Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Vegas Disney Fan]

They should be important to you and should be a concern of yours if for no other reason than the fact that their actions (or inactions, as it may be) can negatively impact the rest of us by taking up limited hospital resources, increasing insurance premiums, and spreading the virus enough to keep producing new variants while also spreading it to vaccinated people who may not have the same protection as other vaccinated people. That's in addition to potential supply chain issues caused by an outbreak at a warehouse/factory/processing plant. We already have enough supply chain issues caused by ships floating out in the Pacific Ocean waiting for a spot to dock, we shouldn't have to deal with shortages of various foods because a processing plant had an outbreak.

If this were a timing issue or a vaccine shortage issue I’d agree but people have had months of easy availability to get vaccinated, the ones that haven’t been vaccinated aren’t going to be, likely ever. We can’t protect them from themselves forever.

The other issue is Omicron appears to have come from animals. So even if 100% of the worlds population suddenly got vaccinated we’d still be dealing with variants caused by animals.

There will never be a perfect time to ease restrictions but now that anyone over 5 can get a vaccine the conditions are as good as they’re ever going to be. Whether we do it now, next month, next year, or in five years is going to have more or less the same outcome.

 

[correcaminos]

If this were a timing issue or a vaccine shortage issue I’d agree but people have had months of easy availability to get vaccinated, the ones that haven’t been vaccinated aren’t going to be, likely ever. We can’t protect them from themselves forever.

The other issue is Omicron appears to have come from animals. So even if 100% of the worlds population suddenly got vaccinated we’d still be dealing with variants caused by animals.

There will never be a perfect time to ease restrictions but now that anyone over 5 can get a vaccine the conditions are as good as they’re ever going to be. Whether we do it now, next month, next year, or in five years is going to have more or less the same outcome.

Omicron may have come from animals, not appears to have. Scientists are not in agreement. As a whole, I doubt animals will be our long term problem. And no, timing matters with how we do things. Same results will not occur if you end certain things now vs a little latter with more vaccinated.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

If this were a timing issue or a vaccine shortage issue I’d agree but people have had months of easy availability to get vaccinated, the ones that haven’t been vaccinated aren’t going to be, likely ever. We can’t protect them from themselves forever.

The other issue is Omicron appears to have come from animals. So even if 100% of the worlds population suddenly got vaccinated we’d still be dealing with variants caused by animals.

There will never be a perfect time to ease restrictions but now that anyone over 5 can get a vaccine the conditions are as good as they’re ever going to be. Whether we do it now, next month, next year, or in five years is going to have more or less the same outcome.

We can't protect them from themselves forever, that's true. We can protect ourselves from them for now, though - because this isn't just a matter of protecting them from themselves at this moment. I currently have a family member with a breakthrough case because of an unvaccinated co-worker who gave it to 3 people in the workplace (with more test results yet to come in). That family member then spread it to 2 other family members before testing positive (both unvaccinated, 1 because the other is its anti-vax mother and is too young to have a say in the matter). Aside from that, we have to prevent supply chain issues. We can't pretend that a worker in a factory doesn't impact the rest of us by refusing to get vaccinated while taking advantage of the fact that businesses in their area have no way of verifying the vaccination status of all customers, so they walk around maskless because they know they won't get stopped. If that worker causes an outbreak at work, then anyone who needs that product is now impacted. Remember when it was nearly impossible to get meat in 2020 because processing plants all over the country were having to shut down when there were outbreaks in their plants? Have you noticed how there are large sections of empty space on shelves and in refrigerated cases in grocery stores even today? Not only does that make it harder to get the food or other essential products we need, it also drives up the price for the items that are actually available. Doesn't that impact all of us? I know that most of us posting here are doing well enough to go to Disney on a regular basis (maybe multiple times per year or annually or every 2-3 years), but that doesn't mean we want to flush money down the toilet when there are things that can be done to prevent it (or reduce its frequency).

It's frustrating when people who have been fighting against any measure to help keep this situation from getting worse from the beginning are still digging in their heels 21 months later and are now resorting to "It's been long enough" or "This is as good as it's going to get, so we should learn to live with it" as excuses for not doing the things they never did in the first place when those arguments wouldn't have held up to even the slightest bit of scrutiny (I'm not direct that at anyone here, by the way - just a generalization based on things I've seen and heard in my own experiences). Here in NJ, hospitalizations are up 150% over the last month and the 7-day average is up 188%. Despite people claiming that the pandemic is over because vaccines are available, the numbers say the opposite.

N.J. reports 24 COVID deaths, 3,624 cases. Hospitalizations up 150% over last month.

New Jersey's seven-day average for new positive tests increased to 3,840, up 22% from a week ago and 188% from a month ago.

www.nj.com

 

[hopemax]

There will never be a perfect time to ease restrictions but now that anyone over 5 can get a vaccine the conditions are as good as they’re ever going to be. Whether we do it now, next month, next year, or in five years is going to have more or less the same outcome.

No it won't, because of hospital capacity vs susceptible individuals. Don't tell me that 12,000 people all arriving to ride ROTR in the next hour has the same impact as 12,000 people spread out over 12 hours of an operating day as is done with VQ / FP / Genie system. When it can be demonstrated that a COVID wave will not overwhelm health care, cause the suspension of normal care activities and procedures then restrictions can be eased. Otherwise, again, people aren't *really* committed to not overwhelming health care. Eventually, the percentage of immune naïve people will drop low enough, and we'll have a good estimation on breakthrough percentages, especially among older, vulnerable people who would need hospital capacity. But we aren't there yet. And no, it's not going to take 5 years.

 

[Nubs70]

Omicron may have come from animals, not appears to have. Scientists are not in agreement. As a whole, I doubt animals will be our long term problem. And no, timing matters with how we do things. Same results will not occur if you end certain things now vs a little latter with more vaccinated.

Omicron is a new phylogeny

 

[LittleBuford]

New measures passed in parliament today, but only because the opposition chose to support the government:

MPs back Covid passes in England despite huge Tory rebellion

Nearly 100 Tory MPs defy Boris Johnson - but the measures become law thanks to Labour support.

www.bbc.co.uk

Meanwhile, more evidence emerges of illegal Christmas “gatherings” from last year:

Shaun Bailey: Ex London mayor candidate quits over Christmas party - BBC News

Shaun Bailey stands down as chair of a policing committee amid a row over an unauthorised party.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[lazyboy97o]

It is true. Nothing we do in the US is going to stop mutations. The chance of me needing a hospital or ICU bed during a time when COVID patients are causing capacity issues is extremely low as it is for the overwhelming majority of people under 65. Therefore they are of no concern to me.

Hospital stays are not the only impact.

 

[Epcotfan21]

We can add covid cases rising and falling to the other certainties in life along with death and taxes.

 

[correcaminos]

In other news... there are issues with people getting vaccinated who do wish they could. I had a hold out person due to well spouse fed wrong info. Came to me and we talked for months. Finally wanted to but work got in the way (works crazy hours to make ends meet) and then when they got to their pharmacy, unexpectedly closed. Couldn't hang around. Planned to go back a week later and wham, covid+ all 3 in the house. Adults got monoclonal treatments and seem to be fine. Past a point where covid suddenly turns bad. Definitely will be vaccinated later. Person said their fault waiting too long. Now they are using this as a driving force for all to get vaccinated. Their kid wasn't eligible but if it opens to sub 5 they will. They didn't even have a horrible case, but still drove home that they're out of work likely 2 weeks.

This is a disparity that I don't know how to address but wish we could. Makes me even more grumpy thinking of the stick in the mud people who refuse. At least this family was listening in the end, just literally could not afford to get the time off to do so.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

When it can be demonstrated that a COVID wave will not overwhelm health care, cause the suspension of normal care activities and procedures then restrictions can be eased.

So… never, because the 25% who have dug in their heals have shown they are never getting vaccinated. Pretty sad when our only hope of ending restrictions is the virus mutating to a highly contagious form that will be weak and sicken 25% of the population or be very lethal and kill 25% of the population.

 

[lazyboy97o]

So… never, because the 25% who have dug in their heals have shown they are never getting vaccinated. Pretty sad when our only hope of ending restrictions is the virus mutating to a highly contagious form that will be weak and sicken 25% of the population or be very lethal and kill 25% of the population.

Or you could just require vaccination as has been done before.

 

[correcaminos]

So… never, because the 25% who have dug in their heals have shown they are never getting vaccinated. Pretty sad when our only hope of ending restrictions is the virus mutating to a highly contagious form that will be weak and sicken 25% of the population or be very lethal and kill 25% of the population.

Natural immunity does kick in for many of these eventually - and slow going but I do see an increase on numbers getting vaccinated likely through work mandates. Viruses mutate also and maybe will not be as serious as well. So no, not never. This line of thinking is why so many want to give up and forget trying.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Or you could just require vaccination as has been done before.

We could but that would be held up in the courts for years.

I was hoping people would be rational and get vaccinated voluntarily but apparently that’s asking too much. At some point people need to live with the outcome of their decisions though, we can’t keep doing this forever.

 

[hopemax]

So… never, because the 25% who have dug in their heals have shown they are never getting vaccinated. Pretty sad when our only hope of ending restrictions is the virus mutating to a highly contagious form that will be weak and sicken 25% of the population or be very lethal and kill 25% of the population.

Even for Omicron re-infection after previous COVID is like 7%. And only a fraction of them will need hospitalization. Higher than the less than 1% of Delta, so it is, for this period of time, problematic given the Delta wave is still affecting hospital capacity. When this fraction is added to the percentage of unvaccinated with no prior immunity + the percentage of vaccinated but vulnerable it equals a number greater than hospital capacity. But the middle number will continue to decline. Delta infections should also hopefully decline. So no, not never because that 25% will get infected. We just don’t want them getting infected all at the same time and needing to be hospitalized in January and February.

 

[mmascari]

So… never, because the 25% who have dug in their heals have shown they are never getting vaccinated.

This is probably a pessimistic timeline, but what I said last time is still true.

Give it 20 years.

First the vaccine gets fully approved for 5-12.
Then, schools add it to the list of mandatory vaccines.
Then enough years pass that everyone older who held out dies off (of whatever, old age) and everyone younger was vaccinated for kindergarten.

By the 75th anniversary.

Might be 30 years if we're unlucky.

Maybe it only takes 10 years. Until then, this is the new normal. Lay the blame directly on the unvaccinated.

When our kids have kids and they're all vaccinated for COVID before starting kindergarten they'll curse out our generation for stealing much of their youth by not stepping up and getting it done in 18 months.

Or maybe we’re really unlucky and the delayed timeline ends with a vicious mutant. We’ll all be wearing bunny suits. People thought masks were bad.

 

[MisterPenguin]

We could but that would be held up in the courts for years.

Not if mandated by the states. There is Supreme Court precedent that states can mandate vaccines for all the citizens of their state.

The current SCOTUS is allowing employers to require it. It is allowing the Federal Government and the military to mandate it for its personnel.

The unknown issue is if OSHA can mandate as a work-safety issue. Keep in mind the OSHA rule would allow for testing in place of vaccines.

Also unknown is if states can prevent employers in their state from mandating it.

 

[DisneyFan32]

MSN

I'm scared of this. I don't want mask mandate come back in NJ if this is getting worse by Christmas and New Years.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Not if mandated by the states. There is Supreme Court precedent that states can mandate vaccines for all the citizens of their state.

The current SCOTUS is allowing employers to require it. It is allowing the Federal Government and the military to mandate it for its personnel.

The unknown issue is if OSHA can mandate as a work-safety issue. Keep in mind the OSHA rule would allow for testing in place of vaccines.

Also unknown is if states can prevent employers in their state from mandating it.

Florida is not allowing employers to fully require the vaccine, after Desantis signed legislation preventing employers from mandating the Covid shot. It is likely other states will also follow in this action.

It is unknown how the federal mandate works in conjunction with this.

What a mess…

 

[Nubs70]

Omicron evades J&J

 

[BrianLo]

We'll speak about Vermont again in a few weeks when it gets to around 90% fully vaccinated. I'm sure it isn't linear but there should be a noticeable effect at least as a geographic area gets close to the tipping point. VT is at 84% of 18+ fully vaccinated (46.1% of those with a booster dose) so something should be noticeable with respect to reduced spread.

Population Adjusted case rates in Canada have been significantly lower than the US the last few months. Despite the Northern states doing poorly, the numbers drop off at the border. I think that is largely in part because of much higher vaccination penetration and us inching towards said tipping point.