Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

[Nirya]

Also remember that actual testing kits were in low supply until just very recently. The more people you test a day might increase known cases, but also lower the percentage amount of the amount of positive cases found, due to testing earlier in the disease cycle.

Actual testing kits were in low supply because the CDC decided to try to make their own kits rather than use the WHO ones that were already made and proven to work. The CDC kits then proved to be unreliable, and only now are we starting to see CDC-approved tests that actually work as intended.

In the rest of the world, the amount of testing kits were fine. The issue with counting is similar to flu, in that a lot of people only get mild symptoms and so do not end up needing to go to the hospital, and thus never get tested.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Look, my life consists of attending a lot of events and meetings, some small, some large.

I have not adjusted my schedule, some have become video conferences, but not many. I already work at home in a dedicated office.

I still attend sports event, I am still planning to take my big trip in June to Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

If I get flu like symptoms, I will stay home and make a Doctor's appointment. I have always washed my hands, and will continue to do so. I was in the Restaurant Business and learned proper healthy safety protocols. I try and not do stupid things.

Now, I might think about a Cruise Ship trip, or heading to Italy to see the Pope and watch Soccer, but not on the schedule.

My biggest worry, the Homeless Situation in California. We really need to get these folks into proper shelters and making sure they wash and other things. That is for their good, and the public health's good, and we might need an emergency declaration to get it done.

We need to use common sense and practice safe ways to try and reduce the spread, but still go on living our life. Being afraid and becoming a hermit isn't really a life. Yes, when I feel ill, I tend to become a hermit and let my body heal, but that is short term.

I have a small container of Hand Sanitizer in my bag, and a very large one to refill it. I checked it, and it is almost full. But if I am in Costco, and they have some, I might pick up ONE bottle as a spare.

I have always kept at least a 2 week supply of my meds, I usually get 90 days at a time, and use Kaiser's delivery option when I see it running low.

I know these large events are getting a lot of pressure to close, but all of us are watching and listening to the CDC. If they say things need to be scaled down or temporarily suspended, well, that is the right source to make the call.

But I am doing my thing, and have no desire to wear a mask. Never liked them for Halloween....

 

[TP2000]

My biggest worry, the Homeless Situation in California. We really need to get these folks into proper shelters and making sure they wash and other things. That is for their good, and the public health's good, and we might need an emergency declaration to get it done.

Agreed! I was fascinated yesterday by Gavin Newsom's blunt statement that he "wasn't allowing" the Grand Princess cruise ship to dock in San Francisco because there are people on board with flu-like symptoms. He will wait for the Coast Guard to helicopter back the Covid 19 test kits from the ship today before he decides whether he will allow the ship to dock in a California port. I was not aware that a state Governor can decide whether or not a ship docks in a port, but I guess as the state leader he or she has that ability. Interesting to learn that!

And I'm thinking.... Uh, Gavin? Have you seen what downtown San Francisco looks and smells like now? And you've been fine with thousands of homeless living in that city like that for years, but now this cruise ship is forbidden? The mind boggles on how that logic process works for him.

This is so interesting and entertaining to watch play out in real time!

 

[DrAlice]

Personal Plot Twist!!

Two coworkers were on the cruise ship with the man that died yesterday. They're not exhibiting symptoms, but were asked to go home for self quarantine. It is unclear whether the county will be testing them (I assume so). While I did not work with these two people directly, I do work very closely with someone who shares an office with them. So there's that. :/

I am continuing to wash my hands, and I'm absolutely not going to visit my parents any time soon. In the meantime, to calm my nerves:

 

[BrianLo]

Still waiting those sources that say it's peaked...

I also always make sure to include my raw numbers as well as percentages, rather than misleading by only stating percentages, Mr Spin.

Only one of us brought up a cherry picked percentage, I was being facetious in retort to prove a point. Apparently sarcasm is lost on the internet.

Here you go! Please don’t tell me to exclude China, but go ahead and explain it away.

 

[TP2000]

Personal Plot Twist!!

Two coworkers were on the cruise ship with the man that died yesterday. They're not exhibiting symptoms, but were asked to go home for self quarantine. It is unclear whether the county will be testing them (I assume so). While I did not work with these two people directly, I do work very closely with someone who shares an office with them. So there's that. :/

I am continuing to wash my hands, and I'm absolutely not going to visit my parents any time soon. In the meantime, to calm my nerves:

View attachment 454177

I am baffled by the toilet paper and water thing. What do these people think is going to happen even if they get Coronavirus and have flu-like symptoms? The city water supply will be shut off? This virus does not cause gastro-intestinal issues, so what is all the toilet paper for? Are they going to quarantine themselves and decorate a parade float in their garage with all that TP?

I'm honestly so confused by that.

 

[George Lucas on a Bench]

Seems you'd be better off buying baby wipes.

 

[Curious Constance]

I have an exam anyways this month. The big one. So I endorse a break!



Asking one to disregard China: where the Coronavirus started and the majority of active cases still are, where the majority of discharges are now occurring... IS SPIN! If the active disease burden is increasing globally, why have you asked me to disregard more than 80% of all the diagnosed cases?

Here are the recent new diagnosed figures in chronological order specific to South Korea: 505, 517, 813, 586, 599, 851, 435, 467 (March 5th).

It’s super easy to massage raw data to fit an agenda. While you have informed us there are 10% more diagnosis in South Korea, you have left out the sexy spin that >50% more recovered cases have been reported now in South Korea - than when I went to bed!

Good luck!!!

 

[flutas]

Only one of us brought up a cherry picked percentage, I was being facetious in retort to prove a point. Apparently sarcasm is lost on the internet.

View attachment 454187

Here you go! Please don’t tell me to exclude China, but go ahead and explain it away.

South Korea new Dx rates have definitely peaked. Evidence suggests Italy and Iran may be at their inflection points as well.

Stilll waitingggggg... since you claimed SK, Italy and Iran have peaked, and your screenshot doesn't prove that.

Please exclude china, since you claimed these three specific countries peaked...

I'll be waiting...

Aren't you also the one who said the parks should be open in 2-4 weeks, or "4-6 weeks at the high end?"

Extrapolating SARs, 4-6 weeks at the high end. Which was still a more aggressive coronavirus.

But neither Castle park is actually in the major affected province. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see them come back online in 2-4 weeks.

Here we are exactly 6 weeks later with both parks still shuttered, and an additional park closed since then.

 

[Tinkwings]

I am baffled by the toilet paper and water thing. What do these people think is going to happen even if they get Coronavirus and have flu-like symptoms? The city water supply will be shut off? This virus does not cause gastro-intestinal issues, so what is all the toilet paper for? Are they going to quarantine themselves and decorate a parade float in their garage with all that TP?

I'm honestly so confused by that.

Maybe just maybe its not wanting to run out of it while they are shuttered up in their home afraid to leave...…. Honestly I have been pondering the same thing.....

 

[BrianLo]

Stilll waitingggggg... since you yourself claimed SK, Italy and Iran have peaked, and your screenshot doesn't prove that.

Please exclude china, since you claimed these three specific countries peaked...

I'll be waiting...

Aren't you also the one who said the parks should be open in 2-4 weeks, or "4-6 weeks at the high end?"

Here we are exactly 6 weeks later with both parks still shuttered, and an additional park closed since then.

Honestly, I'm sick and tired of having a back and forth with you as you've literally done nothing more than cherry pick my sentences apart and ignore the majority of what I am saying.

The discharges will soon start outpacing new cases in other hot spots as well, but there is a natural latency for that to happen. South Korea new Dx rates have definitely peaked. Evidence suggests Italy and Iran may be at their inflection points as well.

Read what I said. New Diagnosis Rates are NOT the same metric as Active Disease. I explained that there is a natural latency, unless new diagnosis rates continue to double week on week, the discharges and recovery are going to start significantly catching up.

VERY SOON we are going to start seeing 500-odd daily "discharges". This isn't a chronic disease. The people diagnosed two weeks ago have an end point. Unless there are 1000 new diagnosis Monday, how does it keep pace?

My statement was primarily about South Korea New Dx Rates peaking. Here's the data I already provided you, which you've ignored.

Feb 27 - 505
Feb 28 - 517
Feb 29 - 813
March 1st - 586
March 2nd - 599
March 3rd -851
March 4th -435
March 5th - 467

Please demonstrate to me how this does not represent an overall plateau.

I'm not outlining Iran and Italy for you, you are quite capable of doing it yourself.

Extrapolating SARs, 4-6 weeks at the high end. Which was still a more aggressive coronavirus.

But neither Castle park is actually in the major affected province. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see them come back online in 2-4 weeks.

Look at the first two words in my quote. I've said now multiple times in this thread that the world is over-reacting. What I was wrong about was the public reaction, not the disease course. I lived in Ontario during the SARS epidemic (where Toronto might as well have been synonymous with Japan or Hong Kong. Except SARS was deadlier.

There were no schools closed. The Canadian border wasn't closed. They didn't bar Ontarians from making their annual pilgrimage to WDW. Which they do en masse. They didn't put us all in quarantine for months.

There is still NO LOGICAL REASON that Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo parks should be closed. But the world is seemingly way more hysterical than in 2003.

 

[jerryp49]

 

[flutas]

Read what I said. New Diagnosis Rates are NOT the same metric as Active Disease. I explained that there is a natural latency, unless new diagnosis rates continue to double week on week, the discharges and recovery are going to start significantly catching up.

VERY SOON we are going to start seeing 500-odd daily "discharges". This isn't a chronic disease. The people diagnosed two weeks ago have an end point. Unless there are 1000 new diagnosis Monday, how does it keep pace?


Feb 27 - 505
Feb 28 - 517
Feb 29 - 813
March 1st - 586
March 2nd - 599
March 3rd -851
March 4th -435
March 5th - 467

I did not ignore your numbers simply to ignore them, I ignored them because the two I checked are wrong, and so I assumed the rest are.

March 5th, South Korea reported 760 new cases, not 435.
March 2nd, South Korea reported 974 new cases, not 599.

In the past 3 days, two have been over the 500 figure you claim, and one was almost the 1,000 figure you claim has to be hit on Monday.

Even if dates were off by one due to timezone differences, those numbers do not appear in your set whatsoever.

You do understand that you can be re-infected with it, or the virus is a multiple week long infection period? You do understand this virus can have a very long incubation period, up to 14 days right? All together, when the virus does peak, it will be in weeks to months, not 1 week after the first case in a country. Combine all this with recent reports that testing isn't very conclusive currently, and we most likely are seeing the start of the ramp, not the end.

 

[BrianLo]

I did not ignore your numbers simply to ignore them, I ignored them because the two I checked are wrong, and so I assumed the rest are.

March 5th, South Korea reported 760 new cases, not 435.
March 2nd, South Korea reported 974 new cases, not 599.

In the past 3 days, two have been over the 500 figure you claim, and one was almost the 1,000 figure you claim has to be hit on Monday.

Even if dates were off by one due to timezone differences, those numbers do not appear in your set whatsoever.

You do understand that you can be re-infected with it, or the virus is a multiple week long infection period? You do understand this virus can have a very long incubation period, up to 14 days right? All together, when the virus does peak, it will be in weeks to months, not 1 week after the first case in a country. Combine all this with recent reports that testing isn't very conclusive currently, and we most likely are seeing the start of the ramp, not the end.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 137,483,333 Cases and 2,962,790 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Here is the entire data set. It is sourced directly from South Korea's daily count.

The numbers are reset at at different time, but are representative of 24 hour periods for GMT+0

Scroll down and you can flip through every single individual day. Either way your data set of two also displays a decline. You've just again cherry picked the two highest numbers conveniently.

 

[flutas]

Coronavirus Update (Live): 137,483,333 Cases and 2,962,790 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Here is the entire data set. It is sourced directly from South Korea's daily count.

The numbers are reset at at different time, but are representative of 24 hour periods for GMT+0

Scroll down and you can flip through every single individual day. Either way your data set of two also displays a decline.

Unfortunately the source on all of them just goes to the same page which has no historical numbers, so I can't verify either way.

I'll just agree to disagree on this with you and quit arguing it with you, since neither one of us are going to change our minds.

I will reiterate what I said earlier in this thread. Don't panic, but be cautious and stay informed.

 

[TP2000]

Everyone is collecting 2000 toilet paper rolls to build a monument to our own @TP2000 . Hopes are that these monuments will get the attention of neighbor lady, who we need in these dark times to bring a glimmer of hope.

So funny you mention that. I'm going to a little social thing this weekend. I think there will be some topics to talk about here a few days from now.

 

[TP2000]

I'll just drop this here, as it's very good advice and the best bet at combating viruses and disease.

 

[Tinkwings]

So that is how TP2000 got his name......…..not sure I can fit another 1976 rolls in my home....that and it is currently raining outside which does not bode well with paper products as such.....

 

[Darkbeer1]

So that is how TP2000 got his name......…..not sure I can fit another 1976 rolls in my home....that and it is currently raining outside which does not bode well with paper products as such.....

What size of rolls are you stocking? Charlie's math is always weird. At Costco you buy 30 Mega Rolls, which the package claims is 116..... And how about the Super Jumbo ones used at Disneyland....

 

[Tinkwings]

What size of rolls are you stocking? Charlie's math is always weird. At Costco you buy 30 Mega Rolls, which the package claims is 116..... And how about the Super Jumbo ones used at Disneyland....

Well structurally I think mega rolls on the base of ones TP monument would be most effective, followed by double rolls, topping with singleply....imho engineering wise..... Course I likely cannot obtain the super DLR rolls...

Just got back from grocery run and did notice end cap full with megapacks of 96 rolls and smiled to self....adjacent aisle was plentiful as well, so I commented to sales gal that they were stocked and she said they have had several runs of people buying the hyped necessities the past week and just got restocked. She felt comfortable sharing as my lot did not include any panic items.....does 2 cans of tuna and 2 cans of soup count?!!!