Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Now that Captain America 4 is done with its run at the box office for all intents and purposes, here's how that looks in both the current situation, and the forward-looking 2.5X situation that adds in unknown future streaming income.

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Alternate Captain America 4: 2.5 Times Production Budget Requires $450 Global Box Office = $34 Million Loss

View attachment 858520



This might be a good time to do a pre-summer check in on how Disney's box office losses have piled up the past few months, to see what it will take for Stitch, Elio and Fantastic Four to dig out from underneath those losses before they can get to Christmas with Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3, etc.

The top line number is that as of the middle of May, Burbank has lost $407 Million at the box office in 2025.

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $270, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $272 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $23, Overseas $46 = $21 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $77, Overseas $58 = $50 Million Loss???

View attachment 858521

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

There’s also the contention from corporate that the known extensive reshoots for cap 4 cost $0…

As in a gift from SAG and the trade guilds? Hollywood is always so charitable

(I say this because they’re gonna spin this crap as “standard” to fleece the costs and goose the reported “margins”…this is certain unless an adult level of pragmatic thought is applied)

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Oh, hey, speaking of Disney box office, they finally started marketing Elio with this first TV spot they played during the final commercial break of American Idol’s part 2 of their 2-night Disney Night event on ABC.



Maybe now they’ll finally market this movie to make it a box office hit.

 

[TP2000]

Or, for those at home who like to use the blanket 2.5 X Production Budget to get to their numbers, here's how that looks so far this year...

Top line number using that equation is that in mid May, Burbank has lost $617 Million at the box office so far this year.

Captain America 4: 2.5 times the production budget of $180 Million = $35 Million Loss
Snow White: 2.5 times the production budget of $270 Million = $473 Million Loss
The Amateur: 2.5 times the production budget of $60 Million = $59 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: 2.5 times the production budget of $60 Million = $50 Million Loss???

The more nuanced breakdown of domestic vs. overseas numbers we use here in the TP2000 Global Command Center show a loss so far this year of $407 Million. But the blanket 2.5 X Production equation shows a much bigger loss so far, with Snow White really causing more damage, and nets a total loss of over $200 Million more at a $617 Million loss.

Are you sure you guys want to use the 2.5X equation this year? It might help the cause to use the Global Command Center equation instead.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Good Lord.

#1. Mufasa made money.

#2. Fantastic Four has their best shot because of Pedro Pascal.

#2a. You’re worth it - now work it.

 

[brideck]

Or, for those at home who like to use the blanket 2.5 X Production Budget to get to their numbers, here's how that looks so far this year...

Top line number using that equation is that in mid May, Burbank has lost $617 Million at the box office so far this year.

Captain America 4: 2.5 times the production budget of $180 Million = $35 Million Loss
Snow White: 2.5 times the production budget of $270 Million = $473 Million Loss
The Amateur: 2.5 times the production budget of $60 Million = $59 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: 2.5 times the production budget of $60 Million = $50 Million Loss???

The more nuanced breakdown of domestic vs. overseas numbers we use here in the TP2000 Global Command Center show a loss so far this year of $407 Million. But the blanket 2.5 X Production equation shows a much bigger loss so far, with Snow White really causing more damage, and nets a total loss of over $200 Million more at a $617 Million loss.

Are you sure you guys want to use the 2.5X equation this year? It might help the cause to use the Global Command Center equation instead.

View attachment 858522

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

Timely. Here's the numbers using the actual formula recommended to you by Brian Lo a few times. [He can correct me, if I've gotten it wrong.] For fun (and because we're all about comparisons here, right? <taps thread sign>) I threw in the top 30 grossers at the BO so far in 2025, so y'all can see what most movies do re: profits and eyeballs.

To get the kind of numbers that Disney needs re: eyeballs takes a big budget and with that comes a whole lot more risk re: profits. Only 3 out of 12 movies with a budget of $40m+ have hit so far this year with Disney being 0 for 4.

One big hit and Disney's back in the black for the year, even with Snow White sitting there. Disney has a lot of scratch cards left this year, as they do every year.

 

[DKampy]

Well they will likely turn a profit…

Isn’t there an avatar this year?

But it’s ROI they most care about. And by “most”…I mean 100% of the management of Disney.

To look at the next Disney movie on tap… you don’t think Stitch will achieve ROI

It’s always about ancillaries…merch, licensing, sequels and spins…

We should be good there with upcoming films Fantastic Four, Stitch, Zootopia, Avatar…. I very much doubt a film like The Amateur was ever greenlit with merch and licensing in mind

So why do it for break even?
And if they’re bad…they can make money and STILL lose potential profits down the road. (I’ll not get started on the obvious example there)

I could see a side where Disney goal is for Thunderbolts to break even theatrically at this point it is probably more about reversing the narrative that Marvel does not produce quality anymore

Here’s a good one: “thunderbolts is so well reviewed…great for marvel”

As stated above that is a great start to begin to reverse the trend

But the Seats are largely empty. Are we shooting for cult classic here?

Think Burbank is high fiving that?

7,480 per theater average this weekend is not nothing… most movies released this year would love those averages in a single weekend…I saw a Sunday matinee of Thunderbolts this weekend and there was a decent crowd in my theater

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah…for Disney it really does, Jack

Making profit and having wide appeal (you know…eyes? Ticket sales? Pub?) really does matter to Disney.

That doesn’t mean they don’t have flops…but then expanding the existence of flops into that flops don’t matter at all is like what the F student in Econ writes his paper about

So every movie they greenlight is for mass appeal and making profit? You really want to go down that road? Because we can pull up the list of hundreds of movies that Disney has greenlit over the years that surely wasn't for mass appeal or making profit, especially lately with Searchlight. We can also pull up the list of hundreds of movies that Disney has greenlit over the years that never saw a ROI. The movie business is not a for sure thing, it never has been, and never will be.

Heck for that matter, how many times have you said in this and other threads how xyz movie didn't have mass appeal and Disney should have known it? I mean if you can see it and so can others surely Disney can too. So that must mean they don't always do things for those reason, ie its not always going to be what you want or expect out of Disney. I mean clearly since you constantly rail against them in almost every post.

At a certain point you have to realize that the old Walt saying of "We don't make movies to make money, we make money to make movies" still rings true, even today, even under this management. Which for the record I'm not a fan of either for the most part, but doesn't mean I can't enjoy what they produce.

Now see here is where you didn’t read post #1. It’s to discuss performance at the box office. Like the actual performance.

Maybe it’s confusing?

And second…you really showed your hand here. I love it when people adamantly say it’s not about defending Disney (specifically)…then actually cry for Disney in an “airing of grievances”

Know when to fold ‘em, Kenny rogers

I have no issue with people wanting to air their grievances against Disney. I do have an issue with people wanting to claim this thread was about one thing then go and air their grievances continually about things not related to the box office and then complain when others try to discuss the nuances of the box office by providing context. So which is it? Are we only here to discuss the box office numbers and nothing else or are we discussing things related to the box office that end up in nuanced discussions that provide context, which include grievances. Because if its the former and not the latter, then unfortunately about 95% of this thread would be deleted including about 99.9% of your posts.

Actually…we do…can…and should “assume” that. Because popularity is a direct correlation to longterm appeal and higher return for the studio and company. It’s 1:1.

What had a better ROI? Batman or bill and Ted’s bogus journey…

That one is a crème puff…easy one.

So is it about profit, appeal and making money, or no?

Actually we can't assume that, and that is the point. Because not every movie is going to have a direct ROI, nor is every movie going to have mass appeal, again the whole point. Because for every Batman, there is about 100 Bill and Ted's.

Also again I think you're talking about YOUR stated goals, not Disney's.

Because there’s a lot more to movies than just a cast and the camera operators…all the time in development is waste of energy and labor if they aren’t gonna hit. There are no guarantees…but they sure as hell want them. It’s lost opportunity cost. There’s a place where it’s about “genre” and “exposition writing”…it’s called college and that ain’t real. Not in Hollywood

Hell…Disney already has a whole division that they constantly give dead end busy work to with no intention of following up on…it’s called WDI…
Don’t think they need one at the studio too.

Yes there is a lot more to movies than the actual production. Development phase can and does take years. Disney and every studio has movies in various stages of development at all times. So you don't think they have scriptwriters out there today pumping out a script that will never see the light of day? Come on man, you should know better than that. Disney and every studio sees and accepts and purchases hundreds of scripts that don't ever get made. They will never see a direct ROI ever, and yet they spend money on them every day of every year. Because that is how Hollywood works. They don't make every movie they greenlight, they don't make every script they buy.

Now I'm ok with saying thats a waste of money, but that is the nature of this business. Sorry if that is not ok with you, but it does and will continue to happen. And so yeah in that regard it is just like WDI.

 

[Agent H]

Yeah…for Disney it really does, Jack

Making profit and having wide appeal (you know…eyes? Ticket sales? Pub?) really does matter to Disney.

That doesn’t mean they don’t have flops…but then expanding the existence of flops into that flops don’t matter at all is like what the F student in Econ writes his paper about

Disney is releasing a sequel to a remake of freaky Friday this year. Do you think that Disney thinks that film has mainstream appeal? Frankly I don’t know why it’s releasing in theaters instead of on Disney+

 

[TP2000]

Here's the numbers using the actual formula recommended to you by Brian Lo a few times. [He can correct me, if I've gotten it wrong.]

Wait, I thought the @BrianLo formula was 2.5X the production budget against the global box office total?

Using that 2.5X formula, Disney has lost $617 Million at the box office as of May 11th.

Using my more nuanced 60/40 formula, Disney has lost $407 Million at the box office as of May 11th.

For fun (and because we're all about comparisons here, right? <taps thread sign>) I threw in the top 30 grossers at the BO so far in 2025, so y'all can see what most movies do re: profits and eyeballs.

I'm sorry, but what are we looking at here? If you could be so kind, help an older man out who not only hates math, but has admittedly had one Manhattan and two glasses of a nice Willamette Valley Pinot Noir in the past four hours as it approaches Midnight Mountain Time. What does this table mean? What's the top line net profit or loss from this table?

Am I right in thinking it shows a current net loss for Burbank's box office of $379 Million? And Snow White only lost them $238 Million? That seems awfully generous. How does this compute with the 2.5X formula some folks here once wanted to use?

View attachment 858524

 

[brideck]

And just real quick, Brian Lo had done this previously hundreds of pages ago, but here's checking the formula being used against Deadline's tail of the tape for the four biggest bombs of 2023.

Deadline had these as:
Marvels -$237m
IJ 5 -$143m
Wish -$131m
HM -$117m

Pretty dang close, no? And all we had to do was use a better formula. No waiting months to get official word, etc.

 

[brideck]

I'm sorry, but what are we looking at here? If you could be so kind, help an older man out who not only hates math, but has admittedly had one Manhattan and two glasses of a nice Willamette Valley Pinot Noir in the past four hours as it approaches Midnight Mountain Time. What does this table mean? What's the top line net profit or loss from this table?

I mean, I thought labeling the first column as "Net" would make that pretty clear, no?

In short, you need to compare the studio take against 1.25x of the budget, not 2.5x. By doing the latter, you're comparing apples and oranges -- essentially holding the theater's take against the movie's profits.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney is releasing a sequel to a remake of freaky Friday this year. Do you think that Disney thinks that film has mainstream appeal? Frankly I don’t know why it’s releasing in theaters instead of on Disney+

For that matter Disney is releasing a movie called The Roses in August, which is a remake of the 80s movie War of the Roses. Does anyone really think that has mass appeal at this point, I don't.

And there are more examples of that just in the 2025 and 2026 film slate, not to mention all the various ones in various stages of development.

 

[brideck]

Disney is releasing a sequel to a remake of freaky Friday this year. Do you think that Disney thinks that film has mainstream appeal? Frankly I don’t know why it’s releasing in theaters instead of on Disney+

For the awareness, no? For cases like these the theatrical release provides credibility and tells the millions of D+ subscribers what movies will be arriving before too long.

For that matter Disney is releasing a movie called The Roses in August, which is a remake of the 80s movie War of the Roses. Does anyone really think that has mass appeal at this point, I don't.

And there are more examples of that just in the 2025 and 2026 film slate, not to mention all the various ones in various stages of development.

This one looks like it could be really funny. I can't tell if the tone will be too over the top from the trailer I've seen.

 

[Agent H]

For that matter Disney is releasing a movie called The Roses in August, which is a remake of the 80s movie War of the Roses. Does anyone really think that has mass appeal at this point, I don't.

And there are more examples of that just in the 2025 and 2026 film slate, not to mention all the various ones in various stages of development.

Add tron:ares and that club 33 movie to to the list.

 

[Disney Irish]

For the awareness, no? For cases like these the theatrical release provides credibility and tells the millions of D+ subscribers what movies will be arriving before too long.

Agreed which doesn't have direct ROI for the movie itself, ie its not selling much merch, but can and does have indirect ROI long term for the company. Which I think is the important take away from this whole conversation. Not every movie is going to have directly ROI, but most if not all can and do have indirect ROI even if its not seen while its in theaters.

This one looks like it could be really funny. I can't tell if the tone will be too over the top from the trailer I've seen.

Agreed, and this is one of those films that falls under "art" that Raleigh and others claims that Disney doesn't make.

 

[coffeefan]

The goal is to make money of course, especially for movie only studios. But for Disney, there's also the goal of making life long fans. That's why Disney parks and Disney+ do consistently well even when they don't have the latest hot hit. They don't solely need to rely on the latest blockbuster to draw in guests.

 

[Disney Irish]

Add tron:ares and that club 33 movie to to the list.

I think Tron has more mass appeal, but do agree on Club 33 (if that gets made).

 

[Agent H]

I think Tron has more mass appeal, but do agree on Club 33 (if that gets made).

Tron is another thing where I think the hype is there but so far it hasn’t shown up in the box office. It’s another example of Disney making films that flop but go on to become well loved and successful. As for club 33 I hope it gets made. I still think it’s a mistake to not go all in the theme park attraction movies.

 

[brideck]

Tron is another thing where I think the hype is there but so far it hasn’t shown up in the box office.

I think Tron is a property that's really popular with the people who love it, but doesn't generally have four quadrant appeal. Having the ride in WDW now might actually help with that, so this release will be more interesting than the last one.

 

[Disney Irish]

The goal is to make money of course, especially for movie only studios.

I don't even know if we can even say that 100% because studios like A24 and Neon produce films they know will never see a dime of profit. That is the nature of their existence, they just hope they make enough to cover costs.

But for Disney, there's also the goal of making life long fans. That's why Disney parks and Disney+ do consistently well even when they don't have the latest hot hit. They don't solely need to rely on the latest blockbuster to draw in guests.

Agreed, and that means that you have to pump out movies even if they don't see a direct ROI from the theaters. Several here that were part of this discussion complained recently that Disney is just pumping out content, like duh.