long as Florida is looking like one of the global hotspots for a pandemic, how anyone can imagine tourism could rebound in any meaningful fashion before that rather large issue is resolved is beyond me. Particularly the notion that announcing they're loosening their measures against the pandemic will bring back the crowds.

I'm in New England, too, and I can verify the "you are insane" sentiment.

 

[Dutch Inn '76]

I'm not done with the preposterous claim.......

Atlantis in Bahamas is doing just fine right now and its Cove has sold out the random days I checked.

No guest mask requirement there.

I tend to agree with you. It's not that I'm unwilling to wear a mask; I do it daily when I'm out and about. I just don't want to do it on vacation, when I'm supposed to be having fun or relaxing.

We were booked to go to WDW in March, of course that got canceled. We then moved that trip to early July, but it got canceled as well. We turned that cancellation into a trip to Yellowstone and the Black Hills. It was wonderful! The weather was beautiful, the crowds were light, and I didn't have to wear a mask while I was gawking at Old Faithful.

Right now we have reservations at the GF for December, but I think we're going to pitch that for skiing in Breckenridge. It just sounds better right now.

So I agree that the 'Rona has hamstrung WDW, Vegas and many other pure entertainment/travel destinations. (We canceled a trip to Vegas during all of this as well!) I also agree that it'll be a looooong road back for these industries, and the people that work there will obviously go through much pain and change. This is one of the reasons I firmly believe that we as a Country need to mask up and open EVERYTHING. But I don't agree that Iger has any reason to feel disgraced. The Coronavirus would have ravaged Disney no matter who the CEO was; no matter if there was more or less IP in Epcot; no matter how many DVC hotels there were; no matter if you liked New Fantasyland or not. Bob Iger is free from blame in my eyes regarding the Coronavirus.

The only piece of his legacy that might sour is the heavy China investment, and we haven't really touched on that in this thread because it's another subject, and only slightly related to the virus. If our relationship with Beijing continues to deteriorate, then Iger will certainly be vilified for that huge miscalculation.

 

[_caleb]

People may not like all the Iger era work, but New Fantasyland, Pandora, Toy Story Land, SWGE, and Cars Land / the transformation of DCA are not small endeavors. Especially compared to the last 5 years of Eisner and first 5 years of Iger. The parks are distinctively Iger/Chapek era parks now.

Yeah, I don’t get all the hate. Disney has had hits and misses under both Eisner and Iger. Obviously, we’d all love to see them build and spend like crazy and give Imagineers total freedom. But we’ve got great stuff over the years.

BTW, I spent a LOT of time at DCA 1.0 and while I actually think they were trying to do something different with that park (not just cheap, but different). I wouldn’t say it was a success (I’m really glad for Buena Vista Street, Cartland, etc.), but I sometimes think it was misunderstood.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

People may not like all the Iger era work, but New Fantasyland, Pandora, Toy Story Land, SWGE, and Cars Land / the transformation of DCA are not small endeavors. Especially compared to the last 5 years of Eisner and first 5 years of Iger. The parks are distinctively Iger/Chapek era parks now.

Well...do be fair I wasn’t lumping Disneyland in with wdw...so that changes the story substantially.

But I think you defeated your own argument:
“People may not like them”

How could an expanded fantasy land and sections based on toy story and Star Wars get any blowback? Step back and look at it...that’s insane. But it happened.

The avatar land is great...that is an achievement.

They were conservative...too conservative...and Bob’s Investment towards his end for “legacy” only brought them slightly less behind in operations....not ahead.

The comparison in totality between he and Eisner based on what they had to work with isn’t close. Really at all.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Ahhhh that makes a lot of sense. DAK doesn’t feel cheap like DCA 1.0 etc.

That has more to do with how Rohde and Co spent their budget. They went big on what they did, even if it meant sacrificing Beastly Kingdom, Dinoland E Ticket 1.0 and later Tiger River Run.