Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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thecouch

Active Member
This is a catastrophic update after a catastrophic week for the cruise lines. What do we think Disney’s reaction will be? It’s hard to imagine DCL can continue operations when the state department advises people not to board, world class cleanliness or not.
The only thing they could do is make a deal with the government for guarantee Port if there were cases on board. That's the biggest worry if one person gets sick and they won't let you leave like the one off califorina then eventually majority will get it.
 

Crunchie9

Well-Known Member
Who is they? China? I thought things were ramping up again over there after a period of extreme shutdowns.
That being said (https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:70.3/centery:10.0/zoom:2)

1583718928144.png
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I read on reddit (take it for what its worth) that the higher ups were paying their plant managers to run electricity in the plants to appear that they were manufacturing again.
Also, a man died his first day back to work because of COVID-19. (i have been citing everything today and im tired and starting to get lazy for the less important stuff) lol

Too many people saying its "just the flu"
Must be true if someone posted it on reddit ;)
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
I read on reddit (take it for what its worth) that the higher ups were paying their plant managers to run electricity in the plants to appear that they were manufacturing again.
Also, a man died his first day back to work because of COVID-19. (i have been citing everything today and im tired and starting to get lazy for the less important stuff) lol

Too many people saying its "just the flu"
The virus being just like a flu is probably closer to reality than the reaction we are seeing.

It’s killing the same kind of people the flu does. A larger breakout would likely see death rates drop dramatically and is only artificially high because of the relatively small number of cases.

We deal with incurable viruses every day. This one isn’t much different other than this being new and frankly overhyped by the media.
 

Crunchie9

Well-Known Member
The virus being just like a flu is probably closer to reality than the reaction we are seeing.

It’s killing the same kind of people the flu does. A larger breakout would likely see death rates drop dramatically and is only artificially high because of the relatively small number of cases.

We deal with incurable viruses every day. This one isn’t much different other than this being new and frankly overhyped by the media.

According to the NEJM (look at table three) for fatality rates.

Its not just the elderly.

41.3% of Severe illnesses occur in the 15-49 demographic (keep in mind the other ranges are 15 years, and this one is nearly double that.

Also, 80% of people infected are NON SMOKERS. I just found that interesting, because I originally heard it was going after smokers.

covid19a.JPG


covid19b.JPG
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Donald John Trump on February 27 at the White House
"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear,"

At least quote the full transcript which I finally found. He never said it was going to magically disappear in a month.

Transcript follows.

"With what we’re talking about now with the virus, we can’t do that. We have to do it differently. If we’re doing a great job, we should congratulate these professionals that are the best in the world.


And you know what? If we were doing a bad job, we should also be criticized. But we have done an incredible job. We’re going to continue. It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear. And from our shores, we — you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We’ll see what happens. Nobody really knows.


The fact is, the greatest experts — I’ve spoken to them all. Nobody really knows. But we have done and our professionals have done a fantastic job. We’re working with other countries. We’re trying to help some other countries. A couple of them have gotten hit pretty hard. South Korea and Italy, in particular. They’ve been hit pretty hard. And it’ll all work out. And I just want to thank all of the people that have worked with us in government and some of these great professionals because they have been incredible — the job.


To think of it — with all of what you see going on — 15 people. We brought in the others, but — and they’re doing good. But 15 people is almost, I would say, a miracle."
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
According to the NEJM (look at table three) for fatality rates.

Its not just the elderly.

41.3% of Severe illnesses occur in the 15-49 demographic (keep in mind the other ranges are 15 years, and this one is nearly double that.

Also, 80% of people infected are NON SMOKERS. I just found that interesting, because I originally heard it was going after smokers.

View attachment 454942

View attachment 454941

Can you link to the study? Some of these tables are too hard to read on the forum due to the size. Regarding smokers, I don't think it has been suggested that it infects smokers easier. It has been suggested that smokers have more severe illness when infected and higher mortality rates. This theory is due to somewhere around 50% of males in China being smokers. I don't think this theory is proven one way or the other yet.
 

Crunchie9

Well-Known Member
Can you link to the study? Some of these tables are too hard to read on the forum due to the size. Regarding smokers, I don't think it has been suggested that it infects smokers easier. It has been suggested that smokers have more severe illness when infected and higher mortality rates. This theory is due to somewhere around 50% of males in China being smokers. I don't think this theory is proven one way or the other yet.

Sorry about the crappy snip



I think I misinterpreted what NEJM said, I think the smoker's percentage was for each level of severity (in line with what you are saying) as it grows as you move left to right.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
At least quote the full transcript which I finally found. He never said it was going to magically disappear in a month.

Transcript follows.

"With what we’re talking about now with the virus, we can’t do that. We have to do it differently. If we’re doing a great job, we should congratulate these professionals that are the best in the world.


And you know what? If we were doing a bad job, we should also be criticized. But we have done an incredible job. We’re going to continue. It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear. And from our shores, we — you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We’ll see what happens. Nobody really knows.


The fact is, the greatest experts — I’ve spoken to them all. Nobody really knows. But we have done and our professionals have done a fantastic job. We’re working with other countries. We’re trying to help some other countries. A couple of them have gotten hit pretty hard. South Korea and Italy, in particular. They’ve been hit pretty hard. And it’ll all work out. And I just want to thank all of the people that have worked with us in government and some of these great professionals because they have been incredible — the job.


To think of it — with all of what you see going on — 15 people. We brought in the others, but — and they’re doing good. But 15 people is almost, I would say, a miracle."
Gotta love when people take a small piece of something someone said and twist it to fit their own purpose.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
According to the NEJM (look at table three) for fatality rates.

Its not just the elderly.

41.3% of Severe illnesses occur in the 15-49 demographic (keep in mind the other ranges are 15 years, and this one is nearly double that.

Also, 80% of people infected are NON SMOKERS. I just found that interesting, because I originally heard it was going after smokers.

View attachment 454942

View attachment 454941
Dude, look at the sample sizes they are using. It’s almost meaningless to quote these numbers and extrapolate them, as I said.

I may be wrong, but I doubt it. This is the flu, maybe slightly worse
 

Crunchie9

Well-Known Member
Dude, look at the sample sizes they are using. It’s almost meaningless to quote these numbers and extrapolate them, as I said.

I may be wrong, but I doubt it. This is the flu, maybe slightly worse
over 1000 people, and its peer-reviewed by doctors, written for doctors. I mean I can bring you to the source, but i cant force you to drink the water.

They are the subject matter experts, not me. Im just a data analyst.

 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Not to bring up the “boogeyman” of the economy again. But the price of oil collapsed over the weekend..:.asian markets already sold off today...and the automatic cutoff mechanisms in futures on the American markets kicked in.

All these things might be considered “bad” for any company operating in travel or peddling sweatshop merchandise - just saying.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
over 1000 people, and its peer-reviewed by doctors, written for doctors. I mean I can bring you to the source, but i cant force you to drink the water.

They are the subject matter experts, not me. Im just a data analyst.

High level, mild cases aren’t reported...dead people are. I’m an analyst too and appreciate the data, but the same thing happened with SARS and MERS...death rates went down over time. It also makes sense based on my first sentence.

I absolutely respect the info you posted. I just don’t think it will stand up over time.
 

Crunchie9

Well-Known Member
High level, mild cases aren’t reported...dead people are. I’m an analyst too and appreciate the data, but the same thing happened with SARS and MERS...death rates went down over time. It also makes sense based on my first sentence.

I absolutely respect the info you posted. I just don’t think it will stand up over time.
Well, let's hope that South Korea is the norm and Iran and Italy are the outliers.

Im tired (Day light savings)
 

techgeek

Well-Known Member
Ok data analysts... Check out this model written by a fellow data analyst and tell me if this is alarming, or why it's not:


In my interpretation it illustrates exactly why China and Italy have both taken the measure they have, and it illustrates that we will eventually be forced to follow with significant travel and gathering restrictions.
 

Yodascousin

Active Member
South Korea’s cases continue to drop the lowest for 2 weeks...also rumours that Shanghai Disneyland is going to partially reopen
 

A Noble Fish

Well-Known Member
South Korea’s cases continue to drop the lowest for 2 weeks...also rumours that Shanghai Disneyland is going to partially reopen
That's due to extremely effective and invasive measures. Not doing anything, or too little will lead it to explode to flu levels based on all current evidence. How far are we willing to go?
 

thecouch

Active Member
I think South Korea death rates are lower then any where because they tested more. Just like the flu if a person doesn't get tested or treated they don't count in stats. South Korea had drive thru testing stations.plus a good health system
 
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