Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

It’s a franchise that never performs up to task and some kinda gunnsian/incredibles mid century mod look…

We’ll see how it does. Not optimistic…but not definitive. I have been on a heater with my predictions this year so far. Think it’s gonna be a bad summer for the ole mouse

I am not sure how Fantastic Four will perform… I suspect at minimum better then Thunderbolts… as their more well known and seem to have more buzz

I am not a Marvel fanboy…. I just like good movies no matter the genre…. Thunderbolts was my most anticipated comic book movie of 2025….as it look to be something different and it satisfied… I am interested in Fantastic Four as the 60’s idealistic future setting appears to be something different in today’s superhero climate… plus anything with Pedro Pascal has my interest

 

[Tha Realest]

Be careful with quick interpretations of the test screenings.

THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS Test Screening Reactions Misinterpreted; Movie Received "Excellent" Scores

It seems the negative reactions to The Fantastic Four: First Steps were blown out of proportion, as the person who shared their thoughts on the movie has revealed how those were taken and misrepresented.

comicbookmovie.com

OP said there were reports the screenings were excellent. This is was the only story I had seen about the early response, and Sneider cited multiple sources (not just some dude yelling “mid”)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I am not sure how Fantastic Four will perform… I suspect at minimum better then Thunderbolts… as their more well known and seem to have more buzz

I am not a Marvel fanboy…. I just like good movies no matter the genre…. Thunderbolts was my most anticipated comic book movie of 2025….as it look to be something different and it satisfied… I am interested in Fantastic Four as the 60’s idealistic future setting appears to be something different in today’s superhero climate… plus anything with Pedro Pascal has my interest

It will do better than that

Thunderbolts flopped…”ratings” be damned

I’m guessing FF somewhere in the $525-$600 range.

Which is meh for marvel…no matter how much shorter we try to move the goalposts in here

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Be careful with quick interpretations of the test screenings.

THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS Test Screening Reactions Misinterpreted; Movie Received "Excellent" Scores

It seems the negative reactions to The Fantastic Four: First Steps were blown out of proportion, as the person who shared their thoughts on the movie has revealed how those were taken and misrepresented.

comicbookmovie.com

Grain of salt…for sure.

But fantastic four is always a tough sell anyway. I compared it to “the muppets of marvel”…and I’ll stick to it

 

[Disney Irish]

OP said there were reports the screenings were excellent. This is was the only story I had seen about the early response, and Sneider cited multiple sources (not just some dude yelling “mid”)

I trust Sneider about as far as I can throw him, as he usually quotes people who claim to be "insiders" but aren't directly tied to what he is reporting on, ie in this case they haven't even seen the movie (which your article even stated). If you read the article I posted the early screening "source" appears to be from one guy and it was stuff taken out of context. And that many people at the screening polled said it was excellent according to this same source. The people who were more critical appear to be more hardcore comic fans, so of course they are going to be critical. That doesn't mean it was a "mess" or anything else that Sneider and those others claimed the "source" said, as the person who actually saw it refuted that claim.

Basically take these quick reactions with a huge truck load of salt.

 

[Disney Irish]

Grain of salt…for sure.

But fantastic four is always a tough sell anyway. I compared it to “the muppets of marvel”…and I’ll stick to it

It remains to be seen how this iteration will do. I don't automatically subscribe to the thought that F4 can't be accepted by the masses or are past their prime. Just like everything its execution not necessarily the material that is the tough sell.

 

[DKampy]

OP said there were reports the screenings were excellent. This is was the only story I had seen about the early response, and Sneider cited multiple sources (not just some dude yelling “mid”)

I guess call them rumors… but I have heard them…. Not saying they are accurate…. I actually don’t put much faith either way…. I have seen quite a few so called early screenings that turned out false…. Just reporting what I heard… as I stated in my original post we won’t know until it hits theaters

 

[BrianLo]

I don’t have terribly high expectations for Elio, unfortunately. But I think F4 could do reasonably well. There seems to be expectancy there, Thunderbolts on the other hand had very little and at least turned out to be good.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Thunderbolts on the other hand had very little and at least turned out to be good.

That would probably matter much more at the Sundance film festival

 

[BrianLo]

That would probably matter much more at the Sundance film festival

I mean it matters - because I at least enjoyed it. That’s all there was to my comment.

 

[Nevermore525]

Updated weekend numbers for Lilo and Stitch

$61.8M second weekend domestically (58% drop)

Global cume stands at $613.4M ($278.9M Dom/$334.5M Int)

Lilo & Stitch (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Lilo & Stitch (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 4 Superman cost an alleged $225M. May need to get to around $700M+ to break even at the box office.

Can Warner's DC Studios Rise From the Ashes With 'Superman?' | Analysis

James Gunn's Superman reboot not only aims to restart the entire DC universe but is one of Warner Bros.' most crucial releases of the year

www.thewrap.com

Man of Steel made $670 million worldwide in 2013, which I believed WB considered a disappointment at the time

That movie also had a $225 million production budget

$225 million is actually less than the $270 million budget of Superman Returns, and that's not adjusting for 20 years of inflation!

 

[Nevermore525]

Man of Steel made $670 million worldwide in 2013, which I believed WB considered a disappointment at the time

That movie also had a $225 million production budget

$225 million is actually less than the $270 million budget of Superman Returns, and that's not adjusting for 20 years of inflation!

Well, guess we’ll see what James Gunn’s latest Team Up Super Hero Movie that happens to feature Superman can do.

 

[Disney Irish]

Man of Steel made $670 million worldwide in 2013, which I believed WB considered a disappointment at the time

That movie also had a $225 million production budget

$225 million is actually less than the $270 million budget of Superman Returns, and that's not adjusting for 20 years of inflation!

Yes, but that was the start of the DCEU and before all the troubles it had later on, especially with the SnyderBros and the #SnyderCut and all that drama. And not to mention now the third time rebooting the property on the large screen in the last 2 decades. And that doesn't even talk about the 2 other depictions of the character on TV during the same time, both of which we're beloved by fans.

In my opinion DC is in worse off shape than the MCU. And watching all the recent trailers I don't see them making any changes to make it better. For example when has Superman ever yelled at Lois in either the comics, on TV, or any previous movie as is shown in the latest trailers? He hasn't until Gunn got his hands on him and that doesn't bode well for the rest of the film to me. Not to mention the suit looks baggy on him and doesn't show him being all the muscular. So a bunch of negatives to me that general audiences won't like, but I guess we'll see.

Point is I think if they got $670M today they'd consider that a success, even if it didn't actually breakeven, given where the franchise has been the last decade.

 

[BrianLo]

In the sake of fairness, break even would be more like 560.

It’ll be one to watch closely. If it doesn’t land then I think we’ve reached the clear end of theatrical DCEU. I guess another crack at Batman?

Marvel has room to fall still. There’s still going to be demand for Spiderman, Deadpool, RDJ and the OG Avengers and maybe some iteration of X Men.

 

[DKampy]

Yes, but that was the start of the DCEU and before all the troubles it had later on, especially with the SnyderBros and the #SnyderCut and all that drama. And not to mention now the third time rebooting the property on the large screen in the last 2 decades. And that doesn't even talk about the 2 other depictions of the character on TV during the same time, both of which we're beloved by fans.

In my opinion DC is in worse off shape than the MCU. And watching all the recent trailers I don't see them making any changes to make it better. For example when has Superman ever yelled at Lois in either the comics, on TV, or any previous movie as is shown in the latest trailers? He hasn't until Gunn got his hands on him and that doesn't bode well for the rest of the film to me. Not to mention the suit looks baggy on him and doesn't show him being all the muscular. So a bunch of negatives to me that general audiences won't like, but I guess we'll see.

Point is I think if they got $670M today they'd consider that a success, even if it didn't actually breakeven, given where the franchise has been the last decade.

There is definitely more pressure on Superman than F4…. As bad as some of the Marvel movies have been… they don’t come close to the stink of Shazam, Black Adam, The Aquaman sequel etc IMO…. In a sense DC is in a similar shape as Marvel…. As both it is more important to change the narrative then breaking the bank with profits… the only difference is if Superman fails Gunn’s DCEU is in jeopardy…where as Marvel still has some characters they can fall back on

 

[BrianLo]

I’ll log that expectations for Superman and Fantastic 4 are pretty similar. Even if the wheels don’t come off the MCU entirely in the same fashion.

600-700+ and they are pretty happy with solid franchise starters. 500 is workable but disappointing. 400 and they are at risk of being dumped for a decade. I can’t imagine either crashes and burns below 400.

 

[Disney Irish]

In the sake of fairness, break even would be more like 560.

It’ll be one to watch closely. If it doesn’t land then I think we’ve reached the clear end of theatrical DCEU. I guess another crack at Batman?

Marvel has room to fall still. There’s still going to be demand for Spiderman, Deadpool, RDJ and the OG Avengers and maybe some iteration of X Men.

To be fair to Gunn, while I don't like what he appears to be doing with Superman, this isn't the DCEU. That ended in 2023 with Aquaman 2. This is a reboot, now called just the DC Universe, or DCU, an even more obvious copy of the MCU, is starting with Superman and continuing with Supergirl next year..

The Batman is getting a sequel with Matt Reeves still writing/directing and Pattinson reprising his role as the Dark Knight, set to release in 2027. It is not officially part of the DCU, rather its its own universe.

But I believe you're right, the MCU has a lot more room to fall or continue to rise as the case maybe. They have been and continue to be in a better place than DC.

 

[celluloid]

And MCU or DCU, neither are helping each other when they don't have big standouts but nearby releases.

It is like if Blumhouse and A24 just started making only mid to low commercial budget horror that could not profit in theaters.

They would both hurt each other.

 

[Disney Irish]

And MCU or DCU, neither are helping each other when they don't have big standouts but nearby releases.

It is like if Blumhouse and A24 just started making only mid to low commercial budget horror that could not profit in theaters.

They would both hurt each other.

I think the difference there is that Blumhouse, A24, and I'll even throw Neon in there, never have had an expectation to make profit during theatrical, because traditionally their movies don't actually turn a profit during theatrical. Whereas Disney and WBD have traditionally expected profit during theatrical with the MCU and DCU, albeit likely have changed that expectation post-pandemic as has been discussed here.