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Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts Tres

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flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
Goofyernmost said:
Even if they called it Super Fastpass, they still can only get so many people on each ride per hour. If they let 80% in front of you, logistically, the FP line would never move. Physically the line with the most people passing through it would be the longest.
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You're looking at this all wrong..

80% is about how much of the capacity they can give out in FPs in the scenario described. That alone wouldn't cause the FP line to backup.. that is dependent on the merge ratio.. which controls how much of the available capacity each line gets. he line with the most people moving through it would not be the longest.. queue backup is a function of demand vs supply.. backing up is purely a function of ability to consume, not which line accepted more people. If the merge ratio were 80/20.. With 80% of the capacity.. the FP line can accept 4x the amount of people the SB could and not run any slower than SB.

Your 'line keeps growing' scenario doesn't happen because they limit FP distribution.. not simply give 8 out of 10 people that walk up a FP. FPs are limited, as well as people's ability to take one. The demand that equates to actual people queuing up is tied to a feedback loop of the attraction wait. Those factors limit how much true demand gets translated into people into each queue.

Where things would get ugly is when the FP distribution far outweighs the merge ratio.. then FP lines would backup... or what we used to have.. when the FP returns exceed the capacity allocated to FP... then SB swells while the extra FPs are redeemed (due to the policy to allow the merge ratio to grow to favor FP if the FP line swells).

What ratio to give out really is based on what your intent is.. you can go all the way from 'minimize impact on SB' to 'make standby, truly the definition of standby'. I don't think Disney has ever truely elaborated on their logic here in terms of intent.
 
Goofyernmost

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
flynnibus said:
You're looking at this all wrong..

80% is about how much of the capacity they can give out in FPs in the scenario described. That alone wouldn't cause the FP line to backup.. that is dependent on the merge ratio.. which controls how much of the available capacity each line gets. he line with the most people moving through it would not be the longest.. queue backup is a function of demand vs supply.. backing up is purely a function of ability to consume, not which line accepted more people. If the merge ratio were 80/20.. With 80% of the capacity.. the FP line can accept 4x the amount of people the SB could and not run any slower than SB.

Your 'line keeps growing' scenario doesn't happen because they limit FP distribution.. not simply give 8 out of 10 people that walk up a FP. FPs are limited, as well as people's ability to take one. The demand that equates to actual people queuing up is tied to a feedback loop of the attraction wait. Those factors limit how much true demand gets translated into people into each queue.

Where things would get ugly is when the FP distribution far outweighs the merge ratio.. then FP lines would backup... or what we used to have.. when the FP returns exceed the capacity allocated to FP... then SB swells while the extra FPs are redeemed (due to the policy to allow the merge ratio to grow to favor FP if the FP line swells).

What ratio to give out really is based on what your intent is.. you can go all the way from 'minimize impact on SB' to 'make standby, truly the definition of standby'. I don't think Disney has ever truely elaborated on their logic here in terms of intent.
Click to expand...
I suppose, however, if you look at it that way this is what you get. If that many are issued FP's and they are in the FP line, technically the standby is hardly moving, right? So let's make like they aren't there at all. That's the way Disney is looking at it anyway. Then what happens is the FP line IS the standby line and because way more people are in it then the other line it has to back up the same way that the old pre-FP, regular line did, there is no way around it. The ride takes just so many people and in order for FP to work, it needs something to play off of and that would be Stand-by. In other words before FP was introduced, all lines were in reality, FP lines.

And using your scenario...that means that there are actually fewer FP's distributed so that total number declines by a lot. Wouldn't that alone speed up the standby line? And even if they had a merge ratio, do you honestly believe that Disney could react swiftly enough to even matter. You have far more faith in there ability then I do. By the time they figured out that they needed to increase the number of FP's the day would be over and how do you go back 60 days and change what you have booked? Before they could book additional passes it would be 2 months later.
 
stevehousse

stevehousse

Well-Known Member
All this number "guessing" on FP is giving me a headache! No sense making up stuff when u have no idea what the true numbers are!!!

In regards to the new FP+, I just want to know what the real number of passes us guests will be able to receive? I know in the testing a it was 3, an it that says true, I will be upset because I am someone who goes to the parks and utilizes FP to my advantage! I can easily get 5 fast passes in a day if need be, and I do not like that the FP options are categorized how they were in the testing!

We are going for a trip to the world in the middle of November, and we are praying the new system doesn't start when we are there! I don't want to end up a guinea pig and have my vacation ruined because of all the technical issues!

I just hope that if they do implement it while we will be there, that I am notified that I can reserve rides ASAP!
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
Goofyernmost said:
I suppose, however, if you look at it that way this is what you get. If that many are issued FP's and they are in the FP line, technically the standby is hardly moving, right? So let's make like they aren't there at all. That's the way Disney is looking at it anyway. Then what happens is the FP line IS the standby line and because way more people are in it then the other line it has to back up the same way that the old pre-FP, regular line did, there is no way around it. The ride takes just so many people and in order for FP to work, it needs something to play off of and that would be Stand-by. In other words before FP was introduced, all lines were in reality, FP lines.
Click to expand...


Honestly.. I read this and I can't make sense of any of it.

Backup only happens when what you feed into it.. exceeds the capacity you assigned to it. That's why distribution and merge ratio have to be related. For FP lines.. disney explictly controls the inflow of guests. For SB, the inflow is influenced by the posted wait time. Disney can keep the FP line from backing up as long as they don't over distribute.. SB they can't control a guest's willingness to wait.

Disney pre-FP couldn't control the guest getting into line or not.. with FP they do.

As for the high ratios.. I always come back to 'Why did Disney call it Standby in the first place?'... I have to think it's because they've always intended for FP ratios to be very high.
 
Yensid1974

Yensid1974

Well-Known Member
flynnibus said:
Honestly.. I read this and I can't make sense of any of it.

Backup only happens when what you feed into it.. exceeds the capacity you assigned to it. That's why distribution and merge ratio have to be related. For FP lines.. disney explictly controls the inflow of guests. For SB, the inflow is influenced by the posted wait time. Disney can keep the FP line from backing up as long as they don't over distribute.. SB they can't control a guest's willingness to wait.

Disney pre-FP couldn't control the guest getting into line or not.. with FP they do.

As for the high ratios.. I always come back to 'Why did Disney call it Standby in the first place?'... I have to think it's because they've always intended for FP ratios to be very high.
Click to expand...


The other issue that plays into this is the CM's at the attraction. There is a specific ratio of FP to SB guests to be taken resort wide, however it comes down to the CM at the merge position to execute it correctly. If this person is not good at it, they in and of themselves can cause backups. Human error plays into everything...
 
stevehousse

stevehousse

Well-Known Member
On a side note, did anyone think what will happen to the FP+ kiosks that they get up throughout te park! I can only imagine the chaos of people thinking they need to wait in a long line to reserve rides and come up with not good FP cuz the good ones have been sold out for the last 2 months! Can u imagine waiting in line for an hour to get fast passes for splash mountain Winnie the Pooh and haunted mansion only to come out of the line with te tiki bird room, magic carpets, and its a small world!

This whole thing really makes no sense and the 2 billion or whatever the number is Idc, should have been used on expanding the parks! With 2 billion they could have build a new e ticket at each park in wdw!
 
Clamman73

Clamman73

Well-Known Member
Beholder said:
FastPass, FastPass+, Magic Bands, RFID, room key cards, and interactive this and that, I've got a headache. I'm admit that I'm reluctant to change, especially when the motive for said change is questionable, but forgive me, I like simple. Reading these threads about Next Gen makes me feel a bit "out of the loop". Maybe I'm just old.
Click to expand...


I was thinking next time at Disney I'll just go to Poly pool bar and drink Mai Tais all day...
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
Yensid1974 said:
The other issue that plays into this is the CM's at the attraction. There is a specific ratio of FP to SB guests to be taken resort wide, however it comes down to the CM at the merge position to execute it correctly. If this person is not good at it, they in and of themselves can cause backups. Human error plays into everything...
Click to expand...


Yes - but that's kind of stating the obvious and isn't a dependent part of the story when talking about the model. You could say CMs not performing right impact the modeled capacity vs the actual capacity... mechanical breakdowns impact capacity.. the weather impacts capacity.. etc etc etc. But none of those change the relationship between SB and FP. If CMs aren't performing to spec.. that's still under Disney control. You train them or fire them.. or opt to ignore it. All choices left to Disney to control.
 
momof1princess

momof1princess

Well-Known Member
On another thread today someone mentioned a FP+ at Norway for Maelstrom? We've talked about the impact this will have on a MK visit, but do we really need this for Epcot?
 
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