Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I mean, it’s a wildly inaccurate cartoon map. There are similar lines near Greenland. Whatever’s going on, it clearly isn’t designed to kowtow to China.

Not to put too fine of a point on it, but the line and the claim to the region was deemed invalid and illegal by international courts almost a decade ago. So make of that whatever you will to determine intent.

But as I said I'll give the benefit of the doubt. Either way its not going to help the film get released in those regions unless its edited out. And now that its known, if its edited out then China bans it.

So basically WBD is damned if they do and damned if they don't.

 

[LittleBuford]

Not to put too fine of a point on it, but the line was deemed invalid by international courts almost a decade ago. So make of that whatever you will to determine intent.

Why would the designer know anything about this? It seems frankly a bit silly to me to read any sort of intent into a highly unrealistic and schematic cartoon map, especially when it’s not even clear what that dotted line is meant to represent.

 

[Disney Irish]

Why would the designer know anything about this? It seems frankly a bit silly to me to read any sort of intent into a highly unrealistic and schematic cartoon map, especially when it’s not even clear what that dotted line is meant to represent.

Because this is not the first film or tv show in Hollywood to have this same issue with the same 9 dotted line in map depictions. Hollywood knows about the 9 dotted line issue in the region.

Either way, as I said lets give the benefit of the doubt here and it made it passed all the editors, all the screenings and such without anyone catching it or any real intent behind it. That still doesn't help the films situation in the region, making another potential box office disaster overseas.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Because this is not the first film or tv show in Hollywood to have this same issue with the same 9 dotted line in map depictions. Hollywood knows about the 9 dotted line issue in the region.

Either way, as I said lets give the benefit of the doubt here and it made it passed all the editors, all the screenings and such without anyone catching it or any real intent behind it. That still doesn't help the films situation in the region, making another potential box office disaster overseas.

I agree it’ll have an impact but I don’t think it’ll be a big one, it’s not like China is boycotting it. It’s crazy no one noticed this though, or maybe they did and decided it was better to lose a couple smaller nations than China.

Must be hard to be a movie maker now, between left/right issues and international politics it’s a mine field.

 

[Disney Irish]

I agree it’ll have an impact but I don’t think it’ll be a big one, it’s not like China is boycotting it. It’s crazy no one noticed this though, or maybe they did and decided it was better to lose a couple smaller nations than China.

Must be hard to be a movie maker now, between left/right issues and international politics it’s a mine field.

Like I mentioned a couple posts ago, WDB is damned if they do and damned if that don't at this point. Either they edit the film for those countries in the region and it gets banned in China or they let the movie get banned in the rest of the region. Basically I don't see a way to make everyone happy here now that its publicly known. So either way the box office is going to be depressed in the region.

And yes someone is always going to have an issue with something that is said or portrayed in movies and tv shows, nothing is safe anymore.

 

[Tha Realest]

Fascinating that these inadvertent “mistakes” always seem to favor the One China principle

 

[TP2000]

Variety sums up Disney's problems with this post-4th bleak assessment after Indy 5's underwhelming performance.

Variety also claims that Ant Man lost "tens of millions" at the box office, so I'll have to go back and check my math (or research its marketing budget) to see how I got it with a $50 Million profit earlier in this thread. I hate math.

But thank God I'm not a Sharp Pencil Boy in Burbank this summer. Yeesh.

Disney’s Harsh New Reality: Costly Film Flops, Creative Struggles and a Shrinking Global Box Office

Disney, once the theatrical gold standard, is experiencing a turn in box office fortunes.

variety.com

But this year, the long-reigning titan of the box office has shown cracks as four of its biggest releases from those brands and others have struggled in theaters. There was the dispiriting release of “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” a rare Marvel movie to likely lose tens of millions in its theatrical run; “The Little Mermaid,” a remake of the 1989 animated classic that fell drastically short of expectations; “Elemental,” an original story that tried and failed to recapture Pixar’s magic; and most recently “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” a nearly $300 million investment in one of cinemas’ most venerable franchises, which no longer appears to have the same hold on today’s audiences. On paper, these films seemed like they had all of the makings of huge hits, but somehow the Disney sparkle was lacking this time, in terms of filling movie theater seats.

 

[TP2000]

A Live-Action remake should not be a 'to the moon or fail' kind of project. It's a remake for crying out loud. Disney's model for profitability is BUSTED. You can't survive assuming every film will make 1billion dollars just to stay afloat.

No kidding. It's so clearly obvious that this business model no longer works for them. Their flagship brands, for several reasons, seem to no longer resonate with American families like they did just a few years ago.

Yet they continue to budget and approve these films as if it's still 2017 for them.

This is no longer sustainable. They can't continue to spend hundreds of millions of dollars per film, and employ thousands of white collar workers in California, using the expectation that each $200 Million film will do at least $750 Million at the box office because it's "Disney".

They are cash drunk and need an intervention. My guess is end of FY2023 is it and their will be a whole new sheriff in town soon.

Agreed. And Fiscal '24 is only 90 days away.

 

[TsWade2]

Variety sums up Disney's problems with this post-4th bleak assessment after Indy 5's underwhelming performance.

Variety also claims that Ant Man lost "tens of millions" at the box office, so I'll have to go back and check my math (or research its marketing budget) to see how I got it with a $50 Million profit earlier in this thread. I hate math.

But thank God I'm not a Sharp Pencil Boy in Burbank this summer. Yeesh.

Disney’s Harsh New Reality: Costly Film Flops, Creative Struggles and a Shrinking Global Box Office

Disney, once the theatrical gold standard, is experiencing a turn in box office fortunes.

variety.com

But this year, the long-reigning titan of the box office has shown cracks as four of its biggest releases from those brands and others have struggled in theaters. There was the dispiriting release of “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” a rare Marvel movie to likely lose tens of millions in its theatrical run; “The Little Mermaid,” a remake of the 1989 animated classic that fell drastically short of expectations; “Elemental,” an original story that tried and failed to recapture Pixar’s magic; and most recently “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” a nearly $300 million investment in one of cinemas’ most venerable franchises, which no longer appears to have the same hold on today’s audiences. On paper, these films seemed like they had all of the makings of huge hits, but somehow the Disney sparkle was lacking this time, in terms of filling movie theater seats.

It's the end of Dis........just kidding! No it's not the end of Disney. While this article maybe a bit depressing, but it does have a good point. Let's hope things will turn around starting with Wish.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Variety sums up Disney's problems with this post-4th bleak assessment after Indy 5's underwhelming performance.

Variety also claims that Ant Man lost "tens of millions" at the box office, so I'll have to go back and check my math (or research its marketing budget) to see how I got it with a $50 Million profit earlier in this thread. I hate math.

But thank God I'm not a Sharp Pencil Boy in Burbank this summer. Yeesh.

Disney’s Harsh New Reality: Costly Film Flops, Creative Struggles and a Shrinking Global Box Office

Disney, once the theatrical gold standard, is experiencing a turn in box office fortunes.

variety.com

But this year, the long-reigning titan of the box office has shown cracks as four of its biggest releases from those brands and others have struggled in theaters. There was the dispiriting release of “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” a rare Marvel movie to likely lose tens of millions in its theatrical run; “The Little Mermaid,” a remake of the 1989 animated classic that fell drastically short of expectations; “Elemental,” an original story that tried and failed to recapture Pixar’s magic; and most recently “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” a nearly $300 million investment in one of cinemas’ most venerable franchises, which no longer appears to have the same hold on today’s audiences. On paper, these films seemed like they had all of the makings of huge hits, but somehow the Disney sparkle was lacking this time, in terms of filling movie theater seats.

On the whole, this article says what we know, but there’s some unusually stupid stuff in here for a Variety article. The suggestion that Pixar needs to be more like Illumination and less (in the articles words) “twee” is a truly distressing suggestion. Dreamworks has made some films that come close to Pixar quality, but Illumination has never risen to within a mile of that level. People accuse Marvel of being the McDonalds of cinema, but that’s not fair (it’s more the Five Guys or Chick-fil-a) - but Illumination really IS McDonalds, pleasing but with very little value.

The other really stupid statement is that Disney needs to create “something new.” Putting aside that Disney has actually been better at whipping up new franchises (albeit animated ones) then other Hollywood studios, this sounds a lot like blaming Disney for audience taste. Of the top 15 films this year, only one is a new IP - M3GAN at 13. Telling Disney to just make “something new” is glibly oblivious.

 

[BrianLo]

$100 Million ago for Mermaid was June 16th. I doubt anyone was declaring Mermaid "finished" only three weeks after it opened.

If anything, back in the middle of June the most realistic among us was declaring Mermaid a "money loser" for Disney, but not yet "finished" at the box office. And yet, Mermaid is now indeed going to be a money loser for Disney. It failed to make any profit at the box office.

Ugh, You really want me to go back and get receipts for you?

My post is from June 15th from a conversation spun out from this post June 12th (which you liked by the way).

It’s done. Box office run is over. Will get $1-$2 a day at the US box office for another week or two and that will bring the total to maybe the $250 in domestic and maybe $ $460 total…but that’s set now.

Won’t cover budget and costs/cuts…it’s a small write down.

So the business/math is over. No debate.

Whether that matters to “cultural significance”?…is another question. Maybe it gets some impact off D+?
We can discuss that under less contentious conditions…

Until we debate whether Moana changes the world…I guess?

I don't quite understand why everyone thinks the domestic take is suddenly over. It's continuing to track in almost perfect lockstep with Aladdin domestically. I don't know if that means 325 or ultimately 350 like Aladdin... but what logic are people using that it will be 275? Nothing with its trend has indicated such.

Don't you love the internet?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ugh, You really want me to go back and get receipts for you?

My post is from June 15th from a conversation spun out from this post June 12th (which you liked by the way).





Don't you love the internet?

Wow…it totally overperformed!!!

It’s only gonna be a $100-120 mil write down instead of a $175

Guess schools out, huh?

 

[BrianLo]

Wow…it totally overperformed!!!

It’s only gonna be a $100-120 mil write down instead of a $175

Guess schools out, huh?

Lol, this is not to call you out. It's just to point out people keep underestimating the legs on 'A' CinemaScores.

We've seen it with Avatar: WoW, GoTG3, TLM and we are seeing the same thing play out with Elementals.

If you want a film that is DOA - look to the Flash. I'll kindly redirect you to another thread where the write down on TLM is constantly up for debate, but even you were easily agreeable with the concept of 560 back in June.


PS: Indy is a B+, so I'm totally supportive of anyone that wants to tear that ones trajectory down.

 

[Casper Gutman]

One thing to remember for any posters bemoaning both high marketing costs and an over-reliance on IP - the dependence on IP is partially motivated by a desire to keep marketing costs relatively low, especially with the explosion of new markets. IPs come pre-sold to a considerable extent. Marketing a slate of original blockbusters to wildly varied audience would cost quite a lot more.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Lol, this is not to call you out. It's just to point out people keep underestimating the legs on 'A' CinemaScores.

We've seen it with Avatar: WoW, GoTG3, TLM and we are seeing the same thing play out with Elementals.

If you want a film that is DOA - look to the Flash. I'll kindly redirect you to another thread where the write down on TLM is constantly up for debate, but even you were easily agreeable with the concept of 560 back in June.

I’ll say this: it’s about where I thought it would get to even after the pretty abysmal 2nd and 3rd week and the bad foreign gross…

It looked like it may Peter out at 450-475

Getting north of $525 is actually better let’s than it looked


…I mean…not close at all. Disney will black sheep not mention this movie again…but not looking like Raiders of the Lost Disaster either

 

[Casper Gutman]

I’ll say this: it’s about where I thought it would get to even after the pretty abysmal 2nd and 3rd week and the bad foreign gross…

It looked like it may Peter out at 450-475

Getting north of $525 is actually better let’s than it looked


…I mean…not close at all. Disney will black sheep not mention this movie again…but not looking like Raiders of the Lost Disaster either

Disney will absolutely continue to market the film and it’s ancillary offshoots.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

One thing to remember for any posters bemoaning both high marketing costs and an over-reliance on IP - the dependence on IP is partially motivated by a desire to keep marketing costs relatively low, especially with the explosion of new markets. IPs come pre-sold to a considerable extent. Marketing a slate of original blockbusters to wildly varied audience would cost quite a lot more.

The reliance on IP is primarily to drive licensing/product streams…which is sorta a bit on the antiquated side?

But you’re right…it is also to have brand recognition without having to lift a finger for it…


Are you ok? I was worried about you…

 

[BlakeW39]

I think there are three main reasons Hollywood (and by extension, Disney) is struggling right now (and will continue to do so).

1. price-gouging and inflation over the last couple years has resulted in customers becoming more discerning with what they consume; mediocre films aren't enough to draw them out anymore

2. streaming has invented a new, convinient mode of entertainment consumption and COVID forced everyone to find alternative entertainment methods vs. the theatre. Those two factors combined mean that there is lower demand for blockbusters than there was in 2019.

3. now tell me if I'm projecting... but everything runs its course and audiences are just tired of mostly inoffensive, blah IP films? People are just over it. Most of the major hollywood franchises have run their course and compell diminished interest from customers now vs. 2019. If a film is very good then sure we'll see it... but if not, then why bother?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That’s pretty low and awfully misogynistic.

It’s also unfortunately true and I’m not too sure that’s what the “company” would want?

But I could certainly be wrong. Not your fathers disney

Done with the lecture now?

 

[Chi84]

It’s also unfortunately true and I’m not too sure that’s what the “company” would want?

But I could certainly be wrong. Not your fathers disney

Done with the lecture now?

You mean the lecture about morality and the company not wanting to associate itself with Halle? That’s all yours.