WSJ: Even Disney Is Worried About The High Cost Of A Disney Vacation (gift link)

[LSLS]

Quick reminder that there are 8 new attractions coming to WDW that are about to start construction. The new attractions are very likely to increase attendance.

If Epic fails to deliver an attendance boost for Universal that would be concerning. I think Epic will boost attendance though.

Lightning Lane has increased the return on investment for new attractions. So when you say “doing nothing” you’re ignoring that in order to keep the Lightning lane model afloat they have to invest billions in new attractions.

That's the real question. Star Wars land doesn't really give us any data with Covid, but 2023 data is significantly lower than even 2017 before Toy Story Land opened, so it's real hard to say there was much of any boost. Toy Story Land may have increased around 500k people? I know there are a ton of other factors in these things, so it's tough. I think the last one you can really point to opening and bringing a bump in attendance is Pandora. But that fell off after Covid, to the point it's attendance is lower than 2006. So, it's possible to see an attendance increase in the short term. But, the questions will be 1.)Is there any sustainability in the increase, and 2.)Is it a true increase in people coming, or just people adjusting their parks attendance for the most part (i.e. going 2 days to DHS instead of 1 at DHS and one at DAK)? I think Lightning Lane is the true boost they are looking for in the construction.

 

[Stripes]

It also will encourage them to minimize actual capacity expansion to feed additional demand into the LL system.

If that were true, we wouldn’t be seeing the projects we are getting. Every single one of them increases capacity beyond what it’s replacing and there are also 2 flat rides in the mix. How many years has it been since they built a flat ride at WDW?

LL is a growing factor for pushing guests away from Disney. Disney doubling down on it is only good in the short term.

LL pushed me away when I had to wake up before 7am to book them every day of the trip. Now that I can schedule them 7 days in advance it’s fine.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

“there is an economic addiction to premium products”

This one hits close to home for me, my GF loves name brands, in a lot of cases these brands are higher quality, softer fabrics, more durable, have lifetime guarantees, etc and I can see why they’re priced how they are, in other cases they are no better than the no name brands and you are literally just paying for the name though.

Disney has always fallen into the high quality category for me, where the product justifies the price, but with the ever increasing prices and all of the cuts it’s dangerously close to falling into the “paying for the name” category.

I have no problem paying premium prices for premium products but that quality better be easy to see, and therefore easy to justify.

 

[Stripes]

That's the real question. Star Wars land doesn't really give us any data with Covid, but 2023 data is significantly lower than even 2017 before Toy Story Land opened, so it's real hard to say there was much of any boost. Toy Story Land may have increased around 500k people? I know there are a ton of other factors in these things, so it's tough. I think the last one you can really point to opening and bringing a bump in attendance is Pandora. But that fell off after Covid, to the point its attendance is lower than 2006. So, it's possible to see an attendance increase in the short term. But, the questions will be 1.)Is there any sustainability in the increase, and 2.)Is it a true increase in people coming, or just people adjusting their parks attendance for the most part (i.e. going 2 days to DHS instead of 1 at DHS and one at DAK)? I think Lightning Lane is the true boost they are looking for in the construction.

I know I’m just one person but the projects they announced are a lot more exciting to me that what we got between 2018-2023, which were primarily copies of projects they either had already been built elsewhere or opened on the west coast as well.

All of these projects are unique to WDW, which is another great change.

 

[flynnibus]

You can only increase per caps and suffer decreased attendance for so long.

You can if you build champions out of the customers you do have.. and they in turn germinate the next generation.

The problem becomes when you

1 - Stop building champions due to their declining experience
and
2 - Expect forever growth from the same sized pool

You can't expect the same sized customer pool to sustain growth perpetually. You gotta expand.

I think TWDC got too addicted to the cash flow of P&R and forced it into the slave mule to carry much more of the larger business vs letting it breathe organically.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

LL pushed me away when I had to wake up before 7am to book them every day of the trip. Now that I can schedule them 7 days in advance it’s fine.

The change to allow pre-booking definitely increased LLMPs appeal to us also, still not happy about paying extra for something that was formerly free but knowing ahead of time we are guaranteed at least 3 rides drastically increased its perceived value to us. Our last WDW trip (with LL) felt very similar to our old pre LL trips.

It’s turned the parks from a monthly visit to a yearly visit though, we can justify paying a couple hundred dollars extra (to get the same quality experience we used to get) once or twice a year, but we can’t justify paying it multiple times a year.

 

[Jrb1979]

That's the real question. Star Wars land doesn't really give us any data with Covid, but 2023 data is significantly lower than even 2017 before Toy Story Land opened, so it's real hard to say there was much of any boost. Toy Story Land may have increased around 500k people? I know there are a ton of other factors in these things, so it's tough. I think the last one you can really point to opening and bringing a bump in attendance is Pandora. But that fell off after Covid, to the point it's attendance is lower than 2006. So, it's possible to see an attendance increase in the short term. But, the questions will be 1.)Is there any sustainability in the increase, and 2.)Is it a true increase in people coming, or just people adjusting their parks attendance for the most part (i.e. going 2 days to DHS instead of 1 at DHS and one at DAK)? I think Lightning Lane is the true boost they are looking for in the construction.

That's where I'm at. New attractions will give the parks a boost. In my mind it's bringing back those who left from 2019. I'm still of the belief the Orlando market is tapped and I don't think they will get much higher attendance that what they are at now.

A big tell is this summer, Disney world is down judging by hotel rates being the lowest since COVID and Universal. A new theme park regardless if its Universal or Disney,, Orlando shouldn't be this down.

 

[LSLS]

I know I’m just one person but the projects they announced are a lot more exciting to me that what we got between 2018-2023, which were primarily copies of projects they either had already been built elsewhere or opened on the west coast as well.

All of these projects are unique to WDW, which is another great change.

They may be more exciting, and may add more than what was currently there (albeit things like Dino DID have the same amount when everything was there, and I believe DHS will still be below opening). But I think there is real question if it matters if you have priced people too far out of the parks. I think the Super Nintendo opening in Hollywood is a serious warning sign to the more expensive parks. They saw a massive boost, for 1 year. But people can't justify that expense year after year (at least that's what I'm reading from the massive drops in revenue domestically for them last year, guess we will know more when the 2024 data comes out in a few months). The things coming to WDW may provide a short term boost, but unless there are changes to operations (which I just don't see happening), I'm not convinced they are going to be massive permanent boosts (if they boost at all).

 

[Stripes]

A big tell is this summer, Disney world is down judging by hotel rates being the lowest since COVID and Universal. A new theme park regardless if it’s Universal or Disney,, Orlando shouldn't be this down.

I think the hotel rates are low because Disney and Universal are competing on price in Orlando.

Disney wants the Epic visitors to stay at their resorts. Universal/Loews is fighting back.

I don’t think the low summer rates are necessarily indicative of an attendance slowdown.

 

[PiratesMansion]

I don’t think the low summer rates are necessarily indicative of an attendance slowdown.

Why wouldn't it be? Summer has been notably declining for years at this point.

 

[Jrb1979]

I think the hotel rates are low because Disney and Universal are competing on price in Orlando.

Disney wants the Epic visitors to stay at their resorts. Universal/Loews is fighting back.

I don’t think the low summer rates are necessarily indicative of an attendance slowdown.

Hotels only offer low rates when they aren't filling. You can't tell me the majority of Epic Universe guests are staying off site.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Correct.

View attachment 844868
View attachment 844869

Someone said they'd need to spend $450 times 10 to visit Epic for 10 days ($4150), but a Preferred AP is $630 (before tax), and then we'll say about $150 times 10 for Epic tickets, or $2130 (not counting tax), which is only about half of $4150.

A Power AP would cost even less.

If the park merits that many returns, I could see quite a few AP holders willing to shell out that kind of money, esp with Stella/Terra going for just $180 ish and Early Entry at the AP rate.

Huh, and AP knocks about $100 off the cost of the room per night. I mean, 2 nights and you've kinda paid for the AP upgrade right there (over price of a reg park ticket). A 3day park hopper for May 21 is $400 before tax.

Meanwhile over at WDW $180/night (without AP) only gets you All Stars or Pop (about $200 w/Stay More discount). Personally, I'd 100% choose the brand new Stella Nova over the All Stars.

 

[hopemax]

I think fans put a little too much emphasis on the first few months of new ops, when it seems like most vacationers don't really want to be the *first* people to try something that's going to be around for a long while (unlike say a sporting event or concert that is "one night only.") They assume it will be too crowded, subject to unexpected maintenance closures, etc. "Visit within the first year" is good enough for most people. And summer in Central Florida is a special kind of hell that should be avoided. I'd be curious what the normally slower, post Halloween / pre-Christmas early Nov - early Dec bookings are doing.

 

[MakDis]

Since it's price-related and relevant to this thread, I'm going to remind all of you who have not yet bought your date-based WDW tickets for later this year: this week is a great time to do that.

Len, would this apply to military salute tickets as well?

 

[lentesta]

Len, would this apply to military salute tickets as well?

I don't think so. If nothing else, it'd be a bad look.

From the conversations I've had and the docs I've seen, I think it's dated tix, the kind you'd buy online or in person at the parks. So not APs either.

 

[Stripes]

You can't tell me the majority of Epic Universe guests are staying off site.

Why would you assume most Epic guests will be staying on-site?

 

[Jrb1979]

Why would you assume most Epic guests will be staying on-site?

Same reason Disney guests stay on site

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I think fans put a little too much emphasis on the first few months of new ops, when it seems like most vacationers don't really want to be the *first* people to try something that's going to be around for a long while (unlike say a sporting event or concert that is "one night only.") They assume it will be too crowded, subject to unexpected maintenance closures, etc. "Visit within the first year" is good enough for most people. And summer in Central Florida is a special kind of hell that should be avoided. I'd be curious what the normally slower, post Halloween / pre-Christmas early Nov - early Dec bookings are doing.

This was certainly the case with Galaxy's Edge and to some extent Hagrid's.

GE wasn't fully open when it opened, and it had reliability issues, so it was not the draw WDW hoped. Hagrid's was unreliable, but a good number of people were willing to wait for it.

In prior days, new rides seemed like a bigger draw though. Remember when Soarin', EE, and TSM were new? I remember when M:S was new. The lines for T and M:S merged because both were so popular. Well TT still had some reliability issues, but the ride was so popular people were willing to wait. Gringott's was also a big deal when it opened.

I do think early reviews play a role in how quickly people decide they are willing to wait.

The craziest though was the wait for the Frozen sister when they were originally in Epcot. The wait regularly went above 6 hours, and that lasted for months.

Then again, how long were people willing to wait in line to get a plastic popcorn bucket?

 

[HauntedPirate]

I think fans put a little too much emphasis on the first few months of new ops, when it seems like most vacationers don't really want to be the *first* people to try something that's going to be around for a long while (unlike say a sporting event or concert that is "one night only.") They assume it will be too crowded, subject to unexpected maintenance closures, etc. "Visit within the first year" is good enough for most people. And summer in Central Florida is a special kind of hell that should be avoided. I'd be curious what the normally slower, post Halloween / pre-Christmas early Nov - early Dec bookings are doing.

Are you saying that all of those people who bought tickets to Ozzy's "No More Tours" tour back in 1992 were wrong to do so??? WHAT IF!!! things go wrong and stuff gets closed after a few months??? You'll have to live with that FOMO forever, and that's not something we can have.

But, being serious - This is 100% correct. There are those who have to have the latest popcorn bucket the minute it comes out (and those who have to have them to resell) who will be there opening day/week/month. Hopefully the experience and word-of-mouth is strong enough to sustain "attendance success" for Epic for a long time.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

So where is the 60 billion coming from for park investment ?

I understood that WDW would not get the whole 60 billion, but a part of it? Was I wrong?