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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Y'all's definition of flatlined is really strange. I think it was BrianLo who was talking a month back or so about the dramatic underestimation of the long tail on this board.

Just counting from today to when Mufasa finally leaves theaters, it will make more than 85% of all US releases do in their entire theatrical run.

Yes, the movie was declared flatlined 150 million ago and has been re-declared as such every week.

I’m actually not doing this to gloat, I’m just trying to help people understand that successful movies have tails and they are fairly underestimated. Diminishing returns, sure. But not usually “flat”. Movies that Flatline as Walter says usually declare as such by their weekend 2 epic drops. Accelerated diminishing returns become apparent to us, but that’s also not normal. Movies pick up spare change for ages.

We’ll probably land a good 200M-250M over when this movie was declared flatlined… and in this case, that’s a significant difference. One that makes the film not a miss but actually a modest success. There’s always over eagerness to write the obituary for some reason. Maybe I just enjoy seeing how far things go and predicting the endpoint more than most?

Whatever this movie earns this weekend it will likely do again by a factor of at least 2X more by the end of its run.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Speaking of things that may affect future box office, WB got hit with another lawsuit for Superman -

https://www.reuters.com/business/me...copyright-lawsuit-ahead-new-movie-2025-01-31/
Doesn't this happen each time they start a new Superman movie series? I thought it happened with Snyders version and also Reeves version, I don't remember if there was anything with Routh, where the estate goes after them. I'm not sure it will have any affect at all since they want the movie to do well since it could mean a fat royalty check. I just don't see them (the estate) doing anything to really hinder the film.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Doesn't this happen each time they start a new Superman movie series? I thought it happened with Snyders version and also Reeves version, I don't remember if there was anything with Routh, where the estate goes after them. I'm not sure it will have any affect at all since they want the movie to do well since it could mean a fat royalty check. I just don't see them (the estate) doing anything to really hinder the film.
Problem here is it being filed so close to the release date. So this is more than just wanting some residuals from a single movie. This is about the future of the character itself. So the family of Shuster is willing to risk this upcoming film to ensure WB properly licenses the character for all future use. So yeah it could have an overall impact on this upcoming movie if the publicity is negative enough.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Problem here is it being filed so close to the release date. So this is more than just wanting some residuals from a single movie. This is about the future of the character itself. So the family of Shuster is willing to risk this upcoming film to ensure WB properly licenses the character for all future use. So yeah it could have an overall impact on this upcoming movie if the publicity is negative enough.
Sure it could, never say never. The quotes I've seen seem like they don't want to stop or even disturb the film, at least in my opinion. They just want proper licensing for some international markets. Of course WB says they are in the right, so we'll see how it plays out. I think if WB feels the movie could be hurt by this I'd bet they settle. There's just too much riding on this single film for the new DC universe. That's why I don't think it will cause any issues for the film.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Sure it could, never say never. The quotes I've seen seem like they don't want to stop or even disturb the film, at least in my opinion. They just want proper licensing for some international markets. Of course WB says they are in the right, so we'll see how it plays out. I think if WB feels the movie could be hurt by this I'd bet they settle. There's just too much riding on this single film for the new DC universe. That's why I don't think it will cause any issues for the film.
Yep, we'll see. But the timing is curious, you'd think if this was just about this single movie they would have filed the suit last year when filming started. So they are certainly doing this to force WBs hand into settling, rather than trying to drag this movie through the mud. Again its about the overall licensing of the character not a single movie in my opinion.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
I read an article the other day that said this legal battle has been going on for many years already, they lost in the US courts last year so now they’re filing in the UK where the contract laws are different.
 

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
This is “flatlining.” Or shall we say flight-lining? 😉

IMG_0452.jpeg
IMG_0453.jpeg
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
I have seen people in this thread say there really is not an Oscar’s bump anymore… well I just bought Sunday Matinee tickets for A Complete Unknown and except for the 2 tows in the front…it was nearly sold out… I bought the only 2 seats together available for us…. I was not expecting that considering the movie has been playing at our local theater since Christmas Day
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I don't disagree, however the ToS does say this -

"However, it is not acceptable to use AI to create entire posts."

Which that poster has been called out before for doing, and not just by me but multiple posters. So if they or any other poster wants to use AI in the appropriate way, I have no issue with it, as stated in this thread I'm very familiar with it due my use of it in my daily tech life. :)
I think she’s gently telling you not to be the gatekeeper, Vinz Clortho
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
View attachment 841710

Found a 2025 box office prediction poll today, this is the average of all voters, curious if people here agree or disagree with the general consensus.

Since these are worldwide numbers, I disagree overall with most everything listed as below $500M. I think raise everything below that up a tier and that’ll be closer to where things settle.

Also why did you remove the video you posted along with it?
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I think you confuse “concern” for “celebration”

I think everyone wants a good movie…but when they attempt to “alter audience” to accept bad movies….yeah…not good for anyone
I think you haven't been paying attention if you think there were at least a few who weren't celebrating when it opened soft and looking like it would lose money.

Also not sure what you mean "alter audience", but the term "bad movie" is subjective here. Mufasa by most audience metrics is not considered a "bad movie", but actually a good movie. So lets not get things twisted here.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I think you haven't been paying attention if you think there were at least a few who weren't celebrating when it opened soft and looking like it would lose money.

Also not sure what you mean "alter audience", but the term "bad movie" is subjective here. Mufasa by most audience metrics is not considered a "bad movie", but actually a good movie. So lets not get things twisted here.
Well I don’t revel In flops…I bring it up hoping that someone will be brought in to fix it

Still hoping

As far as “alter audience” I think there ls a lot of evidence that they are somehow providing “less variety” as an after effect of opening trying to provide more?

Only Disney can pull that off
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Well I don’t revel In flops…I bring it up hoping that someone will be brought in to fix it

Still hoping
And I think you confuse our little slice of the internet as having some effect on the overall status of things. We here have no impact on any changes in Hollywood, and certainly don't within TWDC. So you "bringing it up" is only being read by a couple dozen eyes at most, not the agents for change you think we are.

As far as “alter audience” I think there ls a lot of evidence that they are somehow providing “less variety” as an after effect of opening trying to provide more?

Only Disney can pull that off
Not sure what "evidence" you're looking at but Hollywood is a business, one built on trends. Sometimes studios ride trends too far, sometimes not long enough. Disney is well known to ride some trends longer than others, but they have been mostly successful in doing it, so you can't fault them too much for something that has worked. Once it no longer works, well then they'll change course and move in a different direction. Outside of one single dismal year, they continue to be at the top of the heap, so they must be doing something right if movie goers continue to fork over money.

Also they provide variety, maybe not what you would like to see, but variety nonetheless. Its why they have different studio labels to release different things.
 

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