EDIT: Ok this turned into an incoherent essay, apologies - feel free to skip over this. The TL;DR - Closing the monorail is a non-starter, and fixing it is realistically going to happen, one way or another.
Realistically I cant see that happening. As it stands it seems they have no supplier, nor intention of replacing them. Even if we throw a supplier into the works immediately, it'd take more than 3 years to plan, design, test and build enough to be useful.
Really the plan right now should be:
Current Fleet
- Emergency funds issued to cover hiring (or bringing back) maintenance staff to improve the amount of time being spent on each train car.
- Overhaul the current fleet one by one. I'm not talking furnishings or air-conditioning, I'm talking mechanical. A complete strip down and inspection/repair of each car - every nut and bolt.
- If funds permit, a minor interior overhaul to see the train through the next 5 or so years whilst the replacement work is carried out.
- Introduce a timed schedule to the monorail, allowing a train say every 10 minutes during peak times, and 15-20 minutes during off-peak times. This would allow for a reduced service whilst still providing a reliable, consistent schedule.
- If investigative works show that there are one or more trains in the current fleet that are no longer fit for service, remove them and use for parts for the remaining trains - no more half assed jobs, if it means the fleet runs low on trains then so be it - fix that mistake next time and order more bloody trains.
- Consult with Bombardier who built both the MK VI trains and the not to dissimilar Las Vegas M-VI trains. Like the IV (Which did run on the vegas beams for a short time) these trains are interchangeable. Both work on the exact same beam and power system, and Bombardier still maintain the M-VI. The base components are (for the most part) the same, with the obvious exception being the shells.
New Fleet
- Immediately open a tender to build a replacement fleet of 10 new trains, along with a 25 year maintenance contract. There is absolutely no reason why a modern vehicle (even with its constant usage) can not last this long with the correct maintenance.
- Build a new monorail spur, along with a new workshop to allow for indoor overnight storage of all trains, along with maintenance bays, tractors, etc.
- On the back of the Disney Transport Company, form a new team of designers, engineers, etc who would work along side the contractor building the first 10 trains to construct a further 5, giving control of the fleet back to Disney.
- Follow the principles of modern light-rail trains/trams which are EXTREMELY cheap to build compared to what Disney paid for the MK VI trains and would have significantly higher capacity, with full walk-through carriages, illuminated screens, air conditioning, etc.
- Commit to a 10 year expansion plan to bring the Monorail to all 4 parks - again, people tout figures on it costing millions for a single piece of track. The costs are far lower than they were when the monorail was originally built, and again Bombardier are very experienced at this so would be an obvious choice. A monorail if done right can be cheaper than a bus fleet over time, and again if done right can handle a significantly larger amount of passengers. Disney's is currently not being done right and from a volume and cost point of view, has never been done right.
We're at the point where Disney either give up and commit to the enormous cost of removing the monorail (and the cost would be enormous). Or commit to their own future and sort the damn thing out so that it'll last, improve the entire transport network around the parks and improve the overall experience for everyone.
The obvious elephant in the room is the cost. Lets put some rough figures out there. The current fleet cost $3.57 million per train back in 1989. By todays standards that approx $7.1 million per train. However realistically would certainly cost under $5 million and likely under $3 million. By comparison, an entire light-rail network installation and fleet of 7 trains in Sheffield UK, even with an overrunning budget cost the equivalent of $103 million. A similar network exists in London, with the vehicles being built by Bombardier at a cost of £35 million ($48 million) for 24 complete tram-trains.
Fixing the monorail, and by extension all of Disneys transport problems is not as big of an issue as people like to think.
In 2018 it doesn't cost anywhere near as much to build the beams - people often misquote the Las Vegas projects beam costs and assume Disneys is the same. The Last Vegas project cost so much because the property costs and logistics of building around an existing city - issues which Disney does not face. The other comparison; Brazil - theirs costs were estimated to be around $800 million, but this included the cost of 54 trains, all of which had 7 cars, not to mention construction cost differences.
Outside of theme parks, Disney has made some phenomenal business decisions over the last several years, with Lucas and Marvel paving the way for years of original IP. There's absolutely no reason why a company of Disney's size and skill can not sort this out. I just wish we had less of the 'world is falling down' attitude -
closing the monorail down is simply not going to happen, despite what a few dramatic people seem to think.
Bombardier is a pretty obvious choice as a business partner. On the back of WDI's invention they've build a multi-billion dollar business. Last year they were contracted for a massive new monorail system in Thailand, using the exact same technology used by WDI to design the VI, and later passed over to Bombardier for the IV. Bombardier have modern trains that work on the Disney beams, they are actively making these so its technically VERY simple to replace the trains.