Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Here's the numbers using the actual formula recommended to you by Brian Lo a few times. [He can correct me, if I've gotten it wrong.]

Wait, I thought the @BrianLo formula was 2.5X the production budget against the global box office total?

Using that 2.5X formula, Disney has lost $617 Million at the box office as of May 11th.

Using my more nuanced 60/40 formula, Disney has lost $407 Million at the box office as of May 11th.

For fun (and because we're all about comparisons here, right? <taps thread sign>) I threw in the top 30 grossers at the BO so far in 2025, so y'all can see what most movies do re: profits and eyeballs.

I'm sorry, but what are we looking at here? If you could be so kind, help an older man out who not only hates math, but has admittedly had one Manhattan and two glasses of a nice Willamette Valley Pinot Noir in the past four hours as it approaches Midnight Mountain Time. What does this table mean? What's the top line net profit or loss from this table?

Am I right in thinking it shows a current net loss for Burbank's box office of $379 Million? And Snow White only lost them $238 Million? That seems awfully generous. How does this compute with the 2.5X formula some folks here once wanted to use?

View attachment 858524

 

[brideck]

And just real quick, Brian Lo had done this previously hundreds of pages ago, but here's checking the formula being used against Deadline's tail of the tape for the four biggest bombs of 2023.

Deadline had these as:
Marvels -$237m
IJ 5 -$143m
Wish -$131m
HM -$117m

Pretty dang close, no? And all we had to do was use a better formula. No waiting months to get official word, etc.

 

[brideck]

I'm sorry, but what are we looking at here? If you could be so kind, help an older man out who not only hates math, but has admittedly had one Manhattan and two glasses of a nice Willamette Valley Pinot Noir in the past four hours as it approaches Midnight Mountain Time. What does this table mean? What's the top line net profit or loss from this table?

I mean, I thought labeling the first column as "Net" would make that pretty clear, no?

In short, you need to compare the studio take against 1.25x of the budget, not 2.5x. By doing the latter, you're comparing apples and oranges -- essentially holding the theater's take against the movie's profits.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney is releasing a sequel to a remake of freaky Friday this year. Do you think that Disney thinks that film has mainstream appeal? Frankly I don’t know why it’s releasing in theaters instead of on Disney+

For that matter Disney is releasing a movie called The Roses in August, which is a remake of the 80s movie War of the Roses. Does anyone really think that has mass appeal at this point, I don't.

And there are more examples of that just in the 2025 and 2026 film slate, not to mention all the various ones in various stages of development.

 

[brideck]

Disney is releasing a sequel to a remake of freaky Friday this year. Do you think that Disney thinks that film has mainstream appeal? Frankly I don’t know why it’s releasing in theaters instead of on Disney+

For the awareness, no? For cases like these the theatrical release provides credibility and tells the millions of D+ subscribers what movies will be arriving before too long.

For that matter Disney is releasing a movie called The Roses in August, which is a remake of the 80s movie War of the Roses. Does anyone really think that has mass appeal at this point, I don't.

And there are more examples of that just in the 2025 and 2026 film slate, not to mention all the various ones in various stages of development.

This one looks like it could be really funny. I can't tell if the tone will be too over the top from the trailer I've seen.

 

[Agent H]

For that matter Disney is releasing a movie called The Roses in August, which is a remake of the 80s movie War of the Roses. Does anyone really think that has mass appeal at this point, I don't.

And there are more examples of that just in the 2025 and 2026 film slate, not to mention all the various ones in various stages of development.

Add tron:ares and that club 33 movie to to the list.

 

[Disney Irish]

For the awareness, no? For cases like these the theatrical release provides credibility and tells the millions of D+ subscribers what movies will be arriving before too long.

Agreed which doesn't have direct ROI for the movie itself, ie its not selling much merch, but can and does have indirect ROI long term for the company. Which I think is the important take away from this whole conversation. Not every movie is going to have directly ROI, but most if not all can and do have indirect ROI even if its not seen while its in theaters.

This one looks like it could be really funny. I can't tell if the tone will be too over the top from the trailer I've seen.

Agreed, and this is one of those films that falls under "art" that Raleigh and others claims that Disney doesn't make.

 

[coffeefan]

The goal is to make money of course, especially for movie only studios. But for Disney, there's also the goal of making life long fans. That's why Disney parks and Disney+ do consistently well even when they don't have the latest hot hit. They don't solely need to rely on the latest blockbuster to draw in guests.

 

[Disney Irish]

Add tron:ares and that club 33 movie to to the list.

I think Tron has more mass appeal, but do agree on Club 33 (if that gets made).

 

[Agent H]

I think Tron has more mass appeal, but do agree on Club 33 (if that gets made).

Tron is another thing where I think the hype is there but so far it hasn’t shown up in the box office. It’s another example of Disney making films that flop but go on to become well loved and successful. As for club 33 I hope it gets made. I still think it’s a mistake to not go all in the theme park attraction movies.

 

[brideck]

Tron is another thing where I think the hype is there but so far it hasn’t shown up in the box office.

I think Tron is a property that's really popular with the people who love it, but doesn't generally have four quadrant appeal. Having the ride in WDW now might actually help with that, so this release will be more interesting than the last one.

 

[Disney Irish]

The goal is to make money of course, especially for movie only studios.

I don't even know if we can even say that 100% because studios like A24 and Neon produce films they know will never see a dime of profit. That is the nature of their existence, they just hope they make enough to cover costs.

But for Disney, there's also the goal of making life long fans. That's why Disney parks and Disney+ do consistently well even when they don't have the latest hot hit. They don't solely need to rely on the latest blockbuster to draw in guests.

Agreed, and that means that you have to pump out movies even if they don't see a direct ROI from the theaters. Several here that were part of this discussion complained recently that Disney is just pumping out content, like duh.

 

[Disney Irish]

Speaking of a movie that doesn't have mass appeal yet Disney is spending money on (which some here claim that Disney doesn't do) -

Dwayne Johnson, Joe Ballarini Get ‘Ripped’ for 20th Century Studios (Exclusive)

Pumping news: Seven Bucks Productions will produce a feature adaptation of Ballarini's short story for the Disney division.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[DKampy]

For the awareness, no? For cases like these the theatrical release provides credibility and tells the millions of D+ subscribers what movies will be arriving before too long.

Which is why Streaming makes it even more difficult to decipher a movie’s worth in the theatrical window…the data is in….movies do better via streaming if those movies hit theaters first….it’s obvious when a movie like Companions is released wide to great reviews…show up on PVOD a week later….then Max shortly after that….Disney is just more patient then other studios

 

[Disney Irish]

And in an example of theaters getting panicked about its future amid a slow 2025, AMC is introducing 50% Wednesday's at the height of the summer season, ie they don't have any faith in 2025 bringing in bodies -

Discount Wednesday: AMC Theatres to Dramatically Slash Movie Ticket Prices Beginning July 9

The offer will kick in during the busy summer season amid the release of event pics including 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' and James Gunn's highly anticipated 'Superman' reboot.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

And remember its the theaters that set the ticket prices NOT studios.

 

[Ayla]

I don’t even know what your point is anymore.. doing these little dances…as far as I can tell Bob Iger has really affected your thought process… and are not happy with anyone giving Disney money… sort of a “ do as I say not as I do”

You are the first who made a comment on the “art house” studio…. I assumed you
Meant Searchlight Studios…. You complain about others with excuses…. Most others on this board I have not seen change their thoughts But you created so much confusion with your word salad…just to spin a Disney is a failure narrative

All while willingly handing over thousands of dollars a year on multiple trips...

 

[Ayla]

They’re wrong.

They cannot see what I see, especially after it’s first trailer from February debuted to over 200 million views worldwide in its first 24 hours to make it the 10th biggest trailer launch ever.

Trailer views don't equal movie tickets.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Trailer views don't equal movie tickets.

Sometimes they do.

 

[Ayla]

Sometimes they do.

Rarely.

 

[Tha Realest]

Sometimes they do.

Nah.