Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Ghost93]

Barbies marketing and meme-ification likely guarantees a big opening, but we don’t know how long it’s legs will be. I wouldn’t bet against it, but we have no word at all on its actual quality and it’s still an odd beast of a film with a lot of questions - will families turn out for the brand, even though it’s an adult comedy?

I think Barbie will be a quality movie, but I also think it will be a lot more adult than the average family would suspect. I also feel the movie will likely be targeted by people complaining about "wokeness" once people actually see what the movie really is.

I'm excited about the film and won't deny the hype, but I also think it may not be as commercial as one would think. But I'm certain it WILL dominate the headlines when the Haunted Mansion debuts.

 

[Willmark]

The Rise of Skywalker made the trilogy uneven when it decided to retcon everything interesting about the Last Jedi. I really wish they had stuck with Colin Trevvorow's original episode 9 script "Duel of the Fates." It would have still been a flawed trilogy, but it would have been much more cohesive than the mess we ended up with in "Rise of Skywalker."

The fact that they retroconned Last Jedi tells us everything we need to know about it.

Just how flawed it was.

 

[Ghost93]

The fact that they retroconned Last Jedi tells us everything we need to know about it.

Just how flawed it was.

The Last Jedi alienated half the fandom. The Rise of Skywalker angered those who liked The Last Jedi, but did not do enough to redeem the trilogy for those who hated it.

Had Duel of the Fates been made, the sequel trilogy would have remained polarizing instead of universally reviled by all sides.

 

[BrianLo]

I'm really cheering on Barbie, because it seems like a movie 'for me' and I'd never under any real circumstance ever be excited for a Barbie movie.

But I do admit I think this one is going to be a huge hit with one demo and I don't know how much that will translate to others. Ironically TLM and Barbie have a lot of overlap, but I think in how Barbie *strangely* will appeal to Millennial men and outrageously millennial woman, it will lose more in kids.

 

[erasure fan1]

I'm really cheering on Barbie, because it seems like a movie 'for me' and I'd never under any real circumstance ever be excited for a Barbie movie.

I find the Barbie movie an interesting case. When I first saw the trailer I said, everyone is going to think this looks ridiculous. I know I did. It's funny that so many are excited for it. It completely went over my head for sure. Lol

 

[BrianLo]

I find the Barbie movie an interesting case. When I first saw the trailer I said, everyone is going to think this looks ridiculous. I know I did. It's funny that so many are excited for it. It completely went over my head for sure. Lol

I've been following it pre-trailers. There was a lot of trades excitement for it when the script went out and Greta/Margot/Ryan all attached themselves. I think the trailers caught people off guard but there was a lot of 'get excited' for an IP you under no circumstance would be normally excited for. A lot of my peer group seem extremely on board.

I do for that reason think it will have a lot more buzz for opening weekend than Indy.

On that note Greta is now attached to Narnia for Netflix. That's definitely something else I'll follow.

 

[Ghost93]

On that note Greta is now attached to Narnia for Netflix. That's definitely something else I'll follow.

I hope Netflix adapts some of the Narnia stories that have never made it to film — The Magician's Nephew, the Horse and His Boy and the Last Battle.

It's a shame Disney abandoned the series as the first two movies were quite good!

 

[BrianLo]

I hope Netflix adapts some of the Narnia stories that have never made it to film — The Magician's Nephew, the Horse and His Boy and the Last Battle.

It's a shame Disney abandoned the series as the first two movies were quite good!

I've just hit the phase where movies are being directed and acted by people my age. So while I think some people seem a bit confused and lost, there is a bit of a strange generational magic that I'm experiencing.

Same way Turning Red connected in me in a way that I do not think it hit for many, many other people. Turning Red is my personal La La Land (a movie I thought was overly self-indulgent and made for Hollywood by Hollywood).

 

[TP2000]

Barbie is rated PG-13, and the marketing/trailers are making it clear it's not for small children.

I doubt there will be many 7 year old girls in the audience for Barbie, or at least 7 year old girls whose mother's are protective and sane.

I'm baffled why Disney didn't make Barbie and instead let it go to Warner Bros. Mattel used to be the sponsor of Small World at Disneyland and they had that awful Barbie stage show at Epcot Center during the Clinton years. Why would Disney pass on Barbie?

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

The Last Jedi alienated half the fandom. The Rise of Skywalker angered those who liked The Last Jedi, but did not do enough to redeem the trilogy for those who hated it.

Had Duel of the Fates been made, the sequel trilogy would have remained polarizing instead of universally reviled by all sides.

I was underwhelmed by the leaked info about the Colin Treverrow story.

Plus the Jurassic World movies were flat out awful.

Dominion angered audiences. I can’t imagine he would have pleased Star Wars fans.

 

[Willmark]

The Last Jedi alienated half the fandom. The Rise of Skywalker angered those who liked The Last Jedi, but did not do enough to redeem the trilogy for those who hated it.

Had Duel of the Fates been made, the sequel trilogy would have remained polarizing instead of universally reviled by all sides.

Or they could have skipped making such a divisive movie all together and made the majority of folks happy in the first place.

 

[Jedijax719]

Duel of the Fates was a WEIRD script/storyline. Great concept art you can find online, but very strange story. It probably would have been seen as SW gone off the deep end. BUT it did have something they needed to do which is have Finn lead a stormtrooper revolution.

 

[Ghost93]

Duel of the Fates was a WEIRD script/storyline. Great concept art you can find online, but very strange story. It probably would have been seen as SW gone off the deep end. BUT it did have something they needed to do which is have Finn lead a stormtrooper revolution.

Duel of the Fates is definitely not perfect. However, I liked NOTHING about Rise of Skywalker. It's the only Star Wars movie I dislike (although I am indifferent to Solo). There isn't a thing about TROS that would make me want to rewatch it. And I think bringing back Palpatine from the dead is an unimaginably awful idea that retroactively ruins the original trilogy. I'd rate Rise of Skywalker a 2 or 3/10.

 

[Tha Realest]

Barbies marketing and meme-ification likely guarantees a big opening, but we don’t know how long it’s legs will be. I wouldn’t bet against it, but we have no word at all on its actual quality and it’s still an odd beast of a film with a lot of questions - will families turn out for the brand, even though it’s an adult comedy?

Have any Disney films outperformed their projections this year? Because as it stands right now I share others concerns that it’ll get overshadowed by a big Barbie opening. Kicking to the later summer/fall window seems more sensible.

 

[erasure fan1]

Dominion angered audiences. I can’t imagine he would have pleased Star Wars fans.

Pleasing fans went out the window when they decided on pass the writing/director baton with the trilogy. I don't think anyone thought when episode 7 was released, they had zero plan for the trilogy. I don't think there was any way to really redeem episode 9, not Collin, JJ or Rian.

 

[Willmark]

Duel of the Fates is definitely not perfect. However, I liked NOTHING about Rise of Skywalker. It's the only Star Wars movie I dislike (although I am indifferent to Solo). There isn't a thing about TROS that would make me want to rewatch it. And I think bringing back Palpatine from the dead is an unimaginably awful idea that retroactively ruins the original trilogy. I'd rate Rise of Skywalker a 2 or 3/10.

(For the record: I'm indifferent to Rise of Skywalker, I simply note the first 45 minutes or so are about undoing Last Jedi.)

What are your thoughts on how the Last Jedi retroactively ruins the original trilogy far more?

Just one example: why have the trench run in a New Hope or need to knock out the reactor core in Return of the Jedi when all it takes is just ramming a few starships at light speed into it?

 

[jpinkc]

I still havent and wont EVER see Rise of Skywalker. They cant put Luke, Leia and Han in ONE SCENE TOGETHER!?!?!?!?!?!?! I MEAN WTH!!!

 

[TP2000]

Have any Disney films outperformed their projections this year?

As of early July, two Disney tentpole films have made money this year, and both were Marvel. The other two haven't yet broke even.

Ant Man 2/17/23: +50 Million Dollars ($300 Million production/marketing budget, $350 Million 60/40 split global box office)
Guardians 3 5/5/23: +51 Million Dollars ($350 Million production/marketing budget, $401 Million 60/40 split global box office)
The Little Mermaid 5/26/23: -134 Million Dollars ($400 Million production/marketing budget, $266 Million 60/40 split global box office)
Elemental 6/16/23: -207 Million Dollars ($300 Million production/marketing budget, $93 Million 60/40 split global box office)

Using those four tentpoles with their profits/losses so far this summer, The Walt Disney Company is in the hole for $240 Million in losses from its 2023 tentpole movies thus far. Of course Elemental will eek out another 30 or 40 million in global box office, while Mermaid has pretty much flatlined globally. That is also not including Indy 5, as its too early to start figuring it into the profit/loss columns. But it's obvious Indy 5 is also going to lose a heckuva lot of money for Disney.

Unless Wish is a huge blockbuster Billion Dollar hit, Disney will lose hundreds of millions of dollars on its 6 tentpole movies in '23.

 

[Ghost93]

What are your thoughts on how the Last Jedi retroactively ruins the original trilogy far more?

TBH, I felt the Force Awakens already ruined the happy ending of the original trilogy by having the First Order rise only 30 years after the OG trilogy ended. It made it feel like the victory at the end of Return of the Jedi hardly mattered. Han and Leia breaking up and having miserable lives also kinda ruined the ending of the original trilogy.

While the Force Awakens didn't explicitly confirm that Luke had become an angry, secluded hermit, I kinda assumed that was the case from the little we heard of him in TFA. The Last Jedi just confirmed my suspicions. I suppose they could have gone in a different direction with Luke's character in TLJ, but I had already assumed the worst when I watched TFA.

Still, despite their problems with retroactively weakening the OG trilogy, neither The Force Awakens or The Last Jedi were stupid enough to bring Palpatine back from the dead. THAT was the final straw that made the sequel trilogy irredeemable for me.

 

[BrianLo]

Of course Elemental will eek out another 30 or 40 million in global box office, while Mermaid has pretty much flatlined globally.

Eek out? The film did another 55 million last week. It doesn’t exit theatres this week.

It also hasn’t even released in a few possible majors. UK and Japan particularly. You might want to take another stab at that prediction.

Mermaid probably has 30 left.