Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[LSLS]

I’ve never understood the “fantastic four isn’t popular thing” the comics seem pretty popular to me and I don’t think the previous movies are a good indicator because they all sucked.

But that's really my point. They are big with comic readers, but comic readers make up a very small portion of the general public. They get put on the same rung as X-Men and Spiderman and Batman and Superman, and I think they are a large step under those among the general populace. This is just my speak now, but as a non-comic reader who grew up in the 90s, I could tell you about Green Goblin or Apocalypse before the movies ever came out. I wouldn't have even been able to tell you what powers the characters from F4 had (aside from one guy was a rock, I think I knew that?). I think the popularity of the comics gets misinterpreted for popularity among the public. Now, I'll say again, I'm planning on going to see it, and I could definitely be wrong on how it does (lord knows it wouldn't be the first time with movies), but I'm skeptical on how big a group they really are.

 

[Phroobar]

But that's really my point. They are big with comic readers, but comic readers make up a very small portion of the general public. They get put on the same rung as X-Men and Spiderman and Batman and Superman, and I think they are a large step under those among the general populace. This is just my speak now, but as a non-comic reader who grew up in the 90s, I could tell you about Green Goblin or Apocalypse before the movies ever came out. I wouldn't have even been able to tell you what powers the characters from F4 had (aside from one guy was a rock, I think I knew that?). I think the popularity of the comics gets misinterpreted for popularity among the public. Now, I'll say again, I'm planning on going to see it, and I could definitely be wrong on how it does (lord knows it wouldn't be the first time with movies), but I'm skeptical on how big a group they really are.

I'd say they were are as big as the faithful Disneyanna or what's left of the Star Wars fanbase. Compared to the movie going public, where talking 2-5%?

 

[Agent H]

But that's really my point. They are big with comic readers, but comic readers make up a very small portion of the general public. They get put on the same rung as X-Men and Spiderman and Batman and Superman, and I think they are a large step under those among the general populace. This is just my speak now, but as a non-comic reader who grew up in the 90s, I could tell you about Green Goblin or Apocalypse before the movies ever came out. I wouldn't have even been able to tell you what powers the characters from F4 had (aside from one guy was a rock, I think I knew that?). I think the popularity of the comics gets misinterpreted for popularity among the public. Now, I'll say again, I'm planning on going to see it, and I could definitely be wrong on how it does (lord knows it wouldn't be the first time with movies), but I'm skeptical on how big a group they really are.

I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m optimistic based on the ticket sales and the positive reviews.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

No Hollywood release this year has hit $1 billion globally. Stitch and Minecraft have come close, but not yet.

That's part of why I'm skeptical F4 would.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, one effect is he cannot open a movie

Well given that a majority of his career has been playing supporting characters I don't know if you can attribute that to him. But he has been part of some major franchises, including Suicide Squad.

I suspect his very known issues will force Sisney to play hide and go seek in terms of using him in marketing.

Does the General Public even care about his "issues"? I have seen zero chatter online outside a few articles and talk here. I don't see any huge online campaign happening about it like the way others went after other actors for their perceived "issues". So don't know if anyone is really paying all that much attention to him. I provide no opinion one way or the other on it.

Also Disney so far has neither shy'd away or acknowledge his involvement beyond some voice overs in any marketing. So we'll see what they do as we get closer to the release date.

 

[Disney Irish]

Casting Leto was madness.

He had been attached to the project for a long time before it went into production. He was cast just after the Suicide Squad praise of his Joker, so it made sense at the time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No Hollywood release this year has hit $1 billion globally. Stitch and Minecraft have come close, but not yet.

That's part of why I'm skeptical F4 would.

Won’t be close

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I say Lilo & Stitch barely makes it to a billion. But it won’t be until either The Fantastic Four (which I still bet is the next 2025 billion dollar movie) or Freakier Friday comes out.

There have been zero billion dollar movies in 2025 not approved by the central committee…in reality

 

[Disney Irish]

No Hollywood release this year has hit $1 billion globally. Stitch and Minecraft have come close, but not yet.

That's part of why I'm skeptical F4 would.

This is why I wonder if there will be any before Avatar, and it potentially being the only one.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Anyone want to guess at the back half of the year? Acknowledging I’m terrible, but this year hasn’t been that wildly unpredictable thus far from our consensus six months ago.

1) Fire and Ash. ?1.75B
A still large number, smaller than Way of Water. Some inane week of debate about how troubled it is before the holidays have actually been allowed to play out and international dump trucks of money show up.

2) Zootopia 2 - A 1B squeak ala Moana 2. I’m prepared to be Wildly off the mark by 300-500M in either direction and it wouldn’t be surprising. Another one where International is what will make the final call.

3) Fantastic Four - 750M.

4) Tron - bombs spectacularly. Maybe even loses more money that Snow White.

5) Freakier Friday - ?150M, A modest sum for its budget. Troubled if the budget is much over 50M.

It always depends on the quality of the movie…more than anything

Avatar is safe for $1.5 because of its mystique at this point.

If it wasn’t such a crappy year…I’d say zootopia was safe for a Bean…but now I think it may fall short

Fantastic four makes maybe $550-$600 is my guess?

Based on absolutely nothing

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is why I wonder if there will be any before Avatar, and it potentially being the only one.

Switch may barely make it…by a smidge. But not guaranteed

There is nothing mysterious about this…I believe I said the invincibles…or thunderbirds…or whatever that Marvel thing was called? Was “done” at $372 or something and it flatlined at $381…
So movies are becoming rather easy to gauge as it stands. Very few surprises or unicorns

 

[Disney Irish]

Switch may barely make it…by a smidge. But not guaranteed

There is nothing mysterious about this…I believe I said the invincibles…or thunderbirds…or whatever that Marvel thing was called? Was “done” at $372 or something and it flatlined at $381…
So movies are becoming rather easy to gauge as it stands. Very few surprises or unicorns

Hindsight is always 20/20. If you asked anyone, even you, (and we did in this thread) how many $1B+ movies would there be in 2025, no one would have said zero until Avatar, again not even you. So no its not "easy to gauge", as no one expected a complete drop off in the box office that has happened so far in 2025 and may continue for the foreseeable future.

 

[Nevermore525]

4) Tron - bombs spectacularly. Maybe even loses more money that Snow White.

Only reason I’m going to check this in a theater is to just absorb Reznor and Ross’s soundtrack. They’ve done plenty of solid scores so far.

 

[Phroobar]

Only reason I’m going to check this in a theater is to just absorb Reznor and Ross’s soundtrack. They’ve done plenty of solid scores so far.

Or just buy the soundtrack and skip the movie.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

It may be popular, but most of the pushback I see is on the idea it will be a billion+.

For a comic based movie to clear a billion it needs people who aren't into those comics to show up. FF may or may not get that, but I don't see anything ahead of time to say it will.

If I’m aware of them, they’re not obscure or just limited to comics fans. I read few comics as a kid, but watched cartoons on TV with F4.

Pedro Pascal will cut both ways, but more positive than negative, IMO. He’ll make a superhero movie more palatable to more women. He does not pack people into theaters (Gladiator II, Materialists.) I’ve seen a growing campaign against him over politics, now that his profile has been raised. The Last Of Us, I believe, originally helped him, but now slightly hurts him overall.

 

[Dranth]

If I’m aware of them, they’re not obscure or just limited to comics fans. I read few comics as a kid, but watched cartoons on TV with F4.

Just curious, are you aware of them because they already tried a few movies with the FF or because of the comics?

My impression is they were mostly a comic thing until the movies came out and that was when they seeped more into the knowledge base of the general public. I am not sure that helps given how those previous movies were received or hurts, but I have no problems admitting I could be very wrong on that front.

Pedro Pascal will cut both ways, but more positive than negative, IMO. He’ll make a superhero movie more palatable to more women. He does not pack people into theaters (Gladiator II, Materialists.) I’ve seen a growing campaign against him over politics, now that his profile has been raised. The Last Of Us, I believe, originally helped him, but now slightly hurts him overall.

Season 2 of the Last of Us was a big step down for me, but I put that more on the choices the writers made vs. anything Pedro did. Personally, he is one of the main reasons I may go see FF when it comes out.

 

[Tha Realest]

This is why I wonder if there will be any before Avatar, and it potentially being the only one.

Let’s not forget Glinda and Elphaba will be snatching wigs and PLF screens days before Zootopia 2 is released. That could dampen its box office.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Zootopia 1 absolutely benefited from being a March release with limited to no direct competition

The holiday season is going to make it harder for the sequel

 

[Tha Realest]

He had been attached to the project for a long time before it went into production. He was cast just after the Suicide Squad praise of his Joker, so it made sense at the time.

I don’t know Leto received much praise for his Joker. In my estimation it’s the worst portrayal of that character, and that involves the Birds of Prey TV show and Gotham. Heck, even Cesar Romero was a better portrayal. Keep in mind, two actors have earned Oscars for portraying the character, and that does not include Jack Nicholson.

Well given that a majority of his career has been playing supporting characters I don't know if you can attribute that to him. But he has been part of some major franchises, including Suicide Squad.


Does the General Public even care about his "issues"? I have seen zero chatter online outside a few articles and talk here. I don't see any huge online campaign happening about it like the way others went after other actors for their perceived "issues". So don't know if anyone is really paying all that much attention to him. I provide no opinion one way or the other on it.

Also Disney so far has neither shy'd away or acknowledge his involvement beyond some voice overs in any marketing. So we'll see what they do as we get closer to the release date.

I don’t know if the General Public cares because I do not believe he is a known commodity amongst the moviegoing Publix (eg he doesn’t help move the needle in terms of attendance). I only say this to say I believe it complicates his ability to robustly market this film. By many accounts he’s a cult leader. One of the few movies he was featured front and center in the marketing was Morbius, and we saw how that went.

 

[Disney Irish]

Let’s not forget Glinda and Elphaba will be snatching wigs and PLF screens days before Zootopia 2 is released. That could dampen its box office.

Given that W1 only got to $755M less than 12 months ago against Moana 2, I still question how much impact W2 will have on other movies. Not to mention that both IMAX and Dolby will be showing Zootopia 2, so its actually the other way around, Z2 will be snatching the broom away from W2 so to speak.