Danissmart
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
I would like you to prove your assertation
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
My medical board is not a state board to clarify. My health boards in my state is what I was saying. They also were not lying. We saw it with our own eyes. Acting like something isn't true, doesn't mean you are correct or that your lie becomes the truth.
I'm hoping we climb... (vaccines that is). We have been so flat for a long time.
So I guess the CDC is also lying from their news release:
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
I check our state rates a few times a week and it’s surprising that we are still averaging about 10,000 vaccinations a day. (Up a little more now but that’s due to boosters). We maxed out at about 25,000 a day in April.
I’d love to know what finally convinces people who have held out for 6 months to get the vaccine, if it’s just a higher comfort level as more time has elapsed, work mandate, someone they know suffered a bad case, etc.
Had we maintained 10,000 more vaccinations a day we could have had another 1.8 million vaccinations in arms in a state of 3 million, we’d be at essentially 100%. (We are currently at 61% over age 5)
Look at the chart below. The current wave is powered by the unvaccinated. The vaccinated do get 'breakthroughs.' But they are way more protected from hospitalizations and death than the unvaccinated. And they transmit it less... mostly from not getting it at all less, but also their window of being contagious is smaller.
Now, imagine if everyone was vaccinated. Rather than a big wave powered by the unvaxinated, you'd have a weak swell of breakthroughs. Vaccinated breakthroughs infect others less, so, the number of breakthroughs also drops. Less and less people get infected until it dies out.
We don't need transmission among the vaccinated to get to zero. As each breakthrough infects less and less, that is enough. Otherwise, how could any previous wavy have ever subsided? With everyone vaccinated, the case rate continually drops.
Presumably, that equation is based on vaccination and doing nothing else. But, that's not how people behave, even in FL. Behaviors change, interactions change, group dynamics change. All things that impact the base rate of transmission. None of them are as durable as vaccination, since that's permanent and you don't have to keep doing it. Nobody makes a mistake and forgets to bring their vaccine status with them or thinks "it's just this once, it'll be fine".
Also, a ton of people were infected. Which also changes the dynamic and eliminates people who can get infected again, at least for a time.
All of those play out together. I assume some combination of them caused the Re in FL to drop.
Durability is the big difference. Keeping the vaccination percent high should be durable and keep the Re low. Without it, all those behaviors and group dynamics change. People react different when spread is lower. Drop their guard, think it's over. Prior infections will help for a while, until they aren't as durable either. Then it ramps back up.
That's the natural cycle you've talked about in many posts. It's not just some natural virus in isolation cycle. It's coupled with all those reactions too.
We need a durable mitigation that keeps the level low and isn't dependent on peoples day to day actions.
Cycles of peaks and valleys may get us there eventually. We've seen some studies on how much future protection past infection provides and for how long. But, has anyone done a study on what multiple infections provides? If someone had COVID, then got it again a year later (or 18 months or 2 years), do they have an enhanced protection that's stronger now and provides a more durable protection than a single infection? That would get us to the end too, it's just the long way there with lots left behind along the way.
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
To answer the question in your last paragraph, no, nobody has yet done that study. Probably because the disease hasn't been around long enough that you could reasonably assemble a large enough cohort of people to follow who have contracted COVID multiple times.
What we do have, though, is emergin evidence that prior infection provides less reliable immunity on a population basis than vaccination.
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Yup.
The studies on both if "the third COVID infection is the one that finally gives lasting protection or not" and "after the fourth booster, you're good for a decade instead of just a year, we finally think maybe" both suffer from the same basic issue.
I'll look forward to the possibility of reading both of those. (Not really, that would be depressing by then. Somebody bookmark this to check on when we get there.)
As I said earlier, arms out for boosters:
Top U.S. infectious disease official Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Tuesday the vast majority of Americans who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 should receive a booster shot, and that an additional dose could eventually become the country's standard for determining who is fully vaccinated.
Asked to quantify, he said, the "overwhelming majority" of Americans who have been fully vaccinated should now receive a COVID-19 booster shot based on data showing they provide "substantial" protection beyond what is seen from the original inoculation.
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www.reuters.com
Top U.S. infectious disease official Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Tuesday the vast majority of Americans who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 should receive a booster shot, and that an additional dose could eventually become the country's standard for determining who is fully vaccinated.
Asked to quantify, he said, the "overwhelming majority" of Americans who have been fully vaccinated should now receive a COVID-19 booster shot based on data showing they provide "substantial" protection beyond what is seen from the original inoculation.
Fauci says vast majority of vaccinated Americans should get a COVID-19 booster
Top U.S. infectious disease official Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Tuesday the vast majority of Americans who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 should receive a booster shot, and that an additional dose could eventually become the country's standard for determining who is fully vaccinated.
www.reuters.com
Living the Life
Member
What happened to the flu? Did it just disappear? Or could it be that the CDC's numbers for covid are in actuality a lot of flu numbers? Just a thought.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
Do you have any evidence for this thought?
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
They test for each. There was a flu outbreak in Michigan recently. Flu numbers globally were low due to mitigation. Covid numbers are not flu cases.
Chip Chipperson
Well-Known Member
The flu basically did "disappear" last flu season because people were masking up and not travelling as much - plus, there was very little international travel to bring the flu here since that virus tends to travel the world seasonally like a reverse Snow Bird. And no, the CDC's COVID-19 numbers aren't actually flu numbers. The test for COVID-19 identifies COVID-19. The test for the flu identifies the flu. You won't get a false positive result for COVID-19 when you actually have the flu, and vice versa.
No. The CDC numbers reflect positive Covid tests. Having the flu does not trigger a positive Covid test.
Flu cases decreased as Covid precautions also reduces incidences of the flu. Mask wearing reduces the flu!
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
Everything you've said is true. But not everyone is going to be vaccinated. That continues to be my point. It's not going to happen. Wish for it all you want. Where we are at with vaccinations in the United States is about where we are going to be. In fact, I think we'll slip a little as I don't think the rate of people getting boosters is going to match the first round. I'm not arguing that it *should* be that way. I'm just telling you that I believe with 100% certainty that it is going to be that way whether we like it or not. And that's why I keep saying it's time to just rip the Band-Aid off and move on. Because I honestly do not believe we have any other choice.
Then you can equally wish away masks, if Covid is still around in high numbers the we need to continue to mask. You’re engaging in the same magical thinking. So long as Covid continues to wreck havoc in high numbers we have to deal with it. It can’t be wished away, and until enough of the population realizes that so our politicians are willing to force people to do the one thing that makes it go away, we continue status quo ad infinitum. Welcome to the new world, sucks doesn’t it? Some of have been living on it for awhile.
The only other solution is an literal miracle (or if you aren’t theologically inclined highly unlikely random event) where the virus stops killing so many people.
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What does "rip the Band-Aid off and move on" actually mean?
What are we doing now that you want to stop doing?
What aren't we doing now that you want to start doing again?
Or, do you mean just accept that all the stuff we're doing or not today IS the new normal?
Assuming I pulled the CDC numbers correctly, between 10/22/21 and 11/22/21 there were 35,401 deaths. Assuming the vaccination rate had already flatlined and never increases again in any meaningful way and we keep doing exactly what we're doing today for other mitigations, multiply that out by 12 and it's 424,812 deaths a year, plus however many million "not dead" other impacts there are. Let's even be generous and assume we need to discount for all the people who had COVID and it's only 300,000 a year.
I mean, sure, people can become numb to anything, but it's going to be super disruptive to everything to keep that pace up for another year or years.
Using this assumption, let's say we stop doing every mitigation and everyone goes back to 2019 behaviors. Do we think that number is going to stay steady or go up? Cause, I'm guessing it would push it up.
(I don't think that's a valid assumption, I believe the vaccination rate will increase even if it's super slowly it will move up. May take years not months though. Which may be just as bad.)
I think that kind of means, we're at the new normal now. There's nothing to rip off or move on from. Just adjust, we're there. Masks, distance, mostly take out, whatever of those you're doing or not doing today, that's the new normal. If you're a business that depends on close packed, unmasked, in person patrons you'll just need to adjust that the consumer pool is smaller than it was in 2019. It's not gone, there's people that's fine with, just less than in 2019. No amount of wishing to move on will get everyone back to 2019 behaviors anymore than it will get them all vaccinated.
In the perspective of WDW, I think what we've seen is that even a smaller consumer pool is still large enough.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
This is how I feel also but I think vaccination rates will continue to climb. We just approved kids 5-12, another 12% of the population, and under 5 will be next which means another 8%. Even if their vax rates follow adult rates (60% on average) that’ll get most states near the 75% range. There are still also adults who are jumping on board for various reasons also.
We won’t really know whether the vaccines can end this until they are available to everyone. I don’t think we’ll ever get above 85% but I’m still optimistic the vaccines can get the job done even with only 75-80% onboard.
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