Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Stripes]

I know people are going to claim that they would be in full support of her, but if she made those same comments accept in the opposite direction about team blue, I would have loved to see how supportive this forum was of her.

We will never know, but I for one would be equally disgusted. We should not wish ill will or hate on people . We can disagree. Heck get angry. But talking the way she did is not good for anyone.

I am not reading any support for Zegler's comments. I think the overwhelming majority of people in this country love their neighbors. We are all exhausted by the "negative discourse" that Zegler promulgated, and her comments were offensive to most Americans regardless of political persuasion.

I don't believe in hating anybody, including Zegler. She's a young, talented actress with a spotlight on her every move. Let me tell you, I certainly wouldn't get through that kind of public scrutiny unscathed either, especially at her age.

Regardless, there's a certain hateful and unwarranted vitriol surrounding Zegler on social media which is what I find uncomfortable about the present moment. I just want peace and love for everybody. And I believe the film should succeed or fail based on the merits of the picture. To encourage otherwise would be unfair to the thousands of people that have poured their heart into the film.

 

[TalkingHead]

Just checked the IMAX screenings on Thursday in a small city and there were a total of 4 seats sold for three shows. Disney Springs AMC is selling well but there’s nothing unusual about that, other than the fact that even a lot of those Dolby shows still have seats available.

AMC stock is flatlining. How long before theaters have to start thinking about drastic changes in operations?

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Needs an opening of $65 million for potential 600 million.

• With a 3.2x multiplier: Domestic = $65 million × 3.2 = $208 million.
• International at 1.9x domestic (slightly above average): $208 million × 1.9 ≈ $395 million.
• Total = $208 million + $395 million ≈ $603 million, just above $600 million.


Currently for Snow White:
• Projected Opening Weekend: $48M–$58M (midpoint ~$53M)
• Release Date: March 21, 2025
• Context: Lowered from earlier $63M–$70M estimates, reflecting current trends and pre-release buzz.


Disney live-action remakes:

• Beauty and the Beast (2017): Opened at $174 million domestic, grossed $504 million domestic (2.9x multiplier), $759 million international (1.5x domestic), total $1.26 billion worldwide.
• Aladdin (2019): Opened at $91 million domestic, grossed $355 million domestic (3.9x multiplier), $695 million international (2x domestic), total $1.05 billion worldwide.
• Maleficent (2014): Opened at $69.4 million domestic, grossed $241 million domestic (3.47x multiplier), $517 million international (2.14x domestic), total $758 million worldwide.

 

[Chi84]

Needs an opening of $65 million for potential 600 million.

• With a 3.2x multiplier: Domestic = $65 million × 3.2 = $208 million.
• International at 1.9x domestic (slightly above average): $208 million × 1.9 ≈ $395 million.
• Total = $208 million + $395 million ≈ $603 million, just above $600 million.


Currently for Snow White:
• Projected Opening Weekend: $48M–$58M (midpoint ~$53M)
• Release Date: March 21, 2025
• Context: Lowered from earlier $63M–$70M estimates, reflecting current trends and pre-release buzz.


Disney live-action remakes:

• Beauty and the Beast (2017): Opened at $174 million domestic, grossed $504 million domestic (2.9x multiplier), $759 million international (1.5x domestic), total $1.26 billion worldwide.
• Aladdin (2019): Opened at $91 million domestic, grossed $355 million domestic (3.9x multiplier), $695 million international (2x domestic), total $1.05 billion worldwide.
• Maleficent (2014): Opened at $69.4 million domestic, grossed $241 million domestic (3.47x multiplier), $517 million international (2.14x domestic), total $758 million worldwide.

Why are you fixated on $600 million? No credible sources are predicting that number.

 

[Chi84]

'Snow White' First Reactions Praise Remake: "A Big Surprise," Rachel Zegler "Stuns" — The Hollywood Reporter

Disney held the L.A. premiere of its live-action reboot starring Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot on Saturday and early reactions to the film say that it is far better than anticipated — CGI dwarfs aside.

apple.news

 

[Chi84]

'Snow White' First Reactions Praise Film as a 'Visual Feast' and One of Disney's 'Best Live-Action Remakes in Years' — Variety

Disney's live-action "Snow White" remake has finally been unveiled at the movie's Hollywood premiere, and first reactions are trickling in calling it a dazzling hit for the House of Mouse.

apple.news

 

[TP2000]

So if you managed an investment firm you wouldn’t care what your employees said on social ?

I didn’t say that. I wouldn’t try to control what they said on their own personal profiles, but if one of them posted something inflammatory or offensive, I would expect them to face the appropriate consequences.

So, as the theoretical manager of an investment firm, when a 22 year old new employee posts on her TikTok in the fall of 2024 which then goes viral a screed that says...

"I hope Kamala Harris supporters and Kamala Harris voters and Kamala Harris herself never knows peace."

On Monday morning after that viral TikTok, what are the "appropriate consequences" you take with that young employee?

I work at Taco Bell. Should everything I post on here represent Taco Bell? Or should it be considered an entirely separate part of my life?

I think an entry level Taco Bell employee gets a wider berth on social media than a highly paid Disney starlet.

Just never mention the words "horse meat" in association with your employer, and you should be fine.

So we'll see, but I don't know if the "Irvine Spectrum Pre-sales metric" is anything more than an interesting look at that particular theater.

And anything more than an interesting look at that particular demographic:

Upper-Middle Class Families, With Young Children, With Disneyland Magic Keys and A Long Term Affinity For Disney's Products

@MoonRakerSCM was right to drill down to that specific OC theater. It's a perfect bellwether for this Disney product.

 

[Trauma]

Except we have many many many examples of adults twice her age making gaffs just as bad if not worse.

Also I’m glad you think you’d be perfect however I guarantee even a public figure version of yourself is not, no offense, because no one is which is the point.

I didn’t say I was perfect. I said for SURE I wouldn’t make the mistake she did. I abhor social media and if I was required to have it to help promote a project I would pay someone else to manage it.

I have made many mistakes in my life just as everyone has.

But yes I would be infallible on social because I would refuse to touch it.

 

[Trauma]

For comparison, here's how the other Snow White movies performed:

Snow White and the Huntsman
Grosses
DOMESTIC (39.2%)
$155,332,381
INTERNATIONAL (60.8%)
$241,260,448
WORLDWIDE
$396,592,829

Mirror Mirror
Grosses
DOMESTIC (35.5%)
$64,935,167
INTERNATIONAL (64.5%)
$118,083,355
WORLDWIDE
$183,018,522

I don’t think these numbers matter unless we know what the budgets are. 180 million for one movie could be great, while 500 million for another could be a loss.

 

[LittleBuford]

So, as the theoretical manager of an investment firm, when a 22 year old new employee posts on her TikTok in the fall of 2024 which then goes viral a screed that says...

"I hope Kamala Harris supporters and Kamala Harris voters and Kamala Harris herself never knows peace."

On Monday morning after that viral TikTok, what are the "appropriate consequences" you take with that young employee?

I would ask the employee to apologise. To my mind, those words (yes, even when said of Harris—this has nothing to do with sides) don’t rise to the level of a fireable offence, so if the employee refused to say sorry for them, I’m not really sure what steps I’d take next. In Zegler’s case, leaving aside the fact that Disney wasn’t in a position to let her go anyway by that point, an apology was issued. People got what they were asking for, though it didn’t seem to satisfy them.

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Why are you fixated on $600 million? No credible sources are predicting that number.

“ • The average of Cinderella and The Little Mermaid ($555.5 million) aligns with a realistic floor.
• The potential for Snow White to leverage its legacy and a favorable release window suggests it could exceed this, approaching $600 million.
• controversies and possible audience fatigue with remakes temper expectations below the $856 million average of all remakes.”

reasonable expectation for Snow White based on the history of live-action Disney Princess movies
Is around $600 million.
This assumes a solid performance, consistent with recent trends and adjusted for its unique circumstances.

 

[Disney Irish]

“ • The average of Cinderella and The Little Mermaid ($555.5 million) aligns with a realistic floor.
• The potential for Snow White to leverage its legacy and a favorable release window suggests it could exceed this, approaching $600 million.
• controversies and possible audience fatigue with remakes temper expectations below the $856 million average of all remakes.”

reasonable expectation for Snow White based on the history of live-action Disney Princess movies
Is around $600 million.
This assumes a solid performance, consistent with recent trends and adjusted for its unique circumstances.

Just curious, since it appears you're quoting this, mind providing the source so we can see the context in which this analysis is being made from.

 

[Disstevefan1]

“ • The average of Cinderella and The Little Mermaid ($555.5 million) aligns with a realistic floor.
• The potential for Snow White to leverage its legacy and a favorable release window suggests it could exceed this, approaching $600 million.
• controversies and possible audience fatigue with remakes temper expectations below the $856 million average of all remakes.”

reasonable expectation for Snow White based on the history of live-action Disney Princess movies
Is around $600 million.
This assumes a solid performance, consistent with recent trends and adjusted for its unique circumstances.

The Numbers says the production budget says it cost 269M

Using the access media accepted formula of 269 * 2.5 = 672M is the break even.

If Disney can keep Snow in the theaters as long as possible it may be possible to break even.

 

[Chi84]

“ • The average of Cinderella and The Little Mermaid ($555.5 million) aligns with a realistic floor.
• The potential for Snow White to leverage its legacy and a favorable release window suggests it could exceed this, approaching $600 million.
• controversies and possible audience fatigue with remakes temper expectations below the $856 million average of all remakes.”

reasonable expectation for Snow White based on the history of live-action Disney Princess movies
Is around $600 million.
This assumes a solid performance, consistent with recent trends and adjusted for its unique circumstances.

If you quote something it’s common practice to identify the source of the information.

 

[Prince-1]

It may not do anything to move the box office needle (or it may) but the reviews so far for Snow White have been pretty solid.

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/snow-white-first-reactions-rachel-zegler-1236337493/

 

[Disstevefan1]

It may not do anything to move the box office needle (or it may) but the reviews so far for Snow White have been pretty solid.

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/snow-white-first-reactions-rachel-zegler-1236337493/

This is “a shining supernova“ of a review!

Break even land here we come!

 

[Prince-1]

This is “a shining supernova“ of a review!

Break even land here we come!

The critics in the article reviewed the movie and they liked it quite a bit They don't worry about the returns as much as you do apparently. Sorry if that doesn't fit your narrative.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The critics in the article reviewed the movie and they liked it quite a bit They don't worry about the returns as much as you do apparently. Sorry if that doesn't fit your narrative.

I don't have a narrative. I am the one who posting this film has a shot at breaking even when many do not think so.

 

[Ghost93]

Early first reactions are almost always positive, I'd wait for the actual review embargo to lift.

That being said, I would love nothing more than for the movie to actually be good. I don't LIKE watching bad movies and would love to be happily surprised/proven wrong about this.

 

[TP2000]

I would ask the employee to apologise. To my mind, those words (yes, even when said of Harris—this has nothing to do with sides) don’t rise to the level of a fireable offence,...

That's it?

She only needs to release a TikTok saying "Sorry you guys were offended!"? You wouldn't try to quantify how badly that idiotic behavior by your employee damaged your company's brand and product line she was representing? I would.

At the very least, I would place her on an immediate leave of absence while I tried to assess how bad the damage was that she had caused to the company's sales and the brand image. Because there's a lot of other employees who don't do idiotic TikTok stunts who are depending on working for a profitable company to support their families.

I'd imagine within two weeks time I'd have made that assessment, had my T's crossed by HR and my I's dotted by Legal, and she wouldn't be working for my company after that kind of bizarrely idiotic public stunt.

The Numbers says the production budget says it cost 269M

Using the access media accepted formula of 269 * 2.5 = 672M is the break even.

If Disney can keep Snow in the theaters as long as possible it may be possible to break even.

I saw that too. Apparently that oddly specific number of $269,400,000 is from the British tax documents from 2023, as reported by Forbes, and is before the $55 Million rebate check from the British government is backed out of the total. Which brings the production cost down to a post-rebate amount of $214 Million as of late 2023.

Yet that was before Snow White was shelved for over a year to undergo rewrites and post-production reworking. If I were to guess, I'd imagine they tacked on at least another $25 Million, if not $50 Million, in the past 14 months of work. After the British rebate check, I'd guess the total for Snow White will come in around $250 Million.

Apparently, we won't know that final amount until the tax paperwork is filed and released publicly in the UK, later this year.

Disney Reveals ‘Snow White’ Remake Is Set To Blow Its Budget

Disney has revealed that the cost of making its live action Snow White ballooned to $269.4 million by the end of 2023 putting it on course to blow its budget more than a year before release.

www.forbes.com

Early first reactions are almost always positive, I'd wait for the actual review embargo to lift.

That being said, I would love nothing more than for the movie to actually be good. I don't LIKE watching bad movies and would love to be happily surprised/proven wrong about this.

Once again, you provide such a sound and stable informed opinion on this Box Office thread. Thanks!