Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Other tickets are still dated though, correct? As in they're valid from a certain start date only. While they don't require day to day reservations Disney would still have a solid idea on numbers.
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WDW during a Recession / Economic Downturn
- Thread starter Tha Realest
- Start date
Other tickets are still dated though, correct? As in they're valid from a certain start date only. While they don't require day to day reservations Disney would still have a solid idea on numbers.
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
Right. And they could sell out a day from ticket sales if they wished.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Aside from economics don't underestimate the impact of fear. We really can't talk about it here, but there are some risks people will simply not expose their families too. While still extremely small visa, issues are becoming more prominent in the news, even for people with Canadian, German and French citizenship. A UK singer canceled their Coachella appearance and North American Tour because of visa issues.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
You need to put that popcorn in the fridge now so it keeps for the next round
Back on topic. I've been writing down my memories of Disney during the major recessions and downturns of this century, both as a Cast Member and later as a guest (2001/2002, 2008-2009, 2020). I did some research to fill in the gaps and started turning it all into an essay.
Hopefully I'll be able to publish it soon and share it here!
I didn’t write about Disney during the 1987 recession... because I was five at the time and only have a few vague memories of our trip that year. But from what I found, attendance actually went up. To be fair, that was during the Eisner/Wells golden era, and the parks were less developed back then than they are today, so they weren’t as hard to fill.
Hopefully I'll be able to publish it soon and share it here!
I didn’t write about Disney during the 1987 recession... because I was five at the time and only have a few vague memories of our trip that year. But from what I found, attendance actually went up. To be fair, that was during the Eisner/Wells golden era, and the parks were less developed back then than they are today, so they weren’t as hard to fill.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Fascinating! There was also the recession of 2022, which fit the classic economical definition of a "recession" as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. I don't think WDW or DLR even noticed that one though. I sure didn't.
What '87 recession? Are you conflating that with the big stock market crash in October, 87 that recovered quickly and had no real impact? There wasn't a recession, officially or otherwise in 1987.
US GDP growth for Fiscal Year 1987 was up 3.5%, the same growth rate as 1986. GDP growth increased to 4.2% in 1988.
By quarter, GDP growth looked like this in 1987:
Q1 - +0.7%
Q2 - +1.1%
Q3 - +0.9%
Q4 - +1.7%
I think that's because you are off on the year, as 1987 was in the middle of healthy GDP growth years.
Are you maybe thinking of the 1982 recession after Paul Volcker raised interest rates to finally slay the inflation dragon?
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.
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BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Classic maneuver, remain endlessly obtuse.
I think it’s pretty ok to say there’s a wider decision to boycott the US. Which has taken off widely in Canada and is surely now making its way over to Europe now. Just factually, no need to debate the why.
We’re going to see downstream effects of that for at least a few quarters, until the vibes change.
I think it’s pretty ok to say there’s a wider decision to boycott the US. Which has taken off widely in Canada and is surely now making its way over to Europe now. Just factually, no need to debate the why.
We’re going to see downstream effects of that for at least a few quarters, until the vibes change.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
And we know how Disney freaks out every time their quarterly expectations are even slightly off.
A more substantial decrease in occupancy/attendance would probably send them scrambling to make up the difference.
Disney isn’t the only player trying to impress and answer to Wall Street during quarterly public earnings call. All companies are always looking to beat the Streets expectation numbers.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I’m still more eager to see how Universal reacts, because we know exactly the Disney playbook!
Fascinating! There was also the recession of 2022, which fit the classic economical definition of a "recession" as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. I don't think WDW or DLR even noticed that one though. I sure didn't.
What '87 recession? Are you conflating that with the big stock market crash in October, 87 that recovered quickly and had no real impact? There wasn't a recession, officially or otherwise in 1987.
US GDP growth for Fiscal Year 1987 was up 3.5%, the same growth rate as 1986. GDP growth increased to 4.2% in 1988.
By quarter, GDP growth looked like this in 1987:
Q1 - +0.7%
Q2 - +1.1%
Q3 - +0.9%
Q4 - +1.7%
I think that's because you are off on the year, as 1987 was in the middle of healthy GDP growth years.
Are you maybe thinking of the 1982 recession after Paul Volcker raised interest rates to finally slay the inflation dragon?
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.www.bea.gov
Sorry, yes. That's what I mean.
1982 was also a good year for Disney. Epcot opened, they dropped individual ride tickets, and over 12 million visitors came to WDW.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
All tickets are dated and basically “day +3”…not hard math for them to accurate guess where everyone is gonna be with a high level of certainty
At currently trajectory…”selling out” will become as extinct as the dodo
Oh they'll still go...in fewer numbers.
If you want to argue that current trade issues may affect guest behavior or expansion plans, fine, but how is that any different than what has been (and continues to go on) with inflation, supply chain issues, global instability, etc. etc. etc.?
None of that has anything to do with the reputation Disney has earned since Chapek came in decided to make Guests last on the pecking order.
The last on pecking order of Chapek was cast. He had plans on a massive layoff of CMs but Iger stopped him. Iger plan of furloughing instead of perm layoffs went off instead.
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
A 10% decrease in attendance is insignificant. Of course.
Now compare it to the Domestic decline of 80% of your customer base.
Both are bad, but one is much worse.
Raidermatt
Active Member
Typically Disney has two responses when macroeconomic factors start cutting into their business.
1. Cost cutting. Reduced hours, entertainment, etc.
2. More local discounts and programs like free dining (though I am not sure they want to open Pandora's Box again)
The pandemic is not a great model as that entire situation was unique in many ways, and by 2022 there was a large amount of pent-up demand for all travel.
After these cycles of cutting, they tend to not quite return everything taken away. Plus they just went through a massive period of cutting due to philosophy. While some of that was reversed, much was not.
Of course it remains to be seen what is going to happen in the coming months. There are plenty of "soft" indicators that trouble is brewing. Consumer sentiment, credit utilization and payment patterns, etc. The "hard" indicators have remained strong. Unemployment, job creation, etc. The crack in GDP was the first real sign of trouble, but at least part of that was due to short term reactions to the on-off-on-off again tariffs.
Bottom line is that so far, things are ok. But of course they are always ok, until they are not ok.
1. Cost cutting. Reduced hours, entertainment, etc.
2. More local discounts and programs like free dining (though I am not sure they want to open Pandora's Box again)
The pandemic is not a great model as that entire situation was unique in many ways, and by 2022 there was a large amount of pent-up demand for all travel.
After these cycles of cutting, they tend to not quite return everything taken away. Plus they just went through a massive period of cutting due to philosophy. While some of that was reversed, much was not.
Of course it remains to be seen what is going to happen in the coming months. There are plenty of "soft" indicators that trouble is brewing. Consumer sentiment, credit utilization and payment patterns, etc. The "hard" indicators have remained strong. Unemployment, job creation, etc. The crack in GDP was the first real sign of trouble, but at least part of that was due to short term reactions to the on-off-on-off again tariffs.
Bottom line is that so far, things are ok. But of course they are always ok, until they are not ok.
Eric Graham
Well-Known Member
in my opinion...things in the economy were going swimmingly well before the institution of tariffs...after such time...the economy has tanked...companies are having very difficult times with having inventory on hand because of how expensive product is....people have less money in their pockets, interest rates have still remained high because of such uncertainty...etc etc etc because things are getting more expensive...but that's just my opinion....not a business major or anything, just relied on the internet for my commentary 