Exactly! I mean, it’s still going to make them money, but not a lot of it.
Yeah. I think depends on what the frame of reference is. I agree with you, comparing Moana 2 to what it was going to be. But given what a Moana sequel could have been, I think Disney did leave money on the table. I think the same applies to Mufasa. The Lion King is considered a masterpiece for Disney and the remake made tons of money. Mufasa should be running away with the box office IMO.
I get what you're saying here -- imagine if Moana 2 had been more than "fine" for most viewers, how much better it might have done. If there's a zeitgeist-capturing, chatter-inspiring blockbuster this season, it's Wicked Part I, even if the box office numbers are bigger for Moana 2. And Zootopia 2 is going up against Wicked: For Good next Thanksgiving...WDFAS needs to step up its game to compete.
Unrelated to your point, but my gut tells me Zootopia 2 is doing Inside Out 2 numbers, especially abroad. Whereas Wicked will do very well but will probably have worse legs than part one.
I think Wicked Part 2 will make slightly more money than part 1, but it will be more front loaded as people won't be "discovering" Wicked throughout the holiday season — the fanbase will be already established. So I think Part 2 will have a much bigger opening than part 1 ($160-$200 millionish opening weekend), but then it will have a steep drop off in the following weekends.
I doubt that they’ll be that rough.
I would be shocked (wouldn’t be the first time) if it did Inside Out 2 numbers. Inside Out 1 was considered by many to be one of the last great Pixar titles, an emotional piece that was heartfelt and amusing; it enjoyed critical acclaim in a way that WDAS and Zootopia haven’t enjoyed.
To paraphrase the Timekeeper, if Captain America bombs Burbank’s pants will be full.
Zootopia was acclaimed at the time and is still generally well-regarded, although it's commentary on racism hasn't aged the best in a post 2020 world.
I think CinemaScore is more of a test of "did the audience get what they thought they were paying for?" There have been many great movies with bad cinemascores, usually because the movies took bold swings that pushed audiences out of their comfort zone or the movies were mismarketed and the movie people ended up seeing was very different from what they were expecting based on the trailers.
They’ll get over it once The Fantastic 4 makes a billion and Thunderbolts* is a success with $450-$500M WW on a $150M budget.
variety.com
That's still a really impressive opening, and considerably ahead of Mufasa. (And Wonka on the equivalent pre-Christmas weekend last year, and look what legs that had.)
No, but Disney probably expected big things out of a continuation of their biggest non-Marvel hit of 2019. I'm mixing metaphors but when they're putting so many eggs into so few baskets, every movie has to be a home run now.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
Family-friendly movies in the first half of 2024 were nonexistent aside from Kung Fu Panda 4 and IF, (I've heard anecdotal evidence that one reason Godzilla X Kong performed as well as it did was because at least kids wanted to see that) and neither of those had the kind of pop culture footprint that a sequel to one of the most beloved Pixar films can manage. And since the only other family film that summer was Despicable Me 4 (and the only other Disney-backed releases were Deadpool and Wolverine and Alien: Romulus, which weren't aimed at families; Disney didn't have to move its advertising spread to another family title for months) it had a lot of time and space to develop legs beyond that giant opening weekend.