Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

there’s a debate whether superhero films are their own genre, or a sub genre of action (or whatever type of film it emulates - e.g. Winter Soldier being more akin to a Cold War thriller than a conventional action film. Personally, let’s accept superhero films are a genre. They are still performing steadily over recent years and some have done exceptionally well. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that films that have faceplanted were not regarded as good movies by critics or audiences. Thunderbolts seems an exception to this, but again, it’s the 36th film in a 15+ year span, so perhaps audiences are fatigued by Marvel (and its explosion of mediocre TV and film content) and not the genre in particular. We can test this proposition next month with Superman and FF.

This is true, and the only person who achieved the impossible was River Phoenix.

I agree with some of what has been said recently, that "fatigue" has been used to cover up some bad movies over the years. But I do think there is only so much of a particular genre (or sub-genre) that the public is willing to consume at any one particular moment in time. As the saying goes variety is the spice of life. So for example if the only thing that audiences feels Hollywood is producing is superhero films, even if its a sub-genres (as you said) of other genres, well audiences will get burned out by it, and burned out faster if they are not really good films. Just like I think that horror is starting to get that way since Hollywood is pumping it out faster and faster due to the recent resurgence of horror hits in the mainstream.

So I do think fatigue is a real thing, just maybe that its been overblown and overused over the years. We'll see what happens over the next few months with some of these movies.

 

[BrianLo]

3 weeks ago - It sat at 772.6M and had earned 161.8 implying 1.096B
2 weeks ago it sat at 858.4M and earned 85.8M implying 1.003B
This week it sits at 910.3M and earned 51.9M implying 1.014B

Quick Stitch Check in.

946M and earned 35.7M implying 1.017B

We can see the end point coalescing now.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Quick Stitch Check in.

946M and earned 35.7M implying 1.017B

We can see the end point coalescing now.

I say Lilo & Stitch barely makes it to a billion. But it won’t be until either The Fantastic Four (which I still bet is the next 2025 billion dollar movie) or Freakier Friday comes out.

 

[Tha Realest]

I say Lilo & Stitch barely makes it to a billion. But it won’t be until either The Fantastic Four (which I still bet is the next 2025 billion dollar movie) or Freakier Friday comes out.

Are you now including Freakier Friday in your Billion Dollar Earner club?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Weekend actuals are in, F1's final tally was $57 million, while HTTYD and Stitch did reach $200 million and $400 million

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Are you now including Freakier Friday in your Billion Dollar Earner club?

No. Freakier Friday isn’t in that club.

 

[BrianLo]

Anyone want to guess at the back half of the year? Acknowledging I’m terrible, but this year hasn’t been that wildly unpredictable thus far from our consensus six months ago.

1) Fire and Ash. ?1.75B
A still large number, smaller than Way of Water. Some inane week of debate about how troubled it is before the holidays have actually been allowed to play out and international dump trucks of money show up.

2) Zootopia 2 - A 1B squeak ala Moana 2. I’m prepared to be Wildly off the mark by 300-500M in either direction and it wouldn’t be surprising. Another one where International is what will make the final call.

3) Fantastic Four - 750M.

4) Tron - bombs spectacularly. Maybe even loses more money that Snow White.

5) Freakier Friday - ?150M, A modest sum for its budget. Troubled if the budget is much over 50M.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

5) Freakier Friday - ?150M, A modest sum for its budget. Troubled if the budget is much over 50M.

This just makes me want to watch the Jodie Foster original. I think I will!

 

[Disney Irish]

4) Tron - bombs spectacularly. Maybe even loses more money that Snow White.

This is one that is going to be interesting to me. I haven't seen the budget for it (I think rumors have been $150-$200M), but depending on the budget I think it might pull thru. It really depends on what effect Jared Leto has on it.

 

[Agent H]

Anyone want to guess at the back half of the year? Acknowledging I’m terrible, but this year hasn’t been that wildly unpredictable thus far from our consensus six months ago.

1) Fire and Ash. ?1.75B
A still large number, smaller than Way of Water. Some inane week of debate about how troubled it is before the holidays have actually been allowed to play out and international dump trucks of money show up.

2) Zootopia 2 - A 1B squeak ala Moana 2. I’m prepared to be Wildly off the mark by 300-500M in either direction and it wouldn’t be surprising. Another one where International is what will make the final call.

3) Fantastic Four - 750M.

4) Tron - bombs spectacularly. Maybe even loses more money that Snow White.

5) Freakier Friday - ?150M, A modest sum for its budget. Troubled if the budget is much over 50M.

Interesting. I think fantastic four and Zootopia 2 both make an easy billion dollars. I’m surprised that you have freakier Friday making more money than tron. I don’t think tron is going to be a huge hit or anything but Friday seems too niche to make a lot of money in actual movie theaters. It seems more like something that should have been released to Disney+ (I’m not making a statement on the movies Quality with that comment. I’m actually quite looking forward to it. I think I’m in the minority on that though)

 

[LSLS]

Interesting. I think fantastic four and Zootopia 2 both make an easy billion dollars. I’m surprised that you have freakier Friday making more money than tron. I don’t think tron is going to be a huge hit or anything but Friday seems too niche to make a lot of money in actual movie theaters. It seems more like something that should have been released to Disney+ (I’m not making a statement on the movies Quality with that comment. I’m actually quite looking forward to it. I think I’m in the minority on that though)

See I think F4 is going to do less than people think. I'm hoping to get out and see it, but I'm just not sure the box office is that big. I've said it before, but I don't think F4 are nearly as big with the general public as people think, and Marvel doesn't currently have the "Can't miss no matter what" going for it.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

See I think F4 is going to do less than people think. I'm hoping to get out and see it, but I'm just not sure the box office is that big. I've said it before, but I don't think F4 are nearly as big with the general public as people think, and Marvel doesn't currently have the "Can't miss no matter what" going for it.

I'm curious to see what the 3-week tracking is on Friday, because like you, I don't think it's going to be this massive hit

 

[Dranth]

Anyone want to guess at the back half of the year? Acknowledging I’m terrible, but this year hasn’t been that wildly unpredictable thus far from our consensus six months ago.

1) Fire and Ash. ?1.75B
A still large number, smaller than Way of Water. Some inane week of debate about how troubled it is before the holidays have actually been allowed to play out and international dump trucks of money show up.

2) Zootopia 2 - A 1B squeak ala Moana 2. I’m prepared to be Wildly off the mark by 300-500M in either direction and it wouldn’t be surprising. Another one where International is what will make the final call.

3) Fantastic Four - 750M.

4) Tron - bombs spectacularly. Maybe even loses more money that Snow White.

5) Freakier Friday - ?150M, A modest sum for its budget. Troubled if the budget is much over 50M.

Fire and Ash - This is going to drop off a good bit from Way of Water but still clear a billion.

Zootopia 2 - Assuming it is remotely competent, it will clear a billion easily, if not, it will still come close.

FF - Hope I end up being wrong on this one, but I'm really surprised by the folks thinking this is going to make a billion. I don't see it.

Tron - Flop.

Freakier Friday - Don't have an opinion on this one but I don't see it going crazy.

 

[Tha Realest]

This is one that is going to be interesting to me. I haven't seen the budget for it (I think rumors have been $150-$200M), but depending on the budget I think it might pull thru. It really depends on what effect Jared Leto has on it.

Well, one effect is he cannot open a movie and I suspect his very known issues will force Sisney to play hide and go seek in terms of using him in marketing.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Well, one effect is he cannot open a movie and I suspect his very known issues will force Sisney to play hide and go seek in terms of using him in marketing.

Casting Leto was madness.

 

[Agent H]

See I think F4 is going to do less than people think. I'm hoping to get out and see it, but I'm just not sure the box office is that big. I've said it before, but I don't think F4 are nearly as big with the general public as people think, and Marvel doesn't currently have the "Can't miss no matter what" going for it.

I’ve never understood the “fantastic four isn’t popular thing” the comics seem pretty popular to me and I don’t think the previous movies are a good indicator because they all sucked.

 

[Tha Realest]

Anyone want to guess at the back half of the year? Acknowledging I’m terrible, but this year hasn’t been that wildly unpredictable thus far from our consensus six months ago.

1) Fire and Ash. ?1.75B
A still large number, smaller than Way of Water. Some inane week of debate about how troubled it is before the holidays have actually been allowed to play out and international dump trucks of money show up.

$1.2-$1.75 billion. Depends on how China treats US made movies in light of tariff Hokey Pokey.

2) Zootopia 2 - A 1B squeak ala Moana 2. I’m prepared to be Wildly off the mark by 300-500M in either direction and it wouldn’t be surprising. Another one where International is what will make the final call.

Clears a billion, but how much over that depends on China

3) Fantastic Four - 750M.

I’m going $500-$600M. I think it will be well regarded but doesn’t have the stars hook like other MCU juggernauts. The franchise’s appeal is waning. I love Pascal - is he our greatest genre actor ever? - but he has never had a movie make more than $500M. I fear this will be treated akin to *Thunderbolts - a fine entry in the franchise, but suffers from audience fatigue (or ambivalence).

4) Tron - bombs spectacularly. Maybe even loses more money that Snow White.

No one seems excited to see this. Feels like a film a studio has to make to keep the rights to an IP. Legacy lovers will love the carried-forward aesthetic but don’t like how disconnected it feels from the previous two films based on marketing. No Daft Punk

5) Freakier Friday - ?150M, A modest sum for its budget. Troubled if the budget is much over 50M.

Honestly? This feels like a D+ film or limited series. Curtis is great and I’m glad Lohan seems to have her life together, but also feels like a film no one was pining for.

 

[Dranth]

I’ve never understood the “fantastic four isn’t popular thing” the comics seem pretty popular to me and I don’t think the previous movies are a good indicator because they all sucked.

It may be popular, but most of the pushback I see is on the idea it will be a billion+.

For a comic based movie to clear a billion it needs people who aren't into those comics to show up. FF may or may not get that, but I don't see anything ahead of time to say it will.

 

[Tha Realest]

Casting Leto was madness.

It’s completely bizarre.

It may be popular, but most of the pushback I see is on the idea it will be a billion+.

For a comic based movie to clear a billion it needs people who aren't into those comics to show up. FF may or may not get that, but I don't see anything ahead of time to say it will.

again, adjusted for inflation the first FF film (Evans/Alba) made $550M. $550M used to be the floor when the MCU was firing on all cylinders - unless it has Deadpool or Spider-Man post Endgame it’s difficult to clear a billion now.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Just for fun, here's the Disney Renaissance animated movies ranked by domestic gross, but also with the number they ranked in the US for movies during their year of release (in year instead of calendar):

The Lion King: $312 million (#2)
Aladdin: $217 million (#1)
Tarzan: $171 million (#6)
Beauty and the Beast: $145 million (#3)
Pocahontas: $141 million (#4)
Mulan: $120 million (#13)
Hunchback: $100 million (#15)
Hercules: $99 million (#17)
The Little Mermaid : $84 million (#13)
The Rescuers Down Under: $27.9 million (#42)