Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And Z2 may still come close to $1B if not push over, as it certainly does well as a franchise outside the US (and not too shabby inside the US I would assume), so who knows.

PatF has certainly earned its flowers over the years, which is probably why they greenlit the sequel series.

As for the rest, as said its really hard to predict the box office these days. What should be slam dunks aren't performing as such. So you want to say something reaffirms the old models, well there are about 30 different movies that say those models should be thrown out because they aren't accurate. Because if any of us here, including you, were so good at predicting a movies success with any accuracy we'd be working in Hollywood and not posting on a Disney fan board.

Theyre are some surprises. But it doesn’t seem that tough to get in the ballpark right now.

But skippy keeps putting up aggregate reviews, Presale stats and trailer clicks and calls it “science”

I’m an engineer… I’m a fan of science…big fan.

But science ain’t wrong like 75% of the time with this “idiocy equation” stuff. There was another master calculation up thread today.

Entertainment consumption is governed by by “the other” part of the brain. It plays to the emotional. We’ve also seen the last few years it doesn’t play to the philosophical/ideological part of the brain either. We’re all leaning here.

Go with the gut. What is likely to land based what we know about humans? What is not. And the factor that is dismissed here is that people hold a grudge and make studios “pay” for their mistakes. String a few stinkers together and they aren’t buying a ticket for the next round…in general.

Back to regular programming

 

[Disney Irish]

Theyre are some surprises. But it doesn’t seem that tough to get in the ballpark right now.

But skippy keeps putting up aggregate retires, Presale stats and trailer clicks and calls it “science”

I’m an engineer… I’m a fan of science…big fan.

But science ain’t wrong like 75% of the time with this “idiocy equation” stuff. There was another master calculation up thread today.

Entertainment consumption is governed by by “the other” part of the brain. It plays to the emotional. We’ve also seen the last few years it doesn’t play to the philosophical/ideological part of the brain either. We’re all leaning here.

Go with the gut. What is likely to land based what we know about humans? What is not. And the factor that is dismissed here is that people hold a grudge and make studios “pay” for their mistakes. String a few stinkers together and they aren’t buying a ticket for the next round…in general.

Back to regular programming

And I'm an engineer as well, which is why I can follow the data. But one thing that many here discount is the chaotic nature of humans. Human nature is not as predictable as you make it seem, social science is VERY inaccurate for that reason. As humans tend to have very short memories for this stuff, so the grudge thing isn't as big or as long term as you try to make it seem. As if it was then IO2 wouldn't have gotten $1.7B less than 12 months ago.

I think what does have an impact is that once a human gets into a habitual repetition they tend to stick with it and its hard to break. Like being willing to skip a movie in theaters and wait for it at home.

 

[DKampy]

See I think F4 is going to do less than people think. I'm hoping to get out and see it, but I'm just not sure the box office is that big. I've said it before, but I don't think F4 are nearly as big with the general public as people think, and Marvel doesn't currently have the "Can't miss no matter what" going for it.

I know next to nothing about comic books….before the marvel movie came out…. all I recognize from the name Ironman was the song from Ozzy’s old band… but I knew of Fantastic Four since I was a child….even recognize Reed Richards as the smartest guy in the universe

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Just curious, are you aware of them because they already tried a few movies with the FF or because of the comics?

Because of cartoons. I haven’t watched previous movies.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Personally, he is one of the main reasons I may go see FF when it comes out.

Same.

Much criticism of TLOU centers on Ellie referring to herself as “a dad,” which I think most people don’t have the frame of reference to understand. That then comes around to Pedro supporting LGB and yes, fully, T.

 

[Disney Irish]

I know next to nothing about comic books….before the marvel movie came out…. all I recognize from the name Ironman was the song from Ozzy’s old band… but I knew of Fantastic Four since I was a child….even recognize Reed Richards as the smartest guy in the universe

I honestly think that Fantastic Four is more well known by the general public at this point then people want to admit. Just by the previous Fox movies alone I would think they are at least recognizable if not the cartoons.

 

[erasure fan1]

He was cast just after the Suicide Squad praise of his Joker, so it made sense at the time.

There was praise of his Joker? I know I didn't follow suicide squad talk all that closely. But most everything I had seen pointed pretty squarely at abomination. Lol, and I would agree. It wasn't until MODOK that Letos joker wasn't my least favorite comic portrayal ever. And I didn't actually dislike the movie like most everyone else. But man that was god awful. Just my opinion of course, but man was it awful. Lol

 

[Disney Irish]

There was praise of his Joker? I know I didn't follow suicide squad talk all that closely. But most everything I had seen pointed pretty squarely at abomination. Lol, and I would agree. It wasn't until MODOK that Letos joker wasn't my least favorite comic portrayal ever. And I didn't actually dislike the movie like most everyone else. But man that was god awful. Just my opinion of course, but man was it awful. Lol

Yes he did at the time, obviously peoples opinions will differ but here is an example of praise from the director -

"Suicide Squad" director praises Jared Leto's Joker: "the world stops"

David Ayer says the newest version of Batman's nemesis will knock everyone's socks off

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Midnight showings of JW are not nearby. Considered the 30-ish minute drive, but they’re too full already.

Will be awhile unless I go alone.

 

[Miss Rori]

Let’s not forget Glinda and Elphaba will be snatching wigs and PLF screens days before Zootopia 2 is released. That could dampen its box office.

It's possible, but I think there's less audience overlap between Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 than there was with Wicked: Part One and Moana 2 last year, and those two movies both did great business. So both these sequels can be big hits, and hopefully the rising tide that lifts all boats until Avatar: Fire and Ash, as the November/December schedule is otherwise short on potential big four-quadrant movies until after Avatar.

 

[BlindChow]

Yes he did at the time, obviously peoples opinions will differ but here is an example of praise from the director -

"Suicide Squad" director praises Jared Leto's Joker: "the world stops"

David Ayer says the newest version of Batman's nemesis will knock everyone's socks off

www.cbsnews.com

Your evidence of "praise" is from a pre-release promotional interview with the director?

Critics and audiences universally panned Leto's portrayal. That isn't to say Leto hasn't been good in other things. He's won an Oscar himself, after all.

To bring this back on topic: I doubt his casting will have an effect either way on Tron. I don't think he's box office poison (the general public is likely unaware of his off-putting, behind-the-scenes antics), but he isn't a draw, either. I suspect if they had cast, say, Ethan Hawke, the returns would end up being the same.

 

[Dranth]

Same.

Much criticism of TLOU centers on Ellie referring to herself as “a dad,” which I think most people don’t have the frame of reference to understand. That then comes around to Pedro supporting LGB and yes, fully, T.

Hadn't seen any of that. What a weird thing to be upset over.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Hadn't seen any of that. What a weird thing to be upset over.

The cesspool of FB. Any post about TLOU, it’s there.

In case anyone didn’t watch, Ellie sort of “runs away” with another girl. It can be difficult to assume who is what in their hearts (and it doesn’t matter to the story) but the other girl was either closeted until very recently or bisexual, because she was in a relationship with a guy.

When the other girl reveals she is pregnant (and the two women are now “together,”) Ellie says, “I’m gonna be a…dad?” That can be taken different ways, but being gay myself and knowing how we refer to each other, my read was it was meant in a casual, jokey way. We men (especially of a certain age) often refer to friends as “she,” and it is not a reference to being trans. It’s a casual, jokey way of referring to each other. “John, did you hear about Martin the other night? Girl, she drank so much, we had to send her home in an Uber.”

Certain people assumed she had just declared herself trans, and lost their minds over the perceived “wokeness.”

They also mercilessly make fun of her looks. Must be very hurtful to the actress.

 

[Phroobar]

The cesspool of FB. Any post about TLOU, it’s there.

In case anyone didn’t watch, Ellie sort of “runs away” with another girl. It can be difficult to assume who is what in their hearts (and it doesn’t matter to the story) but the other girl was either closeted until very recently or bisexual, because she was in a relationship with a guy.

When the other girl reveals she is pregnant (and the two women are now “together,”) Ellie says, “I’m gonna be a…dad?” That can be taken different ways, but being gay myself and knowing how we refer to each other, my read was it was meant in a casual, jokey way. We men (especially of a certain age) often refer to friends as “she,” and it is not a reference to being trans. It’s a casual, jokey way of referring to each other. “John, did you hear about Martin the other night? Girl, she drank so much, we had to send her home in an Uber.”

Certain people assumed she had just declared herself trans, and lost their minds over the perceived “wokeness.”

They also mercilessly make fun of her looks. Must be very hurtful to the actress.

Just trying to keep up. What is TLOU?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just trying to keep up. What is TLOU?

I think it’s the last of us?

Which is like last weeks fresh catch…anyone still into this?

 

[brideck]

I think it’s the last of us?

Which is like last weeks fresh catch…anyone still into this?

Yes, The Last of Us (most everything in the video game world ends up an acronym). It was brought up because Fantastic Four -> Pedro Pascal -> The Last of Us.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, The Last of Us (most everything in the video game world ends up an acronym). It was brought up because Fantastic Four -> Pedro Pascal -> The Last of Us.

Yeah I get it…not affect the box office in any way…but I get it

He had me sold with the red viper

 

[Disney Irish]

Your evidence of "praise" is from a pre-release promotional interview with the director?

Critics and audiences universally panned Leto's portrayal. That isn't to say Leto hasn't been good in other things. He's won an Oscar himself, after all.

That is just something I quickly found. Look if people had an issue with him in that role, fine. But I recall praise at the time (note this was almost a decade ago at this point so may not be able to provide examples beyond some articles like that one), so take it was a grain of salt.

To bring this back on topic: I doubt his casting will have an effect either way on Tron. I don't think he's box office poison (the general public is likely unaware of his off-putting, behind-the-scenes antics), but he isn't a draw, either. I suspect if they had cast, say, Ethan Hawke, the returns would end up being the same.

Whether a draw or not, I too believe he isn't going to be a determent to the box office of the movie. The movie itself, just like with Legacy in 2010, will likely stand on its own outside of any influence based on who is starring in it. Again with Legacy outside of Bridges himself most of the rest of the cast were fairly unknown outside of a few roles here and there, and none were big box office draws. So this is going to be no different in my opinion.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

The real problem for theaters is that they've been so dramatically undercut by Netflix and everyone chasing them. Combine that with the shortened window of time between a movie being in a theater and being able to watch it at home via something you're already paying for, and it's game over. Movie tickets would have to be stupidly cheap (on the order of $5 or less) if theaters were ever going to be able to compete with that, and I don't know if that will keep the lights on, unless doing that would double the audience size. It's hard to run a business when your primary good has reached commodity pricing.

Think about how Cap 4 just racked up 750m viewing minutes (6.3m+ views) in its first week on Disney+. Not all of those would have necessarily been from theater-goers were this 15 years ago instead of today, but that's got to be a lot of potential box office (>$60m at least? Who knows how many people are in the room watching those streams?) that just no longer exists.

There's been a lot of opinionating on the notion that the shortened theatrical window is hurting theater business.

I imagine this is true to a degree for sure, but plenty of movies still hit big.

The movie studios have the data we don't. If this were truly a major factor, surely they'd know that and adjust their releases accordingly? Disney has already made their theatrical windows a bit longer. That seems to be the exception though, not the norm.

Maybe it's just better for the movie producers. Movies are advertised on Apple with the tagline "Bring the theater home". The sooner a movie comes to streaming the more people may be willing to pay in order to see a new movie sooner. Thunderbolts as an example is priced $10 higher than any other new release right now on digital.

 

[Phroobar]

Yes, The Last of Us (most everything in the video game world ends up an acronym). It was brought up because Fantastic Four -> Pedro Pascal -> The Last of Us.

I've played the Last of Us and part of second game. I stopped caring after Joel died.