Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Fantastic four has always had a lot in common with the muppets.

I’m interested to see how this one breaks?

I don't know if I'd use Muppets as the comparison. But I agree it'll be interesting to see what its box office will be.

 

[Agent H]

Ah yes, your conspiracy theory of cooked books. If you have any proof please file an SEC claim.

And no the actuals from 2023 were actually a lot lower than the $1.2B or whatever TP and others claimed here.

No no. Don’t you see it? they had to have lied because they were absolutely undeniably bad movies! How do you not see it?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Except its not easily calculated which has been discussed for a long time in this thread.

Debatable. The posted budget times 2.5 is the consensus here. The real stinkers don't even make that.

Yes, I know, we do not know the true budgets or the true costs of marketing.

 

[Disney Irish]

Debatable. The posted budget times 2.5 is the consensus here. The real stinkers don't even make that.

Yes, I know, we do not know the true budgets or the true costs of marketing.

It’s a rule of thumb, it’s meant to give averages not hard facts. Yes we like to use it because it gives a partial picture of where things are, but it’s just that, not complete. Too many forget or just plain ignore all other aspects of how a movie makes money. And so because of that it’s always going to be an inaccurate representation of the money Disney actually makes with their movies. Which is why this idea that there is some corporate shell game going on with the financials is just plain wrong and quite frankly insulting to those that actually follow the financials. It’s a false narrative that can’t be proven and those that push it know it.

And quite honestly unless you have some narrative you’re trying to push, it really doesn’t matter all that much how much a movie makes during theatrical, which again is the point.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It’s a rule of thumb, it’s meant to give averages not hard facts. Yes we like to use it because it gives a partial picture of where things are, but it’s just that, not complete. Too many forget or just plain ignore all other aspects of how a movie makes money.

Again, the thread was about how Disney will take the crown for the box office gross in 2025 and that is why the discussion was focused on box office.

They probably will. The question is how much will it cost them for that crown.

 

[brideck]

Again, the thread was about how Disney will take the crown for the box office gross in 2025 and that is why the discussion was focused on box office.

They probably will. The question is how much will it cost them for that crown.

I'm really confused by the line of, er, reasoning(?) that has taken over the last couple pages of the thread. Are there really people who think that Disney will be the #1 grosser in 2025, but somehow not make a profit on their movie slate because... goodness.

I was just showing data the other week about how their hits are bigger than their misses (even their bombs) by an order of magnitude. It really should just take one movie popping off to put the whole year in the black, even with Snow White on the books.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm really confused by the line of, er, reasoning(?) that has taken over the last couple pages of the thread. Are there really people who think that Disney will be the #1 grosser in 2025, but somehow not make a profit on their movie slate because... goodness.

I was just showing data the other week about how their hits are bigger than their misses (even their bombs) by an order of magnitude. It really should just take one movie popping off to put the whole year in the black, even with Snow White on the books.

You know how it is, grievances gotta continue. So anything that can be twisted will be twisted in order to show Iger is failing. Because that is what this is all about.

 

[TP2000]

Final box office is in for this past Mother's Day weekend. The re-release of Rachel Zegler's Snow White in 1,330 theaters this weekend netted Burbank a grand total of $467,113. Yay?

And with that, I think it's time to put Miss White to sleep permanently and wrap this embarrassing saga up, never to be repeated again. Broadway, you've got a new actress to work with for the next 40 years, from Hollywood with love!

Snow White: Production $270, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $272 Million Loss

Disney’s Snow White (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Disney’s Snow White (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Again, the thread was about how Disney will take the crown for the box office gross in 2025 and that is why the discussion was focused on box office.

They probably will. The question is how much will it cost them for that crown.

Honestly I think you guys have really lost the point you all were trying to make.

All your jokes aside, if Disney is the top box office earner for the year they will make profit.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Are there really people who think that Disney will be the #1 grosser in 2025, but somehow not make a profit on their movie slate

Yes. Because math.

Lets say a movie had a budget of 180M. Folks on these boards say (180 * 2.5 = 450) it takes 450M to beak even.

Lets say a movie studio releases 5 of these movies, each losing money that make 425M

That is over 2.1 billion gross at the box office, yet none of the movies are profitable.

 

[brideck]

Yes. Because math.

Lets say a movie had a budget of 180M. Folks on these boards say (180 * 2.5 = 450) it takes 450M to beak even.

Lets say a movie studio releases 5 of these movies, each losing money that make 425M

That is over 2.1 billion gross at the box office, yet none of the movies are profitable.

2.5x is a conservative guideline. The actual breakeven point is usually a touch lower than that. Captain America and (soon-to-be) Thunderbolts essentially fall into the wash category, not the loss column. And it's ridiculous to think that those movies will be the high water mark for the year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't need to post a prediction. Do I think it'll do well, yes. But by how much, I don't know nor will post a specific amount. And I haven't for a long time now.

Then you’re hedging…so don’t bother lecturing anyone…anything…about your interpretations of FF and/or MCU

And it’s not a gotcha…it’s an opinion…take your shot. You might be right, wrong, over or under. I’m wrong about things every single day…but it’s not always here.

I’m intentionally trying to ignore the forthcoming “thunderbolts actually did well…” nonsense. Bull. Not only is covered in red ink…it’s not what Disney wants from its tentpoles. The truth should have its day (and every day). Lather rinse on this…I’m sure

But the “money doesn’t matter for the movies”…immediately followed by claiming “victory” for your favorite company if they do make a buck…is falling short of the green ️

Easy there. We don't stomp down any opinions here.

Normally I don’t…I’ve been engaging on forums such as this for years with anyone from teens to the most delusional, dust huffing faux “adults” out there…

It’s a good time killer…you meet some nice people along the way…engagement helps the brain (well…most of the time )

But the “hey, mom, I made myself an “insider” with a pod/vlogg (so please don’t kick me out of the basement)” trend needs to be called out for what it is…

The beatings will continue until common sense returns.

 

[Agent H]

Then you’re hedging…so don’t bother lecturing anyone…anything…about your interpretations of FF and/or MCU

And it’s not a gotcha…it’s an opinion…take your shot. You might be right, wrong, over or under. I’m wrong about things every single day…but it’s not always here.

I’m intentionally trying to ignore the forthcoming “thunderbolts actually did well…” nonsense. Bull. Not only is covered in red ink…it’s not what Disney wants from its tentpoles. The truth should have its day (and every day). Lather rinse on this…I’m sure

But the “money doesn’t matter for the movies”…immediately followed by claiming “victory” for your favorite company if they do make a buck…is falling short of the green.

I don’t think it’s supposed to be a tentpole release. For those look at fantastic 4 stitch and Zootopia

 

[Disstevefan1]

2.5x is a conservative guideline. The actual breakeven point is usually a touch lower than that.

Depending on who you talk to, the 2.5 is an under estimate.

And as we all know, we really don't what the true costs are because a studio can state a movie budget of 180M but then go over budget and also spend more than expected on marketing.

The point is, the gross earnings is a nice number to look at but we do not know the real story.

 

[Agent H]

Normally I don’t…I’ve been engaging on forums such as this for years with anyone from teens to the most delusional, dust huffing faux “adults” out there…

It’s a good time killer…you meet some nice people along the way…engagement helps the brain (well…most of the time )

But the “hey, mom, I made myself an “insider” with a pod/vlogg (so please don’t kick me out of the basement)” trend needs to be called out for what it is…

The beatings will continue until common sense returns.

These 4 sentences explain a lot.

 

[brideck]

I’m intentionally trying to ignore the forthcoming “thunderbolts actually did well…” nonsense. Bull. Not only is covered in red ink…it’s not what Disney wants from its tentpoles. The truth should have its day (and every day). Lather rinse on this…I’m sure

You want a prediction? Thunderbolts* should look pretty similar to Cap 4 for its WW total (~$200m/$420m) when all is said and done. This'll put it firmly in the wash category -- far from covered in red ink.

The beatings will continue until common sense returns.

You need to figure out how to be understood first before you can be the vanguard of "common sense" that you seek to be.

 

[brideck]

Depending on who you talk to, the 2.5 is an under estimate.

It's really not, at least not for Disney's movies/practices. See all of the work that Brian Lo has done throughout this thread to backprove numbers and compare them to Deadline's end of year tale of the tape and/or Disney's reported quarterly/annual numbers.

 

[Disstevefan1]

(so please don’t kick me out of the basement)

I had a home with a basement. My current home has no basement. I miss my basement.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes. Because math.

Lets say a movie had a budget of 180M. Folks on these boards say (180 * 2.5 = 450) it takes 450M to beak even.

Lets say a movie studio releases 5 of these movies, each losing money that make 425M

That is over 2.1 billion gross at the box office, yet none of the movies are profitable.

Except in such a scenario Disney wouldn't be top earner at the box office. Because that assumes that no other studio is able to string together any other movies that do better than $400M, which is almost impossible. Because if that scenario ever comes to pass we have bigger problems than Disney not making profit, we have the actual downfall of theatrical. And that day may comes soon enough, but it won't be in 2025.

Plus the more likely scenario is that 2025 is carried by 2 or 3 movies for Disney - Avatar, Stitch, and possibly Zootopia 2. All the rest that make profit are just gravy at that point.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

The only MCU films post Endgame that made over $1 billion are the Spider-Man films and Deadpool vs. Wolverine. It’s a new film series within the franchise. $700-$800M would be a great success.

And you were confident you saw (see?) a return to hand drawn animation. So maybe sit this one out?

Shut up.

I’ll speak my mind if I want to and I don’t need some hot-headed bullies telling me what I’m allowed to say, speak, or think.

Also, while the Fantastic 4 is new to the MCU, it’s not new to mass audiences who have wanted and waited to see Marvel Studios do them right when Fox butchered them three times (Roger Corman, Tim Story, and Josh Trank).

So, I’ll take my chances and ignore anyone who doubts this movie can make a billion just because they’re worthless, useless, faithless, and jaded