Phroobar
Well-Known Member
They are still working out a deal with the virus scanning companies to not flag it.
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
How can an opinion be wrong?
Mostly everyone is free to express their opinion here. Some, not so much
Opinions are not wrong
Opinions conveyed as “personal truth” usually are
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
Depends on what you’re comparing it too.
Compared to the Marvels $45 million opening weekend it’s solid, compared to other post Covid MCU flicks (that aren’t sequels) it’s about average, compared to the Avengers peak when they consistently had $250 million (or more) opening weekends it’s pretty bad.
I think it’s a good example of how expectations for the MCU overall have become far more realistic, there was a time you just expected a MCU film to be a billion dollar + blockbuster, now if one makes $500 million and makes a profit it’s considered a win.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Considering the earning lifespan of most movies is a month…if you’re lucky…then this is not good
But we will see. If the buzz is good they can capitalize on little competition for now
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Problem is too many have expectations still at pre-pandemic levels. I’ve long argued that the pandemic should have reset expectations back to realistic level, and it has for every other studio that doesn’t have a mouse mascot (even with the same budgets). One wonders why expectations can’t be reset to realistic levels for Disney.
So these new… proposed tariffs on movies? Is Hollywood itself exempt, can they still film in Canada, the UK, etc.?
Are foreign films going to suddenly have crazy ticket prices?
What’s the madhatter doing?
Are foreign films going to suddenly have crazy ticket prices?
What’s the madhatter doing?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I missed the official announcement that box office totals were automatically reduced by half from the plague 5 years ago?
Do you have the clip of Iger at Sun valley officially decreeing it?
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
With a $180 million production budget, it's only a little less than the typical Disney produced Marvel movie
It was expected to open around $80 million, and the current projection is $76 million
That's not bad. Not great either. It's fine and should play well until competition comes on Memorial Day weekend.
It shouldn't have a massive 2nd weekend drop off either.
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
It beat projections.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Which ones?
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Deadline had it between $73-$77 million going into the weekend.
The Hollywood Reporter was tracking anywhere between $63-$77 million, averaging to $70 million back on April 10
Box Office Pro had a higher estimate at $80-$90 million on Wednesday
Weekend Preview: THUNDERBOLTS* Tracking to $80M Opening Weekend
The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 2 – 4, 2025 Week 18 | May 2 – 4, 2025 1. Thunderbolts*Marvel Studios | NEWWeekend Range: $80M – $90MShowtime Marketshare: 33% Pros Cons 2. SinnersWarner Bros. | Week 3Weekend Range: $16M – $22MShowtime...
www.boxofficepro.com
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
So…basically…yeah…right…
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
It’s right in the projection range…not above themYou really hate when you are proven wrong.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Oh…this is the “what I do wrong all the time” projection part of the show?It’s ok to be wrong. It happens. Now Stay Calm and Keep on Emoji-ing!!
Pro tip: Don’t say “I don’t know” or you’ll get slimed
Disney Irish
Premium Member
The industry reset expectations when theaters opened back up that not every movie had to be a $1B movie or its considered a failure. Unfortunately for many, including yourself, those expectations haven't been reset when it comes to the Mouse. You still expect that every Disney movie (and no internally they aren't expecting it) has to break $1B records or its a failure.
Even this $100M opening weekend that you were touting as the bar for Thunderbolts wasn't realistic or what the industry was expecting either. If you read the headlines its actually not a bad opening weekend, its actually considered a success by post-pandemic standards. Again I question why when a non-Disney movie opens in the same range is it considered a success by many here, but when a Disney movie does its considered a failure? Seems like those expectations for the Mouse are set higher for reasons, I guess.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
To be fair Disney was pretty late to change expectations also, they’ve made a bunch of movies over the last few years that had ridiculous budgets. If a studio continues to spend $250-350 million making a movie you have to assume they were expecting it to make at least $600-900 million also.
I think a huge part of the reason most of us are optimistic for Thunderbolts is it had a $180 million budget, much easier to foresee a profit when break even is roughly $450 million compared to their last movie (Snow White) that had a $270 million budget and needed roughly $675 million just to break even, or worse the last Indiana Jones movie that had a break even point around $750 million.
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
But it’s not correct.
Out of curiosity…look at the worldwide box office charts from 2022-present. Actually it holds for 21 too…but there were still alot of restrictions in place.
8 billion dollar movies in 3 years? And another half a dozen with $900 +?
In fact…look at the grosses of the top 10 each year…really pretty close to what they would have gotten in 2018. Maybe a 20% hit…
DM4 and Minions getting $900 Represents an “industry shift”? More like a minor course correction.
The takeaway is the same: if it’s good…it will make money. And even bad movies like Jurassics still do what they do.
We are here talking about underachieving tentpole franchises…but continue to play this stupid game where we can’t agree on the reality of it. And the wheel continues to spin
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Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
I still think it’s bizarre that we even know, let alone care about, the budget of a movie.
I feel like that’s above my pay grade. It has no effect on whether or not I want to see a film - which is my only job.
As for changing expectations, I think we also know most of those bigger budget ones were already in production with the old numbers.
I can also tell you from much smaller (but big to me) business experience: it can be hard to tell right away if a drop is a blip vs. a trend, and whether reacting would be overreacting. Then once you make the decision, it takes time to steer the ship.
My business fell off a small cliff nearly two years ago after a big Covid bump. Two competitors in business twice as long as I closed. From August to December, I kept thinking it wasn’t that bad. I kept spending on inventory at the same levels.
In retrospect, I should have pulled back sooner. At the time, who could be sure?
I feel they were going through this at a scale I may not even comprehend.
P.S. cutting back at key times worked, and we’re in great shape, much like Disney’s 2024.