Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[celluloid]

Looks... Oh, it's another article from 2023. Of course he cared that there were 4 bombs in the same year without any sort of hit to offset them.

We don't seem to really be getting the same sort of angsty stories at present, though I'd be happy to read them if they exist. It's almost as if he cares more if a whole slate of movies makes a profit than individual ones. Obviously, there are certain movies in the slate that more profit is expected to come from to make that happen, so if Stitch, Zootopia, FF, or Avatar were to have significant problems the story will be different at that point.

Almost as if the 2023 article was on a year so awful after he was supposed to be saving the company from what he left the last time, and now he does not care because he will be out of there by the time any of that future stuff hits the fan.

 

[brideck]

Almost as if the 2023 article was on a year so awful after he was supposed to be saving the company from what he left the last time, and now he does not care because he will be out of there by the time any of that future stuff hits the fan.

I wouldn't say he doesn't care. This (well-trod) article pretty clearly lays out the strategy and where he thinks the profit centers are. I'll note that he doesn't mention Elio, Freakier Friday, Tron, etc. in the article. That doesn't mean those movies were bad ideas, just that that's not where the expectations are.

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/bob-iger-thunderbolts-marvel-new-movie-strategy-1236389765/

 

[Disney Irish]

Alway Typically all of the above.

Not Always absolute for each film. There are randoms called cult following or some that find an audience, but that is not show business norm and nor does anyone count on it becuase theatrical box office is primary driver. Typically, if you had a movie play better in theaters it is going to play better at home.

In Business, it is absolutely right to say theatrical box office is the primary driver of motion picture success.


The chances of your production picking up an audience after not doing well in theaters will be possible, but less likely and not the norm. This is why there are videos like the one posted with the title "Movie bombs that shockingly did well on Netflix" And no business counts on it, only fans will hope and defend it.


Rocky Horror Picture Show did not seek to be the Rocky Horror Picture Show.


And those are likely going to get harder to get as there is more content then ever.

And while not definite, something to chew on
:That means box office success first is just as if not more important, not less.

There is no guarantee in the movie business, not at the box office and not in a post-theatrical market such as streaming either. Never has been, and never will be. Its a gamble, and that is known the moment a movie gets greenlit.

Also I think some are missing the actual thru-thread of this conversation. No one is claiming that theatrical isn't a driver of eyeballs and money for a movie, just that its no longer the driver of a movies profitability anymore. That movies can and do make a majority of their money from the box office, but that many still lose money and can/will go on to be profitable in the post-theatrical market. This is true of Disney, Universal, Warner Brothers Discovery, Sony, and every other studio major or independent. Its why many have been setting up and securing their post-theatrical businesses whether that is a streaming service of their own or partnering with one such as Netflix. Its also the main reason Netflix still exists instead of going under like other video distribution businesses of the 20th century. And why they are now regularly spending $200M+ on their own movies that don't have a theatrical release or a very short one that doesn't make much if any money.

So this idea that a movie has to go theatrical and make money at the box office in order to be successful is false, Netflix proves that. They obviously can and do make a profit from their movies without that happening. I know its difficult for some to wrap their head around, especially when we've been trained for decades to only see the box office as the sole determining factor for success. But this is a new world we live in, one where the box office is depressed due to lower and lower ticket sales every year, and by all accounts that isn't changing. This has been an on-going discussion for the last 5 years, and I assume will continue for the next 5 years.

Also just an FYI, the videos title that was posted was "Box office bombs that went on to blow up on Netflix", there was no "shockingly" in the title.

 

[coffeefan]

Here's a recent article showing It's not just a Disney thing.

According to a new report by Puck, the budget of Mission: Impossible 8 is at least $400 million, meaning it will have to set a franchise record just to break even at the box office. The report details that the massive budget is due to several factors, including the pandemic delaying production, the two Hollywood strikes, and Cruise persuading then-new studio chief Brian Robbins for more money on the last installments due to inflation. While the number can't be confirmed, one insider said the following: “It’s a big, expensive movie—no doubt—but it has enormous value [beyond theatrical revenue]. I’m sure we’d do it all over again.”

However, as is stated in the report, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning is still a great investment for Paramount and will be immensely popular on streaming even if it doesn't make its money back at the box office.

Mission: Impossible 8's Box Office Reportedly Needs To Set New Franchise Record Just To Break Even

Mission: Impossible 8 needs to make tons of money.

screenrant.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Jokes aside, again I don't think anyone is trying to claim that Snow White is going to make a profit from D+ (or any other place).

…we shouldn’t discount the jokes…it’s the only thing keeping the flames under control Here

 

[Disney Irish]

…we shouldn’t discount the jokes…it’s the only thing keeping the flames under control Here

I'm not discounting them, I even acknowledge them, I'm just continuing the conversation in-spite of them.

 

[Disney Irish]

Here's a recent article showing It's not just a Disney thing.

According to a new report by Puck, the budget of Mission: Impossible 8 is at least $400 million, meaning it will have to set a franchise record just to break even at the box office. The report details that the massive budget is due to several factors, including the pandemic delaying production, the two Hollywood strikes, and Cruise persuading then-new studio chief Brian Robbins for more money on the last installments due to inflation. While the number can't be confirmed, one insider said the following: “It’s a big, expensive movie—no doubt—but it has enormous value [beyond theatrical revenue]. I’m sure we’d do it all over again.”

However, as is stated in the report, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning is still a great investment for Paramount and will be immensely popular on streaming even if it doesn't make its money back at the box office.

Mission: Impossible 8's Box Office Reportedly Needs To Set New Franchise Record Just To Break Even

Mission: Impossible 8 needs to make tons of money.

screenrant.com

Wow, you mean another Studio that knows the box office isn't going to recoup their investment so is planning for a post-theatrical revenue to bring it to profitability. Well will wonders never cease....

 

[Disstevefan1]

Here's a recent article showing It's not just a Disney thing.

According to a new report by Puck, the budget of Mission: Impossible 8 is at least $400 million, meaning it will have to set a franchise record just to break even at the box office. The report details that the massive budget is due to several factors, including the pandemic delaying production, the two Hollywood strikes, and Cruise persuading then-new studio chief Brian Robbins for more money on the last installments due to inflation. While the number can't be confirmed, one insider said the following: “It’s a big, expensive movie—no doubt—but it has enormous value [beyond theatrical revenue]. I’m sure we’d do it all over again.”

However, as is stated in the report, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning is still a great investment for Paramount and will be immensely popular on streaming even if it doesn't make its money back at the box office.

Mission: Impossible 8's Box Office Reportedly Needs To Set New Franchise Record Just To Break Even

Mission: Impossible 8 needs to make tons of money.

screenrant.com

As I have always said, the budgets are out of control.

Using the 2.5 multiplier (as per the experts on these boards) it needs 1 BILLION at the box office to BREAK EVEN.

Oh boy, its a good thing the box office does not matter anymore (as per the experts on these boards)

 

[Disney Irish]

As I have always said, the budgets are out of control.

Using the 2.5 multiplier (as per the experts on these boards) it needs 1 BILLION at the box office to BREAK EVEN.

Oh boy, its a good thing the box office does not matter anymore (as per the experts on these boards)

Yep, its going to rival Force Awakens and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom as the most expensive movie of all time but not likely to even come close to either movies box office totals.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For you kids in the back…

Saying that eventually…basically through residuals…some losers may cover in the end is NOT the same as the goals of the studios making them.

They’re disappointments…there shouldn’t be an argument

To continue to parse a couple of marvel floppers and a live action bomb is like ordering dessert on the titanic…you’re never gonna get it.

Now it’s a big weekend…move on to the new movies…the parks…the heat…something…anything

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I wouldn't say he doesn't care. This (well-trod) article pretty clearly lays out the strategy and where he thinks the profit centers are. I'll note that he doesn't mention Elio, Freakier Friday, Tron, etc. in the article. That doesn't mean those movies were bad ideas, just that that's not where the expectations are.

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/bob-iger-thunderbolts-marvel-new-movie-strategy-1236389765/

Actually, he did mention Elio twice in the earnings call, compared to mentioning Tron: Ares only once.

 

[Disney Irish]

For you kids in the back…

Saying that eventually…basically through residuals…some losers may cover in the end is NOT the same as the goals of the studios making them.

They’re disappointments…there shouldn’t be an argument

To continue to parse a couple of marvel floppers and a live action bomb is like ordering dessert on the titanic…you’re never gonna get it.

As always you continue to miss the point of what is being discussed.

We're not talking about a movie like Snow White that'll end up losing Disney $100M or more. We're talking about movies that are within $25-30M of breakeven, like Cap4 and most likely Thunderbolts (though it may end up slightly better). Yes if you want to say they are disappointments at the box office, fine, I don't think most would argue with you. But with the post-theatrical those are going to turn a profit, almost immediately after leaving theaters. Because as @BrianLo pointed out the post-theatrical revenue has already been contracted out even before release to theaters in most cases. And that is now something figured into the goal of a movie when they greenlight it, ie the post-theatrical revenue is part of the equation not an afterthought.

Now it’s a big weekend…move on to the new movies…the parks…the heat…something…anything

We'll move on when you move on from posting about Iger, who clearly takes up too much space in your head.

But in general the hope is Stitch brings in big money so that it covers a majority of early 2025 losses so you guys can move on from that.

 

[Disstevefan1]

For you kids in the back…

Saying that eventually…basically through residuals…some losers may cover in the end is NOT the same as the goals of the studios making them.

They’re disappointments…there shouldn’t be an argument

To continue to parse a couple of marvel floppers and a live action bomb is like ordering dessert on the titanic…you’re never gonna get it.

Now it’s a big weekend…move on to the new movies…the parks…the heat…something…anything

Some would says its going to be an EPIC weekend!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

As always you continue to miss the point of what is being discussed.

We're not talking about a movie like Snow White that'll end up losing Disney $100M or more. We're talking about movies that are within $25-30M of breakeven, like Cap4 and most likely Thunderbolts (though it may end up slightly better). Yes if you want to say they are disappointments at the box office, fine, I don't think most would argue with you. But with the post-theatrical those are going to turn a profit, almost immediately after leaving theaters. Because as @BrianLo pointed out the post-theatrical revenue has already been contracted out even before release to theaters in most cases. And that is now something figured into the goal of a movie when they greenlight it, ie the post-theatrical revenue is part of the equation not an afterthought.


We'll move on when you move on from posting about Iger, who clearly takes up too much space in your head.

But in general the hope is Stitch brings in big money so that it covers a majority of early 2025 loses so you guys can move on from that.

I love you…and this is me saying this…but are you doing this to reread you own material?

Might be tired at this point.

You’re going on about a new “Hollywood model”…and that is kinda a different conversation. I’m not even saying it’s not going that way.

But we’ve seen “predictive” movement in recent years on other fronts…and it resembles a truck fire on the side of the road at this point.

Bombs are not wanted…and far less “acceptable” to the boardroom than you’ve invented in your head. For any of them…but especially for Disney. They have severely taxed their resources…Rep being a big one now…and they need every penny.

That may be counter intuitive…but also true. As is often the case

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Some would says its going to be an EPIC weekend!
View attachment 859738

The 100 degrees is gonna go over well

 

[celluloid]

Yep, its going to rival Force Awakens and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom as the most expensive movie of all time but not likely to even come close to either movies box office totals.

Almost as if it is a tired franchise choice with diminishing returns.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The 100 degrees is gonna go over well

Well, yes.
One could say is the perfect storm!
100 degree heat index plus opening weekend - could be bad! and I have been seeing some less than positive reports since they opened it to everyone during previews.

From the start, I said this is Universal's game to lose. We are happy NOT to be there on opening day or anytime before the winter. We may check it out in the winter or maybe January.

It will be interesting to watch the YouTubers.

To get back on topic Snow White 2025 is available to rent or buy digitally

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, yes.
One could say is the perfect storm!
100 degree heat index plus opening weekend - could be bad! and I have been seeing some less than positive reports since they opened it to everyone during previews.

From the start, I said this is Universal's game to lose. We are happy NOT to be there on opening day or anytime before the winter. We may check it out in the winter or maybe January.

It will be interesting to watch the YouTubers.

To get back on topic Snow White 2025 is available to rent or buy digitally

Well it is a different game when you don’t have a limited invite list

I’m guessing that even though it looks big…they haven’t built enough for smooth operation

Really no park has since Epcot

Maybe IOA…maybe

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Almost as if it is a tired franchise choice with diminishing returns.

Most likely it will…bad sequels have been following a pretty easy pattern of late…with just a few unique exceptions

 

[Disney Irish]

I love you…

Thanks.... I think.

and this is me saying this…but are you doing this to reread you own material?

No, I'm actually having a discussion because that is what we do here. If not then why are we here?

You’re going on about a new “Hollywood model”…and that is kinda a different conversation. I’m not even saying it’s not going that way.

Actually that IS the conversation. Because its not theoretical, its happening now in real time. Its affecting the whole box office now, not 6 months from now, not 3 years from, but now. And every Studio recognizes it, accepts it, and is doing something about it. This is something that some of us have been talking about for the last 5 years, and some of you didn't want to discuss it because you don't believe its happening but its happening. Maybe now some of you are starting to recognize what the rest of us have been talking about.

But we’ve seen “predictive” movement in recent years on other fronts

Not sure what you mean "on other fronts"? But if you mean other industries, then yes and its happening, for example in technology (something which I know a lot of about) it was predicted, and has happened. This is something that all of Hollywood is transitioning to and have been preparing for now for 10 years, and its happening.

Bombs are not wanted…and far less “acceptable” to the boardroom than you’ve invented in head. For any of them…but especially for Disney.

I would agree that "bombs" are not wanted, but some of these wouldn't be considered actual "bomb" outside of Snow. Disappointments yes, and on that I agree, but not outright bombs.

Also I'm not sure why "especially" Disney. Are they somehow more at risk than any other Studio? I don't think so, if anything they can weather the storm better than almost every other Studio in Hollywood, including the one with a direct theme park competitor.

They have severely taxed their resources…Rep being a big one now…and they need every penny.

You'd be surprised but I actually agree with you here. They have stretched their reputation pretty thin the last couple years, but the hope is there is a turn around on that. Stitch will be a test to see if its been stretched too thin to the point of breaking beyond repair or if its on the mend.