Hurricane Ian expected to impact Florida (updates and related discussions)

[Dranth]

I don't necessarily disagree, but let's not act like some public health officials got way over their skis over the last 2+ years

Understandable though.

We have a history of thick headedness in this country that at times has served us well but has also been a problem. With that in mind, they kind of have to be a bit over the top sometimes to get through to many people. Plus, I am willing to bet most of these officials are genuinely concerned and would rather error on the side of caution.

Either way, they really can't win. If the underplay it they get buried and if they overplay it, they get accused of being fear mongers.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The "technology" has existed for probably 100 years. It's called put the power lines underground. However, while that is much better against wind damage (not 100% because an uprooted tree can rip the lines out), it is more vulnerable to flooding causing issues.

Underground wiring is a lot more expensive, especially switching above ground lines to underground and nobody wants to pay for it. In new neighborhoods for at least 30 years the lines are underground but the developer pays for it and adds it to the cost of the new homes or lots. Plus it is somewhat cheaper before development when they can just dig a trench and lay conduit without worrying about damaging existing property.

So helping to get the power you pay for each month isn’t a “sound investment”? Is that what we’re saying?

 

[flynnibus]

The cone is already labeled with an explicit warning that storm effects will often exceed the limits of the cone. The thing people seem to overlook is that the cone shows where the eye of the storm MIGHT go... it can wobble left or right anywhere that cone covers. It gets narrower as the time gets closer and the forecasters are more confident.

All they need to do is take out the Icon in the middle of the cone - that is how you defeat this false assumption people get from reading the chart. Then they are forced to see all along the width of the cone as equal.

Replace the dot with a horizontal line to show the time ticks.

This is just a psychological thing in how you design graphics.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

All they need to do is take out the Icon in the middle of the cone - that is how you defeat this false assumption people get from reading the chart. Then they are forced to see all along the width of the cone as equal.

Replace the dot with a horizontal line to show the time ticks.

This is just a psychological thing in how you design graphics.

They could also read/listen

 

[DCBaker]

 

[flynnibus]

What? We have the ability to prevent most of them from ever loosing power in the first place. We shouldn’t just accept that loss of power is a certainty when there are things we can do to largely prevent it. There are actual risks and documented dangers with our current inadequate infrastructure beyond just not being able to turn on a light

Your standard is 'don't lose power' -- That's not necessarily practical, especially if power can be restored in a reasonable amount of time.

Yes, in your ideal world none of this should happen... and even if you did do that, you'd still have failures, and then what? Back to your 'this should never happen' mantra? But we did what you said! The utility pits should have never flooded! Why didn't you prevent that from happening????

No, this is not how real decision making works. You face the reality that you must decide what compromises and what probabilities are acceptable vs their tradeoffs.

You have a cat4+ storm that landed just 24hrs ago and is still in the area... get out of here with the moaning over the existence of any power failures.

 

[StarWarsGirl]

Some humor for the situation (apologies if it's already been shared)

 

[GhostHost1000]

That’s one way to fill in the fantasmic moat quicker. Wow

 

[fgmnt]

As much as that is, it's my understanding that the district's water management can handle even more than that. With any exceptions for poor drainage or clogged systems, the property can handle that without any sustained and damaging flooding

 

[WorldExplorer]

They updated the open quick services available on the information page. Both Port Orleans resorts, Caribbean Beach, and Grand Floridian have everything closed.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Your standard is 'don't lose power' -- That's not necessarily practical, especially if power can be restored in a reasonable amount of time.

Yes, in your ideal world none of this should happen... and even if you did do that, you'd still have failures, and then what? Back to your 'this should never happen' mantra? But we did what you said! The utility pits should have never flooded! Why didn't you prevent that from happening????

No, this is not how real decision making works. You face the reality that you must decide what compromises and what probabilities are acceptable vs their tradeoffs.

You have a cat4+ storm that landed just 24hrs ago and is still in the area... get out of here with the moaning over the existence of any power failures.

You’re acting as though this is something new when it is not. Five years ago with Irma it was discussed how much less the outages would have been if pledges to bury lines made years before had actually occurred.

 

[ToTBellHop]

As much as that is, it's my understanding that the district's water management can handle even more than that. With any exceptions for poor drainage or clogged systems, the property can handle that without any sustained and damaging flooding

It really is a remarkable feat of engineering and we understand today why they pay so much attention to water management. Handling 12 inches of rain in 24 hours after an already wet summer is impressive.

 

[Lilofan]

They updated the open quick services available on the information page. Both Port Orleans resorts, Caribbean Beach, and Grand Floridian have everything closed.

Closed because not enough cast to work or locations run out of food and drink?

 

[peter11435]

Your standard is 'don't lose power' -- That's not necessarily practical, especially if power can be restored in a reasonable amount of time.

Yes, in your ideal world none of this should happen... and even if you did do that, you'd still have failures, and then what? Back to your 'this should never happen' mantra? But we did what you said! The utility pits should have never flooded! Why didn't you prevent that from happening????

No, this is not how real decision making works. You face the reality that you must decide what compromises and what probabilities are acceptable vs their tradeoffs.

You have a cat4+ storm that landed just 24hrs ago and is still in the area... get out of here with the moaning over the existence of any power failures.

Again; I’m not saying no one would lose power.
I’m saying that significantly less people could be without power. Being without power leads to very really dangers such as downed power lines, carbon monoxide poison, inability to call for hell, loss of critical medication and medical equipment…

Obviously nothing is perfect, but if the infrastructure was properly built and maintained we would not have millions without power right now. It doesn’t matter how quickly it can be restored, the risks are still there and could be significantly reduced.

The decision absolutely comes down to money. That is why there are real world examples with little to no loss of power in areas where funds were properly utilized.

This is the perfect time to moan about our infrastructure failures. Nobody thinks or cares about these issues outside of these times.

 

[mikejs78]

It really is a remarkable feat of engineering and we understand today why they pay so much attention to water management. Handling 12 inches of rain in 24 hours after an already wet summer is impressive.

And yet there are those who want to dismantle this success story.

 

[flynnibus]

You’re acting as though this is something new when it is not. Five years ago with Irma it was discussed how much less the outages would have been if pledges to bury lines made years before had actually occurred.

I never said the system was infallable. But when you standard is griping because there are power outages after a cat4+ storm... buggr off. Like I said earlier, if they can't restore power in a reasonable amount of time, then you have a grievance.

 

[Polkadotdress]

I'm in a Facebook group about people moving to Orlando (mainly for Disney) and I'm wondering what this storm will do for them. Seems like Kissimmee (a favorite of the group for some..reason) got some really bad flooding from my understanding. Not just flooding on streets but water getting into people's homes.

Local Central FL was reporting that airboats were being used to rescue citizens from various Kissimmee locations. That's some crazy flooding. The downtown parking garage is also underwater up to the first level.

 

[peter11435]

I never said the system was infallable. But when you standard is griping because there are power outages after a cat4+ storm... buggr off. Like I said earlier, if they can't restore power in a reasonable amount of time, then you have a grievance.

Most of the people without power did not see cat 4 conditions. The fact that areas with proper infrastructure still have power after the storm is proof that the cat4 storm is not truly the problem here.

 

[Nubs70]

You’re acting as though this is something new when it is not. Five years ago with Irma it was discussed how much less the outages would have been if pledges to bury lines made years before had actually occurred.

High tension urban underground installation at $11.4 million/mile.
Miles of insulating oil circulation
Stepdown transformers above ground/underground?
Miles of low tension underground installation.

This can all be accomplished with cash on hand and no rate increase?

 

[flynnibus]

Obviously nothing is perfect, but if the infrastructure was properly built and maintained we would not have millions without power right now. It doesn’t matter how quickly it can be restored, the risks are still there and could be significantly reduced.

Even with 'properly built' infrastructure you'd still have power failures. Even 'properly built' infrastructure has liabilities and exposures to storm damage.

Would less people be impacted? Sure - but we're not building a system from scratch here. And if a system can be built and repaired in a total solution better than a system that will can sill fail, but be harder and more expensive to repair... that doesn't necessarily make the second solution better for everything.

TLDR - You're still going to have power failures after major storms even with perfect systems.

Those at severe risk because of no power have alternatives and their risk is known.