Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

That calculus has changed, says Dr. Colleen Kelley, an associate professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Emory University School of Medicine. The virus that causes Covid continues to spread, due largely to millions of people who remain unvaccinated, and vaccine protection is waning more significantly over time than experts expected two months ago.

That means the odds of breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people — with potentially serious symptoms — are increasing. Booster shots, Kelley says, can increase antibody levels enough to help prevent those infections and return any breakthrough symptoms to a mild or nonexistent state.

New data says you should get a Covid vaccine booster shot as soon as you're eligible â here's why

The CDC and FDA authorized Covid vaccine booster shots for all fully vaccinated adults on Friday. Here's why you should get one as soon as you're eligible.

www.cnbc.com

 

[havoc315]

Yes your opinion. I'm saying this publicly, stop being so darn rude to people who try to have a discussion. I came back to show you that even now not all agree since you chose to ignore an article that is still highly valid and to show others facts and opinions of other valid medical people. I will stop now, because you argue simply to argue and try to push your opinions on all which I am not okay with. If Pfizer pushes for vaccines for adults, and teens will not be included I promise you for a while, then we follow it. We still with have Moderna and good luck with that coming anytime soon. I say always follow the science and have been since July of last year. I won't pretend I am better or know it all. I await results.

I've been very clear in separating my statements of opinion from statements of fact.

The evidence continues to grow in support of vaccine boosters for all adults:

"Covid vaccine booster shots for all adults could be here by Thanksgiving — and new data says you should get one immediately"​

New data says you should get a Covid vaccine booster shot as soon as you're eligible â here's why

The CDC and FDA authorized Covid vaccine booster shots for all fully vaccinated adults on Friday. Here's why you should get one as soon as you're eligible.

www.cnbc.com

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Vermont is #1 in % of population fully vaccinated (71.8%) and Maine is tied for #3 (71.2%) and those states are currently 13th and 11th worst, respectively, in case rate. Washington and Oregon have over 3 times the rate of FL and both have mask mandates that include OUTDOOR requirements.

Maybe it's time for Fauci to stop pushing authoritarian "mitigation forever" and stick to pushing people to get vaccinated to protect themselves from severe illness. The same guy who is on video saying how little masks will do is now blaming not masking indoors for surges. He knows that "COVID zero" is not going to happen but refuses to say it.

The only real tool we have that actually does something is the vaccines. They clearly significantly reduce the risk of ending up in the hospital or in the ground if you get infected with SARS-CoV-2.

There is so much wrong with so much said in your post that i don’t know where to begin. I think I’ll leave this one alone because I don’t have a hour to respond. So much has been refuted and proved wrong numerous times that it’s beating a dead horse.

 

[correcaminos]

Perhaps I am interpreting the quote in a way that fits my narrative as the vague nature of it leaves it open to interpretation. Based upon my interpretation of the quote and other data, I do not feel the level of reduced spread justifies mandatory vaccination. I will fully admit that the necessary threshold is an opinion.

It would be much more helpful if the CDC conducted and published real world efficacy studies against spread. Maybe it is higher than I think it is.

There are studies out there that show. Some of it is entirely regional based on vaccine rates and such. It's hard to get one solid answer because there are variables.

Again I am not sure I agree on mandatory vaccines. I am sure schools will get there but they always mandate (with some allowing for more exceptions than others). Universities have been mandating and I know medical workers have been as well already. Mandates work in that the number increases. It seems so many who are so against it really aren't in the end. I was for incentives and now I'm okay with doing things like increase in medical care costs. Should we nationally mandate? Ask me many times and my feelings change depending on my mood.

I do disagree completely that the degree of spread isn't enough. Even if it's a little to bring the rt to a more manageable level it is worth it to give to all.

But that's me after my reading.

 

[danlb_2000]

Vermont is #1 in % of population fully vaccinated (71.8%) and Maine is tied for #3 (71.2%) and those states are currently 13th and 11th worst, respectively, in case rate. Washington and Oregon have over 3 times the rate of FL and both have mask mandates that include OUTDOOR requirements.

Maybe it's time for Fauci to stop pushing authoritarian "mitigation forever" and stick to pushing people to get vaccinated to protect themselves from severe illness. The same guy who is on video saying how little masks will do is now blaming not masking indoors for surges. He knows that "COVID zero" is not going to happen but refuses to say it.

The only real tool we have that actually does something is the vaccines. They clearly significantly reduce the risk of ending up in the hospital or in the ground if you get infected with SARS-CoV-2.

You really still holding on to this long since discredited anti-Fauci talking point?

 

[hopemax]

Vaccines work on an individual level and a population level. The reason for mandates is to meet the conditions necessary for vaccines to work well at a population level. Being for Part 1 and not for Part 2 is still being anti-vax. People don’t just get to decide which conditions they can ignore in multiple condition requirement scenarios. It’s like saying you are pro-Triathlon but wanting to skip the running section. If you don’t believe in the population level part of vaccination then you are anti-vax. Even if you think it’s pointless because the endpoint isn’t complete eradication. If you think it’s *pointless* then that’s anti-vax. You don’t believe it works! Yes, I know people want to be on the winning side and so they want to say they are pro-vax. But if you don’t believe it works, you don’t really believe in it. If something is A+B, you don’t get to say you are pro-A+B if you are pro-A but anti-B. It’s still anti-A+B.

Frequency and severity of outbreaks will absolutely change at 95%+ vax rates vs 60%, 70% or 80% even if outbreaks continue to occur. Leaving us with a more manageable situation even if we can’t completely avoid it altogether. People either want that or they don’t.

 

[DisneyCane]

That calculus has changed, says Dr. Colleen Kelley, an associate professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Emory University School of Medicine. The virus that causes Covid continues to spread, due largely to millions of people who remain unvaccinated, and vaccine protection is waning more significantly over time than experts expected two months ago.

That means the odds of breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people — with potentially serious symptoms — are increasing. Booster shots, Kelley says, can increase antibody levels enough to help prevent those infections and return any breakthrough symptoms to a mild or nonexistent state.

New data says you should get a Covid vaccine booster shot as soon as you're eligible â here's why

The CDC and FDA authorized Covid vaccine booster shots for all fully vaccinated adults on Friday. Here's why you should get one as soon as you're eligible.

www.cnbc.com

First of all, again, this analysis is based on data from Israel which is for the Pfizer vaccine only. Taken at face value, I'm not even sure the data shows this significant waning. What needs to be compared is the breakthrough case rates during the same time period of people who were vaccinated at different time periods but were otherwise alike.

What needs to be determined is if the breakthrough infection rate given the current level of community spread is different for people for whom more time has passed since they were vaccinated.

For instance, in FL if you study breakthrough infections in June vs. August, of course there are going to be more per capita in August because community spread was so high in comparison. If you study FL in November there will be significantly fewer breakthrough infections because community spread is so much lower. That doesn't mean the vaccine efficacy vs. infection waned in August and then got better in November.

If you think you need the efficacy against infection of the first couple of months after a booster in order to reach herd immunity, reaching herd immunity isn't going to be possible. There is zero chance that you are going to get 90%+ of the population (in any country) boosted within a short enough time frame. It just isn't logistically possible regardless of resistance to it between production and getting shots in arms. Especially considering that if you don't reach herd immunity in the entire world it's just going to end up back spreading in the countries that did.

There is so much wrong with so much said in your post that i don’t know where to begin. I think I’ll leave this one alone because I don’t have a hour to respond. So much has been refuted and proved wrong numerous times that it’s beating a dead horse.

I look forward to finding out what is wrong in a seven sentence post, maybe two of which are statements of opinion.

 

[DisneyCane]

You really still holding on to this long since discredited anti-Fauci talking point?

"When you're in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet but it's not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is."

-Dr. Anthony Fauci, 60 Minutes, March 8, 2020

I didn't say it. HE did. This was prior to the panic starting when known cases were extremely rare. To this day, the bolded is still the main driver behind people who want Disney to continue requiring masks indoors at WDW.

 

[mkt]

"When you're in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet but it's not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is."

-Dr. Anthony Fauci, 60 Minutes, March 8, 2020

I didn't say it. HE did. This was prior to the panic starting when known cases were extremely rare. To this day, the bolded is still the main driver behind people who want Disney to continue requiring masks indoors at WDW.

And if you notice the date, that was very early in the pandemic, when we were still trying to figure out what was going on. Subsequently, having studied it more, it's been shown that masks are effective as a source control.

That's the problem when people who don't understand science are witnessing the process occur in real time. As more data is collected and the knowledge on a topic is increased and improved, but people who only paid attention at the beginning start to doubt the changes in real time.

 

[DisneyCane]

And if you notice the date, that was very early in the pandemic, when we were still trying to figure out what was going on. Subsequently, having studied it more, it's been shown that masks are effective as a source control.

That's the problem when people who don't understand science are witnessing the process occur in real time. As more data is collected and the knowledge on a topic is increased and improved, but people who only paid attention at the beginning start to doubt the changes in real time.

He was speaking based upon his knowledge of prior respiratory viruses. With decades of research, universal masking was never determined to be an effective defense against respiratory viruses. Others (such as influenza) also spread pre-symptomatically so it wasn't a case of the science changing because they learned COVID did.

You can't cite his past experience as the reason he should be listened to about COVID but dismiss something he said very clearly which was based on that experience.

 

[DisneyCane]

You really are something, ignoring that at the same time he also said those who are ill (contagious) should mask and attacking people for trying to feel better about the situation. You’ve already admitted that you can’t handle seeing masks and instead of dealing with that you just continue to latch onto and spread doubt about any and all visible reminders that there is a pandemic while tossing in attacks on people who are handling their concern far more responsibly.

Again, HE said it. My reaction to seeing people masked is irrelevant. When he said people who are ill, he was referring to symptomatic people which was the guidance used for evey prior respiratory virus. Someone with an asymptomatic infection of anything isn't considered "ill" by any doctor.

He didn't say "contagious" and he didn't say "infected," he said "ill" which means sick/having symptoms.

 

[correcaminos]

Again, HE said it. My reaction to seeing people masked is irrelevant. When he said people who are ill, he was referring to symptomatic people which was the guidance used for evey prior respiratory virus. Someone with an asymptomatic infection of anything isn't considered "ill" by any doctor.

He didn't say "contagious" and he didn't say "infected," he said "ill" which means sick/having symptoms.

I'll toss out a point of view to think about. Back then supplies were short and people absolutely were using cloth masks made out of bandanas even. Others were buying supplies we needed for people on the front line. We were not sure how things spread. Remember when they thought it was easily transmitted through groceries? People were wiping them down.

Things evolve and change as information emerges. Also being anti-Fauci serves little point at this time. I'm sure you've guessed that I am not a mainstream news watcher. Those who are often pick up on biases of news sources. Maybe it's time to drop this line of thought as it doesn't help much? You know my intent with this so take it how I mean it.

Vaccines work on an individual level and a population level. The reason for mandates is to meet the conditions necessary for vaccines to work well at a population level. Being for Part 1 and not for Part 2 is still being anti-vax. People don’t just get to decide which conditions they can ignore in multiple condition requirement scenarios. It’s like saying you are pro-Triathlon but wanting to skip the running section. If you don’t believe in the population level part of vaccination then you are anti-vax. Even if you think it’s pointless because the endpoint isn’t complete eradication. If you think it’s *pointless* then that’s anti-vax. You don’t believe it works! Yes, I know people want to be on the winning side and so they want to say they are pro-vax. But if you don’t believe it works, you don’t really believe in it. If something is A+B, you don’t get to say you are pro-A+B if you are pro-A but anti-B. It’s still anti-A+B.

Frequency and severity of outbreaks will absolutely change at 95%+ vax rates vs 60%, 70% or 80% even if outbreaks continue to occur. Leaving us with a more manageable situation even if we can’t completely avoid it altogether. People either want that or they don’t.

Yes they work on an individual and global level. I don't believe in black and white views. If I did there would be no way I'd convince as manu personally to vaccinate as they did.

This line is why I am undecided on mandates personally. I agree but I also think there could be better ways.

So in your mind it's black and white. But not to all. Sadly I think the ship has sailed on many things. At this point getting vaccines out is important but those who want to fight tooth and nail on this will try to find ways around. I just hope those running exception checks can see real legit vs just being contrary.

I like most of your post but nothing in life is this black and white to me. Sadly we'll be stuck for a while and in the meantime I try to encourage vaccines to unvaccinated.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

who knows at this point?

Hopefully once this is all over the CDC will do a comprehensive study to look at what worked well and what didn’t, and the social and financial costs associated with each, so we are better prepared next time.

I think the biggest hurdle with enacting affective policies this time has been that it feels like we are just throwing everything at the wall to see if something sticks, it would be nice if there was a clear cut difference between the more restrictive states and the less restrictive states but so far the virus seems to be doing its thing regardless of what we do. The only thing that seems truly affective are the vaccines, and even they aren’t completely stopping the virus, they are keeping cases mild and saving lives though.

It would be nice if next time they could point to historical data that shows: masks reduced Covid by x%, distancing reduced Covid by x%, etc…

 

[Heppenheimer]

Here's another somewhat predictable side-effect of the pandemic. We now have a national shortage of in-patient nurses. Going on two years of high-intensity work, seeing the same avoidable consequences of this disease over and over again, many nurses have called it quits and gone on to work in greener pastures. This could be working in the outpatient setting, administration, academia, or the very financially lucrative "traveling nurse" position. I can't say I blame them. If I was still working on the in-patient side, I probably would have burned out too.

This is currently having severe consequences all across the country, because the number of available nurses at any one given time largely determines hospital capacity. The COVID numbers right now in the US aren't great, but not catastrophic either, but the stresses of the pandemic have now reduced what little resiliency existed in the health care system even further. Just about all of the hospitals in my state and the larger region are swamped right now for this very reason.

 

[DisneyCane]

According to the chart on worldometers.info, today's seven day rolling average of cases in FL of 1,470 is lower than it ever reached prior to the Delta spike (not including the very early days of March/April 2020). The lowest pre-spike that I see was 1,472.

I don't expect much decline from this point for the foreseeable future. It will probably hang around this level with slight drops and increases over time. I certainly don't expect cases to trend to zero.

 

[Angel Ariel]

He didn't say what kind of masks he was talking about. Cloth wasn't really a thing at that point. I didn't put any words in his mouth. I posted a direct quote. He didn't say they don't work. He said they don't provide the perfect protection people think they do. Many people still think that masking is the ultimate force field against COVID.

I don’t know of anyone who thinks masks are perfect protection. Nothing in life or medicine is ever perfect.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not going to argue this but there are plenty of studies that say they (especially cloth) aren't very effective. One of the President's COVID advisors said the same thing on a televised interview a few months ago.

The fact is that prior to COVID, many studies were done to determine if universal masking would be helpful in the fight against other respiratory viruses like influenza and the conclusion seems to have been "no" since it was never recommend before.

I didn't say that they do absolutely nothing. I said that they do little. Especially in the context of a vaccinated person wearing one.

If the starting point is no mask and no vaccine, a person who is vaccinated becomes (according to post after post) much less likely to be a spreader. Whatever the additional reduction is from masking, it is much less significant.

There is a belief from a significant percentage of people that "if everybody just wore a mask, COVID would go away." That is not true.

This virus, while certainly contagious, is not as contagious as some picture it to be where it is like a movie and as soon as you go near somebody who has it, you get it. In several studies, the transmission within a household for unvaccinated people is around 38%.

Those “studies” are like the anti- “weather pattern” debates. 97%-3%…

so saying “some studies” makes it appear reasonable and 50/50…it’s not.

fauci will go down as one of the greatest medical public servants in history…when the absolute BS subsides…the majority of his critics never even bothered to look him up…I would bet.

but hey…we’ll keep doing the contrarian thing, right?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

According to the chart on worldometers.info, today's seven day rolling average of cases in FL of 1,470 is lower than it ever reached prior to the Delta spike (not including the very early days of March/April 2020). The lowest pre-spike that I see was 1,472.

I don't expect much decline from this point for the foreseeable future. It will probably hang around this level with slight drops and increases over time. I certainly don't expect cases to trend to zero.

Getting that 60% vaccination rate up would continue to cause decline.
cause math and science

 

[Andrew C]

Hopefully once this is all over the CDC will do a comprehensive study to look at what worked well and what didn’t, and the social and financial costs associated with each, so we are better prepared next time.

I think the biggest hurdle with enacting affective policies this time has been that it feels like we are just throwing everything at the wall to see if something sticks, it would be nice if there was a clear cut difference between the more restrictive states and the less restrictive states but so far the virus seems to be doing its thing regardless of what we do. The only thing that seems truly affective are the vaccines, and even they aren’t completely stopping the virus, they are keeping cases mild and saving lives though.

It would be nice if next time they could point to historical data that shows: masks reduced Covid by x%, distancing reduced Covid by x%, etc…

4 places, real life settings, where masks can be dropped immediately because they provide no substantial benefit…Useless. Retail stores. Commercial airliners. Restaurants. Any outdoor gathering that still requires them, no matter the size. And while they are at it, take down any remaining plexiglass across the country because it prevents proper airflow. And then in February, to allow more time for the kids to be vaccinated, remove mask requirements for every vaccinated person is all settings. And never put them back in place again.

 

[Stitch826]

Here's another somewhat predictable side-effect of the pandemic. We now have a national shortage of in-patient nurses. Going on two years of high-intensity work, seeing the same avoidable consequences of this disease over and over again, many nurses have called it quits and gone on to work in greener pastures. This could be working in the outpatient setting, administration, academia, or the very financially lucrative "traveling nurse" position. I can't say I blame them. If I was still working on the in-patient side, I probably would have burned out too.

This is currently having severe consequences all across the country, because the number of available nurses at any one given time largely determines hospital capacity. The COVID numbers right now in the US aren't great, but not catastrophic either, but the stresses of the pandemic have now reduced what little resiliency existed in the health care system even further. Just about all of the hospitals in my state and the larger region are swamped right now for this very reason.

Is this not true for nearly all industries since the pandemic? Not only is there a shortage of nurses, there’s a shortage of employees in nearly every industry. Restaurants, retail, teachers, bus drivers, hotel workers, delivery workers…