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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Normal legs would have it at least safely tripling what it did the week before. So another 200M+ is a safe prediction.
If it actually falls off and starts tracking poorly would be the only situation it would miss. I think it does 1 and a tiny amount of change. Sort of like Moana 2 where people started to think it would miss but really didn’t.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Number four. Behind The Marvels, Incredible Hulk, Black Widow and The Eternals. It’s firmly planted in 4th, nothing will shift that anymore.
Though arguably there’s a very large gap still between The Marvels and everything else. Which lost far more than those other three combined.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
It should surpass Black Widow sometime in the next 2 weeks, if current tracking holds, putting it at number 5. But agree its not likely to go beyond that.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Very shocking that you’re arguing the end and p!zzing over Pennies
“He’s dead, Jim”
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
So is it the 4th lowest or 5th lowest? It’s probably immaterial but I’m just confused by your phrasing
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Again just making sure we're being accurate since its still in theaters earning money for the next couple weeks.
If you don't really care about accuracy then maybe don't ask the question of where its at on the list, because it can change over the course of the next week or two.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Maybe a better way to phrase it is to say its currently 4th from the bottom, and if it does move up past Black Widow as I believe it will it'll be 5th from the bottom.
If a graphic helps, here is the bottom 7 movies in the MCU with the Marvels being at the absolute bottom -
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
Thank you! Yes, the graphic helped
No one’s perfectI cannot count.
5th
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
And I very poorly phrased things that I was running a profit calculation in my head. Hence I already had it ahead of Black Widow and Eternals but behinds both Caps. It’ll be 5th either way you want to cut it. Profit or raw.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
With all the relatively creative Stitch marketing, I thought a more explicit ad could have been made to imply that Elio is basically Stitch’s fish out of water story in reverse, with the main character going to another world vs. an alien coming to ours. “If you liked L&S…”
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
That graphic is a little misleading unless it’s adjusted
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Its based on actuals, which is how everyone tracks lists that show movie rankings within a franchise.
No one, outside a few in our merry band of posters, actually care about the inflation adjusted numbers in general let alone for such lists.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Yeah…but adjusted does reflect tickets sold/popularity more than straight numbers when you’re talking 15+ years
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Except you're not extrapolating out such information like amount of tickets sold of one versus another, ie we're not getting that detailed in this forum. Plus not even to mention that overall ticket sales are down across the board over the last 15 years, so its a moot point anyways. Its a gimmick to try and make one movie look worse than another, and its why no one ever uses them in any real analysis of movie rankings. As inflation is always going to exist and a movie released years ago is always going to look better as time goes on compared to current movies. For example Gone with the Wind will always be the highest grossing movie of all time when adjusted for inflation. But in reality you would never say it did better than the likes of Avatar, Endgame, or Titanic, because that is just plain silly. Its why no one really ever uses them in such comparisons and why I've argued against their use here, but some still insist on using them.
So if you want to do the homework to show all those details please be my guest. I for one don't really care all that much because in the end it doesn't really help out the conversation, so am not going to go to all that trouble.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
I'm just not convinced it does. I've said before, but if I could have gone to this movie and gotten popcorn/drink with my one kid who wanted to see it for $25, I would have gone. But, neither of us cared that much to justify dropping $50 for it. So while ticket sales is a thing to watch, there is a very real other side of it where people just don't justify spending the insane costs on movies they would have 10 years ago (heck, maybe even 5 years ago).
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
In my opinion, the prices are out of control. Families cant afford to go multiple movies regularly. In my opinion, only dual income no kids can afford to walk up and go to every new movie they want to.
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
So do we think $350 million is the baseline expectation for an MCU movie at this point? Hulk was 17 years ago so it doesn’t feel particularly informative. That just leaves The Marvels under 350.
Well there are diminishing returns in business, and they understand that, however. With inflation also comes the cost to make the movies have risen too. It is not sustainable when the drops are so drastic as the costs went up.