Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[George]

A well done illustration on how you can spin facts to make a point. Notice on the flu vs. COVID-19 death chart, they have US data for the flu and then throw a giant line of COVID-19 death's WORLDWIDE. Sleight of hand that David Copperfield would be proud of!

The (possibly contagious) pre-symptomatic graphic is also an illustration of this. While it is stating a fact, the fact is already accounted for in the Ro discussion earlier. Using this graphic later in the video implies that it spreads more easily than they already talked about.

Same with the lack of immunity animation. That animation also makes it look like everybody exposed will develop an infection which is not true even without immunity. There needs to be a critical mass of virus transferred for the transferee to develop an infection.

The hospitalization percentage for COVID-19 is completely wrong. Even without considering asymptomatics in the equation it is under 20% and nowhere near the 30% they quote. They credit CDC for the flu hospitalization data but don't cite any source for COVID-19 (the CDC has not published any data on hospitalization rate).

So yes, it is a very well done video that shows how you can mix facts with predictions and spin something that nobody disputes (that COVID-19 is worse than the flu) and make it as scary as possible to justify "social distancing" actions.

Per instructions from @themom, I'm not posting this to argue about the measures taken, I'm just commenting on how media can (and do) spin facts to turn reports into editorials.

They say very clearly that they’re showing worldwide deaths from covid-19 versus US deaths from the flu and why you shouldn’t take that much comfort from that. Sleight of hand implies trying to hide something.

 

[monykalyn]

The National Hurricane Weather Center has predicted another busy hurricane season this summer. Hurricane season is June 1-Nov 1. In the past before the hurricane approaching, residents rushed to the stores to stock pile on goods, buy items to protect their homes, search for a gas station that actually had gas. All this while most of us were employed and had income. It is a whole new ballgame now. We are setting aside canned food, TP, bottled water etc now because if this covid19 last through the summer, that's hurricane season from FL, TX, LA all the way up the Northeast coast.

. I hope the worst of this is over before hurricane season ramps up! We are in the height of tornado season here now. And so the discussion is stay in (potential) tornado path vs going to a shelter? Many without tornado shelters in homes. In my little ‘burb our old neighborhood southern end got wiped out with an F2-3 several years ago, included old city hall (at the time in a trailer) and the old fire station. When new fire station built it was built to withstand tornadoes and also big enough to be designated as a community shelter. So right now mayor is saying to go to the shelter unless obviously sick, and then to have a plan for them JIC. After the F5 leveled Joplin MO a few years back most would rather take the chance in a shelter vs going up against that again. (Joplin is an hour from me and many in the community assisted in days/weeks after).

Total US cases without all of NY state is still greater than any other country in the world.

. It’s helpful to look at cases per population percentage. US went from 5 deaths per 1 mil population to 25 today (in less than a week), Italy and Spain are in the 200’s per million population. USA is also drastically ramping up in testing too.

I’m having a hard time picturing any restaurants in or out of Disney opening up if 1) masks required (ok to take off to eat - so do you hang around neck? Carry spares so you can put clean one on after eating? Because once you touch it to surface wouldn’t it potentially be contaminated? 2) social distancing- how would the place be able to turn a profit with drastically reduced number of patrons/tables allowed? Rent wouldn’t go down, food costs wouldn’t go down that much etc. Hoping the treatments are effective and herd immunity is higher than currently thought.

 

[Lilofan]

The truth is everyone, sometimets we do have to blink and take a deep breath when we can. We live in a world where numbers are instant, projections are shared faster than ever before and our experts can use them for good, and we can use them just to worry about something we as a world do not know that much about yet. In the weeks that this exploded so much more is known. It takes time and it is tragic for those that lose their lives, but don't let it let you be cynical. This includes myself. I apologize to those I have snapped at on this forum. Find a neighbor who needs service. Maybe you have some supplies or goods you can place on their doorstep of things they do not have. Disinfect as you see fit before and they can let it sit in their corner to give it time or clean it again themselves before use. If you are out for a walk and see someone, ask or take some time to clean up someone's yard if it seems to be something they are not able to do.
I have seen my neighbors more than I ever have and probably ever will again once the tides change.

We 've been in touch with friends and relatives now more than ever because of what's going on. We have all been all humbled in that many things in our lives that we can control, improve, change are now out of our hands. Even the thought of conversing with people in person is met at times with fear and the unknown. This covid19 has humbled us to our knees. Our lives and our thinking for me and my family will forever be changed moving forward. Some may need mental health assistance and if that's the case then they should get it when possible.

 

[DisneyCane]

They say very clearly that they’re showing worldwide deaths from covid-19 versus US deaths from the flu and why you shouldn’t take that much comfort from that. Sleight of hand implies trying to hide something.

If you aren't trying to mislead you don't compare apples to oranges on the same chart. Why not use WHO data for worldwide flu death estimates an compare apples to apples? They are using the graphic to put a picture in the viewer's mind regardless of narration.

It would be like Disney presenting a chart of their theme park revenue and then projecting the current year of total theme park revenue for all operators combined on the same chart.

 

[Doberge]

Trump reportedly had a conference call with major league sports commissioners. On the call Trump says "he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources said, though it is currently unclear if medical experts find that to be a realistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic."

Sources: Trump says NFL should start on time

President Donald Trump told the commissioners of 12 major sports that he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources told ESPN.

www.espn.com

While I understand there are some things Disney is considering to reduce transmission risks, it feels like theme parks and sports attendance by fans are close enough that they would occur around the same time. It seems a summer opening for Disney is still more unlikely than likely.

Or maybe not. How close do yall think timelines of sports with fans and theme parks are? Similar? Very different?

 

[DisneyCane]

If they restrict the opening to on site guests only they could administer the Abbot fast test upon check in and prevent the bottleneck getting into the parks. Granted the parks would not be at full capacity but initially wouldn't that be best

You'd have to forbid leaving the hotel except for direct transportation to the parks to guarantee no infection from check in to park visit. Basically magical Disney jail.

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m having a hard time picturing any restaurants in or out of Disney opening up if 1) masks required (ok to take off to eat - so do you hang around neck? Carry spares so you can put clean one on after eating? Because once you touch it to surface wouldn’t it potentially be contaminated? 2) social distancing- how would the place be able to turn a profit with drastically reduced number of patrons/tables allowed? Rent wouldn’t go down, food costs wouldn’t go down that much etc. Hoping the treatments are effective and herd immunity is higher than currently thought.

The general public wearing masks isn‘t to keep you from getting infected it is intended to keep you from infecting others. If they have some other way to effectively ensure infected people aren’t in the parks and restaurants at all then they have to assume everyone (even people with no symptoms) are infected and need them all to wear a mask to keep from infecting others. Eating is not a problem as long as the tables are spaced out.

 

[Rich Brownn]

I think the flu comparisons are fair. I think it is important to compare this virus to many others in an attempt to better understand the potential of the outbreak. r0 is very important, but SARS has an r0 in the 2-5 range and it didn't infect millions. If you search the internet for the r0 of corona you will find that it is all over the place. I've seen as low as 1.3 and as high as 6.5. Dr. Fauci himself published a paper where he suggests this will be comparable to a serious seasonal flu outbreak similar to 1957 or 1968.
I'm not trying to suggest how serious this virus is, but rather that we should look at as much information as possible. I think we should take it very seriously. We shouldn't, on the other hand, cower in our homes for months on end and completely destroy the economy as this probably isn't necessary. We have to learn how we can thread the needle of making educated decisions to evaluate the risks of our behaviors going forward.
I'm hoping we can have expanded testing very soon so we can find out those who have already been infected but have recovered. If I happen to be one of those I will be back at WDW as soon as it is open.

SARS, like EBOLA, didn't spread as fast because its so lethal. It literally kills the hosts before it has a chance to infect other a lot of the time.

 

[Lilofan]

Trump reportedly had a conference call with major league sports commissioners. On the call Trump says "he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources said, though it is currently unclear if medical experts find that to be a realistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic."

Sources: Trump says NFL should start on time

President Donald Trump told the commissioners of 12 major sports that he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources told ESPN.

www.espn.com

While I understand there are some things Disney is considering to reduce transmission risks, it feels like theme parks and sports attendance by fans are close enough that they would occur around the same time. It seems a summer opening for Disney is still more unlikely than likely.

Or maybe not. How close do yall think timelines of sports with fans and theme parks are? Similar? Very different?

In regards to the coronavirus and social distancing , WDW has a number of facilities and employ a number of cast strictly to work at ESPN down the road from Art of Animation. Much thought and processes on how do do business in ESPN and theme parks in regards to social distancing when the venues eventually open.

 

[DisneyCane]

SARS, like EBOLA, didn't spread as fast because its so lethal. It literally kills the hosts before it has a chance to infect other a lot of the time.

Also, it was relatively easy to find and quarantine those who were infected because everybody would have at least a somewhat severe illness.

 

[DisneyCane]

Trump reportedly had a conference call with major league sports commissioners. On the call Trump says "he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources said, though it is currently unclear if medical experts find that to be a realistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic."

Sources: Trump says NFL should start on time

President Donald Trump told the commissioners of 12 major sports that he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources told ESPN.

www.espn.com

While I understand there are some things Disney is considering to reduce transmission risks, it feels like theme parks and sports attendance by fans are close enough that they would occur around the same time. It seems a summer opening for Disney is still more unlikely than likely.

Or maybe not. How close do yall think timelines of sports with fans and theme parks are? Similar? Very different?

Either there will able to be fans in June or not until the 2021 season. Once we reach the tail of the curve, which will hopefully happen my mid-May, nothing is going to be different between then and September. Either it will be containable with widespread testing and contact tracing or it won't. Two more months won't change anything.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

A more accurate comparison is the US to all of Western Europe, which is roughly the same size population I believe. Less by a third maybe? Not sure. But look at the number of cases there total.

Western Europe is less than by about 10,000,000 if I recall correctly...I think we both saw the same article/video that talked about this.

 

[ElvisMickey]

Let’s ponder...what would Walt think about the Corona in general and how Disney can come up with a solution #EPCOT?!

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

How close do yall think timelines of sports with fans and theme parks are? Similar? Very different?

You can't "watch" a theme park on TV. I'd (totally my opinion) think parks would come first. But on the other side of the equation depending on the sport - I could I see an NBA arena with 5,000 fans holding a game before a park opened? So my answer is - "I don't know"

 

[marni1971]

Trump reportedly had a conference call with major league sports commissioners. On the call Trump says "he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources said, though it is currently unclear if medical experts find that to be a realistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic."

Sources: Trump says NFL should start on time

President Donald Trump told the commissioners of 12 major sports that he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources told ESPN.

www.espn.com

While I understand there are some things Disney is considering to reduce transmission risks, it feels like theme parks and sports attendance by fans are close enough that they would occur around the same time. It seems a summer opening for Disney is still more unlikely than likely.

Or maybe not. How close do yall think timelines of sports with fans and theme parks are? Similar? Very different?

It’s no secret, without getting political, that Mr Trump tends to say things before he has the facts. I wouldn’t read anything into it.

 

[The_Jobu]

View attachment 460880

My goodness is that donkey ever adorable.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What do the US national numbers, curves and models look like minus NYC area?

I’m not saying NYC doesn’t matter..of course our largest city does. Many people have died. But it still seems to be an outlier compared to the rest of the country, even compared to other areas that are highly infected.

Well...I know New York is in the US. So I can’t wrap my brain around “separating” it out in any way. Something about NYC being the largest and most important city in the country does that to me.

I’m interested in the projections and models for the rest of the country. I think it will eventually matter when we get into May...

Also, China has the most cases worldwide no matter what they tell us...but, whatever, doesn’t matter...well it kind of does if we use their inadequate data.

We shall see. The lack of national approach may prove to be a disaster upon a disaster...or more blind luck in the circus.

Texas currently has 90 deaths. That is quite a jump. I wonder if that accounts for the fact that most major cities there extended their shelter in place orders to April 30th.

I would say that qualifies as wishful thinking...and Doesn’t change the correct course of action.

Florida doesn’t have a “huge” number...but not only did they fail to act effectively, they encouraged spread and sent it to other places...it’s been documented.

So I think it’s too early know exactly where the line is gonna end up. Hopefully lower than projections, everywhere...and in that case: great.

If you aren't trying to mislead you don't compare apples to oranges on the same chart. Why not use WHO data for worldwide flu death estimates an compare apples to apples? They are using the graphic to put a picture in the viewer's mind regardless of narration.

It would be like Disney presenting a chart of their theme park revenue and then projecting the current year of total theme park revenue for all operators combined on the same chart.

Need to ease back on the throttle...

It’s no secret, without getting political, that Mr Trump tends to say things before he has the facts. I wouldn’t read anything into it.

That may just be the “understatement of the millennium”....and yes, I know we have about 980 years still to go...

 

[GoofGoof]

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Florida doesn’t have a “huge” number...but not only did they fail to act effectively, they encouraged spread and sent it to other places...it’s been documented.

It's kinda been like the "perfect storm" if you will. Yes. Culpability on the state not having a unified stance. Bars and restaurants not closing soon enough. Not closing the beaches for the Spring Breakers. Indecision on what orders to issue and when - But........ The Cruise Lines weren't necessarily our fault.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's kinda been like the "perfect storm" if you will. Yes. Culpability on the state not having a unified stand. Bars and restaurants not closing soon enough. Not closing the beaches for the Spring Breakers. Indecision on what orders to issue and when - But........ The Cruise Lines weren't necessarily our fault.

It was not the Cruise lines I was talking about...That’s always a “lose/lose” for the ships and the ports on outbreaks...

I was talking about sticking to the “I’m not telling people what to do...” when a person’s one job is to tell people what to do for the good of the whole.

Welcome to REAL life!