You're going to pay to ride.

Brad Bishop

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
This is a fun place to speculate what may occur in the future, and although the OPs view of the future is not impossible, it's also not very probable. We're living in unprecedented times (at least for our generation), and the way companies have had to shift and adapt to make ends meet is a wild card that needs to be part of the discussion.

I am not defending what's happening by any stretch of the imagination, but honestly regardless of how many "rubes" and "pixy dusters" we claim are out there, there is a breaking point. Honestly I think we're close.

For as much amazing price gouging that Chappie and crew are coming up with, I am not convinced it's sustainable. It think some of it was initially necessary to get WDW 'back on it's feet' 😂 after taking the pandemic hit, but again with the world and the World starting to slowly come back to some extent the ability to take advantage of that situation is coming to a close.

Based on the conversations we're having here I think we're seeing more and more people who are either not going, or are going and staying offsite, or are NOT paying for Genie Plus or NOT making ILL purchases.

The over-priced Star Cruiser although not officially launched is looking to be exactly that, over-priced and is looking like it may be a huge disappointment.

I think Universal's upcoming 3rd (4th?) gate is going to be another factor in combating Chapmaster's plans for world domination as well.

Again I enjoy debating everyone's 'crystal ball' vision of the future, so we should continue to have it, for me? I really think the wheels are going to be coming off the bus on this particular Chappie money grabbing road-trip.

Then again I am often accused of being a bit too optimistic. 😂😂😂

I agree with you on the point that there is some "breaking point" for this where people will just stop paying.

Unfortunately, I think that's a generation or two out. Currently, no matter what Disney does, people line up at the gates each day and just pay it.

I think, short term, what I discuss in my OP is the future. As @Sirwalterraleigh mentioned, it's about finding the max price people will pay (or "Market Price" as I was taught in a business class). They're clearly not there, yet. I think Bob is actively looking for that market price and, when he finds it (gate receipts take a dip in an otherwise normal year) he'll backoff just a bit (say a year or two - don't ever want to back off the price) and then do the calculations and keep the price at that level relative to inflation/population (a growing population is more people who'll pay more).

The downside of that is that I think they'll lose the multi-generational nostalgia folks who love the parks and it'll be an "elite" activity like going to a sports game (and you can see how, as they do blackouts, raise prices for games, etc. to where dad's no longer take their kids that it has affected people being interested and buying merch.)

I think Bob will be long gone by the time the generational problem hits, however (and he'll be a lot richer based on all the money he made for the Street! in both stocks and bonuses!).

The long term affects - they're coming, and it's unfortunate.

Also, thinking ahead, I'd argue that it's unlikely we'll have people in charge who care about that parks (even being theme park enthusiasts) going forward. We're going to get business guys who make business decisions and they don't see the "made up" number on their spreadsheet where the customer experience affects them. They're just selling a product.

You had Walt (obviously) and Eisner (I think he genuinely cared about the parks/resort). Iger was more an acquisition man which, in a weird way, showed how much he didn't believe in Disney talent. He'd just go somewhere else and acquire a property/company.
 

jpinkc

Well-Known Member
I agree with you on the point that there is some "breaking point" for this where people will just stop paying.

Unfortunately, I think that's a generation or two out. Currently, no matter what Disney does, people line up at the gates each day and just pay it.

I think, short term, what I discuss in my OP is the future. As @Sirwalterraleigh mentioned, it's about finding the max price people will pay (or "Market Price" as I was taught in a business class). They're clearly not there, yet. I think Bob is actively looking for that market price and, when he finds it (gate receipts take a dip in an otherwise normal year) he'll backoff just a bit (say a year or two - don't ever want to back off the price) and then do the calculations and keep the price at that level relative to inflation/population (a growing population is more people who'll pay more).

The downside of that is that I think they'll lose the multi-generational nostalgia folks who love the parks and it'll be an "elite" activity like going to a sports game (and you can see how, as they do blackouts, raise prices for games, etc. to where dad's no longer take their kids that it has affected people being interested and buying merch.)

I think Bob will be long gone by the time the generational problem hits, however (and he'll be a lot richer based on all the money he made for the Street! in both stocks and bonuses!).

The long term affects - they're coming, and it's unfortunate.

Also, thinking ahead, I'd argue that it's unlikely we'll have people in charge who care about that parks (even being theme park enthusiasts) going forward. We're going to get business guys who make business decisions and they don't see the "made up" number on their spreadsheet where the customer experience affects them. They're just selling a product.

You had Walt (obviously) and Eisner (I think he genuinely cared about the parks/resort). Iger was more an acquisition man which, in a weird way, showed how much he didn't believe in Disney talent. He'd just go somewhere else and acquire a property/company.
I agree with you. The generational thing I also think is still 1 or 2 away. On the leadership, yes after Roy O and Eisner (I too agree he cared and gambled on expansion), since then there has not been someone who CARES about WDW or DL in charge and just sees them as the Company ATM! So long as it prints the money they dont need to worry about whats going on in the Parks. Thats just sad. But thats corporate America for you. They dont care about the Physical things they own, they care what Wall Street and the Bean Counters think in the current moment. No looking forward more than maybe til tomorrow and certainly Not Ever Looking BACK!!! Thats the biggest crime here is what is being LOST IN THE DISNEY PARKS!!!
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
I've had this thought before:

With Genie, ultimately, they're going to have you pay to ride.

There's all sorts of ways that they can play with the numbers/stand-by times, etc. to coerce you. I don't think they'll have to go to that much trouble, however.

FastPass (original) was geared around:
- improved guest experience
- instead of waiting in line you'd hopefully be spending money.

FastPass+
- this was geared around improving park operations (reducing costs)

Genie+ / Lightning Lane
- This is geared around: Having you pay.

With FastPass (original) the whole "standing in line" bit was tipped on its head. The "FastPass" line was really the "normal line" where everyone waited (virtually) and the Standby Line was just that: Standby. It was like waiting/hoping for a Standby seat on an airplane. Sure, if one pops up you'll get it but, really, the normal line is FastPass.

I think that the end result of this is going to be people, while they won't believe it now, will not only accept that pay-per-ride is the norm, but they'll expect it. You can see this with a kind of false popularity of Peter Pan and TSMM (assuming it's like how it was when people would rush to it 5+ years back - that may have changed in recent years). Basically the word got out, "Oh, TSMM is a MUST and you HAVE to get there when the park first opens and RUN to TSMM if you want a shot at getting a FastPass (normal line) that day!"

Keep in mind: I'm not saying either or these are bad rides. I like both of them. I'm saying that there's a false demand for them created by the word-of-mouth bit which creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Anyway, getting back to Lightning Lane. If the FastPass line was the "normal line" then the Lightning Lane really is the new "normal line" and "standby" is still, in reality, "standby".

Even worse:
- With FastPass there was something like a 10:1 ratio of FastPass:Standby. When you were stopped in the FastPass lane to let some Standby guests in you didn't complain because it was no money out of your pocket for this and you were still well ahead of where you'd have otherwise been.
- With Lightning Lane now you're a paying customer and you didn't just pay $20/head to watch the "standby" lane go first. Again, the Standby Lane literally is "Standby" like you're waiting for an empty seat on a plane. As such, I see, eventually, the Standby lane really catering to those who'll go to the airport and buy a standby ticket because their first goal, no matter what, is saving a few $$$ (probably because they have to).
- Lightning Lane won't be the "rich" lane it'll just be the "expected to pay" lane (like how most people get a seat on an airplane. They want to have it scheduled, and they don't want to see a Standby person get their seat).

As such, I'd argue in 5-10 years, the "Lightning Lane" (paid) will become the norm (It is the "normal line" for getting onto a ride as history has shown with FastPass) and, effectively, poor people will be in the standby lane. They had enough money to get into the parks but not quite enough to pay to ride.

I also see this being flipped on its head with:
- "Well, originally Disney had you pay to get into the parks AND pay for rides" (this, of course, forgets that the higher price to get into the parks was in lieu of paying per ride)
- "You don't have to pay to ride if you don't want to - there's always standby" (and your family doesn't have to pay for the full fare of the airline ticket to get to Florida - they have the option of a reduced priced fare which they could wait multiple hours or a day or more to fly)
- (probably the most egregious one - and, yes, I see this being written in the future on this board): "The standby line gives those who can't afford it the option of still riding but they'll just have to wait a little longer."

Meanwhile, everyone else is paying $5-20/head to ride each ride and thinking it's normal, and probably paying $250/head just to get into the park. Also, "...it's a business."

"...but! but!! but!!! Universal and Six Flags have pay-to-skip the lines!"
- Yes they do. The difference is that the normal line is still the normal line. It's a normal queue. The intent is to give someone with lots of $$$$ or little time the ability to pay $$$$ to skip the line. The line is still the line. It's not a "standby" line. The norm isn't, "I have to buy an Express Pass to enjoy the day!" The norm is just getting in the normal line.

If you're thinking this is over the top, consider Bob. This is a man who'll leave nothing free on the table. You getting on the ride? All he sees on the spreadsheet is that ride cost $$$$$$ to operate and generates $0. He would like to sell that to you and, I think, he has a pretty good plan in place to do so.

He also knows: "They'll ***** and then line up and scream, "TAKE MY MONEY!," and, eventually, defend this plan." (regardless of what the plan is.)
Now that pay-for-access is here, it’s not going away. We may see tweaks, but its not going away. I am guessing standby will stay to give the “appearance of equity”.

Disney loves for the public to think the company is equitable.

Is “pay-for-park pass reservations“ next?

If so, what do they do to show equity for the poor and unfortunate who can only afford the $140 to get in?
 
Last edited:

ShookieJones

We need time for things to happen.
I agree with you on the point that there is some "breaking point" for this where people will just stop paying.

Unfortunately, I think that's a generation or two out. Currently, no matter what Disney does, people line up at the gates each day and just pay it.

I think, short term, what I discuss in my OP is the future. As @Sirwalterraleigh mentioned, it's about finding the max price people will pay (or "Market Price" as I was taught in a business class). They're clearly not there, yet. I think Bob is actively looking for that market price and, when he finds it (gate receipts take a dip in an otherwise normal year) he'll backoff just a bit (say a year or two - don't ever want to back off the price) and then do the calculations and keep the price at that level relative to inflation/population (a growing population is more people who'll pay more).

The downside of that is that I think they'll lose the multi-generational nostalgia folks who love the parks and it'll be an "elite" activity like going to a sports game (and you can see how, as they do blackouts, raise prices for games, etc. to where dad's no longer take their kids that it has affected people being interested and buying merch.)

I think Bob will be long gone by the time the generational problem hits, however (and he'll be a lot richer based on all the money he made for the Street! in both stocks and bonuses!).

The long term affects - they're coming, and it's unfortunate.

Also, thinking ahead, I'd argue that it's unlikely we'll have people in charge who care about that parks (even being theme park enthusiasts) going forward. We're going to get business guys who make business decisions and they don't see the "made up" number on their spreadsheet where the customer experience affects them. They're just selling a product.

You had Walt (obviously) and Eisner (I think he genuinely cared about the parks/resort). Iger was more an acquisition man which, in a weird way, showed how much he didn't believe in Disney talent. He'd just go somewhere else and acquire a property/company.
I agree on that Chappie is on a mission to find that max price, but I think that price point is a lot closer than you think. Again I don't have any data on this, I am just going by my very narrow view of what I see around these boards and my personal first hand experience.
I just don't see people shelling out their hard earned money for an experience that doesn't meet the financial investment.
The ONLY reason I've kept going is because the juice has been worth the squeeze.

I really don't think people are as brainwashed as we're making them out to be. Going to WDW isn't like owning an Iphone, where everyone has to have one, it's trendy and cool to have the latest version, regardless if it's the better or even good product.
 

Greg in TN

Active Member
Now that pay-for-access is here, it’s not going away. We may see tweaks, but its not going away. I am guessing standby will stay go give the “appearance of equity”.

Disney loves for the public to think the company is equitable.

Is “pay-for-park pass reservations“ next?

If so, what do they do to show equity for the poor and unfortunate who can only afford the $140 to get in?
The pay-for-park pass reservation is an interesting idea, but I really think the next nail-in-the-coffin will be pay-for transportation. That is, you have to purchase an upgrade to your admission tickets to be able to ride monorails, skyliner, boats, etc. Maybe the busses will still be free for the "unwashed masses"
 

"El Gran Magnifico"

Bring Me A Shrubbery
Premium Member
Regarding “market price”…

there’s a reason they didn’t charge it for 40 years…intentionally.

that’s by design…it’s not because the people in Burbank were too stupid to realize they could charge more.

we’re in the end game now, Dr. Strange

Probably cause they realized “the force is strong with the impulse buyers”. Little Joey needed the embroidered Mickey Ears, the Goofy T-shirt, Mickey Ice Cream bar, and the toy monorail set. There’s a reason for “special” themed cupcakes.

It’ll be interesting to see how the increased revenue from Genie+ and ILL impact F&B and merch sales. If at all.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
The pay-for-park pass reservation is an interesting idea, but I really think the next nail-in-the-coffin will be pay-for transportation. That is, you have to purchase an upgrade to your admission tickets to be able to ride monorails, skyliner, boats, etc. Maybe the busses will still be free for the "unwashed masses"
Good point. I agree, pay for transportation is next. There is a possibility park pass reservations could go away, but pay for transportation, once implemented, it will stay forever because the busses, boats, monorail must be there for (most?) visitors to get around WDW.

Yes, It would be nice for WDW to keep the buses free for the poor unfortunate folks trying to stick to the $6K they budgeted for their WDW family vacation.
 

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
Now that pay-for-access is here, it’s not going away. We may see tweaks, but its not going away. I am guessing standby will stay to give the “appearance of equity”.

Disney loves for the public to think the company is equitable.

Is “pay-for-park pass reservations“ next?

If so, what do they do to show equity for the poor and unfortunate who can only afford the $140 to get in?

I think they're headed in that direction. "Parks sold out? No problem! For just an additional $49.99/person, you can get a guaranteed park reservation! subject to availability, prices may change at any time "
 

World_Showcase_Lover007

Well-Known Member
Is “pay-for-park pass reservations” next?

Yep. Turns out all reservations are full, need a last-minute premium reservation? That’ll be $20 per ticket.

Want to take the tram? $5.

Need to park at the Lime Garage at Disney Springs? $10

Think about all the stuff within the last decade they’ve starting charging for little be little…Hotel parking, Fastpass, premium park parking, magic bands, Disney Express, firework viewing (via desert parties). It will all happen over several years, but it will happen.
 

World_Showcase_Lover007

Well-Known Member
And I’ll also say this, the sole reason why they are doing all this is stock prices. Chapek wants stock prices to increase, and the way to do that is to make more money than you did last quarter.

Stock prices are the ONLY thing that matters, because it is the only thing that matters to shareholders who control the Board of Directors. If things go to “heck and a hand basket” then, they’ll all simply go find new jobs. They don’t care about anything else.

This, of course is my humble opinion, but reading Disney War and then watching my wife get her MBA in business management has shown me an insight I previously didn’t have. It’s gross and sad but it’s how management thinks.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Probably cause they realized “the force is strong with the impulse buyers”. Little Joey needed the embroidered Mickey Ears, the Goofy T-shirt, Mickey Ice Cream bar, and the toy monorail set. There’s a reason for “special” themed cupcakes.

It’ll be interesting to see how the increased revenue from Genie+ and ILL impact F&B and merch sales. If at all.
That was the model…retail at 85-90% profit was much better yield.

but the world has changed on that front in many ways
 

"El Gran Magnifico"

Bring Me A Shrubbery
Premium Member
I think they're headed in that direction. "Parks sold out? No problem! For just an additional $49.99/person, you can get a guaranteed park reservation! subject to availability, prices may change at any time "

I think they “guarantee” it with the $800 deluxe room or the $500 moderate one. The $350 value room will get you preferential treatment- but not quite a guarantee.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Which still amazes me. I’ve seen videos where those are still 15-20 minute waits. You’re exactly correct. It’s a paid line.
Right…

but what I meant was people claimed they’d be included in rooms…which was NEVER going to happen. But I think It was said it wouldn’t be so…

which is not understanding what’s going on at all.
 

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