Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

That’s why it’s muppets to me. We always assume it’s tuned a “corner” past the ardents…but it slides back…

It’s like the adventures Club…Everyone loves it…but lots of empty seats/space

Marvel in general has more mass appeal than it did back in 2005, even with its slump lately.

It has to go to at least $500 or it’s a mcu flop. I think it’s gotta get past guardians 3 or it’s a major defeat…I just don’t trust it will?

The cast is a mishmash of relatively unknowns…and no doom? What we got going here?

As was discussed over the weekend, I think $400M is the floor. So it might be a flop to YOU if it doesn't hit $500M, but I don't think that is the actual consensus or even how Disney feels.

I don't think its a bunch of unknowns, as was mentioned Pascal is in it. So is Vanessa Kirby who has been in multiple movies in two huge franchises in Fast and MI. And so is Joseph Quinn who was in arguably one of the largest TV franchises in history in Stranger Things.

So its not a bunch of unknowns. Also we don't know if there won't be a Doom appearance yet, especially an end credit scene. This is an opening salvo for these characters, not a single one off.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Marvel in general has more mass appeal than it did back in 2005, even with its slump lately.


As was discussed over the weekend, I think $400M is the floor. So it might be a flop to YOU if it doesn't hit $500M, but I don't think that is the actual consensus or even how Disney feels.

Of course it has much more appeal…it really is amazing. I’m not pitching a vendetta against it. Big fan.

But you can plot the trajectory. Things peaked when cap didn’t show back up on the pad…
And then it kinda drug on due to Rep/event status for a few films. Not good ones either…this multiverse stuff is pretty much nonsense…but it still chugged

Then the Plague…which took a bite but is NOT the reason why they drop and others…like top gun redux KILLED…

And since it’s been vastly diminishing returns.

More than happy to hear opinions why? But not gonna refuse to recognize that reality with toss away excuses

 

[Disney Irish]

Well they will likely turn a profit…

Isn’t there an avatar this year?

But it’s ROI they most care about. And by “most”…I mean 100% of the management of Disney.

It’s always about ancillaries…merch, licensing, sequels and spins…

Always. This is like the only thread I’ve ever seen where it’s ignored daily

So a profit is a scale. Sure…better +$1 than -$1…of course

But it takes 5+ years to develop each of these…usually…especially computer aided boom whiz bang…

So why do it for break even?
And if they’re bad…they can make money and STILL lose potential profits down the road. (I’ll not get started on the obvious example there)

We’re never gonna agree…but there’s a limit to any point in Cherry picking around the elephants in the room too.

Here’s a good one: “thunderbolts is so well reviewed…great for marvel”

But the Seats are largely empty. Are we shooting for cult classic here?

Think Burbank is high fiving that?

Again I don't know where you get 5 years from for movies. I think you're taking the development phase where no major budget is assigned, which could be years, and trying to attribute that to actual production when the budget is actually rolling. Once it goes into actual production its 6-24 months even with extensive post-production for VFX. For example Zootopia 2 when into production in 2023 and is releasing this Thanksgiving, that is 24 months of production, not 5 years.

Will Zootopia lead to further merch down the line, yes.
Will Avatar lead to further merch down the line, again likely yes.
Will Stitch lead to further merch down the line, a SOLID YES!

So yes the ROI for 2025 will be there no matter what any of the others do.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Marvel in general has more mass appeal than it did back in 2005, even with its slump lately.


As was discussed over the weekend, I think $400M is the floor. So it might be a flop to YOU if it doesn't hit $500M, but I don't think that is the actual consensus or even how Disney feels.

I don't think its a bunch of unknowns, as was mentioned Pascal is in it. So is Vanessa Kirby who has been in multiple movies in two huge franchises in Fast and MI. And so is Joseph Quinn who was in arguably one of the largest TV franchises in history in Stranger Things.

So its not a bunch of unknowns. Also we don't know if there won't be a Doom appearance yet, especially an end credit scene. This is an opening salvo for these characters, not a single one off.

It’s a flop to DISNEY if it doesn’t make that much. You gotta get out your own head when it comes to this studios(s)

Break even is not acceptable. It never was.

Not for the amount of cash and time these gobble up.

You kinda remind of my mom when she used to value $20 about 30 years after it was worth $20…dementia is real

 

[Disney Irish]

Of course it has much more appeal…it really is amazing. I’m not pitching a vendetta against it. Big fan.

But you can plot the trajectory. Things peaked when cap didn’t show back up on the pad…
And then it kinda drug on due to Rep/event status for a few films. Not good ones either…this multiverse stuff is pretty much nonsense…but it still chugged

Then the Plague…which took a bite but is NOT the reason why they drop and others…like top gun redux KILLED…

And since it’s been vastly diminishing returns.

More than happy to hear opinions why? But not gonna refuse to recognize that reality with toss away excuses

Now we're getting somewhere. Of course the peak was Endgame, no one ever said it wasn't. I've said MANY times that it was always going to be a reset post-Endgame. But that doesn't mean it couldn't have continued to plug along, but it was never going to get $1B+ consistently and I think pretty much everyone knew it especially post-2020. There were obviously issues along the way, and hopefully we've turn the corner on those.

Also I wish you would stop with this "excuse" thing that you do in an attempt to dismiss people's opinions.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s a flop to DISNEY if it doesn’t make that much. You gotta get out your own head when it comes to this studios(s)

Break even is not acceptable. It never was.

Not for the amount of cash and time these gobble up.

You kinda remind of my mom when she used to value $20 about 30 years after it was worth $20…dementia is real

Dude, if 3 movies clear enough ROI for the entire slate it doesn't matter if all the others just break even or even lose money.

That is one thing you have to get out of your head, not every one of Disney's movies have to clear breakeven, never was a requirement.

 

[Disney Irish]

We are talking about the box office and who wins at the box office.

Maybe we need to start a second thread called the box office plus residuals, streaming, tv revenue, and ancillary products so those of us who want to discuss the box office can do that here and those who want to look at total revenue over the next several years can do that in a separate thread. It gets very confusing when those of us who want to discuss box office numbers in the “box office” thread keep getting countered with numbers that aren’t box office numbers.

At the box office Mufasa essentially broke even at $722 million, to offset Snow Whites box office loses it would have needed to make about $1.1 billion at the box office.

Ok, but again even if we just count the box office, it would be very hard to have a box office winner that doesn't make profit. The math just doesn't work out the other way. As mentioned that would have to mean that every other studio flopped just as bad or worse.

Also with Avatar 3 happening this year I think its guaranteed that Disney will have at least one movie to offset Snow. So I don't think that is going to be an issue.

 

[brideck]

We are talking about the box office and more specifically recently the conversation has been about who wins at the box office.

Maybe we need to start a second thread called the box office plus residuals, streaming, tv revenue, and ancillary products so those of us who want to discuss the box office can do that here and those who want to look at total revenue over the next several years can do that in a separate thread. It gets very confusing when those of us who want to discuss box office numbers in the “box office” thread keep getting countered with numbers that aren’t box office numbers.

This is because companies don't just magically stop making money at that point. What on earth is the point of complaining about how truncated earnings are too small? If people here are so concerned about Disney's bottom line then maybe they need to stop using figures that don't actually match reality in any particularly concrete way.

If we're just going to talk box office returns, then sure... >95% of all movies lose some amount of money. Makes you wonder why anyone would ever make them if that were the end of the story.

 

[Tha Realest]

I’m sure when Iger came back almost three years ago to “fix” the box office issues the plan all along was to treat $180M tentpoles with previous track records of great success like a VC enterprise. “Hey, as long as two or three hit we’re okay.”

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m sure when Iger came back almost three years ago to “fix” the box office issues the plan all along was to treat $180M tentpoles with previous track records of great success like a VC enterprise. “Hey, as long as two or three hit we’re okay.”

Anyone that says that movies during theatrical are a money making business is trying to scam you.

 

[brideck]

The box office thread was always a fun discussion because it was real time and changed weekly, I have no interest in waiting a year or more to talk about whether a movie was a success or not so I think I’ll gracefully move on from this thread, it’s morphed into a topic I don’t particularly find interesting.

You don't actually have to wait any amount of time. Just adjust the bombsights (pun intended). If you know that what TP posts is lowballing things for both failures and successes, then you can still have the conversation that you want to have -- you just have to more or less ignore his attempt to be the definitive answer for everything.

 

[Tha Realest]

You don't actually have to wait any amount of time. Just adjust the bombsights (pun intended). If you know that what TP posts is lowballing things for both failures and successes, then you can still have the conversation that you want to have -- you just have to more or less ignore his attempt to be the definitive answer for everything.

Or maybe someone could create a post-theatrical thread, or “value to D+ thread”

 

[Disney Irish]

Or maybe someone could create a post-theatrical thread, or “value to D+ thread”

Or just understand its an incomplete picture and that there will be no complete answer on a movies profitability. It just means that when a movie does better than breakeven during theatrical its for sure going to be profitable, but if its not it'll take work post-theatrical. And that is the nuisance that some of us provide during the conversation and what happens post-theatrical which many find interesting within the context of the box office.

I mean I understand that this thread was started as just another place to air grievances about Disney, at the time the 2023 box office specifically. But really became a dumping ground for all grievances and some just want to continue only that. The reality is that if someone wanted to just look at box office numbers and nothing else they don't have to come here to do it.

 

[Tha Realest]

Or just understand its an incomplete picture and that there will be no complete answer on a movies profitability. It just means that when a movie does better than breakeven during theatrical its for sure going to be profitable, but if its not it'll take work post-theatrical. And that is the nuisance that some of us provide during the conversation and what happens post-theatrical.

I mean I understand that this thread was started as just another place to air grievances about Disney, at the time the 2023 box office specifically. But really became a dumping ground for all grievances and some just want to continue only that. The reality is that if someone wanted to just look at box office numbers and nothing else they don't have to come here to do it.

(Taps thread sign) Or just create your own thing like DA did!

 

[Disney Irish]

(Taps thread sign) Or just create your own thing like DA did!

Thanks for the suggestion, I'll take it under advisement. Until then I'll continue with the discussion that happens to be occurring within the thread.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Dude, if 3 movies clear enough ROI for the entire slate it doesn't matter if all the others just break even or even lose money.

That is one thing you have to get out of your head, not every one of Disney's movies have to clear breakeven, never was a requirement.

Yeah…for Disney it really does, Jack

Making profit and having wide appeal (you know…eyes? Ticket sales? Pub?) really does matter to Disney.

That doesn’t mean they don’t have flops…but then expanding the existence of flops into that flops don’t matter at all is like what the F student in Econ writes his paper about

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I mean I understand that this thread was started as just another place to air grievances about Disney, at the time the 2023 box office specifically. But really became a dumping ground for all grievances and some just want to continue only that. The reality is that if someone wanted to just look at box office numbers and nothing else they don't have to come here to do it.

Now see here is where you didn’t read post #1. It’s to discuss performance at the box office. Like the actual performance.

Maybe it’s confusing?

And second…you really showed your hand here. I love it when people adamantly say it’s not about defending Disney (specifically)…then actually cry for Disney in an “airing of grievances”

Know when to fold ‘em, Kenny rogers

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Second you assume the end goal is to clear enough to make profit, whatever that number may be, and that they count that as a ROI failure if its only a couple hundred Million. We can't assume that just because that is what "we" would want if we were in their position.

Actually…we do…can…and should “assume” that. Because popularity is a direct correlation to longterm appeal and higher return for the studio and company. It’s 1:1.

What had a better ROI? Batman or bill and Ted’s bogus journey…

That one is a crème puff…easy one.

Not true. The bar isn't as high as all of that. As an example, per Deadline, Mufasa netted $175m for Disney after grossing only $722m against a $200m budget.

If Stitch does as massively as people are thinking (against a very reasonable budget), it'll easily erase SW and then some.

So is it about profit, appeal and making money, or no?

Can you get together with your Gaelic bro and come up with a coherent theme?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Again I don't know where you get 5 years from for movies. I think you're taking the development phase where no major budget is assigned, which could be years, and trying to attribute that to actual production when the budget is actually rolling. Once it goes into actual production its 6-24 months even with extensive post-production for VFX. For example Zootopia 2 when into production in 2023 and is releasing this Thanksgiving, that is 24 months of production, not 5 years.

Will Zootopia lead to further merch down the line, yes.
Will Avatar lead to further merch down the line, again likely yes.
Will Stitch lead to further merch down the line, a SOLID YES!

So yes the ROI for 2025 will be there no matter what any of the others do.

Because there’s a lot more to movies than just a cast and the camera operators…all the time in development is waste of energy and labor if they aren’t gonna hit. There are no guarantees…but they sure as hell want them. It’s lost opportunity cost. There’s a place where it’s about “genre” and “exposition writing”…it’s called college and that ain’t real. Not in Hollywood

Hell…Disney already has a whole division that they constantly give dead end busy work to with no intention of following up on…it’s called WDI…
Don’t think they need one at the studio too.

 

[TP2000]

You want a prediction? Thunderbolts* should look pretty similar to Cap 4 for its WW total (~$200m/$420m) when all is said and done. This'll put it firmly in the wash category -- far from covered in red ink.

Now that Captain America 4 is done with its run at the box office for all intents and purposes, here's how that looks in both the current situation, and the forward-looking 2.5X situation that adds in unknown future streaming income.

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Alternate Captain America 4: 2.5 Times Production Budget Requires $450 Global Box Office = $34 Million Loss

If Stitch does as massively as people are thinking (against a very reasonable budget), it'll easily erase SW and then some.

This might be a good time to do a pre-summer check in on how Disney's box office losses have piled up the past few months, to see what it will take for Stitch, Elio and Fantastic Four to dig out from underneath those losses before they can get to Christmas with Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3, etc.

The top line number is that as of the middle of May, Burbank has lost $407 Million at the box office in 2025.

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $270, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $272 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $23, Overseas $46 = $21 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $77, Overseas $58 = $50 Million Loss???

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