Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

I think the toy production has to be largely about current confidence and vibes, right?... So my guess is more a crisis of confidence - it's not a sequel, it's a sci-fi movie which has traditionally been a really tricky area for Disney / Pixar, and the Disney / Pixar box office has been vacillating wildly between huge hits and huge... not hits... recently.

I think you're on to something!

When discussing Pixar's track record at the box office the past decade, I think it would be fair to ignore the four Covid era movies that basically had no theatrical run. This likely benefits Pixar, as my gut tells me Turning Red would have been a giant bomb, and the others (Onward, Soul, Luca) wouldn't have done very well in a normal box office run.

There may be some internal numbers that reflect that for Pixar though, so they likely now understand they would have lost big money on at least a couple of those had Covid not prevented them from running normally. Which could feed into their crisis of confidence.

The rest of Pixar's stuff the past decade, has mostly been big Billion dollar hits (inflation adjusted). It's really just the bomb that was Lightyear and the money-losing Elemental that would cause this crisis of confidence.

Still, it's a weird new world when the mega-budget summer tentpole from Pixar has no toys for sale at Target.

 

[DisneyHead123]

I think you're on to something!

When discussing Pixar's track record at the box office the past decade, I think it would be fair to ignore the four Covid era movies that basically had no theatrical run. This likely benefits Pixar, as my gut tells me Turning Red would have been a giant bomb, and the others (Onward, Soul, Luca) wouldn't have done very well in a normal box office run.

There may be some internal numbers that reflect that for Pixar though, so they likely now understand they would have lost big money on at least a couple of those had Covid not prevented them from running normally. Which could feed into their crisis of confidence.

The rest of Pixar's stuff the past decade, has mostly been big Billion dollar hits (inflation adjusted). It's really just the bomb that was Lightyear and the money-losing Elemental that would cause this crisis of confidence.

Still, it's a weird new world when the mega-budget summer tentpole from Pixar has no toys for sale at Target.

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My (totally unfounded) guess is that the anxiety is coming from the box office performance of both Disney and Pixar, as I assume Disney is responsible for toy production. Even though Pixar is separate from the Disney studios, I think all recent movies (Disney and Pixar) would influence their thinking when contemplating the likelihood of something being a hit.

Side note - now that I think of it, Lilo and Stitch and Inside Out 2 were pretty light on children’s merchandise too.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

The commercial expectations for Elio are not high. The best we can hope for is a run similar to Elemental if it gets good reviews/WOM. Not sure why some are wishcasting it flops though. Like just ignore it if it doesn't interest you?

Yeah, I'm kind of puzzled about a certain amount of glee around predicting Elio's failure.

No-one has seen it and thus knows if it's good or bad (though the reviews are now coming out and trending positive), and I thought we all wanted more original films and less franchises. If it flops, it's another point in favour of Toy Story sequels and live action remakes into eternity.

All I can think is that it is part of a broader desire to see Disney fail, perhaps with the idea it will lead to Iger being ejected from his position and replaced by someone more like Mike Lindell.

 

[easyrowrdw]

All I can think is that it is part of a broader desire to see Disney fail, perhaps with the idea it will lead to Iger being ejected from his position and replaced by someone more like Mike Lindell.

The MyPillow guy??! What is his connection to Disney or movies? Or is this a typo?

 

[Disney Irish]

The MyPillow guy??! What is his connection to Disney or movies? Or is this a typo?

I don’t think there is any connection, or that anyone wants him to specifically be Disney CEO. More that is what the poster thinks the anti-Disney crowd believes is an ideal CEO these days.

 

[BrianLo]

I think you're on to something!

When discussing Pixar's track record at the box office the past decade, I think it would be fair to ignore the four Covid era movies that basically had no theatrical run. This likely benefits Pixar, as my gut tells me Turning Red would have been a giant bomb, and the others (Onward, Soul, Luca) wouldn't have done very well in a normal box office run.

There may be some internal numbers that reflect that for Pixar though, so they likely now understand they would have lost big money on at least a couple of those had Covid not prevented them from running normally. Which could feed into their crisis of confidence.

The rest of Pixar's stuff the past decade, has mostly been big Billion dollar hits (inflation adjusted). It's really just the bomb that was Lightyear and the money-losing Elemental that would cause this crisis of confidence.

Still, it's a weird new world when the mega-budget summer tentpole from Pixar has no toys for sale at Target.

View attachment 865407

Metrics were that Turning Red and Luca were the bigger of the four. Disney still seems to be reacting as if that was the case.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Well well, we finally have official word on what the ACTUAL budget for Disney/Pixar’s #Elio is thanks to actual reliable trades.

According to Deadline, the film cost $150M to make, not $300M like that lying grifting snake Mr. Jordan Ruimy claimed on World of Reel, and I doubt we should be surprised given Ruimy lied about Captain America: Brave New World had a budget of $380M, when the ACTUAL budget, according to the trades, was $180 million.

Let this be a lesson to all you people who post clickbait and lies from grifters like Jordan Ruimy here on this social media platform again.

Never, and I mean, NEVER post anything like what Jordan Ruimy said here on this platform again unless it’s confirmed by reliable trades like The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, DEADLINE, or The Wrap.

That means you too, @TsWade2.

It’s high time platforms like this went back to a vetting process for when people share info over movies, film budgets, and the truth about them.

 

[TP2000]

Metrics were that Turning Red and Luca were the bigger of the four. Disney still seems to be reacting as if that was the case.

So, no Elio toys, or even a t-shirt, at Target then?

Even though they spent over $200 Million to produce it?

 

[TP2000]

Well well, we finally have official word on what the ACTUAL budget for Disney/Pixar’s #Elio is thanks to actual reliable trades.

According to Deadline, the film cost $150M to make, not $300M like that lying grifting snake Mr. Jordan Ruimy claimed on World of Reel, and I doubt we should be surprised given Ruimy lied about Captain America: Brave New World had a budget of $380M, when the ACTUAL budget, according to the trades, was $180 million.

Let this be a lesson to all you people who post clickbait and lies from grifters like Jordan Ruimy here on this social media platform again.

Never, and I mean, NEVER post anything like what Jordan Ruimy said here on this platform again unless it’s confirmed by reliable trades like The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, DEADLINE, or The Wrap.

That means you too, @TsWade2.

It’s high time platforms like this went back to a vetting process for when people share info over movies, film budgets, and the truth about them.

I'm not entirely sure what all that means, but I will say that I looked at the Google page for Elio and all of the "stars" and multiple "Directors" were entirely unknown to me. None of their names rang a bell. So they must have come rather cheap.

If Pixar spent even $200 Million on producing Elio, I'd love to know where all that money went.

 

[BrianLo]

So, no Elio toys, or even a t-shirt, at Target then?

Even though they spent over $200 Million to produce it?

150 apparently.

But I think that’s usually their MO. With two rare exceptions, they usually are overtly cautious on merch before new franchise releases until they know what they have on their hands.

Those two exceptions are Lightyear (which barely qualifies as new) and Wish, which they clearly had unbridled optimism over. Notoriously they were underprepared for Frozen. In this case it’s a good thing if Elio fails, which I’d give a moderate possibility unless word of mouth saves it.

Ps- I’m at the expo now!

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

150 apparently.

But I think that’s usually their MO. With two rare exceptions, they usually are overtly cautious on merch before new franchise releases until they know what they have on their hands.

Those two exceptions are Lightyear (which barely qualifies as new) and Wish, which they clearly had unbridled optimism over. Notoriously they were underprepared for Frozen. In this case it’s a good thing if Elio fails, which I’d give a moderate possibility unless word of mouth saves it.

Ps- I’m at the expo now!

Which I believe will happen.

 

[Nevermore525]

Reminds me of when Encanto released and there was next to no merchandise produced at the time

 

[Sir_Cliff]

150 apparently.

But I think that’s usually their MO. With two rare exceptions, they usually are overtly cautious on merch before new franchise releases until they know what they have on their hands.

Those two exceptions are Lightyear (which barely qualifies as new) and Wish, which they clearly had unbridled optimism over. Notoriously they were underprepared for Frozen. In this case it’s a good thing if Elio fails, which I’d give a moderate possibility unless word of mouth saves it.

Ps- I’m at the expo now!

Yes, my impression is that the days are long gone when a new Disney/Pixar animated feature was preceded by shelves stacked with merchandise and the characters showing up in the parks.

These days, they seem to err on the side of caution except, as you note, when they seem especially certain it will sell merchandise. Their problem is that they don't seem very good at anticipating what will and what won't sell merchandise!

As for the parks, they are even more cautious these days. It seems like it can take years for them to figure out how to represent something like Coco in the parks whereas films like Hercules and Mulan were preceded by full parades and even Emperor's New Groove had meet-and-greets despite the company's lack of faith in the film.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I just purchased on online Elio movie soundtrack album on vinyl. Can't wait for it to arrive!!!

View attachment 865397

I won't bring you down.
No, no, no, no, no
Ooh-ooh-hoo

 

[easyrowrdw]

I don’t think there is any connection, or that anyone wants him to specifically be Disney CEO. More that is what the poster thinks the anti-Disney crowd believes is an ideal CEO these days.

Okay. I don’t think I’ve ever seen/read anything like that so that’s why I was confused.

 

[Andrew C]

So, no Elio toys, or even a t-shirt, at Target then?

Even though they spent over $200 Million to produce it?

They have happy meal toys!

 

[DisneyHead123]

Yes, my impression is that the days are long gone when a new Disney/Pixar animated feature was preceded by shelves stacked with merchandise and the characters showing up in the parks.

These days, they seem to err on the side of caution except, as you note, when they seem especially certain it will sell merchandise. Their problem is that they don't seem very good at anticipating what will and what won't sell merchandise!

As for the parks, they are even more cautious these days. It seems like it can take years for them to figure out how to represent something like Coco in the parks whereas films like Hercules and Mulan were preceded by full parades and even Emperor's New Groove had meet-and-greets despite the company's lack of faith in the film.

This aligns with what I’ve seen.

Our Target has a dedicated Disney section but most of it is devoted to tried and true characters like the princesses and Fab 5. There might be a handful of toys for new movies (stuffies, plastic characters) but not a full line of playsets like you would see for a Paw Patrol or Jurassic Park movie.

We also have a dedicated Lego section and new Disney movies often get representation there, although not always. I didn’t see anything for Inside Out or Elio.

I did notice 5 Below has a Stitch section in the front for their summer merchandise. Obviously that’s going to be pretty inexpensive stuff though. There are also a fair number of Stitch shirts in stores, but I think that predates the movie and just got a boost when the movie came out.

 

[erasure fan1]

Well, there was no shortage of Elio merch at the resorts when I was there last week. I didn't see anyone purchasing anything but it was well represented. I couldn't say if the parks had the same representation since I wasn't in any of them.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

This aligns with what I’ve seen.

Our Target has a dedicated Disney section but most of it is devoted to tried and true characters like the princesses and Fab 5. There might be a handful of toys for new movies (stuffies, plastic characters) but not a full line of playsets like you would see for a Paw Patrol or Jurassic Park movie.

We also have a dedicated Lego section and new Disney movies often get representation there, although not always. I didn’t see anything for Inside Out or Elio.

I did notice 5 Below has a Stitch section in the front for their summer merchandise. Obviously that’s going to be pretty inexpensive stuff though. There are also a fair number of Stitch shirts in stores, but I think that predates the movie and just got a boost when the movie came out.

Yes, Lilo & Stitch definitely falls into a different category as one of their most profitable franchises even before this remake. Apparently it brought in $2.6 billion for them in 2024, which is pretty remarkable.

The "franchise mandate" seems to extend to merchandising, where they concentrate their efforts on lines that they know will bring in revenue and are happier to scramble to meet demand after the fact rather than risk over-estimating it.

I remember reading around the time Moana came out and there was talk of "disappointing" merchandising comparisons with Frozen that Disney's argument was that it was really when these titles were released on DVD that they start really moving merchandise. Not sure that's true, but it could be part of their calculation that it is easier to estimate and react to streaming number where the risk is less and reward is ultimately greater than with the initial cinema release when it comes to merchandising.

 

[Miss Rori]

I remember reading around the time Moana came out and there was talk of "disappointing" merchandising comparisons with Frozen that Disney's argument was that it was really when these titles were released on DVD that they start really moving merchandise. Not sure that's true, but it could be part of their calculation that it is easier to estimate and react to streaming number where the risk is less and reward is ultimately greater than with the initial cinema release when it comes to merchandising.

Well, there wasn't a big bump for merchandise sales for Lightyear or Wish when they hit physical media/streaming, so I think Disney might be hedging their bets these days when it comes to anything that they absolutely don't see as a "known" quantity like Lilo & Stitch is.