Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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mmascari

Well-Known Member
Kevin_W said:
Well, R0 for any variant has a great deal of variance. But the best estimates I've seen put the original strain at 2-3 and the Delta at 5-6.

The effective reproductive number, Re, is defined by Re = R0(1-x*v), where X is the % of population vaccinated and V is the vaccine effectiveness.

If we take R0=6 and look only at the vaccinated population (x=1), then if the vaccines are 90% efficient we get Re = 6(1-.95) = 0.3, a very good number. If vaccine efficacy has waned to 70%, we get Re = 6(1-.7) = 1.8, not so good.

Now, if we take only 75% of the population vaccinated at 70% we get Re = 6(1-(.75)(.7)) = 2.85. Pretty horrible. If boosters would get that back to 95% then we'd be up to Re = 6(1-(.75)(.95)) = 1.725, still not enough to control spread.
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I’m on my phone, but if I did this right.
If we get 91% vaccinated and the vaccine holds at 92% effective. Say after a booster hopefully it holds, maybe a fourth. Then, Re goes under 1 and Bob’s your uncle we hit the end.

Alternatively, we have to keep doing other mitigation to help the vaccine get us just under 1. What a pain.

Even small changes have an impact.
 
JoeCamel

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
mmascari said:
I’m on my phone, but if I did this right.
If we get 91% vaccinated and the vaccine holds at 92% effective. Say after a booster hopefully it holds, maybe a fourth. Then, Re goes under 1 and Bob’s your uncle we hit the end.

Alternatively, we have to keep doing other mitigation to help the vaccine get us just under 1. What a pain.

Even small changes have an impact.
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A butterfly flaps its wings.
It all helps
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
mmascari said:
I’m on my phone, but if I did this right.
If we get 91% vaccinated and the vaccine holds at 92% effective. Say after a booster hopefully it holds, maybe a fourth. Then, Re goes under 1 and Bob’s your uncle we hit the end.

Alternatively, we have to keep doing other mitigation to help the vaccine get us just under 1. What a pain.

Even small changes have an impact.
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The Re was under 1 for many weeks in FL. What caused that?
 
Nubs70

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
You do have a freedom to make a choice. Just like here in Ontario i chose to get vaccinated and now I get to go restaurants, concerts, sporting events and live life.
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Aquaitance in Chatham just got out of quarantine... 40, double vaxxed and still got the Rona.
 
correcaminos

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
There are a lot of viruses that have been around for a very long time that have not ended life on earth. This one doesn't have near the mortality rate to do so even without any vaccines, mitigation or treatments. Even if everybody on earth was infected under 1.5% of the population would die.
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SMH I give up explaining. I feel like you are arguing just to argue. Feel free to let it rip how India dealt with. I have a bit more patience and zero intention of that.

Nubs70 said:
Aquaitance in Chatham just got out of quarantine... 40, double vaxxed and still got the Rona.
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So what? What's your point? If it's to prove vaccines are useless, then you're wrong.
 
Tom P.

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
helenabear said:
SMH I give up explaining. I feel like you are arguing just to argue. Feel free to let it rip how India dealt with. I have a bit more patience and zero intention of that.


So what? What's your point? If it's to prove vaccines are useless, then you're wrong.
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Vaccines are not perfect. Vaccines are not useless. Both of those statements are true. I wish people could accept that both can be the case.

For me, personally, I am pro-vaccination -- I am fully vaccinated myself -- but I also don't believe that vaccines are going to "end" Covid. I just don't believe that, given the level of efficacy we are seeing from the vaccines, that you are going to ever get a high enough percentage of the population vaccinated to effectively stop Covid from transmitting in significant numbers. And, no, I don't think mandates or vaccine passports are going to get us there either. That's why I'm not interested in waiting until cases come down or vaccine rates go up or whatever to end mitigation measures and resume normal life. Because I just don't think it will happen.
 
correcaminos

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Tom P. said:
Vaccines are not perfect. Vaccines are not useless. Both of those statements are true. I wish people could accept that both can be the case.

For me, personally, I am pro-vaccination -- I am fully vaccinated myself -- but I also don't believe that vaccines are going to "end" Covid. I just don't believe that, given the level of efficacy we are seeing from the vaccines, that you are going to ever get a high enough percentage of the population vaccinated to effectively stop Covid from transmitting in significant numbers. And, no, I don't think mandates or vaccine passports are going to get us there either. That's why I'm not interested in waiting until cases come down or vaccine rates go up or whatever to end mitigation measures and resume normal life. Because I just don't think it will happen.
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No vaccine is ever perfect. Never have we had 100% but I refuse to accept these pathetic rates of 50-60% vaccinated as good enough for us to get back go normal. We have different levels of what we accept as okay. I need a few more things to happen before I am good with ripping the bandaid off for good. And in before someone says, I'm not moving goal posts further. We never hit my personal wish of vaccination levels to think that. I've seen enough friends in hospital jobs suffer. Let's promote vaccines as we await the Pfizer pill and hope we get closer to even 70% vaccinated. My state is not even close to that. Nor is my county. This nation has serious issues if we cannot get the vast majority to agree to do something.
 
Tom P.

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
helenabear said:
No vaccine is ever perfect. Never have we had 100% but I refuse to accept these pathetic rates of 50-60% vaccinated as good enough for us to get back go normal. We have different levels of what we accept as okay. I need a few more things to happen before I am good with ripping the bandaid off for good. And in before someone says, I'm not moving goal posts further. We never hit my personal wish of vaccination levels to think that. I've seen enough friends in hospital jobs suffer. Let's promote vaccines as we await the Pfizer pill and hope we get closer to even 70% vaccinated. My state is not even close to that. Nor is my county. This nation has serious issues if we cannot get the vast majority to agree to do something.
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I apologize, but I'm not sure if you're in the United States or not, which is where I am. I think we may eventually get to 70% fully vaccinated, but I think it will be a very slow, gradual slog to get there. I don't think we're going to see a big spike in vaccinations anymore. Right now, we're at 59.3% fully vaccinated and 69.2% with at least one dose.
 
BuddyThomas

BuddyThomas

Well-Known Member
Ugh, in other news, marching bands from all over the country (and I assume that includes the unvaccinated areas) have invaded NYC in advance of Thursday’s parade, and they’re all cramming onto the subways in giant groups, mostly maskless, including the chaperones, totally ignoring the rule that you have to wear a face covering to ride public transportation. God forbid a state they are visiting should impose on their free-dumbs in any way. We’re never getting out of this.
 
JoeCamel

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
BuddyThomas said:
Ugh, in other news, marching bands from all over the country (and I assume that includes the unvaccinated areas) have invaded NYC in advance of Thursday’s parade, and they’re all cramming onto the subways in giant groups, mostly maskless, including the chaperones, totally ignoring the rule that you have to wear a face covering to ride public transportation. God forbid a state they are visiting should impose on their free-dumbs in any way. We’re never getting out of this.
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Relax, we get out of this when they all get sick and die or not
 
correcaminos

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Tom P. said:
I apologize, but I'm not sure if you're in the United States or not, which is where I am. I think we may eventually get to 70% fully vaccinated, but I think it will be a very slow, gradual slog to get there. I don't think we're going to see a big spike in vaccinations anymore. Right now, we're at 59.3% fully vaccinated and 69.2% with at least one dose.
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I'm in the US, Ohio specifically. My state is below average with 57.9% with one dose and 52.8% fully. That's pretty pathetic when you realize 50% with one dose was back in the beginning of Aug. I have seen a small uptick in my state but I'm sure it has to do with mandates. I don't want to mandate but when your state has counties with vaccination rates below 20% - and I'm not joking - your sense of hope diminishes

www.the-daily-record.com

Health commissioner doesn't believe Holmes County has lowest vaccine rate in the country

As the holidays approach, Holmes County vaccination rate is lowest in Ohio at around 18%
www.the-daily-record.com
 
Danissmart

Danissmart

Member
mmascari said:
If we get 91% vaccinated and the vaccine holds at 92% effective. Say after a booster hopefully it holds, maybe a fourth. Then, Re goes under 1 and Bob’s your uncle we hit the end.

Alternatively, we have to keep doing other mitigation to help the vaccine get us just under 1. What a pain.

Even small changes have an impact.
Click to expand...
Lol. No shot on earth this happens. This is the flu shot for Covid. It’s never getting near 90%
 
JoeCamel

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
helenabear said:
I'm in the US, Ohio specifically. My state is below average with 57.9% with one dose and 52.8% fully. That's pretty pathetic when you realize 50% with one dose was back in the beginning of Aug. I have seen a small uptick in my state but I'm sure it has to do with mandates. I don't want to mandate but when your state has counties with vaccination rates below 20% - and I'm not joking - your sense of hope diminishes

www.the-daily-record.com

Health commissioner doesn't believe Holmes County has lowest vaccine rate in the country

As the holidays approach, Holmes County vaccination rate is lowest in Ohio at around 18%
www.the-daily-record.com
Click to expand...
Hey, east TN waving at you. Check these numbers and climbing 50% week over week. See you in the spring
 
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