Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
Good is relative, I’m also thinking it does closer to $80M or just over. Drops will be more interesting as time goes on, but scores indicate a potential $500M+ final.

Also if you read you’d notice that $103M for TLM was not the correct number, it was $14.5M. TP over inflated all the numbers by over $500M when compared to the actuals. So no not really.

$500 million looks likely, not great but not horrible either.

This is another apples to oranges comparison, one is looking at box office only, the other is looking at box office, digital, streaming, etc.

While I think Thunderbolts is a pretty good movie, it's poor box office is the film paying for the sins of so many bad/mediocre Marvel movies that have been released within the past few years

Unfortunately I think this is true, the Marvel name, along with Disney and Star Wars, used to be enough to get butts in seats, now people are skeptical when they see those names rather than optimistic. Disney has gotten themselves into a pickle where their names are now seen by many as a negative (wait and see approach) rather than a positive (give them the benefit of doubt and simply go based on studio reputation).


I don’t think theaters are going anywhere but I do think they need to change to meet current demand. The days of 28 theater multiplexes with 200 seat theaters are likely gone to be replaced with 10 theater multiplexes with 100 seat lazyboy theaters.

I think quality is more important than quantity now.
 
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Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
I don’t think theaters are going anywhere but I do think they need to change to meet current demand. The days of 28 theater multiplexes with 200 seat theaters are likely gone to be replaced with 10 theater multiplexes with 100 seat lazyboy theaters.

I think quality is more important than quantity now.

There's also a need and demand for large format/specialty screen theaters (IMAX, 4DX etc)

It's a problem when movies intended for exhibition in them have to be pulled a week later for the next title
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
While I think Thunderbolts is a pretty good movie, it's poor box office is the film paying for the sins of so many bad/mediocre Marvel movies that have been released within the past few years — Thor Love and Thunder, Ant-man and the Wasp: Quantumania, The Marvels and most recently Captain America: Brave New World.

The Marvel brand has been significantly damaged and I think it will take several good/great films coming out in a row to restore it.

Fantastic Four: The First Steps needs to be good/great. Anything below an 80% on Rotten Tomatoes would be extremely concerning for the MCU going forward.

The problem for Marvel is that Fantastic 4 is the only movie left between now and the next Avengers.

I still think the next Spider-Man will do well, just like Deadpool 3 and GotG 3 did. People want to see the continuation of their favorite characters, they just won't show up for everything Marvel like they used to.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
$500 million looks likely, not great but not horrible either.

$500 million worldwide is entirely probable and based on @BrianLo 's 2.5 rule of thumb would be enough to justify it's $180 million production cost.

But Disney makes these MCU franchise titles with the hope they make $750 million -$1 billion + a piece.

And that just doesn't happen with all of them.

Spider-Man: No Way Home and all 3 MCU movies in 2022 did, but only 2 of the last 6 MCU movies have.
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
The problem for Marvel is that Fantastic 4 is the only movie left between now and the next Avengers.

I still think the next Spider-Man will do well, just like Deadpool 3 and GotG 3 did. People want to see the continuation of their favorite characters, they just won't show up for everything Marvel like they used to.

I think after Doomsday/Secret Wars, the main focus of the MCU will be on X-men, the Fantastic Four and Spider-man. I count Deadpool as being in the X-men corner of the MCU.

So the question remains...what happens to all the other characters that were focused on in Phases 4 and 5?

I think the Wanda can continue to be a major presence in the MCU, especially since at various points in the comics she was Magneto's daughter. This was retconned, but I think the MCU could use this angle to tie her into the X-men side of the MCU. She might even be able to get her own movie. Doctor Strange probably could also get a third movie to round out his trilogy.

I think Thor could have more sequels if they go for a different tone than Love and Thunder and try to strike a better balance between seriousness and humor.

Shang-Chi should also get a sequel. While the first film only made $432 million worldwide, it was well liked and its relatively box office was due to the pandemic. I think a sequel has potential to break out and make much more money. Maybe they can pair Shang-Chi with other characters tied to the mystical side of Marvel (like Doctor Strange).

I think the Black Panther franchise can have future sequels, but they need to recast T'challa as I don't think Shuri or T'challa's son will have quite the same appeal. After Doomsday/Secret Wars they can bring in a variant of him.

I personally loved Eternals, but I know most don't so I don't think Marvel can give them a sequel. It would be too financially risky. Unfortunately, the movie ended on a gigantic cliffhanger with half of the Eternals kidnapped by the Celestial Arishem (who threatened to return to earth for Judgement) and the other half running into Starfox, the brother of Thanos, who said he knows where to find the kidnapped Eternals. I think there is a way to tie up the loose ends brought on by the cliffhanger of Eternals without necessarily giving them a sequel. I think they could have "cosmic Avengers" type team up movie where Thor, the Fantastic Four, the remaining Guardians of the Galaxy, and Thena, Makkari and Starfox join forces to stop the Celestials from destroying earth. It would be less of an "Eternals 2" and move of an "Avengers Age of Ultron" scale crossover movie. Afterward, I think the Eternals as a group should disband. Maybe one of them could join the new Guardians of the Galaxy and one or two of them could join the Avengers, but I really don't see the point of them existing as a team anymore going forward.

Sam Wilson's Captain America and Brie Larson's Captain Marvel are not popular enough to get any more solo movies going forward. I don't think they should be written out of the MCU, but I think they should only be present in Avengers movies, as supporting characters.

I think the Young Avengers (who have been popping up throughout phases 4 and 5) should be given a TV series, not a movie. There is potential in these characters, but they are not popular enough to sustain a $250 million movie. I also think since several of the characters were introduced on TV (Kate Bishop, Kamala Khan, Billy Maximoff/Kaplan) TV is the natural way to continue their stories.
I think Moon Knight and DareDevil can live on as TV characters, but don't see them successfully transitioning to the big screen. Echo and Secret Invasion should just be quietly forgotten about.

She Hulk was an extremely divisive show and a nightmare in terms of online culture war discourse, although its viewership was solid. Still, I think Tatiana Maslany was well cast and the character still has potential. But the writing of the first season was all over the map. If the show were to ever get a second season, I think they would need to completely overhaul the creative/writing team.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
If we believe the 180M budget of Thunderbolts* ( is it my imagination or many movie budgets of Disney movies is stated at 180M?)

Anyway if we believe they made the movie for 180M and since we are forced ;) to use the 2.5 multiplier, then the movie needs 450M to break even at the box office.

I think this will happen and Thunderbolts* should even make some money.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
It’s so dumb it honestly makes me wonder if I’m wrong for generally agreeing with the negative consensus on the theme park side of this site.

Come to the light side, where you can have fun stress-free when you visit a Disney park!

Not coincidentally, me and my fam will be pulling into French Quarter tomorrow for a 4-day visit. Looking forward to it.
 

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
Thunderbolts is losing IMAX screens back to Sinners in two weeks, and then for good to Mission: Impossible. That’s going to eat into its legs. They also have to shift marketing resources over to Stitch.
 

TalkingHead

Well-Known Member
Also expect Fantastic Four to underperform, especially overseas where 1960s US nostalgia isn’t a compelling selling point. That’ll make three MCU films in a year that didn’t break through to general audiences. Next CEO needs to plan accordingly.
 

TalkingHead

Well-Known Member
Thunderbolts is losing IMAX screens back to Sinners in two weeks, and then for good to Mission: Impossible. That’s going to eat into its legs. They also have to shift marketing resources over to Stitch.
Yep, Captain America 4 had like two months all to itself with hardly any competition and we saw how it did.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Also expect Fantastic Four to underperform, especially overseas where 1960s US nostalgia isn’t a compelling selling point. That’ll make three MCU films in a year that didn’t break through to general audiences. Next CEO needs to plan accordingly.

I don't think the next CEO is going to change anything regarding Marvel and Disney's tentpole strategy.

Maybe some characters or IP don't get sequels, but that's it.

I'm also skeptical of Disney pulling back on live-action remakes if Stitch is expected to do as well as it does.
 

Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
2014: Guardians of the Galaxy - 160.7 million global opening weekend
“Wow! What an amazing opening! The MCU is invincible! This will launch a trilogy, theme park attractions, and make several characters iconic fixtures of global pop culture!”

*inflation
*devastating pandemic and technological and economic changes that destroy theatrical exhibition - it never fully recovers
*ruling party labels Disney an Enemy of the People

2025: Thunderbolts* - 162.1 million global opening weekend
“What a bomb! The MCU is dead! No one likes it anymore! It’s marginal to pop culture, just like the other most successful media franchise in history!”
 

TalkingHead

Well-Known Member
I don't think the next CEO is going to change anything regarding Marvel and Disney's tentpole strategy.

Maybe some characters or IP don't get sequels, but that's it.

I'm also skeptical of Disney pulling back on live-action remakes if Stitch is expected to do as well as it does.
Disagree. Current strategy is Iger’s baby and shows diminishing returns. Too late for him to course correct even if he were inclined.

Next CEO is going to inherit a Disney with declining BO and will have to make some decisions about how to respond.
 

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