Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[legwand77]

The current 7-day average number of deaths per day in Florida is 100. The number of deaths exceeded 100 on July 9th and from July 14-17. Keep in mind that these are undercounts, it takes several weeks for reliable death counts to be produced even under normal circumstances.

To clarify even more you are stating the current deaths reported by day is 7 day rolling at 100.

The actual death by day rolling 7 day is has never gone above 80 and is been flat for a week, at least up till when the data is current, reliable death counts

for the "Source?" people -

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=230270972343459a812a1ae8c28574a6&sublayer=0&view=list&sortOrder=true&sortField=defaultFSOrder#data

 

[Miss Bella]

Hopefully not, I have asthma and my spouse is type I diabetic. We’ll need someone to take care of the dog while we’re in mass graves waiting for proper burial.

Well that’s morbid LOL. Stay safe.

 

[legwand77]

If the sentinel monitoring data of ER visits is representative, I'd expect the case counts to come down a little over the next few days. The ED visit metrics have been dropping (even in Miami-Dade) in the past few days and a lot of the test results are delayed several days. A lot of yesterday's cases were tested early in the week so the tests from the days of the metric improvement will come in probably starting mid week.

agree and that with the serology test increasing in positivity, good indicators

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

How is any of this relevant to the thread topic?

 

[October82]

To clarify even more you are stating the current deaths reported by day is 7 day rolling at 100.

The actual death by day rolling 7 day is has never gone above 80 and is been flat for a week, at least up till when the data is current, reliable death counts

for the "Source?" people -

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=230270972343459a812a1ae8c28574a6&sublayer=0&view=list&sortOrder=true&sortField=defaultFSOrder#data

 

[October82]

OK I see that you do not understand, I gave you the link and everything

Note the title of the graph you posted. Then reread my post.

I think this exchange speaks for itself. I'd invite anyone interested in it to do as you suggest, examine the data that has been presented and ask questions about it if you feel there are concerns or places where things are unclear.

There are concerns about underreporting, but it is clear that the number of deaths in Florida due to covid-19 over the last week has averaged 100 a day, going above 100 on several days. It is likely that the most recent days will be updated to also be above 100 once all of the numbers have been reported.

The bigger question is why this is viewed as debatable. We are looking at data, not opinion pieces. If there is a discrepancy in the data, it is due to some fact about the methodology. We can talk more about it, but what is notable here is that there is a consistent pattern of trying to present only the lowest case numbers available, regardless of the quality of that data, when other reliable datasets indicate a different picture. This exchange was prompted by another poster pointing out that the average daily number of deaths due to Covid is above 100 in Florida. That was a factual statement.

 

[legwand77]

Bringing it back to when people were using AZ and TX rise in hospitalizations as a bellweather for Florida and Disney closing, Today those states have continued to decrease in number of covid patients , the trend is continues. Hope Florida follows suite as they were running about a week or so behind those states.

 

[legwand77]

I think this exchange speaks for itself. I'd invite anyone interested in it to do as you suggest, examine the data that has been presented and ask questions about it if you feel there are concerns or places where things are unclear.

There are concerns about underreporting, but it is clear that the number of deaths in Florida due to covid-19 over the last week has averaged 100 a day, going above 100 on several days. It is likely that the most recent days will be updated to also be above 100 once all of the numbers have been reported.

The bigger question is why this is viewed as debatable. We are looking at data, not opinion pieces. If there is a discrepancy in the data, it is due to some fact about the methodology. We can talk more about it, but what is notable here is that there is a consistent pattern of trying to present only the lowest case numbers available, regardless of the quality of that data, when other reliable datasets indicate a different picture. This exchange was prompted by another poster pointing out that the average daily number of deaths due to Covid is above 100 in Florida. That was a factual statement.

Yes the exchange does speak for itself. Now you are going back to opinions and theories. There is not a single day were actual deaths that happened that day (not when reported) have gone over 100 at this time. That is an absolute fact. There is currently no data that shows day of death is at 100 or over.

The under reporting is a theory and a concern, but so is overcounting, with Covids etc. but that is not point. The rest is just your opinion and creating some agenda about whatever.

Like I said, the factual statement is the average "reported" daily number of deaths due to Covid is above 100 in Florida. The actual people that die that day is less than that and has never gone above or near 100.

Are you saying that is not true?

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Bringing it back to when people were using AZ and TX rise in hospitalizations as a bellweather for Florida and Disney closing, Those sates have continued to decrease in number of covid patients , the trend is continues. Hope Florida follows suite as the were running about a week or so behind those states.

These two states are not improving much. Keep in mind standards for being admitted have changed, and the capacity to admit people has decreased.

 

[Miss Bella]

These two states are not improving much. Keep in mind standards for being admitted have changed, and the capacity to admit people has decreased.

What are the new standards to be admitted?

 

[oceanbreeze77]

What are the new standards to be admitted?

many hospitals prioritizing admitting the most dire cases. Remember that triage conversation we had?

Also Texas has just brought in the Navy to help.

 

[Miss Bella]

many hospitals prioritizing admitting the most dire cases. Remember that triage conversation we had?

Also Texas has just brought in the Navy to help.

Do you actually have proof that this is occurring at any hospital in Arizona.

 

[October82]

Yes the exchange does speak for itself. Now you are going back to opinions and theories. There is not a single day were actual deaths that happened that day (not when reported) have gone over 100 at this time. That is an absolute fact. There is currently no data that shows day of death is at 100 or over.

Except in the data that I posted which shows exactly that. Since I am not interested in needless internet arguments, I was curious about differences in the data collection methodologies and looked at the underlying data sources used to generate these figures. Although the New York Times Covid tracker number is discrepant with the numbers you posted, this is because the number you posted is a subset of the NY Times data that also includes deaths reported to local governments. Again, this is factual and not a matter of opinion.

There is a factual difference in methodology which has led to slightly different absolute numbers representing similar trends. The whole point of responding to the 100 number was to simply point out that the original person you responded to and tried to correct had, in fact, shared a number that is credible and available from a source with good data practices. What ultimately matters here is the overall trends, which as we should all agree by now, are not good.

The really important point here is that, when you're interested in understanding an unfamiliar dataset, the steps you take are to understand how it was collected and how reliable it is. This is very different to what you do if you already know the point you want to make before you do the research - where if you've concluded in advance that the number must be low, you find a source you agree with and post only that link.

The under reporting is a theory and a concern, but so is overcounting, with Covids etc. but that is not point. The rest is just your opinion and creating some agenda about whatever.

There is a very large body of evidence that undercounting occurs, especially in the day to day data. is because of time lags and (when it comes to cases) failures in the adequacy of testing. There is a wide variety of scientific literature (not news media articles) which measure the degree of undercounting, so that the public health response can be better managed. We know undercounting is a problem, while over counting is not.

Like I said, the factual statement is the average "reported" daily number of deaths due to Covid is above 100 in Florida. The actual people that die that day is less than that and has never gone above or near 100.

Are you saying that is not true?

That is incorrect, yes.

"Reported" in this case means reported to government agencies/listed as cause of death/etc. not "reported" as in, "news reporter".

 

[carolina_yankee]

I agree with legwand77 that Florida is probably not experiencing 100 or more reported deaths per day, but I would have to add a *yet.* I’m not on Team Legwand77 overall, but I see the point being argued.

If Florida reports 156 deaths due to Covid on a particular day, of which 80+ are from the specific previous day and the remains 70ish are from multiple previous days, that’s true. That happens in NJ all the time. Governor reported 32 deaths a few days ago, but said the majority were backfilling all the way to April with only 14 of that daily total reported deaths having occurred in July.

To me, where the argument fails is that “reported deaths” are increasing, and we have no reason to supposed that yesterday’s deaths won’t be backfilled to be an actual higher number.

I still have to say, compared to NJ and NY when we were at our peaks, even the increasing numbers of daily reported deaths in FL is lower than our daily reported deaths at our peaks. I pray that continues, but I don’t think it means anything is “safer.” Reported deaths are increasing and we don’t know where they will stop, and we don’t know what kind of long-term health affects are going to haunt those dramatically increasing numbers of infected. Those daily new cases are more than twice as many as we experienced in NJ at our peak for a population that is about twice as high as NJ. And we were hit hard.

I’m still not on Team Shut-it-all-down, though, but I am on Team-Stop-Being-an-Idiot when it comes to certain behaviors that are keeping Florida’s numbers high. One only hopes that the increased emphasis on behavior and the shutting down of certian things a couple of weeks ago will start to show in declining cases in the next week or two.

In teams of WDW itself, I would like be there if there weren’t quarantines in either direction, but it’s probably a good thing that there are. We simply can’t let things slip up here and go back to where we were.

 

[easyrowrdw]

How is any of this relevant to the thread topic?

Indeed. I gave up on the actual Coronavirus thread because it was just this ad nauseum.

 

[legwand77]

Except in the data that I posted which shows exactly that. Since I am not interested in needless internet arguments, I was curious about differences in the data collection methodologies and looked at the underlying data sources used to generate these figures. Although the New York Times Covid tracker number is discrepant with the numbers you posted, this is because the number you posted is a subset of the NY Times data that also includes deaths reported to local governments. Again, this is factual and not a matter of opinion.

There is a factual difference in methodology which has led to slightly different absolute numbers representing similar trends. The whole point of responding to the 100 number was to simply point out that the original person you responded to and tried to correct had, in fact, shared a number that is credible and available from a source with good data practices. What ultimately matters here is the overall trends, which as we should all agree by now, are not good.

The really important point here is that, when you're interested in understanding an unfamiliar dataset, the steps you take are to understand how it was collected and how reliable it is. This is very different to what you do if you already know the point you want to make before you do the research - where if you've concluded in advance that the number must be low, you find a source you agree with and post only that link.



There is a very large body of evidence that undercounting occurs, especially in the day to day data. is because of time lags and (when it comes to cases) failures in the adequacy of testing. There is a wide variety of scientific literature (not news media articles) which measure the degree of undercounting, so that the public health response can be better managed. We know undercounting is a problem, while over counting is not.



That is incorrect, yes.

"Reported" in this case means reported to government agencies/listed as cause of death/etc. not "reported" as in, "news reporter".

My link and dataset is from the CDC and state government report. For someone so concerned about datasets I thought you would realize that

 

[October82]

My link and dataset is from the CDC and state government report. For someone so concerned about datasets I thought you would realize that

Yes, and I do care about data and understanding what it means. I understood that your link was to a Florida government dataset for Covid 19 related deaths. As before, I think this exchange speaks for itself and doesn't need to be elaborated on further.

If you want to use the numbers from the Florida website as a way to inform your thinking, just make sure and take into account the limits of that data compared to more comprehensive sources that others might be using.

 

[hopemax]

To clarify even more you are stating the current deaths reported by day is 7 day rolling at 100.

The actual death by day rolling 7 day is has never gone above 80 and is been flat for a week, at least up till when the data is current, reliable death counts

for the "Source?" people -

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=230270972343459a812a1ae8c28574a6&sublayer=0&view=list&sortOrder=true&sortField=defaultFSOrder#data

So the question is are there 4 more deaths for 7/7 still to be recorded? 9 more deaths for 7/6? 20 more deaths for 7/11 or 7/12?

 

[Chef Mickey]

What in the world could possibly be your point?

Um, that cases are continuously hammered by the media and they aren't super important if other metrics are trending downward and you consider the testing environment is different today than 3 months ago?

"Record cases" has a good media ring, but requires deeper analysis.

No one is "minimizing" the effect of the virus. We are trying not to be irrational and maintain some objectivity and perspective. This is not even close to the #1 risk to public health. This really sucks. I'm not one to say it doesn't, but life will go on and has to. Wear a mask, take precautions and live your life.

The problem now is people refusing to wear masks correctly or at all. If they did, this virus probably wouldn't even be a major story anymore. That is unfortunate.

 

[legwand77]

So the question is are there 4 more deaths for 7/7 still to be recorded? 9 more deaths for 7/6? 20 more deaths for 7/11 or 7/12?

Yes that could be the case, but the trends shows that most deaths are only backfilled and spread out to not affect the numbers on any given day that much. It also appears that the excess deaths that were unaccounted for are diminishing so there are not as many to back date any more. The past two weeks there was a jump in backfilled deaths because of the loosing of the death with Covid classification that happened in mid June. Once CDC loosened that classification they were able to work through the excess deaths and code them correctly, hence the jump in backfilled deaths the past few weeks. Now the number of unclassified deaths are lower the amount of backfills death will decrease.