Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

There was no need to cover that, as that's obviously part of the difference in pretending Burbank only spent $25 Million to market Lilo & Stitch when it actually spent $100 Million.

There's also the difference in math between our two models factored in to that; Fast Math vs. Damp Cocktail Napkin Math, and that he left out the losses on The Amateur over at Disney's 20th Century studio.

No harm, no foul. Just fun box office conversation!

The point being is that you make up marketing numbers just as easily with your "damp cocktail napkin", because no where is there actually a confirmation of Disney spending $100M for marketing on Stitch. This is an assumption on your part. The articles you even have posted has no mention of marketing let alone the actual budget listed for Stitch.

But BrianLo has tried to provide a more accurate calculation that appears to be accurate based on the actual financials from Disney and Deadline reporting, so even if its "Fast Math", its more accurate than your "damp cocktail napkin". So it gives us real information for our "fun" box office conversations.

 

[TP2000]

The number for the weekend had been updated already by the time you posted on Sunday afternoon, if you had bothered to actually look.

Oh, shoot. As I remember it, I was just sort of waiting around on Sunday afternoon for my Greek salad to chill before I went to the next barbecue. I should have really focused on the topic at hand instead of casually posting on a fun-fun-fun site.

I'm sorry but where in that article does Variety say that Disney spent $100M for marketing for Stitch? Did you misread or did you post the wrong article?

Sorry, wrong article. Good catch! This is from the same author, same day, same Variety, but this is the correct article...

Memorial Day Box Office Record Breaker! ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Debuts to Massive $183 Million, ‘Mission: Impossible’ Scores Series-Best $77 Million

"Lilo & Stitch" and "Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning" fueled a Memorial Day weekend box office record.

variety.com

Disney just spent $100 Million on marketing Lilo & Stitch, which is entirely believable and average for Disney. And it gives me confidence to continue using the marketing formula based on production budget I've been using in the past.

Fair enough, but it still doesn't mean Stitch won't clear enough to cover any losses so far in 2025. The calculation appears to be about $850M WW total needing to cover that. And I think its safe to say Stitch should clear that fairly easily.

I just think it's going to be closer than we may believe after this heady experience of having a Disney movie actually do well in its opening weekend. We all got so excited, didn't we?!

Lilo & Stitch is not performing overseas as strongly as it should be, based on its strong domestic box office. It will bear watching in the weeks ahead, but with a population of only 35 Million under age 40 in Japan, I'm not sure that countries box office premiere on June 6th is going to be enough to erase the overseas deficit Lilo & Stitch has started out with.

 

[TP2000]

The $2B Disney box office was based on Sunday’s reported numbers and was a quote from the Deadline article that @Disney Irish quoted.

Yes, totally get that. And thank you for posting that info!

There was just a bit of a discrepancy as another poster or two wanted to separate out Moana 2 and Mufasa from that 2025 total as they were released in calendar year 2024.

I'm happy to look at both sets of numbers; total box office for 2025, and total box office for movies released in 2025.

 

[Nevermore525]

Yes, totally get that. And thank you for posting that info!

There was just a bit of a discrepancy as another poster or two wanted to separate out Moana 2 and Mufasa from that 2025 total as they were released in calendar year 2024.

I'm happy to look at both sets of numbers; total box office for 2025, and total box office for movies released in 2025.

Just gets fuzzy when you have to prorate budget/marketing as the production budgets of the 2024 films since films are amortized over the revenue generating life of the film including when it’s for sale and all.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh, shoot. As I remember it, I was just sort of waiting around on Sunday afternoon for my Greek salad to chill before I went to the next barbecue. I should have really focused on the topic at hand instead of casually posting on a fun-fun-fun site.

Well maybe leave the "math" to a time when you can spend more than 8 seconds on it. I mean this isn't a Google search its math!

Sorry, wrong article. Good catch! This is from the same author, same day, same Variety, but this is the correct article...

Memorial Day Box Office Record Breaker! ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Debuts to Massive $183 Million, ‘Mission: Impossible’ Scores Series-Best $77 Million

"Lilo & Stitch" and "Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning" fueled a Memorial Day weekend box office record.

variety.com

Disney just spent $100 Million on marketing Lilo & Stitch, which is entirely believable and average for Disney. And it gives me confidence to continue using the marketing formula based on production budget I've been using in the past.

Thank you. I think the point being is that its not a hard and fast rule that it must be x amount based on 50% of production. As if this number Variety reported is true Disney didn't spend 50%, they went 100% of production for marketing. Which as has been discussed before is common that its not a specific percentage, its not always 50% as it can be more or less depending on many many factors including the whole post-theatrical marketing which is included into the overall marketing. Which is why the math is always murky, and why trying to attribute the entire marketing budget to the theatrical earnings is just silly and it'll never give you a reality of the profit/loss of JUST the box office earnings.

I just think it's going to be closer than we may believe after this heady experience of having a Disney movie actually do well in its opening weekend. We all got so excited, didn't we?!

Lilo & Stitch is not performing overseas as strongly as it should be, based on its strong domestic box office. It will bear watching in the weeks ahead, but with a population of only 35 Million under age 40 in Japan, I'm not sure that countries box office premiere on June 6th is going to be enough to erase the overseas deficit Lilo & Stitch has started out with.

I don't think international needs to do as much heavy lifting here as other films have in the past, but we'll see.

 

[Disney Irish]

Just gets fuzzy when you have to prorate budget/marketing as the production budgets of the 2024 films since films are amortized over the revenue generating life of the film including when it’s for sale and all.

A bunch of us have tried to tell him, but he can't wrap his head around it for some reason.

 

[Chi84]

A bunch of us have tried to tell him, but he can't wrap his head around it for some reason.

What does it mean when you keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result?

 

[brideck]

What does it mean when you keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result?

It means you haven't lost faith in humanity's ability to learn... even when you maybe should have.

 

[Disney Irish]

What does it mean when you keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result?

Well I mean I've questioned my (and many here) sanity many times posting here over the years.

 

[DKampy]

What does it mean when you keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result?

Or in some cases it’s done for attention… as does my cat who stands on top of her condo and swings the walll picture… cause she knows it will get immediate attention

 

[Chi84]

It means you haven't lost faith in humanity's ability to learn... even when you maybe should have.

Humanity may be a broader characterization than I intended.

 

[TP2000]

Or in some cases it’s done for attention… as does my cat who stands on top of her condo and swings the walll picture… cause she knows it will get immediate attention

Or in many cases it's done to further the on-topic discussion on a discussion forum.

The only main discrepancy in the "math" is that some folks ascribe to a belief that a studio should only have to be charged half or less for marketing than what they are likely spending; the 25% of the production budget formula, instead of counting 50% of the marketing budget which is the reality the big studios are routinely spending on their tentpoles.

Heck, several Disney movies have gone well over the 50% mark in recent years; the $140 Million that Variety reported was spent on The Little Mermaid (against a production budget of $250 Million) and the $100 Million that Variety just reported was spent on Lilo & Stitch (against its bargain basement production budget of $100 Million).

Allegedly, we're going to be following up a year or more from now on all those 25% guesstimates here when posttheatrical financials are reported in future fiscal quarters.

But I'm not going to wait around for a post that may never arrive in 2026 about Snow White or Thunderbolts. This thread is about the box office now, and what Disney is making (or more often losing) at the box office against their giant production budgets and expensive global marketing campaigns.

We have access to reliable current data on production budgets, and widely accepted industry estimates of marketing budgets, plus daily updates on global box office. So let's talk about it now!

 

[Tony the Tigger]

What does it mean when you keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result?

It’s to the point I can’t even bother to read responses to certain people. Scroll, scroll, scroll…

 

[TP2000]

With the recent talk of Moana 2 and Mufasa box office, it's probably best to summarize them and wrap it into a total for 2024, even though the bulk of their box office came in the Winter of '25. So here's the 8 big movies from various Disney studios in 2024.

Top line data is that Disney spent $1.09 Billion in production costs for those eight movies in '24, and likely spent another $545 Million on their marketing budgets. Combined, those movies did $2.376 Billion at the domestic box office, and another $3.384 Billion at the overseas box office. Disney's 60% take of the domestic box office was $1.426 Billion, and their 40% take of the overseas box office was $1.354.

Disney took in $2.780 Billion at the global box office, against production and marketing costs around $1.635 Billion. For a net profit of about $1.145 Billion for calendar year 2024! It's easy to see that was all made possible by two or three movies; Inside Out 2, Moana 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine. The others were money losers or eeked out a small profit.

The question for 2025 then becomes; what are the next two or three Billion Dollar movies after Lilo & Stitch to ensure Disney ends '25 in the black? That stain on the carpet that Rachel Zegler left is still there, remember.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

 

[Chi84]

It’s to the point I can’t even bother to read responses to certain people. Scroll, scroll, scroll…

I’m sure your attention was noted and appreciated

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think you're making a joke here, but what is normal in this context? As I've been hearing this idea that we're about to "return to normal" at the box office for the past 5 years in this forum, but its yet to happen in any meaningful way. We have spurts and glimpses of it, but it never actually materializes. So I question the metric used here to determine "normal". And if its in reference to a "Disney normal" or their lack of hitting it in 2025, I ask for what era because there have been many "Disney normal" decades over its 100 years of existence from "failure normal" to "ruling the box office normal".

Also just on a personal note, I hate when people describe things as "normal", because in reality there is no such thing. Normal is a construct of someones perception of what is pleasant.

Just noticed that a good bit of back and forth abort the status of seats not available at booking?

Seems rather trivial on the whole

As far as the rest…no jokes whatsoever

 

[Disney Irish]

The only main discrepancy in the "math" is that some folks ascribe to a belief that a studio should only have to be charged half or less for marketing than what they are likely spending; the 25% of the production budget formula, instead of counting 50% of the marketing budget which is the reality the big studios are routinely spending on their tentpoles.

That is not at all what was discussed and is a broad mischaracterization of why the 25% number was suggested, and I think you know it. If you don't want to use the calculation suggested fine, but don't mischaracterize why it was suggested in the first place, that is just down right rude and insulting to @BrianLo and others who have tried in good faith to provide more accurate numbers for discussion.

 

[Disney Irish]

Just noticed that a good bit of back and forth abort the status of seats not available at booking?

Seems rather trivial on the whole

As far as the rest…no jokes whatsoever

So what is "back to normal" in your post suppose to mean if not a joke?

 

[DisneyHead123]

Yes, I am saying that. Because just a few minutes earlier I hadn't gotten out the calculator and done the math and looked at the overseas box office specifically. Looking at the current data in slightly more depth (actually just a 90 second look instead of a 5 second look), it's now apparent that Lilo & Stitch is underperforming notably overseas.

Compared to previous recent live action remakes, Lilo & Stitch should be doing about 120% to 140% of its domestic box office overseas. But instead, Lilo & Stitch is only doing about 95% of its domestic box office overseas. When it opens in Japan next week as its last overseas market, that country is not going to be enough to make up that missing overseas box office.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it gains more ground overseas via word of mouth. I’m not sure if Stitch is as well known internationally as he is in the US, and the whole Millennial nostalgia thing might not apply globally. Even so, it’s an adorable movie and people who were puzzled by posters of a drooling blue alien early on might be won over as they hear more about it.

 

[TP2000]

That is not at all what was discussed and is a broad mischaracterization of why the 25% number was suggested, and I think you know it.

As I remember, the concept of only counting 25% of production costs for marketing was suggested because it pushes the marketing costs out into future years for a sort of pre-marketing for future potential streaming rentals.

My point is they spent the money now to market the movies now, so that's what it cost them now. 50% of production costs on marketing is not something invented in 2018 for the new streaming model. An assumption that a movie studio spends 50% of its production budget on marketing goes back decades.

Although, if it were still 1995, maybe you could make the claim that you could pretend they only spent 25% on marketing because the rest will help future VHS rentals next year at Blockbuster?

If you don't want to use the calculation suggested fine, but don't mischaracterize why it was suggested in the first place, that is just down right rude and insulting to @BrianLo and others who have tried in good faith to provide more accurate numbers for discussion.

He's an adult and a genuinely nice person, and we've enjoyed each other's online discussions for many, many years now. I have read his opinion on why Disney spending $100 Million on marketing Lilo & Stitch in May, 2025 should only be counted as $25 Million (25% of its $100 Million production budget), but it just gets too wonky for me to factor in to the daily numbers in a discussion about box office profit now, not a year or two from now.

Plus, there's the fact there's no real ability to circle back 18 months from now and see what rental income came in on it.

So I'm just going to stick with the industry standard practice of assuming 50% of the production budget was spent on marketing, unless Disney or reputable sources say otherwise, like they have recently with $140 Million spent marketing The Little Mermaid and $100 Million on Lilo & Stitch.

If it weren't for the Variety article saying Burbank just spent $100 Million on it, I'd consider it a $50 Million marketing spend.