The problem there is that you are quoting me from Saturday, where I was referring to only Thursday/Friday data that came in Saturday morning, before we had full weekend estimates as quoted in that Deadline article from Sunday.
But, now that we have the full weekend's data to use (because it's now Tuesday) the numbers look different than they did Saturday morning.
Lilo & Stich has now made
$361,300,000 at the global box office as of last night.
Using that updated data through Monday, the formula used for global box office still stands as very useful.
A couple things there. First, it's not that bad. My calculations after this weekend's full box office has come in puts Burbank at a $460 Million loss and narrowing.
Second, they aren't "my calculations" for production costs. They are the costs attributed to The Numbers website who uses widely reported data from reputable industry sources like Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, etc. The marketing costs I use are the widely accepted formula that most studios spend at least half their production budget on marketing. But with Disney's bloated mega-budget movies, I purposely cap that at $100 Million. Unless, Disney themselves admits they spent more, like the $140 Million they bragged they spent on marketing The Little Mermaid to prove to the Silver Lake brunch crowd that they aren't racists. But generally, it's 50% of production or $100 Million on marketing, whichever is smaller.
And third, I was responding to someone who noted Disney had just crossed the
$2 Billion box office figure for 2025, but they were including the two movies released in the last month of 2024 (
Moana 2 and
Mufasa) who both had successful box office performance for the next several months. We can certainly back out those 2024 movies and pretend that they didn't sell tickets in Winter, 2025 if you'd like.
That would look like this...
View attachment 861015
Captain America 4:
$180 Production, $90 Marketing, $120 Domestic, $85 Overseas =
$65 Million Loss
Snow White: $270 Production, $100 Marketing, $52 Domestic, $47 Overseas =
$271 Million Loss
The Amateur: $60 Production, $30 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $21 Overseas =
$44 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: $180 Production, $90 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $73 Overseas =
$92 Million Loss and Narrowing
Lilo & Stitch: $100 Production, $100 Marketing*, $110 Domestic, $72 Overseas =
$18 Million Loss and Narrowing FAST!
*Out of formula marketing budget of $100 Million per Variety reporting last week.
Burbank Total Thus Far on 5/27/25 = $460 Million Loss, but narrowing nicely thanks to Lilo & Stitch
Based on the numbers above, it would look to me like
Lilo & Stitch needs to pull in about another $900 Million at the global box office to erase that $460 Million deficit Burbank is currently in. The exact amount depends on the domestic/overseas ticketing mix obviously, but right now
Lilo & Stitch is
not performing like it should overseas. That's the only downside to the otherwise good news for that cheaply made movie.
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As I remember it, I was just sort of waiting around on Sunday afternoon for my Greek salad to chill before I went to the next barbecue. I should have really focused on the topic at hand instead of casually posting on a fun-fun-fun site.
