Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I've been posting the leadup to the box office, which is the best thing we have at the moment. The presales and available seats at the Irvine Spectrum are pretty bleak looking. 99.5% of available seats are open.

Shaping up to be a massive bomb.

The statement I've been hearing around is it's almost poetic... Snow White started Disney, Snow White will end it.

Tracking still has it between $60-$70M opening, which is what Cinderella did 10 years ago and that went on to making $542M WW.

Long Range Forecast: WARFARE, KING OF KINGS, DROP, THE AMATEUR Give Counter-Programming Options to Mid-April Moviegoers

Subscribe to our FREE email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news. Long Range Forecast — April 11, 2025 Warfare | A24 Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $12M – $18M Alex Garland teams up with his Civil War collaborator, Ray...

www.boxofficepro.com

So we'll see, but I don't know if the "Irvine Spectrum Pre-sales metric" is anything more than an interesting look at that particular theater.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think it does 600 million.

Its possible, we'll have to see once reviews start coming out and how it opens.

This is a thread of movies at the box office and the current state of affairs for the films we discuss. The discussion is all part of the current zeitgeist around the films and Snow White… couple of weeks ago it was Captain America.
Agree that people shouldn’t take anything said personally and not attack anyone personally.
Snow white will come and go and next year we will all be talking about another Disney film.

Except the topic leads to heated discussions as people are very passionate about it with their opinions which is what got the Snow White thread shutdown to begin with. And so its best just to move on as it appears its starting to get heated again. Besides its all been said before, so this is not covering any new ground, its just rehashing the last 2-3 years of discussions surrounding this movie and its stars.

Best to just go back to talking about the numbers since we're now less than 5 days from opening.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't know if anyone is tracking this movie, and I don't follow Formula One myself, but this new Brad Pitt F1 movie looks good. Its an Apple movie being distributed by WB.

Here's the trailer -



Its releasing the last weekend in June, so its not competing directly against any Disney films other than ones already released in the weeks before.

 

[Agent H]

I've been posting the leadup to the box office, which is the best thing we have at the moment. The presales and available seats at the Irvine Spectrum are pretty bleak looking. 99.5% of available seats are open.

Shaping up to be a massive bomb.

The statement I've been hearing around is it's almost poetic... Snow White started Disney, Snow White will end it.

Snow White didn’t start Disney. The first thing Walt Disney animation studios ever made was the cartoon Alice’s wonderland in 1921.

 

[drizgirl]

I know people are going to claim that they would be in full support of her, but if she made those same comments accept in the opposite direction about team blue, I would have loved to see how supportive this forum was of her.

We will never know, but I for one would be equally disgusted. We should not wish ill will or hate on people . We can disagree. Heck get angry. But talking the way she did is not good for anyone.

I had the same thought. I really doubt it.

 

[coffeefan]

For comparison, here's how the other Snow White movies performed:

Snow White and the Huntsman
Grosses
DOMESTIC (39.2%)
$155,332,381
INTERNATIONAL (60.8%)
$241,260,448
WORLDWIDE
$396,592,829

Mirror Mirror
Grosses
DOMESTIC (35.5%)
$64,935,167
INTERNATIONAL (64.5%)
$118,083,355
WORLDWIDE
$183,018,522

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I think it does 600 million.

I’m sticking with my revised estimate of $350 million, if it opens to $55 million it’s going to really struggle to get beyond $400m, not impossible if word of mouth is amazing but opening weekend is vital to a films box office success.

 

[Stripes]

I know people are going to claim that they would be in full support of her, but if she made those same comments accept in the opposite direction about team blue, I would have loved to see how supportive this forum was of her.

We will never know, but I for one would be equally disgusted. We should not wish ill will or hate on people . We can disagree. Heck get angry. But talking the way she did is not good for anyone.

I am not reading any support for Zegler's comments. I think the overwhelming majority of people in this country love their neighbors. We are all exhausted by the "negative discourse" that Zegler promulgated, and her comments were offensive to most Americans regardless of political persuasion.

I don't believe in hating anybody, including Zegler. She's a young, talented actress with a spotlight on her every move. Let me tell you, I certainly wouldn't get through that kind of public scrutiny unscathed either, especially at her age.

Regardless, there's a certain hateful and unwarranted vitriol surrounding Zegler on social media which is what I find uncomfortable about the present moment. I just want peace and love for everybody. And I believe the film should succeed or fail based on the merits of the picture. To encourage otherwise would be unfair to the thousands of people that have poured their heart into the film.

 

[TalkingHead]

Just checked the IMAX screenings on Thursday in a small city and there were a total of 4 seats sold for three shows. Disney Springs AMC is selling well but there’s nothing unusual about that, other than the fact that even a lot of those Dolby shows still have seats available.

AMC stock is flatlining. How long before theaters have to start thinking about drastic changes in operations?

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Needs an opening of $65 million for potential 600 million.

• With a 3.2x multiplier: Domestic = $65 million × 3.2 = $208 million.
• International at 1.9x domestic (slightly above average): $208 million × 1.9 ≈ $395 million.
• Total = $208 million + $395 million ≈ $603 million, just above $600 million.


Currently for Snow White:
• Projected Opening Weekend: $48M–$58M (midpoint ~$53M)
• Release Date: March 21, 2025
• Context: Lowered from earlier $63M–$70M estimates, reflecting current trends and pre-release buzz.


Disney live-action remakes:

• Beauty and the Beast (2017): Opened at $174 million domestic, grossed $504 million domestic (2.9x multiplier), $759 million international (1.5x domestic), total $1.26 billion worldwide.
• Aladdin (2019): Opened at $91 million domestic, grossed $355 million domestic (3.9x multiplier), $695 million international (2x domestic), total $1.05 billion worldwide.
• Maleficent (2014): Opened at $69.4 million domestic, grossed $241 million domestic (3.47x multiplier), $517 million international (2.14x domestic), total $758 million worldwide.

 

[Chi84]

Needs an opening of $65 million for potential 600 million.

• With a 3.2x multiplier: Domestic = $65 million × 3.2 = $208 million.
• International at 1.9x domestic (slightly above average): $208 million × 1.9 ≈ $395 million.
• Total = $208 million + $395 million ≈ $603 million, just above $600 million.


Currently for Snow White:
• Projected Opening Weekend: $48M–$58M (midpoint ~$53M)
• Release Date: March 21, 2025
• Context: Lowered from earlier $63M–$70M estimates, reflecting current trends and pre-release buzz.


Disney live-action remakes:

• Beauty and the Beast (2017): Opened at $174 million domestic, grossed $504 million domestic (2.9x multiplier), $759 million international (1.5x domestic), total $1.26 billion worldwide.
• Aladdin (2019): Opened at $91 million domestic, grossed $355 million domestic (3.9x multiplier), $695 million international (2x domestic), total $1.05 billion worldwide.
• Maleficent (2014): Opened at $69.4 million domestic, grossed $241 million domestic (3.47x multiplier), $517 million international (2.14x domestic), total $758 million worldwide.

Why are you fixated on $600 million? No credible sources are predicting that number.

 

[Chi84]

'Snow White' First Reactions Praise Remake: "A Big Surprise," Rachel Zegler "Stuns" — The Hollywood Reporter

Disney held the L.A. premiere of its live-action reboot starring Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot on Saturday and early reactions to the film say that it is far better than anticipated — CGI dwarfs aside.

apple.news

 

[Chi84]

'Snow White' First Reactions Praise Film as a 'Visual Feast' and One of Disney's 'Best Live-Action Remakes in Years' — Variety

Disney's live-action "Snow White" remake has finally been unveiled at the movie's Hollywood premiere, and first reactions are trickling in calling it a dazzling hit for the House of Mouse.

apple.news

 

[TP2000]

So if you managed an investment firm you wouldn’t care what your employees said on social ?

I didn’t say that. I wouldn’t try to control what they said on their own personal profiles, but if one of them posted something inflammatory or offensive, I would expect them to face the appropriate consequences.

So, as the theoretical manager of an investment firm, when a 22 year old new employee posts on her TikTok in the fall of 2024 which then goes viral a screed that says...

"I hope Kamala Harris supporters and Kamala Harris voters and Kamala Harris herself never knows peace."

On Monday morning after that viral TikTok, what are the "appropriate consequences" you take with that young employee?

I work at Taco Bell. Should everything I post on here represent Taco Bell? Or should it be considered an entirely separate part of my life?

I think an entry level Taco Bell employee gets a wider berth on social media than a highly paid Disney starlet.

Just never mention the words "horse meat" in association with your employer, and you should be fine.

So we'll see, but I don't know if the "Irvine Spectrum Pre-sales metric" is anything more than an interesting look at that particular theater.

And anything more than an interesting look at that particular demographic:

Upper-Middle Class Families, With Young Children, With Disneyland Magic Keys and A Long Term Affinity For Disney's Products

@MoonRakerSCM was right to drill down to that specific OC theater. It's a perfect bellwether for this Disney product.

 

[Trauma]

Except we have many many many examples of adults twice her age making gaffs just as bad if not worse.

Also I’m glad you think you’d be perfect however I guarantee even a public figure version of yourself is not, no offense, because no one is which is the point.

I didn’t say I was perfect. I said for SURE I wouldn’t make the mistake she did. I abhor social media and if I was required to have it to help promote a project I would pay someone else to manage it.

I have made many mistakes in my life just as everyone has.

But yes I would be infallible on social because I would refuse to touch it.

 

[Trauma]

For comparison, here's how the other Snow White movies performed:

Snow White and the Huntsman
Grosses
DOMESTIC (39.2%)
$155,332,381
INTERNATIONAL (60.8%)
$241,260,448
WORLDWIDE
$396,592,829

Mirror Mirror
Grosses
DOMESTIC (35.5%)
$64,935,167
INTERNATIONAL (64.5%)
$118,083,355
WORLDWIDE
$183,018,522

I don’t think these numbers matter unless we know what the budgets are. 180 million for one movie could be great, while 500 million for another could be a loss.

 

[LittleBuford]

So, as the theoretical manager of an investment firm, when a 22 year old new employee posts on her TikTok in the fall of 2024 which then goes viral a screed that says...

"I hope Kamala Harris supporters and Kamala Harris voters and Kamala Harris herself never knows peace."

On Monday morning after that viral TikTok, what are the "appropriate consequences" you take with that young employee?

I would ask the employee to apologise. To my mind, those words (yes, even when said of Harris—this has nothing to do with sides) don’t rise to the level of a fireable offence, so if the employee refused to say sorry for them, I’m not really sure what steps I’d take next. In Zegler’s case, leaving aside the fact that Disney wasn’t in a position to let her go anyway by that point, an apology was issued. People got what they were asking for, though it didn’t seem to satisfy them.

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Why are you fixated on $600 million? No credible sources are predicting that number.

“ • The average of Cinderella and The Little Mermaid ($555.5 million) aligns with a realistic floor.
• The potential for Snow White to leverage its legacy and a favorable release window suggests it could exceed this, approaching $600 million.
• controversies and possible audience fatigue with remakes temper expectations below the $856 million average of all remakes.”

reasonable expectation for Snow White based on the history of live-action Disney Princess movies
Is around $600 million.
This assumes a solid performance, consistent with recent trends and adjusted for its unique circumstances.

 

[Disney Irish]

“ • The average of Cinderella and The Little Mermaid ($555.5 million) aligns with a realistic floor.
• The potential for Snow White to leverage its legacy and a favorable release window suggests it could exceed this, approaching $600 million.
• controversies and possible audience fatigue with remakes temper expectations below the $856 million average of all remakes.”

reasonable expectation for Snow White based on the history of live-action Disney Princess movies
Is around $600 million.
This assumes a solid performance, consistent with recent trends and adjusted for its unique circumstances.

Just curious, since it appears you're quoting this, mind providing the source so we can see the context in which this analysis is being made from.

 

[Disstevefan1]

“ • The average of Cinderella and The Little Mermaid ($555.5 million) aligns with a realistic floor.
• The potential for Snow White to leverage its legacy and a favorable release window suggests it could exceed this, approaching $600 million.
• controversies and possible audience fatigue with remakes temper expectations below the $856 million average of all remakes.”

reasonable expectation for Snow White based on the history of live-action Disney Princess movies
Is around $600 million.
This assumes a solid performance, consistent with recent trends and adjusted for its unique circumstances.

The Numbers says the production budget says it cost 269M

Using the access media accepted formula of 269 * 2.5 = 672M is the break even.

If Disney can keep Snow in the theaters as long as possible it may be possible to break even.