Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

The other factor to remember is takes a huge blockbuster to offset a movie like Snow White (that loses $200+ million).

Since Disney only gets (roughly) half the theater revenue it takes a huge hit to make up for every loser, with Disney budgets often $200 million + another 50% for marketing something else has to make a billion + just for Disney to make up for a different films $200m loss.

If you’re only release of handful of films a year you really can’t afford to have massive flops because there (often) aren’t enough blockbusters to make up for those massive losses.

Even if they ultimately manage a yearly profit it’s a horrible return on investment if they’re spending a couple billion and only making a couple hundred million in profit at the end of the year. They’d be better off using that money adding E tickets at the parks every year for that guaranteed LL profit.

First I think we need to stop assuming that we know what the actual goals are for studios within the walls of Disney.

Second you assume the end goal is to clear enough to make profit, whatever that number may be, and that they count that as a ROI failure if its only a couple hundred Million. We can't assume that just because that is what "we" would want if we were in their position.

As corporate synergy is their stated goal I don't think it can be assumed that any profit from studios is considered a ROI failure. As that will end up having a multiplier beyond just the profits made from the movies themselves.

 

[brideck]

The other factor to remember is takes a huge blockbuster to offset a movie like Snow White (that loses $200+ million).

Since Disney only gets (roughly) half the theater revenue it takes a huge hit to make up for every loser, with Disney budgets often $200 million + another 50% for marketing something else has to make a billion + just for Disney to make up for a different films $200m loss.

Not true. The bar isn't as high as all of that. As an example, per Deadline, Mufasa netted $175m for Disney after grossing only $722m against a $200m budget.

If Stitch does as massively as people are thinking (against a very reasonable budget), it'll easily erase SW and then some.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Really well-liked within its fandom, but doesn’t have a broader cultural appeal like other four-quadrant type properties?

Exactly…a very ardent…but niche following that Hollywood assumes will upscale to mass…but doesn’t translate to the mass/foreign markets

The Chris Evans FF made $333M, or $550M inflation adjusted to today. I think it’ll clear that? Maybe?

I think it will clear…somewhere in that $500-$600 ish range

Now what will happen is they’ll get credit with a “depressed” budget - as seems to have happened with Captain falcon - and lauded…it’s very chic right now (even though these have been developed before Marvel started posting losers)…

But it’s not what big brother wants/expects

What’s that? Just use your brain…

They will “settle” for $700-800 for an mcu…frankly expect $1 bil + and believe that $1.5s should happen with regularity .

Why? Hubris. Blue ocean, quarterly pressure. The expectation of pushing ancillary sales.
And megamind at the helm. It’s all about the dude in the mirror.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Except what else would your scenario be about except Disney in the context of the conversation we were having, so I call BS on that.

You assume incorrectly. It was just a math example. Nothing more. Just to show box office gross does not mean a profit on movies. Drill back on the posts you will see.

It has nothing to do with Disney specifically.

 

[Disney Irish]

You assume incorrectly. It was just a math example. Nothing more. Just to show box office gross does not mean a profit on movies. Drill back on the posts you will see.

It has nothing to do with Disney specifically.

Ok, but even so if you attribute that to Disney it would be impossible for Disney to be the top earner at the box office in such a scenario. So its not a good scenario for our discussion if you're trying to prove that Disney wouldn't make a profit but still be top earner. Which is why I called it out, and why it doesn't make sense in context.

Long story short, if Disney is top earner they are almost certainly turning a profit.

 

[Disney Irish]

Exactly…a very ardent…but niche following that Hollywood assumes will upscale to mass…but doesn’t translate to the mass/foreign markets

I think it has more mass appeal than it did when it originally released with Evans. So we'll see how it turns out. But I think WoM will help here as it would be a second MCU movie with positive reviews if they happen, and I think that has great appeal for many.

I think it will clear…somewhere in that $500-$600 ish range

I think that is doable, maybe more if positive ground swell happens.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think it has more mass appeal than it did when it originally released with Evans. So we'll see how it turns out. But I think WoM will help here as it would be a second MCU movie with positive reviews if they happen, and I think that has great appeal for many.

That’s why it’s muppets to me. We always assume it’s tuned a “corner” past the ardents…but it slides back…

It’s like the adventures Club…Everyone loves it…but lots of empty seats/space

I think that is doable, maybe more if positive ground swell happens.

It has to go to at least $500 or it’s a mcu flop. I think it’s gotta get past guardians 3 or it’s a major defeat…I just don’t trust it will?

The cast is a mishmash of relatively unknowns…and no doom? What we got going here?

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I think it has more mass appeal than it did when it originally released with Evans. So we'll see how it turns out. But I think WoM will help here as it would be a second MCU movie with positive reviews, and I think that has great appeal for many.


I think that is doable, maybe more if positive ground swell happens.

This. ^

I’m not gonna quit on my belief that The Fantastic Four will make a billion.

Why?

Because it’s the 1 film out of the 3 MCU films that Disney and Marvel Studios seem to be promoting like it’s an actual event film by way of the following reasons:

Exhibit A: Sharing the film’s theme from Michael Giacchino not only once during D23 but a second time as a surprise epilogue to the Marvel Studios Infinity Saga concert experience in Los Angeles during the second to last weekend of August.

Exhibit B: The fact that the cast was out there promoting the teaser trailer when it launched at the beginning of February at the Alabama Space Center, and the hype surrounding the teaser trailer made it debut to over 200 million views globally in its first 24 hours that made it the 10th biggest trailer launch ever, let alone one that made it into the Top 10 all-time trailer launches.

Exhibit C: The special Fantastic 4-themed IMAX countdown that played before Cap 4 and Thunderbolts* that made people say “oh Marvel Studios is actually really serious about the Fantastic 4.”

Exhibit D: Special limited edition trading cards for The Fantastic 4 being given away at 4DX Regal screenings of Thunderbolts*, a way of marketing no one’s ever done for a movie in America, only in Japan. By the way, I got the same cards off of eBay for $154 ($30.80 per card).

And I don’t have to remind you about how the official account does their weekly tweet every Sunday night at 7PM ET/4PM PT about Reed Richards saying that they “make a point to do family dinner every week, Sunday at 7 on the dot,” with occasional unexpected change ups when it came to the scene of Johnny telling Sue and Reed they were late for dinner and just recently on Mother’s Day when they pulled out the scene of Johnny telling Sue she’ll be the best mom in the world.

Plus, don’t forget that this is the last film before the next Avengers movie comes out, which might give it a boost, along with the positive reception of Thunderbolts*, if we see Robert Downey Jr’s Doom in the very last end credits scene of the movie.

So, for those reasons alone, I’ll take my chances, flaunt my pride, and believe against all odds that Fantastic 4 WILL make a billion dollars.

That’s why it’s muppets to me. We always assume it’s tuned a “corner” past the ardents…but it slides back…

It’s like the adventures Club…Everyone loves it…but lots of empty seats/space


It has to go to at least $500 or it’s a mcu flop. I think it’s gotta get past guardians 3 or it’s a major defeat…I just don’t trust it will?

The cast is a mishmash of relatively unknowns…and no doom? What we got going here?

Sorry, but this is just not true in the case of Pedro Pascal with him starring in Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, and the big one in The Mandalorian. Even Joseph Quinn is well-known from Stranger Things. And don’t get me started on Ebon Moss-Bachrach from The Bear. Now, you could probably make a case for Vanessa Kirby being unknown but even people might know her and go “hey isn’t that the White Widow from the last two Mission: Impossible movies” when they see her.

Also, you seem to be ignoring my comment sayin’ RDJ Doom’s in the end credits scene.

Also, your mistrust that people won’t show up for it and thinking it’s like The Muppets are unjustified.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Ok, but even so if you attribute that to Disney it would be impossible for Disney to be the top earner at the box office in such a scenario. So its not a good scenario for our discussion if you're trying to prove that Disney wouldn't make a profit but still be top earner. Which is why I called it out, and why it doesn't make sense in context.

Long story short, if Disney is top earner they are almost certainly turning a profit.

I am not attributing anything to Disney in the replies to these posts. Drill back, its just a math example.

As for Disney, drill back, I say Disney will probably take the crown for box office gross in 2025.

The math at the end of 2025 will tell us if if cost them to get that crown, or they take the crown and make some profit at the box office too.

 

[Tha Realest]

This. ^

I’m not gonna quit on my belief that The Fantastic Four will make a billion.

Why?

Because it’s the 1 film out of the 3 MCU films that Disney and Marvel Studios seem to be promoting like it’s an actual event film by way of the following reasons:

Exhibit A: Sharing the film’s theme from Michael Giacchino not only once during D23 but a second time as a surprise epilogue to the Marvel Studios Infinity Saga concert experience in Los Angeles during the second to last weekend of August.

Exhibit B: The fact that the cast was out there promoting the teaser trailer when it launched at the beginning of February at the Alabama Space Center, and the hype surrounding the teaser trailer made it debut to over 200 million views globally in its first 24 hours that made it the 10th biggest trailer launch ever, let alone one that made it into the Top 10 all-time trailer launches.

Exhibit C: The special Fantastic 4-themed IMAX countdown that played before Cap 4 and Thunderbolts* that made people say “oh Marvel Studios is actually really serious about the Fantastic 4.”

Exhibit D: Special limited edition trading cards for The Fantastic 4 being given away at 4DX Regal screenings of Thunderbolts*, a way of marketing no one’s ever done for a movie in America, only in Japan. By the way, I got the same cards off of eBay for $154 ($30.80 per card).

And I don’t have to remind you about how the official account does their weekly tweet every Sunday night at 7PM ET/4PM PT about Reed Richards saying that they “make a point to do family dinner every week, Sunday at 7 on the dot,” with occasional unexpected change ups when it came to the scene of Johnny telling Sue and Reed they were late for dinner and just recently on Mother’s Day when they pulled out the scene of Johnny telling Sue she’ll be the best mom in the world.

Plus, don’t forget that this is the last film before the next Avengers movie comes out, which might give it a boost, along with the positive reception of Thunderbolts*, if we see Robert Downey Jr’s Doom in the very last end credits scene of the movie.

So, for those reasons alone, I’ll take my chances, flaunt my pride, and believe against all odds that Fantastic 4 WILL make a billion dollars.


Sorry, but this is just not true in the case of Pedro Pascal with him starring in Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, and the big one in The Mandalorian. Even Joseph Quinn is well-known from Stranger Things. And don’t get me started on Ebon Moss-Bachrach from The Bear. Now, you could probably make a case for Vanessa Kirby being unknown but even people might know her and go “hey isn’t that the White Widow from the last two Mission: Impossible movies” when they see her.

Also, you seem to be ignoring my comment sayin’ RDJ Doom’s in the end credits scene.

Also, your mistrust that people won’t show up for it and thinking it’s like The Muppets are unjustified.

This. ^

I’m not gonna quit on my belief that The Fantastic Four will make a billion.

Why?

Because it’s the 1 film out of the 3 MCU films that Disney and Marvel Studios seem to be promoting like it’s an actual event film by way of the following reasons:

Exhibit A: Sharing the film’s theme from Michael Giacchino not only once during D23 but a second time as a surprise epilogue to the Marvel Studios Infinity Saga concert experience in Los Angeles during the second to last weekend of August.

Huh? Giacchino’s done a ton of scores, for good movies as well as bad. I’m excited for it - but the sound of that theme and the look of this film is evocative of Tomorrowland (also scored by Giacchino).

Exhibit B: The fact that the cast was out there promoting the teaser trailer when it launched at the beginning of February at the Alabama Space Center, and the hype surrounding the teaser trailer made it debut to over 200 million views globally in its first 24 hours that made it the 10th biggest trailer launch ever, let alone one that made it into the Top 10 all-time trailer launches.

There’s not been a great correlation between trailer views and box office success.

Exhibit C: The special Fantastic 4-themed IMAX countdown that played before Cap 4 and Thunderbolts* that made people say “oh Marvel Studios is actually really serious about the Fantastic 4.”

Kinda niche data point.

Exhibit D: Special limited edition trading cards for The Fantastic 4 being given away at 4DX Regal screenings of Thunderbolts*, a way of marketing no one’s ever done for a movie in America, only in Japan. By the way, I got the same cards off of eBay for $154 ($30.80 per card).

Extremely niche data point.

And I don’t have to remind you about how the official account does their weekly tweet every Sunday night at 7PM ET/4PM PT about Reed Richards saying that they “make a point to do family dinner every week, Sunday at 7 on the dot,” with occasional unexpected change ups when it came to the scene of Johnny telling Sue and Reed they were late for dinner and just recently on Mother’s Day when they pulled out the scene of Johnny telling Sue she’ll be the best mom in the world.

Plus, don’t forget that this is the last film before the next Avengers movie comes out, which might give it a boost, along with the positive reception of Thunderbolts*, if we see Robert Downey Jr’s Doom in the very last end credits scene of the movie.

Possibly. It’s also the next MCU film after Captain America and Thunderbolts, which may break even.

So, for those reasons alone, I’ll take my chances, flaunt my pride, and believe against all odds that Fantastic 4 WILL make a billion dollars.


Sorry, but this is just not true in the case of Pedro Pascal with him starring in Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, and the big one in The Mandalorian.

I like Pascal. But he’s starred in a number of genre films that have also bombed over the last few years. He’s not a sure box office thing.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Giacchino’s theme actually feels like a mix of what you would see in a 1960’s Disney Parks ride in a retrofuturistic world mixed with Meet the Robinsons.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sorry, but this is just not true in the case of Pedro Pascal with him starring in Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, and the big one in The Mandalorian. Even Joseph Quinn is well-known from Stranger Things. And don’t get me started on Ebon Moss-Bachrach from The Bear. Now, you could probably make a case for Vanessa Kirby being unknown but even people might know her and go “hey isn’t that the White Widow from the last two Mission: Impossible movies” when they see her.

Also, you seem to be ignoring my comment sayin’ RDJ Doom’s in the end credits scene.

Also, your mistrust that people won’t show up for it and thinking it’s like The Muppets are unjustified.

I totally forgot about pascal…
Yes he is a draw…so that would help…

The rest of all that data mining stuff you must spend nights doing?…we’ll see.

You’re on record and let’s see if it plays?

 

[Disney Irish]

I am not attributing anything to Disney in the replies to these posts. Drill back, its just a math example.

As for Disney, drill back, I say Disney will probably take the crown for box office gross in 2025.

The math at the end of 2025 will tell us if if cost them to get that crown, or they take the crown and make some profit at the box office too.

And I'm trying to tell you, as others have like @brideck, that if they are the box office winner for 2025 its almost impossible for them to have not turned a profit. They both go hand-in-hand.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And I'm trying to tell you, as others have like @brideck, that if they are the box office winner for 2025 its almost impossible for them to have not turned a profit. They both go hand-in-hand.

Well they will likely turn a profit…

Isn’t there an avatar this year?

But it’s ROI they most care about. And by “most”…I mean 100% of the management of Disney.

It’s always about ancillaries…merch, licensing, sequels and spins…

Always. This is like the only thread I’ve ever seen where it’s ignored daily

So a profit is a scale. Sure…better +$1 than -$1…of course

But it takes 5+ years to develop each of these…usually…especially computer aided boom whiz bang…

So why do it for break even?
And if they’re bad…they can make money and STILL lose potential profits down the road. (I’ll not get started on the obvious example there)

We’re never gonna agree…but there’s a limit to any point in Cherry picking around the elephants in the room too.

Here’s a good one: “thunderbolts is so well reviewed…great for marvel”

But the Seats are largely empty. Are we shooting for cult classic here?

Think Burbank is high fiving that?

 

[Disney Irish]

That’s why it’s muppets to me. We always assume it’s tuned a “corner” past the ardents…but it slides back…

It’s like the adventures Club…Everyone loves it…but lots of empty seats/space

Marvel in general has more mass appeal than it did back in 2005, even with its slump lately.

It has to go to at least $500 or it’s a mcu flop. I think it’s gotta get past guardians 3 or it’s a major defeat…I just don’t trust it will?

The cast is a mishmash of relatively unknowns…and no doom? What we got going here?

As was discussed over the weekend, I think $400M is the floor. So it might be a flop to YOU if it doesn't hit $500M, but I don't think that is the actual consensus or even how Disney feels.

I don't think its a bunch of unknowns, as was mentioned Pascal is in it. So is Vanessa Kirby who has been in multiple movies in two huge franchises in Fast and MI. And so is Joseph Quinn who was in arguably one of the largest TV franchises in history in Stranger Things.

So its not a bunch of unknowns. Also we don't know if there won't be a Doom appearance yet, especially an end credit scene. This is an opening salvo for these characters, not a single one off.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Marvel in general has more mass appeal than it did back in 2005, even with its slump lately.


As was discussed over the weekend, I think $400M is the floor. So it might be a flop to YOU if it doesn't hit $500M, but I don't think that is the actual consensus or even how Disney feels.

Of course it has much more appeal…it really is amazing. I’m not pitching a vendetta against it. Big fan.

But you can plot the trajectory. Things peaked when cap didn’t show back up on the pad…
And then it kinda drug on due to Rep/event status for a few films. Not good ones either…this multiverse stuff is pretty much nonsense…but it still chugged

Then the Plague…which took a bite but is NOT the reason why they drop and others…like top gun redux KILLED…

And since it’s been vastly diminishing returns.

More than happy to hear opinions why? But not gonna refuse to recognize that reality with toss away excuses

 

[Disney Irish]

Well they will likely turn a profit…

Isn’t there an avatar this year?

But it’s ROI they most care about. And by “most”…I mean 100% of the management of Disney.

It’s always about ancillaries…merch, licensing, sequels and spins…

Always. This is like the only thread I’ve ever seen where it’s ignored daily

So a profit is a scale. Sure…better +$1 than -$1…of course

But it takes 5+ years to develop each of these…usually…especially computer aided boom whiz bang…

So why do it for break even?
And if they’re bad…they can make money and STILL lose potential profits down the road. (I’ll not get started on the obvious example there)

We’re never gonna agree…but there’s a limit to any point in Cherry picking around the elephants in the room too.

Here’s a good one: “thunderbolts is so well reviewed…great for marvel”

But the Seats are largely empty. Are we shooting for cult classic here?

Think Burbank is high fiving that?

Again I don't know where you get 5 years from for movies. I think you're taking the development phase where no major budget is assigned, which could be years, and trying to attribute that to actual production when the budget is actually rolling. Once it goes into actual production its 6-24 months even with extensive post-production for VFX. For example Zootopia 2 when into production in 2023 and is releasing this Thanksgiving, that is 24 months of production, not 5 years.

Will Zootopia lead to further merch down the line, yes.
Will Avatar lead to further merch down the line, again likely yes.
Will Stitch lead to further merch down the line, a SOLID YES!

So yes the ROI for 2025 will be there no matter what any of the others do.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Marvel in general has more mass appeal than it did back in 2005, even with its slump lately.


As was discussed over the weekend, I think $400M is the floor. So it might be a flop to YOU if it doesn't hit $500M, but I don't think that is the actual consensus or even how Disney feels.

I don't think its a bunch of unknowns, as was mentioned Pascal is in it. So is Vanessa Kirby who has been in multiple movies in two huge franchises in Fast and MI. And so is Joseph Quinn who was in arguably one of the largest TV franchises in history in Stranger Things.

So its not a bunch of unknowns. Also we don't know if there won't be a Doom appearance yet, especially an end credit scene. This is an opening salvo for these characters, not a single one off.

It’s a flop to DISNEY if it doesn’t make that much. You gotta get out your own head when it comes to this studios(s)

Break even is not acceptable. It never was.

Not for the amount of cash and time these gobble up.

You kinda remind of my mom when she used to value $20 about 30 years after it was worth $20…dementia is real

 

[Disney Irish]

Of course it has much more appeal…it really is amazing. I’m not pitching a vendetta against it. Big fan.

But you can plot the trajectory. Things peaked when cap didn’t show back up on the pad…
And then it kinda drug on due to Rep/event status for a few films. Not good ones either…this multiverse stuff is pretty much nonsense…but it still chugged

Then the Plague…which took a bite but is NOT the reason why they drop and others…like top gun redux KILLED…

And since it’s been vastly diminishing returns.

More than happy to hear opinions why? But not gonna refuse to recognize that reality with toss away excuses

Now we're getting somewhere. Of course the peak was Endgame, no one ever said it wasn't. I've said MANY times that it was always going to be a reset post-Endgame. But that doesn't mean it couldn't have continued to plug along, but it was never going to get $1B+ consistently and I think pretty much everyone knew it especially post-2020. There were obviously issues along the way, and hopefully we've turn the corner on those.

Also I wish you would stop with this "excuse" thing that you do in an attempt to dismiss people's opinions.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s a flop to DISNEY if it doesn’t make that much. You gotta get out your own head when it comes to this studios(s)

Break even is not acceptable. It never was.

Not for the amount of cash and time these gobble up.

You kinda remind of my mom when she used to value $20 about 30 years after it was worth $20…dementia is real

Dude, if 3 movies clear enough ROI for the entire slate it doesn't matter if all the others just break even or even lose money.

That is one thing you have to get out of your head, not every one of Disney's movies have to clear breakeven, never was a requirement.