correcaminos
Well-Known Member
This attitude honestly only prolongs when people decide masking and vaccination won't help when hearing it. No, this will not be this way forever.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Even if 100% of people get vaccinated and keep up with all recommended boosters COVID will not go away. It would keep serious illness and deaths pretty low but COVID zero is not going to happen for many years if at all.
Nobody should decide that vaccination won't help because it does help. The other topic I'm not touching.
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
Putting "masking" and "vaccination" in the same sentence should be illegal at this point. I would support an exception to the First Amendment. Masking is not getting us out of this mess. We need to focus solely on vaccinations. Any other "mitigations" need to go the way of the dinosaur at this point. One simple, solid message: Vaccinations. Period.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
No, this is just you more of you ignoring information you don’t like. The transmission is not equal between vaccinated and unvaccinated as has been shown repeatedly.
What makes you think that if 100% (or 99%, 98%, hopefully 90%, maybe 85% but who knows) of people were vaccinated that it wouldn't drive COVID transmission into the floor?
It would definitely still pop up here and there, as people from outside whatever that bubble is interact with them. But, if the bubble is big enough, those pop ups should be very small. For pop ups of breakthrough cases, they should infect less and less people. As long as it's less than 1 each, it'll fade out. At risk, unable to vaccinate, other vulnerable people will bear the brunt of those pop ups then the most.
Clearly, world wide, that's a different issue. But, then there's lots of stuff that's still an issue world wide and not in the US because of vaccination. I'll accept that. Need to start somewhere, might as well be here.
Every mitigation that's not vaccination is basically a slowing function and not a solution. Short term tactical solutions, not long term strategy. A way to gain time to get vaccination done. That's still true today.
If only we could get the vaccination done. Then nobody would need to talk about any others any more. At least until the next new virus.
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
You are correct that the transmission is not equal. But the transmission among the vaccinated is also not zero. So what makes you think that even if we got to 100% vaccination (which never happens with any vaccine) that we would eliminate Covid?
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Once again, vaccinated persons becoming infected and contagious is not unique to COVID-19. The measles outbreak at Disneyland included vaccinated individuals and yet measles (which is more contagious) has been eliminated in the US. The reason measles outbreaks don’t just turn endemic even though there can be breakthrough cases is because there just aren’t enough places for it to go.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I didn't say it was equal. However, transmission among the vaccinated happens enough that it will keep the virus circulating. Look at the vaccination rates of various states and countries that are having a pretty big wave at the moment.
Feel free to keep your head in the sand and believe that what is happening isn't happening. COVID zero or near zero is not attainable. What is attainable is keeping serious illness and death from COVID at much lower levels by vaccination.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
The reason measles outbreaks don't turn endemic is because the measles vaccine in 97% effective combined with almost everybody having one. The COVID vaccines have not demonstrated high enough efficacy vs. infection and spread to think the same fate awaits this virus.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
You’ve already admitted you are too afraid to handle visible reminders of the pandemic. Over and over again you push whatever can stop those reminders regardless of their factual basis. So just can it with the tough guy act that you’re just accepting reality. There are still plenty of people who are unvaccinated and driving the spread as has been explained repeatedly.
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It doesn't have to be 0. I mean, if it was that would be great, but it doesn't have to be.
I tried to google it, but I'm not finding any measure for the R0 rate of Delta measured in vaccinated populations.
The math is simple though.
If there are 1,000 infected people today. If statistically, each of them infects 1 person, after 7 generations of infections we'll still have 1,000 infected people. Give or take, since it's statistics and an outlier super spreader could push the bounds some, 1000 is a small data set.
If it was 3 people, that 1,000 leads to over 2 million after 7 generations. That super exponential spike we see with the steep slope up.
If it's 0.9 though, its' only 478 after 7 generations. That's clearly not 0, but it's half as many as when we started.
If it's 0.4, it's only 2 after 7 generations.
If it's 0.99, then 932 after 7 generations.
If it's 0.999, then 993 after 7 generations.
We don't need the vaccine to eliminate all transmission. It just needs to get the number of new infections per person down to less than 1. Even just barely less than one and it will drive down cases. Obviously, the lower the value the faster it happens, but any amount below one and it happens.
That's the reason more than the efficacy of the vaccine.
Measles is way more infectious than COVID too.
We might still need measles vaccine level of vaccination to overcome if the COVID vaccine is less effective. We'll find out when we get there. But, it's the "almost everybody having one" that really keeps a pop up outbreak from becoming a pandemic.
And, I know, I know. "We'll never get the COVID vaccination rate as high as the measles vaccination rate." That's probably wrong too. What might be right is that it takes us 10 or 15 years to get it that high. In the meantime we can all argue about why it's taking that long instead of being done in 12-18 months as was possible. When our kids have kids and they're all vaccinated for COVID before starting kindergarten they'll curse out our generation for stealing much of their youth by not stepping up and getting it done in 18 months.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Tough guy act? I'm speaking the truth based on what is occurring around the world. I never said I was "afraid" to handle visible reminders. I said that seeing people wearing masks makes me anxious because it makes me feel like I'm in an infectious disease ward and looks like everybody is infected with somethin. I was explaining that it gives me the opposite reaction from those of you who feel "safe" because people are masking.
I also think they look goofy and make it more difficult to communicate with people.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
These are coal miners. They dressed fancy back then...
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Not surprised. We saw a similar pattern during the summer/fall when the south surged. Delta is a B.
U.S. pediatricians say Covid cases in children are on the rise. (Published 2021)
Cases in children in the United States have risen by 32 percent from about two weeks ago, amid a rush to inoculate children ahead of the winter holiday season.www.nytimes.com
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Well, R0 for any variant has a great deal of variance. But the best estimates I've seen put the original strain at 2-3 and the Delta at 5-6.
The effective reproductive number, Re, is defined by Re = R0(1-x*v), where X is the % of population vaccinated and V is the vaccine effectiveness.
If we take R0=6 and look only at the vaccinated population (x=1), then if the vaccines are 90% efficient we get Re = 6(1-.95) = 0.3, a very good number. If vaccine efficacy has waned to 70%, we get Re = 6(1-.7) = 1.8, not so good.
Now, if we take only 75% of the population vaccinated at 70% we get Re = 6(1-(.75)(.7)) = 2.85. Pretty horrible. If boosters would get that back to 95% then we'd be up to Re = 6(1-(.75)(.95)) = 1.725, still not enough to control spread.
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
So to summarize, everyone (95%) needs to get vaccinated in a very short time span to have a logical chance of getting this to burn out?
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure I follow. My state health boards have shown significant difference in outbreaks with masked students and not. Thats currently is our only option for kids at the moment as we are vaccinating. I was speaking for past too when vaccines weren't around as well. So until all can be vaccinated I don't agree and find the illegal comment over the top. Spoken as one who hates masks for everything beyond keeping my face warm in the winter - it was 25 when I was out, those cloth suckers help!
Sigh yeah no, that's not what happens. Sadly we'll never come close to even 80% globally to see effects. But even sans vaccines this won't go on forever. Seriously people who believe that baffle me. It would literally have to be the virus to end life on earth to be what you are implying.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Just over 25% of all of my local cases come from 5-11 year olds. It's roughly 7% of our population in that demographic. Teens are lowest right now with young adults oddly much higher.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
There are a lot of viruses that have been around for a very long time that have not ended life on earth. This one doesn't have near the mortality rate to do so even without any vaccines, mitigation or treatments. Even if everybody on earth was infected under 1.5% of the population would die.
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