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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Yeah…for Disney it really does, Jack

Making profit and having wide appeal (you know…eyes? Ticket sales? Pub?) really does matter to Disney.

That doesn’t mean they don’t have flops…but then expanding the existence of flops into that flops don’t matter at all is like what the F student in Econ writes his paper about
So every movie they greenlight is for mass appeal and making profit? You really want to go down that road? Because we can pull up the list of hundreds of movies that Disney has greenlit over the years that surely wasn't for mass appeal or making profit, especially lately with Searchlight. We can also pull up the list of hundreds of movies that Disney has greenlit over the years that never saw a ROI. The movie business is not a for sure thing, it never has been, and never will be.

Heck for that matter, how many times have you said in this and other threads how xyz movie didn't have mass appeal and Disney should have known it? I mean if you can see it and so can others surely Disney can too. So that must mean they don't always do things for those reason, ie its not always going to be what you want or expect out of Disney. I mean clearly since you constantly rail against them in almost every post.

At a certain point you have to realize that the old Walt saying of "We don't make movies to make money, we make money to make movies" still rings true, even today, even under this management. Which for the record I'm not a fan of either for the most part, but doesn't mean I can't enjoy what they produce.

Now see here is where you didn’t read post #1. It’s to discuss performance at the box office. Like the actual performance.

Maybe it’s confusing?

And second…you really showed your hand here. I love it when people adamantly say it’s not about defending Disney (specifically)…then actually cry for Disney in an “airing of grievances”

Know when to fold ‘em, Kenny rogers
I have no issue with people wanting to air their grievances against Disney. I do have an issue with people wanting to claim this thread was about one thing then go and air their grievances continually about things not related to the box office and then complain when others try to discuss the nuances of the box office by providing context. So which is it? Are we only here to discuss the box office numbers and nothing else or are we discussing things related to the box office that end up in nuanced discussions that provide context, which include grievances. Because if its the former and not the latter, then unfortunately about 95% of this thread would be deleted including about 99.9% of your posts.

Actually…we do…can…and should “assume” that. Because popularity is a direct correlation to longterm appeal and higher return for the studio and company. It’s 1:1.

What had a better ROI? Batman or bill and Ted’s bogus journey…

That one is a crème puff…easy one.

So is it about profit, appeal and making money, or no?
Actually we can't assume that, and that is the point. Because not every movie is going to have a direct ROI, nor is every movie going to have mass appeal, again the whole point. Because for every Batman, there is about 100 Bill and Ted's.

Also again I think you're talking about YOUR stated goals, not Disney's.

Because there’s a lot more to movies than just a cast and the camera operators…all the time in development is waste of energy and labor if they aren’t gonna hit. There are no guarantees…but they sure as hell want them. It’s lost opportunity cost. There’s a place where it’s about “genre” and “exposition writing”…it’s called college and that ain’t real. Not in Hollywood

Hell…Disney already has a whole division that they constantly give dead end busy work to with no intention of following up on…it’s called WDI…
Don’t think they need one at the studio too.
Yes there is a lot more to movies than the actual production. Development phase can and does take years. Disney and every studio has movies in various stages of development at all times. So you don't think they have scriptwriters out there today pumping out a script that will never see the light of day? Come on man, you should know better than that. Disney and every studio sees and accepts and purchases hundreds of scripts that don't ever get made. They will never see a direct ROI ever, and yet they spend money on them every day of every year. Because that is how Hollywood works. They don't make every movie they greenlight, they don't make every script they buy.

Now I'm ok with saying thats a waste of money, but that is the nature of this business. Sorry if that is not ok with you, but it does and will continue to happen. And so yeah in that regard it is just like WDI.
 

Agent H

Well-Known Member
Yeah…for Disney it really does, Jack

Making profit and having wide appeal (you know…eyes? Ticket sales? Pub?) really does matter to Disney.

That doesn’t mean they don’t have flops…but then expanding the existence of flops into that flops don’t matter at all is like what the F student in Econ writes his paper about
Disney is releasing a sequel to a remake of freaky Friday this year. Do you think that Disney thinks that film has mainstream appeal? Frankly I don’t know why it’s releasing in theaters instead of on Disney+
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Here's the numbers using the actual formula recommended to you by Brian Lo a few times. [He can correct me, if I've gotten it wrong.]

Wait, I thought the @BrianLo formula was 2.5X the production budget against the global box office total?

Using that 2.5X formula, Disney has lost $617 Million at the box office as of May 11th.

Using my more nuanced 60/40 formula, Disney has lost $407 Million at the box office as of May 11th.

For fun (and because we're all about comparisons here, right? <taps thread sign>) I threw in the top 30 grossers at the BO so far in 2025, so y'all can see what most movies do re: profits and eyeballs.

I'm sorry, but what are we looking at here? If you could be so kind, help an older man out who not only hates math, but has admittedly had one Manhattan and two glasses of a nice Willamette Valley Pinot Noir in the past four hours as it approaches Midnight Mountain Time. What does this table mean? What's the top line net profit or loss from this table?

Am I right in thinking it shows a current net loss for Burbank's box office of $379 Million? And Snow White only lost them $238 Million? That seems awfully generous. How does this compute with the 2.5X formula some folks here once wanted to use?

1747108179022-png.858524

 
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brideck

Well-Known Member
And just real quick, Brian Lo had done this previously hundreds of pages ago, but here's checking the formula being used against Deadline's tail of the tape for the four biggest bombs of 2023.

1747116067430.png


Deadline had these as:
Marvels -$237m
IJ 5 -$143m
Wish -$131m
HM -$117m

Pretty dang close, no? And all we had to do was use a better formula. No waiting months to get official word, etc.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
I'm sorry, but what are we looking at here? If you could be so kind, help an older man out who not only hates math, but has admittedly had one Manhattan and two glasses of a nice Willamette Valley Pinot Noir in the past four hours as it approaches Midnight Mountain Time. What does this table mean? What's the top line net profit or loss from this table?

I mean, I thought labeling the first column as "Net" would make that pretty clear, no?

In short, you need to compare the studio take against 1.25x of the budget, not 2.5x. By doing the latter, you're comparing apples and oranges -- essentially holding the theater's take against the movie's profits.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Disney is releasing a sequel to a remake of freaky Friday this year. Do you think that Disney thinks that film has mainstream appeal? Frankly I don’t know why it’s releasing in theaters instead of on Disney+
For that matter Disney is releasing a movie called The Roses in August, which is a remake of the 80s movie War of the Roses. Does anyone really think that has mass appeal at this point, I don't.

And there are more examples of that just in the 2025 and 2026 film slate, not to mention all the various ones in various stages of development.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
Disney is releasing a sequel to a remake of freaky Friday this year. Do you think that Disney thinks that film has mainstream appeal? Frankly I don’t know why it’s releasing in theaters instead of on Disney+

For the awareness, no? For cases like these the theatrical release provides credibility and tells the millions of D+ subscribers what movies will be arriving before too long.

For that matter Disney is releasing a movie called The Roses in August, which is a remake of the 80s movie War of the Roses. Does anyone really think that has mass appeal at this point, I don't.

And there are more examples of that just in the 2025 and 2026 film slate, not to mention all the various ones in various stages of development.

This one looks like it could be really funny. I can't tell if the tone will be too over the top from the trailer I've seen.
 

Agent H

Well-Known Member
For that matter Disney is releasing a movie called The Roses in August, which is a remake of the 80s movie War of the Roses. Does anyone really think that has mass appeal at this point, I don't.

And there are more examples of that just in the 2025 and 2026 film slate, not to mention all the various ones in various stages of development.
Add tron:ares and that club 33 movie to to the list.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
For the awareness, no? For cases like these the theatrical release provides credibility and tells the millions of D+ subscribers what movies will be arriving before too long.
Agreed which doesn't have direct ROI for the movie itself, ie its not selling much merch, but can and does have indirect ROI long term for the company. Which I think is the important take away from this whole conversation. Not every movie is going to have directly ROI, but most if not all can and do have indirect ROI even if its not seen while its in theaters.

This one looks like it could be really funny. I can't tell if the tone will be too over the top from the trailer I've seen.
Agreed, and this is one of those films that falls under "art" that Raleigh and others claims that Disney doesn't make.
 

Agent H

Well-Known Member
I think Tron has more mass appeal, but do agree on Club 33 (if that gets made).
Tron is another thing where I think the hype is there but so far it hasn’t shown up in the box office. It’s another example of Disney making films that flop but go on to become well loved and successful. As for club 33 I hope it gets made. I still think it’s a mistake to not go all in the theme park attraction movies.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
The goal is to make money of course, especially for movie only studios.
I don't even know if we can even say that 100% because studios like A24 and Neon produce films they know will never see a dime of profit. That is the nature of their existence, they just hope they make enough to cover costs.

But for Disney, there's also the goal of making life long fans. That's why Disney parks and Disney+ do consistently well even when they don't have the latest hot hit. They don't solely need to rely on the latest blockbuster to draw in guests.
Agreed, and that means that you have to pump out movies even if they don't see a direct ROI from the theaters. Several here that were part of this discussion complained recently that Disney is just pumping out content, like duh. ;)
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
For the awareness, no? For cases like these the theatrical release provides credibility and tells the millions of D+ subscribers what movies will be arriving before too long.
Which is why Streaming makes it even more difficult to decipher a movie’s worth in the theatrical window…the data is in….movies do better via streaming if those movies hit theaters first….it’s obvious when a movie like Companions is released wide to great reviews…show up on PVOD a week later….then Max shortly after that….Disney is just more patient then other studios
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
And in an example of theaters getting panicked about its future amid a slow 2025, AMC is introducing 50% Wednesday's at the height of the summer season, ie they don't have any faith in 2025 bringing in bodies -


And remember its the theaters that set the ticket prices NOT studios.
 

Ayla

Well-Known Member
I don’t even know what your point is anymore.. doing these little dances…as far as I can tell Bob Iger has really affected your thought process… and are not happy with anyone giving Disney money… sort of a “ do as I say not as I do”

You are the first who made a comment on the “art house” studio…. I assumed you
Meant Searchlight Studios…. You complain about others with excuses…. Most others on this board I have not seen change their thoughts But you created so much confusion with your word salad…just to spin a Disney is a failure narrative
All while willingly handing over thousands of dollars a year on multiple trips...
 

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