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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

Chip Chipperson

Well-Known Member
What happened to the flu? Did it just disappear? Or could it be that the CDC's numbers for covid are in actuality a lot of flu numbers? Just a thought.

The flu basically did "disappear" last flu season because people were masking up and not travelling as much - plus, there was very little international travel to bring the flu here since that virus tends to travel the world seasonally like a reverse Snow Bird. And no, the CDC's COVID-19 numbers aren't actually flu numbers. The test for COVID-19 identifies COVID-19. The test for the flu identifies the flu. You won't get a false positive result for COVID-19 when you actually have the flu, and vice versa.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
What happened to the flu? Did it just disappear? Or could it be that the CDC's numbers for covid are in actuality a lot of flu numbers? Just a thought.

No. The CDC numbers reflect positive Covid tests. Having the flu does not trigger a positive Covid test.

Flu cases decreased as Covid precautions also reduces incidences of the flu. Mask wearing reduces the flu!
 

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
Look at the chart below. The current wave is powered by the unvaccinated. The vaccinated do get 'breakthroughs.' But they are way more protected from hospitalizations and death than the unvaccinated. And they transmit it less... mostly from not getting it at all less, but also their window of being contagious is smaller.

Now, imagine if everyone was vaccinated. Rather than a big wave powered by the unvaxinated, you'd have a weak swell of breakthroughs. Vaccinated breakthroughs infect others less, so, the number of breakthroughs also drops. Less and less people get infected until it dies out.

We don't need transmission among the vaccinated to get to zero. As each breakthrough infects less and less, that is enough. Otherwise, how could any previous wavy have ever subsided? With everyone vaccinated, the case rate continually drops.

View attachment 602666
Everything you've said is true. But not everyone is going to be vaccinated. That continues to be my point. It's not going to happen. Wish for it all you want. Where we are at with vaccinations in the United States is about where we are going to be. In fact, I think we'll slip a little as I don't think the rate of people getting boosters is going to match the first round. I'm not arguing that it *should* be that way. I'm just telling you that I believe with 100% certainty that it is going to be that way whether we like it or not. And that's why I keep saying it's time to just rip the Band-Aid off and move on. Because I honestly do not believe we have any other choice.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Everything you've said is true. But not everyone is going to be vaccinated. That continues to be my point. It's not going to happen. Wish for it all you want. Where we are at with vaccinations in the United States is about where we are going to be. In fact, I think we'll slip a little as I don't think the rate of people getting boosters is going to match the first round. I'm not arguing that it *should* be that way. I'm just telling you that I believe with 100% certainty that it is going to be that way whether we like it or not. And that's why I keep saying it's time to just rip the Band-Aid off and move on. Because I honestly do not believe we have any other choice.
Then you can equally wish away masks, if Covid is still around in high numbers the we need to continue to mask. You’re engaging in the same magical thinking. So long as Covid continues to wreck havoc in high numbers we have to deal with it. It can’t be wished away, and until enough of the population realizes that so our politicians are willing to force people to do the one thing that makes it go away, we continue status quo ad infinitum. Welcome to the new world, sucks doesn’t it? Some of have been living on it for awhile.

The only other solution is an literal miracle (or if you aren’t theologically inclined highly unlikely random event) where the virus stops killing so many people.
 
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mmascari

Well-Known Member
Everything you've said is true. But not everyone is going to be vaccinated. That continues to be my point. It's not going to happen. Wish for it all you want. Where we are at with vaccinations in the United States is about where we are going to be. In fact, I think we'll slip a little as I don't think the rate of people getting boosters is going to match the first round. I'm not arguing that it *should* be that way. I'm just telling you that I believe with 100% certainty that it is going to be that way whether we like it or not. And that's why I keep saying it's time to just rip the Band-Aid off and move on. Because I honestly do not believe we have any other choice.
What does "rip the Band-Aid off and move on" actually mean?

What are we doing now that you want to stop doing?
What aren't we doing now that you want to start doing again?

Or, do you mean just accept that all the stuff we're doing or not today IS the new normal?

Assuming I pulled the CDC numbers correctly, between 10/22/21 and 11/22/21 there were 35,401 deaths. Assuming the vaccination rate had already flatlined and never increases again in any meaningful way and we keep doing exactly what we're doing today for other mitigations, multiply that out by 12 and it's 424,812 deaths a year, plus however many million "not dead" other impacts there are. Let's even be generous and assume we need to discount for all the people who had COVID and it's only 300,000 a year.

I mean, sure, people can become numb to anything, but it's going to be super disruptive to everything to keep that pace up for another year or years.

Using this assumption, let's say we stop doing every mitigation and everyone goes back to 2019 behaviors. Do we think that number is going to stay steady or go up? Cause, I'm guessing it would push it up.

(I don't think that's a valid assumption, I believe the vaccination rate will increase even if it's super slowly it will move up. May take years not months though. Which may be just as bad.)

I think that kind of means, we're at the new normal now. There's nothing to rip off or move on from. Just adjust, we're there. Masks, distance, mostly take out, whatever of those you're doing or not doing today, that's the new normal. If you're a business that depends on close packed, unmasked, in person patrons you'll just need to adjust that the consumer pool is smaller than it was in 2019. It's not gone, there's people that's fine with, just less than in 2019. No amount of wishing to move on will get everyone back to 2019 behaviors anymore than it will get them all vaccinated.

In the perspective of WDW, I think what we've seen is that even a smaller consumer pool is still large enough.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
Everything you've said is true. But not everyone is going to be vaccinated. That continues to be my point. It's not going to happen. Wish for it all you want. Where we are at with vaccinations in the United States is about where we are going to be. In fact, I think we'll slip a little as I don't think the rate of people getting boosters is going to match the first round. I'm not arguing that it *should* be that way. I'm just telling you that I believe with 100% certainty that it is going to be that way whether we like it or not. And that's why I keep saying it's time to just rip the Band-Aid off and move on. Because I honestly do not believe we have any other choice.

This is how I feel also but I think vaccination rates will continue to climb. We just approved kids 5-12, another 12% of the population, and under 5 will be next which means another 8%. Even if their vax rates follow adult rates (60% on average) that’ll get most states near the 75% range. There are still also adults who are jumping on board for various reasons also.

We won’t really know whether the vaccines can end this until they are available to everyone. I don’t think we’ll ever get above 85% but I’m still optimistic the vaccines can get the job done even with only 75-80% onboard.
 

Christina M

New Member
I have no issue with counting it as a COVID death. Makes sense to me.

But the way I think about it, if he didn't have these health related issues over the years (becoming severe recently), would his COVID have become severe and killed him? As he was a vaccinated individual, I would say not likely, even for his age. Which is why we should stress for the future, take your vaccines AND try to lead a healthy life (Not saying his health issues were due to an unhealthy lifestyle. Just that we should do a better job as population of doing so to help prevent severe illnesses). We make ourselves too vulnerable and cannot always depend on a medicine saving us.
covid deaths should be singled out, that there were no other health issues and the PERFECTLY healthy person caught it and died. that is a TRUE covid death. sure these people with other illnesses who contracted it were pushed over the edge and died soon but not everyone who tests positive is actually sick.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
I don’t think we’ll ever get above 85% but I’m still optimistic the vaccines can get the job done even with only 75-80% onboard.
Give it 20 years.

First the vaccine gets fully approved for 5-12.
Then, schools add it to the list of mandatory vaccines.
Then enough years pass that everyone older who held out dies off (of whatever, old age) and everyone younger was vaccinated for kindergarten.

By the 75th anniversary.

Might be 30 years if we're unlucky.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Everything you've said is true. But not everyone is going to be vaccinated. That continues to be my point. It's not going to happen. Wish for it all you want. Where we are at with vaccinations in the United States is about where we are going to be. In fact, I think we'll slip a little as I don't think the rate of people getting boosters is going to match the first round. I'm not arguing that it *should* be that way. I'm just telling you that I believe with 100% certainty that it is going to be that way whether we like it or not. And that's why I keep saying it's time to just rip the Band-Aid off and move on. Because I honestly do not believe we have any other choice.
This attitude is exactly why this “is” the way it will be. It’s still just giving up and denying that anything else will happen. You’ve repeatedly been asked how things just go back and don’t answer. You want things to go back to normal but doing nothing isn’t going to fix hospital capacity or supply chain shortages or many of the other things happening. You’re not pointing out reality, because you just assume that things will somehow go back.
 

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
Flu and seasonal cold is an additional contributor to the current starin on nurse staffing levels. If you have 1 covid type symptom, you do not go to work. You get a Covid test and wait for results before returning to work. If you come down with a cough, usually 2 days off work waiting on an all clear.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Using this assumption, let's say we stop doing every mitigation and everyone goes back to 2019 behaviors. Do we think that number is going to stay steady or go up? Cause, I'm guessing it would push it up.

That's a big part of the current rising cases. For the most part, people are going back to pre-Covid behaviors, or darn close. I'm an attorney in New York -- Courts have had very limited in-person appearances for the last 18 months, everything over zoom. Despite the increasing cases, things are now going back to in-person. I was at a hockey game at Madison Square Garden a few nights ago -- They checked vaccine status to enter, but once inside there was no social distancing, virtually no masks.

The UK is also a great example. They completely dropped mitigation at about the peak of their cases.
Possibly because they dropped mitigation, their cases have stayed persistently high instead of a receding delta wave..

1637791931976.png




I think that kind of means, we're at the new normal now. There's nothing to rip off or move on from. Just adjust, we're there. Masks, distance, mostly take out, whatever of those you're doing or not doing today, that's the new normal.

Yes, some of this will be long-term/permanent. Some as a health precaution -- Masks on crowded mass transit. Some as simply the Pandemic sparked evolution -- More work from home, more tele-commuting. Lots of people won't ever return to their office/cubicle, at least not full time. Not really because of a health precaution, simply because the world has changed. We were already moving away from movie theaters towards home streaming, the pandemic likely sped up that change. Sped up the move away from shopping malls and brick and mortar stores. Changes that were already happening, but were sped up by the pandemic. My son is starting to look at colleges... many have moved away from in-person tours in favor of virtual sessions. Standardized testing has become optional.

The world isn't going back to 2019, just like it's not going back to 1919.

 

MisterPenguin

🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧Fully Pfizered!🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧🐧
Premium Member
covid deaths should be singled out, that there were no other health issues and the PERFECTLY healthy person caught it and died. that is a TRUE covid death. sure these people with other illnesses who contracted it were pushed over the edge and died soon but not everyone who tests positive is actually sick.

Perfectly healthy?

Great way to set an impossible goal post. No one's perfectly healthy.

People with other issues exist every day for years and years. And we know the death rate based on all causes of death.

So, when a pandemic comes and we get millions more death than normal, it's because of the pandemic.

If anything, the number deaths from COVID have been undercounted. They are not being overcounted because of comorbidities.

1637795290101.png
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
Perfectly healthy?

Great way to set an impossible goal post. No one's perfectly healthy.

People with other issues exist every day for years and years. And we know the death rate based on all causes of death.

So, when a pandemic comes and we get millions more death than normal, it's because of the pandemic.

If anything, the number deaths from COVID have been undercounted. They are not being overcounted because of comorbidities.

View attachment 602755
This is by far the best way to show Covid deaths.

I’m curious to see if deaths fall off a bit over the next decade since Covid has disproportionately affected the elderly.
 

disneygeek90

Premium Member
l was at a hockey game at Madison Square Garden a few nights ago -- They checked vaccine status to enter, but once inside there was no social distancing, virtually no masks.

I think it’s worth pointing out this is still a huge hurdle that doesn’t exist in most places around the country and should make people feel more comfortable about dipping their toes back into a normal, crowded area. Here in Florida I have no idea if the person next to me at a bar, theater, theme park or sporting event is vaccinated. While I trust the science of my vaccine, it’s still more reassuring when there is that secondary requirement.
 
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bubbles1812

Well-Known Member
What happened to the flu? Did it just disappear? Or could it be that the CDC's numbers for covid are in actuality a lot of flu numbers? Just a thought.
The flu is definitely still around. Everyone was just masked and appropriately social distancing last year. Not so much the case now. For instance, there is an outbreak of 500+ cases of Flu A at my local college campus even while our Covid numbers are beginning to rise… again… and our ED wait times have risen to 6-10 hours. Happy happy joy joy.

At my clinic, everyone gets swabbed for Flu and Covid simultaneously, because they can present similarly. However, that does not mean Covid case numbers are really the Flu’s numbers. There is not a conspiracy here where they are counting Flu numbers as Covid numbers for funsies to make Covid look worse than it is. Covid just really is that bad, much as some of America/the World would like to deny it.

(Of course, you can get really lucky and catch Flu and Covid together, in which case, yay you, you get recorded for both to the state. Winner winner chicken… oh you know the drill).
 

Disorbust

Well-Known Member
We had flu in SEPTEMBER ,who knows when it will be back. We also had RSV in the summer, which in 30 years I never heard of.

20-25% of our hospitalized pts are vaccinated. What is their medical history, if they are immunocompromised how long ago they were vaccinated etc, is not included in the dashboard.
 

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