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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
Fantastic four has always had a lot in common with the muppets.
Really well-liked within its fandom, but doesn’t have a broader cultural appeal like other four-quadrant type properties?
I’m interested to see how this one breaks?
The Chris Evans FF made $333M, or $550M inflation adjusted to today. I think it’ll clear that? Maybe?
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Except in such a scenario Disney wouldn't be top earner at the box office. Because that assumes that no other studio is able to string together any other movies that do better than $400M, which is almost impossible. Because if that scenario ever comes to pass we have bigger problems than Disney not making profit, we have the actual downfall of theatrical. And that day may comes soon enough, but it won't be in 2025.

Plus the more likely scenario is that 2025 is carried by 2 or 3 movies for Disney - Avatar, Stitch, and possibly Zootopia 2. All the rest that make profit are just gravy at that point.
It was just an example and I never mentioned Disney.
 

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
Also, while the Fantastic 4 is new to the MCU, it’s not new to mass audiences who have wanted and waited to see Marvel Studios do them right when Fox butchered them three times (Roger Corman, Tim Story, and Josh Trank).

The Tim Story films, while not good, did make a lot of money.

For this new film series to make a billion dollars out of the gate it would have to achieve what only two other new film series in the MCU did (BP and Captain Marvel, and those did so at the height of the MCU’s popularity). It’s entering into a crowded box office and the MCU films aren’t performing as well as they once did.
So, I’ll take my chances and ignore anyone who doubts this movie can make a billion just because they’re worthless, useless, faithless, and jaded
If you want to ignore most reason and common sense, that’s fine, we’re just trying to save you from all the face-planting you’ve done with this insistence that Disney will return to hand drawn animation with a 2029 Tiana sequel theatrical release
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Then you’re hedging…so don’t bother lecturing anyone…anything…about your interpretations of FF and/or MCU

And it’s not a gotcha…it’s an opinion…take your shot. You might be right, wrong, over or under. I’m wrong about things every single day…but it’s not always here.

I’m intentionally trying to ignore the forthcoming “thunderbolts actually did well…” nonsense. Bull. Not only is covered in red ink…it’s not what Disney wants from its tentpoles. The truth should have its day (and every day). Lather rinse on this…I’m sure

But the “money doesn’t matter for the movies”…immediately followed by claiming “victory” for your favorite company if they do make a buck…is falling short of the green ⛳
I'm not hedging, I'm flat out saying I think it'll do well. I'm just not putting a specific number on it.

Also again you're specifically trying to speak as if you have a seat at the table in Burbank, you don't. You don't know what Disney's expectation of this or any other recent MCU movie. For all you know so far Thunderbolts is doing as Disney expected. So maybe instead of trying to speak for Disney you just state your opinion, ie that its not what YOU expect for a Disney tentpole.

Normally I don’t…I’ve been engaging on forums such as this for years with anyone from teens to the most delusional, dust huffing faux “adults” out there…

It’s a good time killer…you meet some nice people along the way…engagement helps the brain (well…most of the time 🤓)

But the “hey, mom, I made myself an “insider” with a pod/vlogg (so please don’t kick me out of the basement)” trend needs to be called out for what it is…

The beatings will continue until common sense returns.
I don't think that poster was trying to promote themselves as some insider. Also we have posters of all different make ups here, including those on the spectrum. So instead of trying to quiet them with your snark maybe find a little kindness.
 

DisneyWarrior27

Well-Known Member
I'm not hedging, I'm flat out saying I think it'll do well. I'm just not putting a specific number on it.

Also again you're specifically trying to speak as if you have a seat at the table in Burbank, you don't. You don't know what Disney's expectation of this or any other recent MCU movie. For all you know so far Thunderbolts is doing as Disney expected. So maybe instead of trying to speak for Disney you just state your opinion, ie that its not what YOU expect for a Disney tentpole.


I don't think that poster was trying to promote themselves as some insider. Also we have posters of all different make ups here, including those on the spectrum. So instead of trying to quiet them with your snark maybe find a little kindness.
This. ^
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
The other factor to remember is takes a huge blockbuster to offset a movie like Snow White (that loses $200+ million).

Since Disney only gets (roughly) half the theater revenue it takes a huge hit to make up for every loser, with Disney budgets often $200 million + another 50% for marketing something else has to make a billion + just for Disney to make up for a different films $200m loss.

If you’re only release of handful of films a year you really can’t afford to have massive flops because there (often) aren’t enough blockbusters to make up for those massive losses.

Even if they ultimately manage a yearly profit it’s a horrible return on investment if they’re spending a couple billion and only making a couple hundred million in profit at the end of the year. They’d be better off using that money adding E tickets at the parks every year for that guaranteed LL profit.
First I think we need to stop assuming that we know what the actual goals are for studios within the walls of Disney.

Second you assume the end goal is to clear enough to make profit, whatever that number may be, and that they count that as a ROI failure if its only a couple hundred Million. We can't assume that just because that is what "we" would want if we were in their position.

As corporate synergy is their stated goal I don't think it can be assumed that any profit from studios is considered a ROI failure. As that will end up having a multiplier beyond just the profits made from the movies themselves.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
The other factor to remember is takes a huge blockbuster to offset a movie like Snow White (that loses $200+ million).

Since Disney only gets (roughly) half the theater revenue it takes a huge hit to make up for every loser, with Disney budgets often $200 million + another 50% for marketing something else has to make a billion + just for Disney to make up for a different films $200m loss.

Not true. The bar isn't as high as all of that. As an example, per Deadline, Mufasa netted $175m for Disney after grossing only $722m against a $200m budget.

If Stitch does as massively as people are thinking (against a very reasonable budget), it'll easily erase SW and then some.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Really well-liked within its fandom, but doesn’t have a broader cultural appeal like other four-quadrant type properties?
Exactly…a very ardent…but niche following that Hollywood assumes will upscale to mass…but doesn’t translate to the mass/foreign markets

The Chris Evans FF made $333M, or $550M inflation adjusted to today. I think it’ll clear that? Maybe?

I think it will clear…somewhere in that $500-$600 ish range

Now what will happen is they’ll get credit with a “depressed” budget - as seems to have happened with Captain falcon - and lauded…it’s very chic right now (even though these have been developed before Marvel started posting losers)…

But it’s not what big brother wants/expects

What’s that? Just use your brain…

They will “settle” for $700-800 for an mcu…frankly expect $1 bil + and believe that $1.5s should happen with regularity .

Why? Hubris. Blue ocean, quarterly pressure. The expectation of pushing ancillary sales.
And megamind at the helm. It’s all about the dude in the mirror.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
You assume incorrectly. It was just a math example. Nothing more. Just to show box office gross does not mean a profit on movies. Drill back on the posts you will see.

It has nothing to do with Disney specifically.
Ok, but even so if you attribute that to Disney it would be impossible for Disney to be the top earner at the box office in such a scenario. So its not a good scenario for our discussion if you're trying to prove that Disney wouldn't make a profit but still be top earner. Which is why I called it out, and why it doesn't make sense in context.

Long story short, if Disney is top earner they are almost certainly turning a profit.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Exactly…a very ardent…but niche following that Hollywood assumes will upscale to mass…but doesn’t translate to the mass/foreign markets
I think it has more mass appeal than it did when it originally released with Evans. So we'll see how it turns out. But I think WoM will help here as it would be a second MCU movie with positive reviews if they happen, and I think that has great appeal for many.

I think it will clear…somewhere in that $500-$600 ish range
I think that is doable, maybe more if positive ground swell happens.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I think it has more mass appeal than it did when it originally released with Evans. So we'll see how it turns out. But I think WoM will help here as it would be a second MCU movie with positive reviews if they happen, and I think that has great appeal for many.
That’s why it’s muppets to me. We always assume it’s tuned a “corner” past the ardents…but it slides back…

It’s like the adventures Club…Everyone loves it…but lots of empty seats/space

I think that is doable, maybe more if positive ground swell happens.
It has to go to at least $500 or it’s a mcu flop. I think it’s gotta get past guardians 3 or it’s a major defeat…I just don’t trust it will?

The cast is a mishmash of relatively unknowns…and no doom? What we got going here?
 

DisneyWarrior27

Well-Known Member
I think it has more mass appeal than it did when it originally released with Evans. So we'll see how it turns out. But I think WoM will help here as it would be a second MCU movie with positive reviews, and I think that has great appeal for many.


I think that is doable, maybe more if positive ground swell happens.
This. ^

I’m not gonna quit on my belief that The Fantastic Four will make a billion.

Why?

Because it’s the 1 film out of the 3 MCU films that Disney and Marvel Studios seem to be promoting like it’s an actual event film by way of the following reasons:

Exhibit A: Sharing the film’s theme from Michael Giacchino not only once during D23 but a second time as a surprise epilogue to the Marvel Studios Infinity Saga concert experience in Los Angeles during the second to last weekend of August.

Exhibit B: The fact that the cast was out there promoting the teaser trailer when it launched at the beginning of February at the Alabama Space Center, and the hype surrounding the teaser trailer made it debut to over 200 million views globally in its first 24 hours that made it the 10th biggest trailer launch ever, let alone one that made it into the Top 10 all-time trailer launches.

Exhibit C: The special Fantastic 4-themed IMAX countdown that played before Cap 4 and Thunderbolts* that made people say “oh Marvel Studios is actually really serious about the Fantastic 4.”

Exhibit D: Special limited edition trading cards for The Fantastic 4 being given away at 4DX Regal screenings of Thunderbolts*, a way of marketing no one’s ever done for a movie in America, only in Japan. By the way, I got the same cards off of eBay for $154 ($30.80 per card).

And I don’t have to remind you about how the official account does their weekly tweet every Sunday night at 7PM ET/4PM PT about Reed Richards saying that they “make a point to do family dinner every week, Sunday at 7 on the dot,” with occasional unexpected change ups when it came to the scene of Johnny telling Sue and Reed they were late for dinner and just recently on Mother’s Day when they pulled out the scene of Johnny telling Sue she’ll be the best mom in the world.

Plus, don’t forget that this is the last film before the next Avengers movie comes out, which might give it a boost, along with the positive reception of Thunderbolts*, if we see Robert Downey Jr’s Doom in the very last end credits scene of the movie.

So, for those reasons alone, I’ll take my chances, flaunt my pride, and believe against all odds that Fantastic 4 WILL make a billion dollars.

That’s why it’s muppets to me. We always assume it’s tuned a “corner” past the ardents…but it slides back…

It’s like the adventures Club…Everyone loves it…but lots of empty seats/space


It has to go to at least $500 or it’s a mcu flop. I think it’s gotta get past guardians 3 or it’s a major defeat…I just don’t trust it will?

The cast is a mishmash of relatively unknowns…and no doom? What we got going here?
Sorry, but this is just not true in the case of Pedro Pascal with him starring in Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, and the big one in The Mandalorian. Even Joseph Quinn is well-known from Stranger Things. And don’t get me started on Ebon Moss-Bachrach from The Bear. Now, you could probably make a case for Vanessa Kirby being unknown but even people might know her and go “hey isn’t that the White Widow from the last two Mission: Impossible movies” when they see her.

Also, you seem to be ignoring my comment sayin’ RDJ Doom’s in the end credits scene.

Also, your mistrust that people won’t show up for it and thinking it’s like The Muppets are unjustified.
 

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Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Ok, but even so if you attribute that to Disney it would be impossible for Disney to be the top earner at the box office in such a scenario. So its not a good scenario for our discussion if you're trying to prove that Disney wouldn't make a profit but still be top earner. Which is why I called it out, and why it doesn't make sense in context.

Long story short, if Disney is top earner they are almost certainly turning a profit.
I am not attributing anything to Disney in the replies to these posts. Drill back, its just a math example.

As for Disney, drill back, I say Disney will probably take the crown for box office gross in 2025.

The math at the end of 2025 will tell us if if cost them to get that crown, or they take the crown and make some profit at the box office too.
 

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
This. ^

I’m not gonna quit on my belief that The Fantastic Four will make a billion.

Why?

Because it’s the 1 film out of the 3 MCU films that Disney and Marvel Studios seem to be promoting like it’s an actual event film by way of the following reasons:

Exhibit A: Sharing the film’s theme from Michael Giacchino not only once during D23 but a second time as a surprise epilogue to the Marvel Studios Infinity Saga concert experience in Los Angeles during the second to last weekend of August.

Exhibit B: The fact that the cast was out there promoting the teaser trailer when it launched at the beginning of February at the Alabama Space Center, and the hype surrounding the teaser trailer made it debut to over 200 million views globally in its first 24 hours that made it the 10th biggest trailer launch ever, let alone one that made it into the Top 10 all-time trailer launches.

Exhibit C: The special Fantastic 4-themed IMAX countdown that played before Cap 4 and Thunderbolts* that made people say “oh Marvel Studios is actually really serious about the Fantastic 4.”

Exhibit D: Special limited edition trading cards for The Fantastic 4 being given away at 4DX Regal screenings of Thunderbolts*, a way of marketing no one’s ever done for a movie in America, only in Japan. By the way, I got the same cards off of eBay for $154 ($30.80 per card).

And I don’t have to remind you about how the official account does their weekly tweet every Sunday night at 7PM ET/4PM PT about Reed Richards saying that they “make a point to do family dinner every week, Sunday at 7 on the dot,” with occasional unexpected change ups when it came to the scene of Johnny telling Sue and Reed they were late for dinner and just recently on Mother’s Day when they pulled out the scene of Johnny telling Sue she’ll be the best mom in the world.

Plus, don’t forget that this is the last film before the next Avengers movie comes out, which might give it a boost, along with the positive reception of Thunderbolts*, if we see Robert Downey Jr’s Doom in the very last end credits scene of the movie.

So, for those reasons alone, I’ll take my chances, flaunt my pride, and believe against all odds that Fantastic 4 WILL make a billion dollars.


Sorry, but this is just not true in the case of Pedro Pascal with him starring in Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, and the big one in The Mandalorian. Even Joseph Quinn is well-known from Stranger Things. And don’t get me started on Ebon Moss-Bachrach from The Bear. Now, you could probably make a case for Vanessa Kirby being unknown but even people might know her and go “hey isn’t that the White Widow from the last two Mission: Impossible movies” when they see her.

Also, you seem to be ignoring my comment sayin’ RDJ Doom’s in the end credits scene.

Also, your mistrust that people won’t show up for it and thinking it’s like The Muppets are unjustified.

This. ^

I’m not gonna quit on my belief that The Fantastic Four will make a billion.

Why?

Because it’s the 1 film out of the 3 MCU films that Disney and Marvel Studios seem to be promoting like it’s an actual event film by way of the following reasons:

Exhibit A: Sharing the film’s theme from Michael Giacchino not only once during D23 but a second time as a surprise epilogue to the Marvel Studios Infinity Saga concert experience in Los Angeles during the second to last weekend of August.
Huh? Giacchino’s done a ton of scores, for good movies as well as bad. I’m excited for it - but the sound of that theme and the look of this film is evocative of Tomorrowland (also scored by Giacchino).
Exhibit B: The fact that the cast was out there promoting the teaser trailer when it launched at the beginning of February at the Alabama Space Center, and the hype surrounding the teaser trailer made it debut to over 200 million views globally in its first 24 hours that made it the 10th biggest trailer launch ever, let alone one that made it into the Top 10 all-time trailer launches.
There’s not been a great correlation between trailer views and box office success.
Exhibit C: The special Fantastic 4-themed IMAX countdown that played before Cap 4 and Thunderbolts* that made people say “oh Marvel Studios is actually really serious about the Fantastic 4.”
Kinda niche data point.
Exhibit D: Special limited edition trading cards for The Fantastic 4 being given away at 4DX Regal screenings of Thunderbolts*, a way of marketing no one’s ever done for a movie in America, only in Japan. By the way, I got the same cards off of eBay for $154 ($30.80 per card).

Extremely niche data point.
And I don’t have to remind you about how the official account does their weekly tweet every Sunday night at 7PM ET/4PM PT about Reed Richards saying that they “make a point to do family dinner every week, Sunday at 7 on the dot,” with occasional unexpected change ups when it came to the scene of Johnny telling Sue and Reed they were late for dinner and just recently on Mother’s Day when they pulled out the scene of Johnny telling Sue she’ll be the best mom in the world.

Plus, don’t forget that this is the last film before the next Avengers movie comes out, which might give it a boost, along with the positive reception of Thunderbolts*, if we see Robert Downey Jr’s Doom in the very last end credits scene of the movie.
Possibly. It’s also the next MCU film after Captain America and Thunderbolts, which may break even.
So, for those reasons alone, I’ll take my chances, flaunt my pride, and believe against all odds that Fantastic 4 WILL make a billion dollars.


Sorry, but this is just not true in the case of Pedro Pascal with him starring in Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, and the big one in The Mandalorian.

I like Pascal. But he’s starred in a number of genre films that have also bombed over the last few years. He’s not a sure box office thing.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Sorry, but this is just not true in the case of Pedro Pascal with him starring in Game of Thrones, The Last of Us, and the big one in The Mandalorian. Even Joseph Quinn is well-known from Stranger Things. And don’t get me started on Ebon Moss-Bachrach from The Bear. Now, you could probably make a case for Vanessa Kirby being unknown but even people might know her and go “hey isn’t that the White Widow from the last two Mission: Impossible movies” when they see her.

Also, you seem to be ignoring my comment sayin’ RDJ Doom’s in the end credits scene.

Also, your mistrust that people won’t show up for it and thinking it’s like The Muppets are unjustified.

I totally forgot about pascal…
Yes he is a draw…so that would help…

The rest of all that data mining stuff you must spend nights doing?…we’ll see.

You’re on record and let’s see if it plays?
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I am not attributing anything to Disney in the replies to these posts. Drill back, its just a math example.

As for Disney, drill back, I say Disney will probably take the crown for box office gross in 2025.

The math at the end of 2025 will tell us if if cost them to get that crown, or they take the crown and make some profit at the box office too.
And I'm trying to tell you, as others have like @brideck, that if they are the box office winner for 2025 its almost impossible for them to have not turned a profit. They both go hand-in-hand.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
And I'm trying to tell you, as others have like @brideck, that if they are the box office winner for 2025 its almost impossible for them to have not turned a profit. They both go hand-in-hand.
Well they will likely turn a profit…

Isn’t there an avatar this year?

But it’s ROI they most care about. And by “most”…I mean 100% of the management of Disney.

It’s always about ancillaries…merch, licensing, sequels and spins…

Always. This is like the only thread I’ve ever seen where it’s ignored daily 🤷🏻

So a profit is a scale. Sure…better +$1 than -$1…of course

But it takes 5+ years to develop each of these…usually…especially computer aided boom whiz bang…

So why do it for break even?
And if they’re bad…they can make money and STILL lose potential profits down the road. (I’ll not get started on the obvious example there)

We’re never gonna agree…but there’s a limit to any point in Cherry picking around the elephants in the room too.

Here’s a good one: “thunderbolts is so well reviewed…great for marvel”

But the Seats are largely empty. Are we shooting for cult classic here?

Think Burbank is high fiving that?
 

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