Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Nevermore525]

3 weeks to 3/4 of a billion dollars. How many more weeks to $1b? Three?

Considering that audience is pulled in other directions in coming weeks, I’m going with three.

Will “Dragon” do the same?

The $2 billion live action remake summer?

Dragon could depend on how long it holds premium screens. It will probably lose most once Rebirth hits on July 2

I don’t think it hits $1B but probably gets within $200M of that mark

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

3 weeks to 3/4 of a billion dollars. How many more weeks to $1b? Three?

Considering that audience is pulled in other directions in coming weeks, I’m going with three.

Will “Dragon” do the same?

The $2 billion live action remake summer?

I expect live-action Lilo & Stitch to hit $1B on 6/26.

 

[Disney Irish]

3 weeks to 3/4 of a billion dollars. How many more weeks to $1b? Three?

Considering that audience is pulled in other directions in coming weeks, I’m going with three.

Will “Dragon” do the same?

The $2 billion live action remake summer?

I still question if there is an audience for Dragon, as its too new of a movie to have a live action remake. The franchise itself has never had a $1B movie, topping out at $614M. Each movie has done worse domestically, relying on international to pick up the slack. So I have doubts it'll get to $1B, if we go just based on the previous movies I'd say no more than $750M. But I guess we'll see.

Disney will be testing this theory as well with Moana next year, but I think there more of an audience for that franchise than Dragon.

As for Stitch I see it hitting $1B before the end of the month, maybe just as Elio hits theaters. Heck if I was Disney I'd do a double feature of Stitch and Elio, might help Elio out.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I still question if there is an audience for Dragon, as its too new of a movie to have a live action remake. The franchise itself has never had a $1B movie, topping out at $614M. Each movie has done worse domestically, relying on international to pick up the slack. So I have doubts it'll get to $1B, if we go just based on the previous movies I'd say no more than $750M. But I guess we'll see.

Disney will be testing this theory as well with Moana next year, but I think there more of an audience for that franchise than Dragon.

As for Stitch I see it hitting $1B before the end of the month, maybe just as Elio hits theaters. Heck if I was Disney I'd do a double feature of Stitch and Elio, might help Elio out.

I agree.

THANK YOU.

 

[BrianLo]

Anyone who knows the box office (or has tools I don't) know the chances of it hitting $1 billion? Gotta think that's going to be the big push now.

Normal legs would have it at least safely tripling what it did the week before. So another 200M+ is a safe prediction.

If it actually falls off and starts tracking poorly would be the only situation it would miss. I think it does 1 and a tiny amount of change. Sort of like Moana 2 where people started to think it would miss but really didn’t.

 

[BrianLo]

Where is that as far as marvel flops?

Top 3?

Number four. Behind The Marvels, Incredible Hulk, Black Widow and The Eternals. It’s firmly planted in 4th, nothing will shift that anymore.

Though arguably there’s a very large gap still between The Marvels and everything else. Which lost far more than those other three combined.

 

[Disney Irish]

Number four. Behind The Marvels, Incredible Hulk, Black Widow and The Eternals. It’s firmly planted in 4th, nothing will shift that anymore.

Though arguably there’s a very large gap still between The Marvels and everything else. Which lost far more than those other three combined.

It should surpass Black Widow sometime in the next 2 weeks, if current tracking holds, putting it at number 5. But agree its not likely to go beyond that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It should surpass Black Widow sometime in the next 2 weeks, if current tracking holds, putting it at number 5. But agree its not likely to go beyond that.

Very shocking that you’re arguing the end and p!zzing over Pennies

“He’s dead, Jim”

 

[easyrowrdw]

Number four. Behind The Marvels, Incredible Hulk, Black Widow and The Eternals. It’s firmly planted in 4th, nothing will shift that anymore.

Though arguably there’s a very large gap still between The Marvels and everything else. Which lost far more than those other three combined.

So is it the 4th lowest or 5th lowest? It’s probably immaterial but I’m just confused by your phrasing

 

[Disney Irish]

Very shocking that you’re arguing the end and p!zzing over Pennies

“He’s dead, Jim”

Again just making sure we're being accurate since its still in theaters earning money for the next couple weeks.

If you don't really care about accuracy then maybe don't ask the question of where its at on the list, because it can change over the course of the next week or two.

 

[Disney Irish]

So is it the 4th lowest or 5th lowest? It’s probably immaterial but I’m just confused by your phrasing

Maybe a better way to phrase it is to say its currently 4th from the bottom, and if it does move up past Black Widow as I believe it will it'll be 5th from the bottom.

If a graphic helps, here is the bottom 7 movies in the MCU with the Marvels being at the absolute bottom -

 

[BrianLo]

So is it the 4th lowest or 5th lowest? It’s probably immaterial but I’m just confused by your phrasing

I cannot count.

5th

 

[easyrowrdw]

Maybe a better way to phrase it is to say its currently 4th from the bottom, and if it does move up past Black Widow as I believe it will it'll be 5th from the bottom.

If a graphic helps, here is the bottom 7 movies in the MCU with the Marvels being at the absolute bottom -

View attachment 863578

Thank you! Yes, the graphic helped

I cannot count.

5th

No one’s perfect

 

[BrianLo]

Maybe a better way to phrase it is to say its currently 4th from the bottom, and if it does move up past Black Widow as I believe it will it'll be 5th from the bottom.

If a graphic helps, here is the bottom 7 movies in the MCU with the Marvels being at the absolute bottom -

View attachment 863578

And I very poorly phrased things that I was running a profit calculation in my head. Hence I already had it ahead of Black Widow and Eternals but behinds both Caps. It’ll be 5th either way you want to cut it. Profit or raw.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I still question if there is an audience for Dragon, as its too new of a movie to have a live action remake. The franchise itself has never had a $1B movie, topping out at $614M. Each movie has done worse domestically, relying on international to pick up the slack. So I have doubts it'll get to $1B, if we go just based on the previous movies I'd say no more than $750M. But I guess we'll see.

Disney will be testing this theory as well with Moana next year, but I think there more of an audience for that franchise than Dragon.

As for Stitch I see it hitting $1B before the end of the month, maybe just as Elio hits theaters. Heck if I was Disney I'd do a double feature of Stitch and Elio, might help Elio out.

With all the relatively creative Stitch marketing, I thought a more explicit ad could have been made to imply that Elio is basically Stitch’s fish out of water story in reverse, with the main character going to another world vs. an alien coming to ours. “If you liked L&S…”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe a better way to phrase it is to say its currently 4th from the bottom, and if it does move up past Black Widow as I believe it will it'll be 5th from the bottom.

If a graphic helps, here is the bottom 7 movies in the MCU with the Marvels being at the absolute bottom -

View attachment 863578

That graphic is a little misleading unless it’s adjusted

 

[Disney Irish]

That graphic is a little misleading unless it’s adjusted

Its based on actuals, which is how everyone tracks lists that show movie rankings within a franchise.

No one, outside a few in our merry band of posters, actually care about the inflation adjusted numbers in general let alone for such lists.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Its based on actuals, which is how everyone tracks lists that show movie rankings within a franchise.

No one, outside a few in our merry band of posters, actually care about the inflation adjusted numbers in general let alone for such lists.

Yeah…but adjusted does reflect tickets sold/popularity more than straight numbers when you’re talking 15+ years

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah…but adjusted does reflect tickets sold/popularity more than straight numbers when you’re talking 15+ years

Except you're not extrapolating out such information like amount of tickets sold of one versus another, ie we're not getting that detailed in this forum. Plus not even to mention that overall ticket sales are down across the board over the last 15 years, so its a moot point anyways. Its a gimmick to try and make one movie look worse than another, and its why no one ever uses them in any real analysis of movie rankings. As inflation is always going to exist and a movie released years ago is always going to look better as time goes on compared to current movies. For example Gone with the Wind will always be the highest grossing movie of all time when adjusted for inflation. But in reality you would never say it did better than the likes of Avatar, Endgame, or Titanic, because that is just plain silly. Its why no one really ever uses them in such comparisons and why I've argued against their use here, but some still insist on using them.

So if you want to do the homework to show all those details please be my guest. I for one don't really care all that much because in the end it doesn't really help out the conversation, so am not going to go to all that trouble.

 

[LSLS]

Yeah…but adjusted does reflect tickets sold/popularity more than straight numbers when you’re talking 15+ years

I'm just not convinced it does. I've said before, but if I could have gone to this movie and gotten popcorn/drink with my one kid who wanted to see it for $25, I would have gone. But, neither of us cared that much to justify dropping $50 for it. So while ticket sales is a thing to watch, there is a very real other side of it where people just don't justify spending the insane costs on movies they would have 10 years ago (heck, maybe even 5 years ago).