Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyFan32]

This is going to continue for at least another year or two and likely longer with major variants like Omicron (not sure why they don't call it a strain with so many mutations). Get vaccinated if you want to protect yourself and drop the mitigations that provide minimal benefit at best.

I don't want this even longer for pandemic as major variants will getting worse. I don't want this happen now. I'm scared about new strains in the future. Mask mandate for trains, buses and planes WILL be more LONGER for YEARS! NOOOOOOO!!!
I just want go back to normal as possible by Spring 2022 as the pandemic will be over soon as the cases will be low as by Spring 2022 / Summer 2022. @DisneyCane GET VACCIANTED YOU STUPID PEOPLE OR THE NEW VARIANTS WILL GET WORSE BY NEXT YEAR!

 

[correcaminos]

It was never really in the low category. The data was all messed up over Thanksgiving weekend. The map showed low but if you clicked on it the data showed 0 cases in the seven day period which was obviously not correct.

The period of the wave seems to be around 5 months in a minimal mitigation, medium vaccination state so whatever the next FL peak will be will likely occur in mid January. The level of the peak will hopefully be much lower than the last one.

This is going to continue for at least another year or two and likely longer with major variants like Omicron (not sure why they don't call it a strain with so many mutations). Get vaccinated if you want to protect yourself and drop the mitigations that provide minimal benefit at best.

It doesn't have to continue. Get all vaccinated who can - not this if you want protection mentality. Until people really vaccinate it will continue until the virus burns itself out. People suck though so thanks to them I'm stuck inside doing volunteer work right now because unmasked is not allowed. Though some continually ignore masking rules. I'm tired of it.

Being vague here about a friend who is in the ICU for an infection along with kidney stones. Why ICU? Because no beds were available where they went and went into sepsis and thus a lowered BP. Will recover but for goodness sake stop pushing for no masks when we're sucking as a whole. My friend did not deserve an ICU stay thanks to unvaccinated selfish people (not the ones who cannot)

 

[Chip Chipperson]

It doesn't have to continue. Get all vaccinated who can - not this if you want protection mentality. Until people really vaccinate it will continue until the virus burns itself out. People suck though so thanks to them I'm stuck inside doing volunteer work right now because unmasked is not allowed. Though some continually ignore masking rules. I'm tired of it.

Being vague here about a friend who is in the ICU for an infection along with kidney stones. Why ICU? Because no beds were available where they went and went into sepsis and thus a lowered BP. Will recover but for goodness sake stop pushing for no masks when we're sucking as a whole. My friend did not deserve an ICU stay thanks to unvaccinated selfish people (not the ones who cannot)

I can attest to this after spending last week at WDW. There was an entire side of a monorail car unmasked as soon as they stepped on the train until they stepped off at Poly. There were people stepping off the monorail at the Contemporary with their masks in their hand, just looking around to see if anyone would make them put it on.

There was a family outside of Jambo House one night as my wife and I walked in to pick up a mobile order from the Mara. The wife and kids were masked. She reminded her husband that he needed to put his mask on before going inside and he said, "No thanks, I quit." She apparently didn't think he heard her correctly because she repeated herself and he told her that he understood what she said but he was "done with masks." She told him, "They're going to yell at you if you go inside without a mask." His answer? "I know." Imagine going to WDW with your family, knowing the mask rules when you book the trip (or agree to go with your family), and deciding, "I'll go, but I'm going to make it an unpleasant and awkward experience for my family and make the Cast Members' jobs harder by daring them to confront me about my blatant disregard for the rules in place - and possibly get my family kicked out over my refusal to wear a mask indoors."

Even at the airport, a very large number of people on our flight were either wearing their masks with their noses out or pulling them down to their chin. One kid was even chewing on his (tied for the grossest misuse of a mask with the People Mover CM who rubbed his mask into his eyes multiple times while waiting to let more people up the ramp ). Once people boarded the plane, they seemed to comply because the flight crew made them. There was only 1 guy who just walked on without a mask and I thought he was going to be the reason we were delayed even more than the hour we ended up being late, but the on-board announcement that they would be happy to assist anyone with making alternate travel arrangements if they're uncomfortable wearing a mask seemed to get him to comply with the rule.

 

[DisneyFan32]

MSN

Oh snap. Here we go again, this just like end of the world predictions.

Anyways, next:

MSN

As a new indoor vaccine-or-mask mandate takes effect in New York state to battle upticks in COVID-19, Gov. Phil Murphy suggested Monday that neighboring New Jersey does not plan to order a similar policy, though he also didn’t rule it out.


“Every option is on the table at the moment,” Murphy said during his latest coronavirus briefing in Trenton. “We think what we’ve got in place meets the moment, in terms of masking and what New York is doing. But obviously, all options stay on the table.”

Starting Monday, customers and employees will be required to wear masks in all indoor public businesses or venues in New York state unless those places implement a vaccine requirement for entry. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul made the move as COVID-19 numbers rise in the Empire State and as the new omicron variant of the virus spreads during the winter and holiday season, when people spend more time indoors and gathered together.

Businesses that don’t enforce the mandate could receive a $1,000 fine.

The rules will last until Jan. 15. After that, New York officials will re-evaluate them based on how the state is faring.

In addition, Philadelphia announced Monday that people will need to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to dine indoors at bars, restaurants, indoor sporting events, and other food-related establishments in the city starting Jan. 3. City Public Health Director Cheryl Bettigole said Philadelphia has seen infection rates double in the last few weeks and hospitalizations increase by about 50%.

New York City has a similar requirement.

Murphy has so far resisted statewide COVID-19 vaccine mandates for restaurants and other businesses in New Jersey.

CORONAVIRUS RESOURCES: Live map tracker | Newsletter| Homepage

The governor also lifted New Jersey’s indoor mask mandate in May as the pandemic waned in the state — though masks are still required in schools, on mass transit, and in state government buildings.

But COVID-19 numbers have been steadily rising in New Jersey, as well, especially in the wake of Thanksgiving. The state on Monday reported another 11 confirmed deaths and 2,968 confirmed cases.

The state’s seven-day average for new positive tests increased to 3,720, up 20% from a week ago and 196% from a month ago. And statewide hospitalizations have increased 140% in the last month.

Murphy, who was re-elected last month, appeared leery in recent months to endorse more coronavirus restrictions as he sought a second term. The Democrat was asked Monday if he plans a “bait-and-switch” now that the election is over.

He said officials would be “abrogating our responsibility if we didn’t say” all options remain on the table.

“Every time you think you’ve got this thing figured out, it takes a turn, and eight out of 10 of those turns are negative,” Murphy said. “But this doesn’t mean there’s any bait and switch. We’re gonna call this as we see it.”

But, he said, “at this moment, I don’t see any shift of any significance” in the state’s restrictions.

Murphy, a Democrat, ended the state’s public health emergency in June but signed a law allowing his administration some powers to keep managing the pandemic. Those expire Jan. 11 under that law.

The governor could ask the Democratic-controlled state Legislature for an extension of those powers. Asked Monday whether that will happen, Murphy said he had a “good meeting” last week with legislative leaders, during which they had a “general discussion about what we think we’re gonna need to do in terms of public health, executive orders, etc.”

“We need resolutions from the Legislature to take certain steps,” he said. “So we’re not quite there yet, but it was a very constructive discussion.”

That law prevents Murphy from installing mask restrictions that go beyond guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control unless there’s a major uptick in the state’s COVID-19 numbers.

The CDC currently recommends all people in high transmission counties wear masks for indoor public settings regardless of vaccination status. All of New Jersey’s 21 counties are currently listed as having “high” rates of coronavirus transmission, according to the agency.

^ I don't want to wear mask anymore because I'm vaccinated.

 

[Ayla]

I can attest to this after spending last week at WDW. There was an entire side of a monorail car unmasked as soon as they stepped on the train until they stepped off at Poly. There were people stepping off the monorail at the Contemporary with their masks in their hand, just looking around to see if anyone would make them put it on.

There was a family outside of Jambo House one night as my wife and I walked in to pick up a mobile order from the Mara. The wife and kids were masked. She reminded her husband that he needed to put his mask on before going inside and he said, "No thanks, I quit." She apparently didn't think he heard her correctly because she repeated herself and he told her that he understood what she said but he was "done with masks." She told him, "They're going to yell at you if you go inside without a mask." His answer? "I know." Imagine going to WDW with your family, knowing the mask rules when you book the trip (or agree to go with your family), and deciding, "I'll go, but I'm going to make it an unpleasant and awkward experience for my family and make the Cast Members' jobs harder by daring them to confront me about my blatant disregard for the rules in place - and possibly get my family kicked out over my refusal to wear a mask indoors."

Even at the airport, a very large number of people on our flight were either wearing their masks with their noses out or pulling them down to their chin. One kid was even chewing on his (tied for the grossest misuse of a mask with the People Mover CM who rubbed his mask into his eyes multiple times while waiting to let more people up the ramp ). Once people boarded the plane, they seemed to comply because the flight crew made them. There was only 1 guy who just walked on without a mask and I thought he was going to be the reason we were delayed even more than the hour we ended up being late, but the on-board announcement that they would be happy to assist anyone with making alternate travel arrangements if they're uncomfortable wearing a mask seemed to get him to comply with the rule.

My angry face is not towards you, it's towards the idiots who are doing everything they possibly can to make this as difficult as possible for everyone else.

 

[DisneyCane]

I think we have different definitions of minimal. Especially compared to the cost vs benefit of a particular mitigation.

Missouri health department found mask mandates work, but didn’t make findings public

Jurisdictions with mask mandates averaged 15.8 cases per day for every 100,000 residents, compared to 21.7 in unmasked communities.

news.stlpublicradio.org

An over 5 point swing seems larger than minimal. When spread is higher, that swing translates to a huge raw number. If spread was low enough, say already under 8/100K, it may not have the same impact and actually be minimal.

Beyond masking, is anyone really doing any other mitigations anymore? Maybe a little distance in restaurants. But, I have noticed anything else still ongoing, and nothing is closed at all, at least where I am.

Unless the study corrects for different vaccination rates this conclusion of a 5 per 100k improvement can't be drawn. The counties mentioned in the article are at the high end of vaccination rates in Missouri. I think it is widely accepted that a higher vaccination rate will lead to less spread, at least pre-Omicron. Since this data was for the Delta surge, it is definitely pre-Omicron.

It doesn't have to continue. Get all vaccinated who can - not this if you want protection mentality. Until people really vaccinate it will continue until the virus burns itself out. People suck though so thanks to them I'm stuck inside doing volunteer work right now because unmasked is not allowed. Though some continually ignore masking rules. I'm tired of it.

Being vague here about a friend who is in the ICU for an infection along with kidney stones. Why ICU? Because no beds were available where they went and went into sepsis and thus a lowered BP. Will recover but for goodness sake stop pushing for no masks when we're sucking as a whole. My friend did not deserve an ICU stay thanks to unvaccinated selfish people (not the ones who cannot)

Vermont: 87.3% of the population with at least one dose, 75.4% of the population fully vaccinated, 42.1% of those boosted (31.7% of the population). Cases per 100k for past 7 days - 503.7.

It seems to me that spread will continue to occur regardless of vaccination uptake. In Vermont currently it seems that approximately 2.6 per 100k people are admitted to the hospital for COVID each day. When FL was in at the same level of cases per 100k during the Delta surge, there were about 6.88 per 100k being admitted to the hospital for COVID each day. It sure looks like the higher vaccination rate is much more effective at preventing serious illness than it is at slowing spread significantly. Therefore, in my opinion it is appropriate to say to get vaccinated to significantly reduce the chance that you end up with a serious case of COVID-19 if you are infected with SARS-CoV-2.

I push for no masks because they are annoying and uncomfortable to wear (for me and many others) and whatever benefit they provide is not high enough to justify forcing me (who is fully vaccinated and boosted) to wear one any time or anywhere.

 

[correcaminos]

Unless the study corrects for different vaccination rates this conclusion of a 5 per 100k improvement can't be drawn. The counties mentioned in the article are at the high end of vaccination rates in Missouri. I think it is widely accepted that a higher vaccination rate will lead to less spread, at least pre-Omicron. Since this data was for the Delta surge, it is definitely pre-Omicron.

Vermont: 87.3% of the population with at least one dose, 75.4% of the population fully vaccinated, 42.1% of those boosted (31.7% of the population). Cases per 100k for past 7 days - 503.7.

It seems to me that spread will continue to occur regardless of vaccination uptake. In Vermont currently it seems that approximately 2.6 per 100k people are admitted to the hospital for COVID each day. When FL was in at the same level of cases per 100k during the Delta surge, there were about 6.88 per 100k being admitted to the hospital for COVID each day. It sure looks like the higher vaccination rate is much more effective at preventing serious illness than it is at slowing spread significantly. Therefore, in my opinion it is appropriate to say to get vaccinated to significantly reduce the chance that you end up with a serious case of COVID-19 if you are infected with SARS-CoV-2.

I push for no masks because they are annoying and uncomfortable to wear (for me and many others) and whatever benefit they provide is not high enough to justify forcing me (who is fully vaccinated and boosted) to wear one any time or anywhere.

I'm sorry but what the heck does Vermont have to do with anything I wrote about? I'm not in Vermont and out vaccination rates in my state in some counties are deplorable - less than 20%. You know what happens with that? Their hospitals get overwhelmed and send some down to here which is better but not great. So how about this? When someone says their friend is in the ICU because beds were not available thanks to unvaccinated, you not lecture on how you think you are right about things using a state that is absolutely not the norm.

Getting vaccinated reduces spread and severity. Not just severity. Masks do help reduce spread. Don't really give a flip if people are boosted or not, how are we supposed to know when someone walks in if they are? I had to wear mine in my office which shares air circulation with the main sanctuary today because some freaking jerks come to pray and ignore the "Please wear a mask sign". I'm allowed to take mine off if no one is around or masked. So I get to suffer for jerks as a volunteer doing good things for the church. Sorry not really in the mood to argue about why you think it is okay diminish covid and mitigations with you today.

My friend is in ICU thanks to selfish people as a whole and I had to mask for the same damn reason today. So sick of it - and I've been vaccinated and boosted long before most people here. I want to say screw you all but then I look at my friend in the ICU and cannot.

 

[correcaminos]

I can attest to this after spending last week at WDW. There was an entire side of a monorail car unmasked as soon as they stepped on the train until they stepped off at Poly. There were people stepping off the monorail at the Contemporary with their masks in their hand, just looking around to see if anyone would make them put it on.

There was a family outside of Jambo House one night as my wife and I walked in to pick up a mobile order from the Mara. The wife and kids were masked. She reminded her husband that he needed to put his mask on before going inside and he said, "No thanks, I quit." She apparently didn't think he heard her correctly because she repeated herself and he told her that he understood what she said but he was "done with masks." She told him, "They're going to yell at you if you go inside without a mask." His answer? "I know." Imagine going to WDW with your family, knowing the mask rules when you book the trip (or agree to go with your family), and deciding, "I'll go, but I'm going to make it an unpleasant and awkward experience for my family and make the Cast Members' jobs harder by daring them to confront me about my blatant disregard for the rules in place - and possibly get my family kicked out over my refusal to wear a mask indoors."

Even at the airport, a very large number of people on our flight were either wearing their masks with their noses out or pulling them down to their chin. One kid was even chewing on his (tied for the grossest misuse of a mask with the People Mover CM who rubbed his mask into his eyes multiple times while waiting to let more people up the ramp ). Once people boarded the plane, they seemed to comply because the flight crew made them. There was only 1 guy who just walked on without a mask and I thought he was going to be the reason we were delayed even more than the hour we ended up being late, but the on-board announcement that they would be happy to assist anyone with making alternate travel arrangements if they're uncomfortable wearing a mask seemed to get him to comply with the rule.

I've been in June and November and as a whole inside people were doing okay. I don't get snotty about hallways to/from rooms tbh because I've forgotten to put on too at times. I saw a few just doing chin guards but not that many even in November.

My thought is if you cannot follow rules, don't go. My flight home in November I saw a family totally ignoring masks as a whole. Except one - who removed it every time they coughed and sneezed without even covering their mouth - which was a ton! So gross pandemic or not.

I hate masks as much as the next person and they truly cause pain on scar tissue I have on my face/ear but I still buck up and wear. I wish people would stop being such babies about it.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Hospitals are still overloaded in many areas.

It would be good for the COVID data followers, number watchers, to show graphs and charts showing how the Hospitals are doing.
Again, we are relying on accurate data collection and reporting here too.

My local Hospitals seem to be doing fine at the moment.

For areas that did not have enough Hospital beds for their populations before the pandemic I suspect would be even more stressed than before.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

I've been in June and November and as a whole inside people were doing okay. I don't get snotty about hallways to/from rooms tbh because I've forgotten to put on too at times. I saw a few just doing chin guards but not that many even in November.

My thought is if you cannot follow rules, don't go. My flight home in November I saw a family totally ignoring masks as a whole. Except one - who removed it every time they coughed and sneezed without even covering their mouth - which was a ton! So gross pandemic or not.

I hate masks as much as the next person and they truly cause pain on scar tissue I have on my face/ear but I still buck up and wear. I wish people would stop being such babies about it.

I agree. I'd estimate about 95% compliance indoors during my stay. I did forget once when going back to our room. We had been at the pool and I had put my mask inside a Ziploc bag in my backpack. My wife an I were the only ones on the elevator and for a moment I felt so normal again that I forgot to get the mask out until I stepped off the elevator and into the hallway. Fortunately, nobody else was in the hallway and our room was just 2 doors down from the elevator so I made it to the room quicker than I would have gotten the mask out and on my face (thanks to being tall and having a long stride). I saw a few others who caught themselves the same way and had that sudden realization of, "Oh no! I didn't put my mask on" look on their faces. The people who give dirty looks to people who are wearing them or roll their eyes and huff and puff when told to wear theirs are the ones I have no patience for anymore. So many people boarding our flight home looked like their parents just told them they had to finish their homework before they could play video games when the flight attendants told them to pull up their masks. Meanwhile, a father carrying a toddler and a suitcase had his mask slip just slightly below his nose as he was boarding the plane. The flight attendant saw his predicament and just politely said, "when you get seated and have a second, please remember to pull up your mask." He didn't roll his eyes or pout. He just somehow managed to use one of his hands to pull up his mask as he kept walking rather than waiting until he got to his seat - and didn't even drop the kid!

 

[mmascari]

Vermont: 87.3% of the population with at least one dose, 75.4% of the population fully vaccinated, 42.1% of those boosted (31.7% of the population). Cases per 100k for past 7 days - 503.7.

We've known 70% or even 75% isn't enough for months. It's probably 85% or over 90%. It's not a linear relationship, before the tipping point, it's not going to look very effective. So, VT is still well short of 85% fully vaccinated to tip over the impact. VT is also so small, it just barely has over 6 buckets of 100K people. The metric breaks down and is misleading at that level. A single family going on a trip and returning infected can move the metric an entire 1/100K in VT. To do that in FL, the family needs to have 200+ people.

It seems to me that spread will continue to occur regardless of vaccination uptake.
...
I push for no masks because they are annoying and uncomfortable to wear (for me and many others) and whatever benefit they provide is not high enough to justify forcing me (who is fully vaccinated and boosted) to wear one any time or anywhere.

So, you're in the "the vaccine isn't going to reduce spread, and unwilling to do anything else that will reduce spread because it's annoying and uncomfortable too" position?

That's a bold stance, to be for spreading an infectious disease.

 

[DisneyCane]

We've known 70% or even 75% isn't enough for months. It's probably 85% or over 90%. It's not a linear relationship, before the tipping point, it's not going to look very effective. So, VT is still well short of 85% fully vaccinated to tip over the impact. VT is also so small, it just barely has over 6 buckets of 100K people. The metric breaks down and is misleading at that level. A single family going on a trip and returning infected can move the metric an entire 1/100K in VT. To do that in FL, the family needs to have 200+ people.


So, you're in the "the vaccine isn't going to reduce spread, and unwilling to do anything else that will reduce spread because it's annoying and uncomfortable too" position?

That's a bold stance, to be for spreading an infectious disease.

We'll speak about Vermont again in a few weeks when it gets to around 90% fully vaccinated. I'm sure it isn't linear but there should be a noticeable effect at least as a geographic area gets close to the tipping point. VT is at 84% of 18+ fully vaccinated (46.1% of those with a booster dose) so something should be noticeable with respect to reduced spread.

I would define my position as the vaccine is very effective at preventing those who are vaccinated from having any serious complications so I'm unwilling to do anything to try to protect those who have chosen not to be vaccinated given that the only age group that can't be vaccinated has an infinitesimal chance of a serious complication.

For other infectious diseases, it is incumbent upon each individual to reduce their own risk. Everything from STDs (using protection) to the flu (get your flu shot for personal benefit) is treated that way. Should HIV PREP be mandatory for all? Making it so would definitely reduce the spread of HIV and, if done worldwide eventually eradicate it.

 

[DisneyFan32]

MSN

Oh snap. Here we go again, this just like end of the world predictions.

Anyways, next:

MSN

As a new indoor vaccine-or-mask mandate takes effect in New York state to battle upticks in COVID-19, Gov. Phil Murphy suggested Monday that neighboring New Jersey does not plan to order a similar policy, though he also didn’t rule it out.


“Every option is on the table at the moment,” Murphy said during his latest coronavirus briefing in Trenton. “We think what we’ve got in place meets the moment, in terms of masking and what New York is doing. But obviously, all options stay on the table.”

Starting Monday, customers and employees will be required to wear masks in all indoor public businesses or venues in New York state unless those places implement a vaccine requirement for entry. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul made the move as COVID-19 numbers rise in the Empire State and as the new omicron variant of the virus spreads during the winter and holiday season, when people spend more time indoors and gathered together.

Businesses that don’t enforce the mandate could receive a $1,000 fine.

The rules will last until Jan. 15. After that, New York officials will re-evaluate them based on how the state is faring.

In addition, Philadelphia announced Monday that people will need to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to dine indoors at bars, restaurants, indoor sporting events, and other food-related establishments in the city starting Jan. 3. City Public Health Director Cheryl Bettigole said Philadelphia has seen infection rates double in the last few weeks and hospitalizations increase by about 50%.

New York City has a similar requirement.

Murphy has so far resisted statewide COVID-19 vaccine mandates for restaurants and other businesses in New Jersey.

CORONAVIRUS RESOURCES: Live map tracker | Newsletter| Homepage

The governor also lifted New Jersey’s indoor mask mandate in May as the pandemic waned in the state — though masks are still required in schools, on mass transit, and in state government buildings.

But COVID-19 numbers have been steadily rising in New Jersey, as well, especially in the wake of Thanksgiving. The state on Monday reported another 11 confirmed deaths and 2,968 confirmed cases.

The state’s seven-day average for new positive tests increased to 3,720, up 20% from a week ago and 196% from a month ago. And statewide hospitalizations have increased 140% in the last month.

Murphy, who was re-elected last month, appeared leery in recent months to endorse more coronavirus restrictions as he sought a second term. The Democrat was asked Monday if he plans a “bait-and-switch” now that the election is over.

He said officials would be “abrogating our responsibility if we didn’t say” all options remain on the table.

“Every time you think you’ve got this thing figured out, it takes a turn, and eight out of 10 of those turns are negative,” Murphy said. “But this doesn’t mean there’s any bait and switch. We’re gonna call this as we see it.”

But, he said, “at this moment, I don’t see any shift of any significance” in the state’s restrictions.

Murphy, a Democrat, ended the state’s public health emergency in June but signed a law allowing his administration some powers to keep managing the pandemic. Those expire Jan. 11 under that law.

The governor could ask the Democratic-controlled state Legislature for an extension of those powers. Asked Monday whether that will happen, Murphy said he had a “good meeting” last week with legislative leaders, during which they had a “general discussion about what we think we’re gonna need to do in terms of public health, executive orders, etc.”

“We need resolutions from the Legislature to take certain steps,” he said. “So we’re not quite there yet, but it was a very constructive discussion.”

That law prevents Murphy from installing mask restrictions that go beyond guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control unless there’s a major uptick in the state’s COVID-19 numbers.

The CDC currently recommends all people in high transmission counties wear masks for indoor public settings regardless of vaccination status. All of New Jersey’s 21 counties are currently listed as having “high” rates of coronavirus transmission, according to the agency.

^ I don't want to wear mask anymore because I'm vaccinated.

 

[mmascari]

We'll speak about Vermont again in a few weeks when it gets to around 90% fully vaccinated. I'm sure it isn't linear but there should be a noticeable effect at least as a geographic area gets close to the tipping point. VT is at 84% of 18+ fully vaccinated (46.1% of those with a booster dose) so something should be noticeable with respect to reduced spread.

For the pockets at the current rate, we would need to know how much interaction there is between local areas of higher and lower actual vaccination rates than just the state average.

Stopping the spread of COVID-19

Reaching herd immunity through vaccination

graphics.reuters.com

I went looking for a simulation. Scroll down to the bottom where you can input the Vaccination Rate, R0, and Vaccine Effectiveness and see what the picture looks like then.

I put in values of 80%, 5.5, and 80%. The simulation still shows quite the spread.
Put in 85%, 5.5, 80% and things tip over and change. It's stark difference in the graphic.

If you use 90%, 6, and 65%, it's quite depressing. Let's hope the boosted vaccine holds out more effective and doesn't need continual boosts to stay that way.

The article and simulation is from 8/21/2020, it's not breaking news.

 

[DisneyFan32]

MSN

The question on most people’s minds is when will the COVID-19 pandemic end? Well, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has a new prediction.

Walensky told ABC News that the pandemic will end when the country sees a huge drop in deaths per day and when hospitals aren’t packed with patients.

• “We’ve gotten pretty cavalier about 1,100 deaths a day,” she said.
• “That’s an extraordinary amount of deaths in a single day from this disease,” Walensky said. “We can’t — I can’t — be in a position where that is OK.”

The pandemic, she said, will eventually end. And that will mean that we can drop the face masks from our culture, too.

• “Masks are for now, they’re not forever,” Walensky told ABC News. “We have to find a way to be done with them.”

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, said during “Face the Nation” on CBS News in early November that the pandemic phase of the coronavirus outbreak was close to ending.

• “I think that we’re close to the end of the pandemic phase of this virus, and we’re going to enter a more endemic phase and as things improve, cases may pick up,” Gottlieb said.

But that was before the omicron variant emerged, worrying experts about what might be next in the coronavirus pandemic. Experts told The Sydney Morning Herald that the omicron variant could be less virulent and cause less severe outcomes — which has proven true so far — which might be a sign of the future of the pandemic.

• “The theory is that, if a less virulent strain becomes dominant, more people will become infected but fewer will be critically sick,” per The Sydney Morning Herald. “The virus, while still a problem, also becomes part of the solution; every person who recovers from a mild case is left with greater immunity against future infections than any of the current vaccines provide.”

 

[mmascari]

We'll speak about Vermont again in a few weeks when it gets to around 90% fully vaccinated.

Also, I wouldn't count on VT getting there in just a few weeks.

From the CDC.

They've been over 400K fully vaccinated since 6/10/2021 and are only at 470K now on 12/13/2021. That graph is super flat now, just like everywhere else. They are not some special unicorn of vaccination.

 

[DisneyCane]

Also, I wouldn't count on VT getting there in just a few weeks.

From the CDC.

They've been over 400K fully vaccinated since 6/10/2021 and are only at 470K now on 12/13/2021. That graph is super flat now, just like everywhere else. They are not some special unicorn of vaccination.

The single shot percentage is close to 90% (87% to be more precise) of the population. I am assuming that most of those get to fully vaccinated sometime soon.

 

[hopemax]

Frankly, from day one I never trusted the case numbers in either direction. I think case numbers are worthless.
We know there are countless reporting errors; missing days, days, weeks counted twice, so many data collecting, reporting errors.

Plus, how many got it and had no symptoms, mild or even severe symptoms, got through it at home and were never tested and therefore never counted.

To me, the only measure of any value is the Emergency Room capacity and the open beds in the hospitals.

The original two week shutdown was to make sure hospitals were not overloaded.

The case numbers are an early warning sign for hospital capacity. If people really cared about overwhelming hospital capacity they wouldn’t be comfortable letting case numbers spike. It takes 2-3 weeks for cases to progress to serious enough to need hospital care. If you wait until hospitals are approaching full before doing anything… then for the hospitals the next 2-3 weeks after that will be bad. The patients showing up in that window will have gotten sick before anyone had concerns. The two function as an “If Then” statement. The variable, the percentage that move from one to the other has changed. But the number of immunity naive + vulnerable w/immunity is still high enough that even under these new conditions it can overwhelm bed space. You can write all of this out as if it were programming logic.

Do people not want early warning systems? Do people not believe the underlying math again?

Or are people saying they still care about hospitals because it looks bad to admit you don’t, but they really don’t care?

 

[Ayla]

It would be good for the COVID data followers, number watchers, to show graphs and charts showing how the Hospitals are doing.
Again, we are relying on accurate data collection and reporting here too.

My local Hospitals seem to be doing fine at the moment.

For areas that did not have enough Hospital beds for their populations before the pandemic I suspect would be even more stressed than before.

Mine aren't, as I posted earlier in the thread.

Why does it have to turn into a ing contest?

 

[DisneyFan32]

Netflix Eyes New Jersey For New Film Studio

Netflix said it seeks to turn a 298-acre space on the abandoned U.S. Army base in Oceanport into a film studio. But no bids are in yet.

patch.com

By next month if Netflix can deal with its bids by January 31st 2022. Then the movie studio will be built as possible.