Perhaps this year is a “tale of two halves?”
One would have to think that there are so many movies on the back end that they’ve got to or will turn a profit.
The question is the big log jam with Superman, Jurassic Park and FF all roughly around the same time this summer. As a guess there is only going to be so much $$$ to go around in who sees what.
Also as noted Stich and Avatar should do well so another meh, mixed bag by the time December rolls around?
Perhaps, but also Movie Industry like entertainment in other venues such as theme parks or smaller attractions show that when they are competetive, most have a better chance at winning rather than splitting the room.
Theaters having more movies that please a mass audience are more likely to have success in other films than just one winning at a time.
This is why not summer releases of Minecraft and Sinners, while counterprogramming have both earned over 200 million with ease.