Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

Maybe a better way to phrase it is to say its currently 4th from the bottom, and if it does move up past Black Widow as I believe it will it'll be 5th from the bottom.

If a graphic helps, here is the bottom 7 movies in the MCU with the Marvels being at the absolute bottom -

View attachment 863578

And I very poorly phrased things that I was running a profit calculation in my head. Hence I already had it ahead of Black Widow and Eternals but behinds both Caps. It’ll be 5th either way you want to cut it. Profit or raw.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I still question if there is an audience for Dragon, as its too new of a movie to have a live action remake. The franchise itself has never had a $1B movie, topping out at $614M. Each movie has done worse domestically, relying on international to pick up the slack. So I have doubts it'll get to $1B, if we go just based on the previous movies I'd say no more than $750M. But I guess we'll see.

Disney will be testing this theory as well with Moana next year, but I think there more of an audience for that franchise than Dragon.

As for Stitch I see it hitting $1B before the end of the month, maybe just as Elio hits theaters. Heck if I was Disney I'd do a double feature of Stitch and Elio, might help Elio out.

With all the relatively creative Stitch marketing, I thought a more explicit ad could have been made to imply that Elio is basically Stitch’s fish out of water story in reverse, with the main character going to another world vs. an alien coming to ours. “If you liked L&S…”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe a better way to phrase it is to say its currently 4th from the bottom, and if it does move up past Black Widow as I believe it will it'll be 5th from the bottom.

If a graphic helps, here is the bottom 7 movies in the MCU with the Marvels being at the absolute bottom -

View attachment 863578

That graphic is a little misleading unless it’s adjusted

 

[Disney Irish]

That graphic is a little misleading unless it’s adjusted

Its based on actuals, which is how everyone tracks lists that show movie rankings within a franchise.

No one, outside a few in our merry band of posters, actually care about the inflation adjusted numbers in general let alone for such lists.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Its based on actuals, which is how everyone tracks lists that show movie rankings within a franchise.

No one, outside a few in our merry band of posters, actually care about the inflation adjusted numbers in general let alone for such lists.

Yeah…but adjusted does reflect tickets sold/popularity more than straight numbers when you’re talking 15+ years

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah…but adjusted does reflect tickets sold/popularity more than straight numbers when you’re talking 15+ years

Except you're not extrapolating out such information like amount of tickets sold of one versus another, ie we're not getting that detailed in this forum. Plus not even to mention that overall ticket sales are down across the board over the last 15 years, so its a moot point anyways. Its a gimmick to try and make one movie look worse than another, and its why no one ever uses them in any real analysis of movie rankings. As inflation is always going to exist and a movie released years ago is always going to look better as time goes on compared to current movies. For example Gone with the Wind will always be the highest grossing movie of all time when adjusted for inflation. But in reality you would never say it did better than the likes of Avatar, Endgame, or Titanic, because that is just plain silly. Its why no one really ever uses them in such comparisons and why I've argued against their use here, but some still insist on using them.

So if you want to do the homework to show all those details please be my guest. I for one don't really care all that much because in the end it doesn't really help out the conversation, so am not going to go to all that trouble.

 

[LSLS]

Yeah…but adjusted does reflect tickets sold/popularity more than straight numbers when you’re talking 15+ years

I'm just not convinced it does. I've said before, but if I could have gone to this movie and gotten popcorn/drink with my one kid who wanted to see it for $25, I would have gone. But, neither of us cared that much to justify dropping $50 for it. So while ticket sales is a thing to watch, there is a very real other side of it where people just don't justify spending the insane costs on movies they would have 10 years ago (heck, maybe even 5 years ago).

 

[Disstevefan1]

I'm just not convinced it does. I've said before, but if I could have gone to this movie and gotten popcorn/drink with my one kid who wanted to see it for $25, I would have gone. But, neither of us cared that much to justify dropping $50 for it. So while ticket sales is a thing to watch, there is a very real other side of it where people just don't justify spending the insane costs on movies they would have 10 years ago (heck, maybe even 5 years ago).

In my opinion, the prices are out of control. Families cant afford to go multiple movies regularly. In my opinion, only dual income no kids can afford to walk up and go to every new movie they want to.

 

[easyrowrdw]

If a graphic helps, here is the bottom 7 movies in the MCU with the Marvels being at the absolute bottom -

View attachment 863578

So do we think $350 million is the baseline expectation for an MCU movie at this point? Hulk was 17 years ago so it doesn’t feel particularly informative. That just leaves The Marvels under 350.

 

[celluloid]

So do we think $350 million is the baseline expectation for an MCU movie at this point? Hulk was 17 years ago so it doesn’t feel particularly informative. That just leaves The Marvels under 350.

Well there are diminishing returns in business, and they understand that, however. With inflation also comes the cost to make the movies have risen too. It is not sustainable when the drops are so drastic as the costs went up.

 

[brideck]

So do we think $350 million is the baseline expectation for an MCU movie at this point? Hulk was 17 years ago so it doesn’t feel particularly informative. That just leaves The Marvels under 350.

I had said $400m a week or so ago, but I think Irish countered with $350m. It's definitely somewhere in that zone for a "normal" (non-event) MCU release.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Well there are diminishing returns in business, and they understand that, however. With inflation also comes the cost to make the movies have risen too. It is not sustainable when the drops are so drastic as the costs went up.

Good points.

I had said $400m a week or so ago, but I think Irish countered with $350m. It's definitely somewhere in that zone for a "normal" (non-event) MCU release.

Ah, okay. I think I did read that, but just forgot.

 

[Disney Irish]

So do we think $350 million is the baseline expectation for an MCU movie at this point? Hulk was 17 years ago so it doesn’t feel particularly informative. That just leaves The Marvels under 350.

I think I mentioned it before, but $350M-$400M is a good baseline for the floor for MCU expectations in my opinion.

 

[DKampy]

The John Wick spinoff is also action fatigue, which follows the downward trend of the year for action and Horror and Family being the trend that audiences have gone to and both genres have had better chances at success.

I don’t know if Ballerina is proof that action movie fatigue is there…. John Wick has never even been a 500 million franchise…There is only 1 that did over 400…and prequels never do as well as the franchise proper in which they spun from….Ballerina should of been released outside of summer…. With so much competition…. Not everything was going to hit…. And IMO…. I thought this was the biggest candidate from the get go

 

[celluloid]

I don’t know if Ballerina is proof that action movie fatigue is there…. John Wick has never even been a 500 million franchise…There is only 1 that did over 400…and prequels never do as well as the franchise proper in which they spun from….Ballerina should of been released outside of summer…. With so much competition…. Not everything was going to hit…. And IMO…. I thought this was the biggest candidate from the get go

That's fair,
I think that is more to the point that John Wick's spinoff is still performing near an expected a post fourth sequel spin off would. Which unfortunately this time, even with the less budget is still not enough to carry it to much probability between two family giants (Lilo and How to Train Your Dragon) with major releases for horror coming.(28 years later and M3GAN 2.0)on their way in the next two weeks.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm just not convinced it does. I've said before, but if I could have gone to this movie and gotten popcorn/drink with my one kid who wanted to see it for $25, I would have gone. But, neither of us cared that much to justify dropping $50 for it. So while ticket sales is a thing to watch, there is a very real other side of it where people just don't justify spending the insane costs on movies they would have 10 years ago (heck, maybe even 5 years ago).

I agree with that…but it’s kinda different argument

Adjusted ticket sales shows how many people felt it worth it to go…despite “all in” costs which you can compartmentalize

Not the same as our argument on park tickets…where you really can’t

As long as movie tickets have roughly followed inflation?

 

[DKampy]

That's fair,
I think that is more to the point that John Wick's spinoff is still performing near an expected a post fourth sequel spin off would. Which unfortunately this time, even with the less budget is still not enough to carry it to much probability between two family giants (Lilo and How to Train Your Dragon) with major releases for horror coming.(28 years later and M3GAN 2.0)on their way in the next two weeks.

We will see what happens…. I do expect How To Train Your Dragon to do well….Megan and 28 Years Later I am less sure…. Plus I am not sure if the former is of the horror genre…. I think Megan’s trailers has felt more action oriented ala Terminator 2

 

[celluloid]

We will see what happens…. I do expect How To Train Your Dragon to do well….Megan and 28 Years Later I am less sure…. Plus I am not sure if the former is of the horror genre…. I think Megan’s trailers has felt more action oriented ala Terminator 2

Definitely the direction it went. Still leans into horror first with the campy kills and blood focus that T2 did not have.

Who knows how 28 and Megan will do on their own. Such a gap for the 28 installment and a budget close to Balerina.

And I don't know how great any of them will do, but it will bump Balerina way out of the top three or further, which was the competition point discussed.

 

[DKampy]

Definitely the direction it went. Still leans into horror first with the campy kills and blood focus that T2 did not have.

Not to sure about being blood focused…. Megan 2.0 is rated pg-13

 

[celluloid]

Not to sure about being blood focused…. Megan 2.0 is rated pg-13

I shouodnuabe hyphenated there instead of writing it thst way. A focus is It has bloody kills and camp. Director itself said at it is still horror at its core.
..."strong violent, bloody images..."

The first one's theatrical version was also PG13.