WSJ: Even Disney Is Worried About The High Cost Of A Disney Vacation (gift link)

[BrianLo]

It can…and it is

For some reason…you seem to not want to accept how dependent they are on Parks - particularly the flagship

They are…and have been. They have always made as much off the gift shop as everything else combined. We got 50-60 years of history on this.

The difference now is they don’t have linear tv revenues out the yang - which was the foundation revenue stream. They only have parks to stand on now

And that $15 mil cleared on Mufasa

Now the consumer products market has changed - no doubt. But people still buy crap…and pay interest on it

I think you keep misunderstanding me. Revenue, revenue, revenue. I keep using that word for a reason. No one’s WDW vacation bill is 50% merch. If it is, I suggest we both hold an intervention for them.

WDW is about 20% of the companies revenue. The number is the number.

As for my commentary: It’s a lot, it’s also not the company nor the reason the stock price has solely sucked. You agree with me, it’s linear. I’ll reiterate, it’s not the Walt Disney World company. Which is why the stock price is a very bad colloary for the health of WDW.

 

[JoeCamel]

No. I wouldn't have known where to look. thank you!

If you were doing your homework and avidly consuming every morsel of every thread here then you would have seen it, no soup for you!

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Again, you're going on and on about something that is beside the point. I do indeed understand that there is more audience overlap with DCL and WDW than there presumably would be with Universal Orlando and Universal Kids. What I am saying is that they are invoking the Universal name and brand equity in such a way that could be detrimental. Even if the audiences are mostly separate (at least by age segregation), using the name still signals something to visitors. If Universal Kids is first contact, won't that color perceptions of Universal in general and possibly impact willingness to engage with the brand in the future upon aging out? And if, assuming the reverse, Universal Orlando is instead first contact, don't you suppose visitors will enter Universal Kids with certain expectations and assumptions? Additionally, I can't imagine there's no desire whatsoever to "graduate" visitors with means to more expensive Universal experiences as they get older.

One thing that strikes me about Universal is that they are often talked about as though they have basically become what Disney used to be in terms of quality, whereas my impression is more that that the gap has narrowed. In part because of Disney's sliding standards and skyrocketing costs but also Uni's rising standards, Universal Orlando is now more comparable to and affordable than WDW. I think that's different than offering theming, service, and value akin to what Disney used to and what some still find on the DCL.

All this is to say that I do wonder what Universal Kids will be like if the mandate is for it to be a relatively cheap offering. Having been to Universal Studios Singapore, that model of a more modest full Universal park did not reflect wonderfully on the brand for me. It was fun for a day, but if that was the level I imagined of the parks in Hollywood and Orlando I certainly wouldn't be planning a vacation to visit them. I realise Universal Kids is a different proposition and the Singapore park is not managed directly by Universal. However, the point still stands that they have to be careful not to go too cheap/basic in a similar way that creates an early impression that this is the level of Universal's offerings more broadly. Rather than providing a pipeline to Universal Orlando, it could suggest more than you start with Universal and then graduate to Disney's more elaborate offerings.

 

[JohnD]

If you were doing your homework and avidly consuming every morsel of every thread here then you would have seen it, no soup for you!

Yeah, I started reading the first three of 28 pages then threw up my hands. If I only had the patience to get to page 16. Oh well.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Yeah, I started reading the first three of 28 pages then threw up my hands. If I only had the patience to get to page 16. Oh well.

I made it to the third or fourth post - then skipped to the end.

 

[Baloo124]

I live somewhat near Dollywood. They have a lot of things they could do to make their parks better. They need way more indoor attractions for one and their food is mostly not very good as well. Their prices have gone up a good amount the last several years too, but it’s still what I would consider reasonable. Some of their attractions have really poor capacity (TN tornado, Firechaser, etc)

There is apparently a dark ride in the works involving a story about bears in the Smokies. The pandemic put it on the shelf. Whether or not it remains hidden on the shelf, and for how long, is the big question. But at least it hasn't been labeled as "cancelled" yet, so there's hope.
This project is also apparently a new, 2nd dark ride, not a replacement of the parks existing dark ride, Blazing Fury. Time will tell if anything comes from this. Plans change very frequently around that park. At one time there was going to be an immersive, themed land involving winter in southern Appalachia. It was to go near the bus/groups unloading area behind the path up to Thunderhead, etc. Never happened. Also there was going to be a chairlift type of transit ride going across park. Never happened. I believe that one even made it as far as to be included in concept artwork at some point.

 

[Baloo124]

It was to go near the bus/groups unloading area behind the path up to Thunderhead, etc.

Correction: The proposed winter themed area was going to BE where the bus area is, behind the gate near the Emporium.

 

[Jrb1979]

I live somewhat near Dollywood. They have a lot of things they could do to make their parks better. They need way more indoor attractions for one and their food is mostly not very good as well. Their prices have gone up a good amount the last several years too, but it’s still what I would consider reasonable. Some of their attractions have really poor capacity (TN tornado, Firechaser, etc)

Food can be improved but as far as indoor attractions go, they have enough. IMO it doesn't need to be Disney lite. Outside of here Dollywood is a highly rated park.

 

[lentesta]

If you were doing your homework and avidly consuming every morsel of every thread here then you would have seen it, no soup for you!

It's a 27-page thread with links to 50 more pages of external content and SO HELP ME YOU'LL READ IT ALL BEFORE BRINGING THIS MESS IN HERE.

 

[Jrb1979]

We’re in agreement because you definitely understand what it is and isn’t. Most people don’t.

There’s a lot of chatter from Universal adults who want to go from out of state to what is essentially two Dreamworks lands, a storybook circus and (if we’re incredibly lucky) a Seuss landing duct taped together.

It’s a very narrow audience and what I feel is a poor decision for the brand.

I disagree. Outside of here, most don't know it will exist. It's going to marketed to people in Texas only. It's also their way to get into a growing market

 

[GhostHost1000]

Food can be improved but as far as indoor attractions go, they have enough. IMO it doesn't need to be Disney lite. Outside of here Dollywood is a highly rated park.

they don’t have enough imo when the cold weather shuts down most of the outdoor attractions

 

[Jrb1979]

they don’t have enough imo when the cold weather shuts down most of the outdoor attractions

In the colder weather it's about the entertainment and less about attractions

 

[SteamboatJoe]

Here's a wild anecdotal thing. My youngest has been a few times to WDW (we usually need to be down there for a convention in the summer). The thing he wants most this summer when we go down? A hotel with a crazy pool. He could care less about the parks. All he talks about right now is going to Cedar Point this summer (mind you he's in Kindergarten). I think of some of those memories from when I was younger. It's not riding Space Mountain or dumbo. It's the parades (especially at night), the fireworks, it's the character interactions, things like that (it still occurs, but I still remember NEEDING to stay out every night to watch the electric water parade). He just doesn't have any connection with the parks at all outside of "Oh that Guardians of the Galaxy ride is fun." I know I've been broken from my loyalty, but we still go, and it's interesting that it's not connecting at all with him at his age. Now, it could just be kids are weird and he will look back much differently later, but he definitely could care less about going to Disney this year.

Interesting case study.

My almost 6 yo daughter is somewhat the opposite. My wife and I, both hooked on WDW in childhood during the 90s and early 00s, respectively, took her for the first time in December 2023 at age 4. She's hooked. She constantly talks about going back and told us she is now saving her money to do so. Its cute but also sort of heartbreaking because we have to find a way to delicately deal with the topic of $20 in a piggy bank not being enough.

Fortunately, in addition to already having DCL trip booked in May to scratch the itch, my wife and I, a middle class family in the Midwest, are fortunate enough to be able to have a Disney vacation savings plan (in addition to a standard vacation savings plan) designed to save up enough for a decent length stay at Pop in October (unlike in 2015 and 2017, we are now priced out of moderates; deluxe have always been unobtainable).

That said, we aren't sure if we'll pull the trigger. Not only is it a lot of $ we could use on other things like much needed home improvements, but with all the changes (i.e., construction) at WDW, DL is looking like a better option as the work going on there seems like it will be less intrusive, the resort is compact, the character interaction is better, and they still have a functional ROA. WDW losing their ROA is a big deal to me.

We took our daughter for a 4 night stay at Cedar Point's Hotel Breakers this past summer and she loved that too, but isn't clamoring about going back like she is WDW. Part of that may be we have season passes to our community pool and our regional amusement park so, aside from the beach, going to Cedar Point probably was not quite as special as WDW.

FWIW, we enjoyed Hotel Breakers. It was a touch of the Disney resort vibe at a fraction of the price...beach view room, pool access, early park entry, evening entertainment at the resort, lots of nice places on property to just relax. The resort food quality isnt nearly what it could be, especially with prices that rival Disney, but the park food is good enough.

 

[LSLS]

Interesting case study.

My almost 6 yo daughter is somewhat the opposite. My wife and I, both hooked on WDW in childhood during the 90s and early 00s, respectively, took her for the first time in December 2023 at age 4. She's hooked. She constantly talks about going back and told us she is now saving her money to do so. Its cute but also sort of heartbreaking because we have to find a way to delicately deal with the topic of $20 in a piggy bank not being enough.

Fortunately, in addition to already having DCL trip booked in May to scratch the itch, my wife and I, a middle class family in the Midwest, are fortunate enough to be able to have a Disney vacation savings plan (in addition to a standard vacation savings plan) designed to save up enough for a decent length stay at Pop in October (unlike in 2015 and 2017, we are now priced out of moderates; deluxe have always been unobtainable).

That said, we aren't sure if we'll pull the trigger. Not only is it a lot of $ we could use on other things like much needed home improvements, but with all the changes (i.e., construction) at WDW, DL is looking like a better option as the work going on there seems like it will be less intrusive, the resort is compact, the character interaction is better, and they still have a functional ROA. WDW losing their ROA is a big deal to me.

We took our daughter for a 4 night stay at Cedar Point's Hotel Breakers this past summer and she loved that too, but isn't clamoring about going back like she is WDW. Part of that may be we have season passes to our community pool and our regional amusement park so, aside from the beach, going to Cedar Point probably was not quite as special as WDW.

FWIW, we enjoyed Hotel Breakers. It was a touch of the Disney resort vibe at a fraction of the price...beach view room, pool access, early park entry, evening entertainment at the resort, lots of nice places on property to just relax. The resort food quality isnt nearly what it could be, especially with prices that rival Disney, but the park food is good enough.

I wonder if there's a difference for boys and girls there. He's also insanely tall for his age so he can hit the Cedar Point coasters (at least some of them that are 48 inches, probably more this year). For what it's worth, totally agree with your Cedar Point assessment. Breakers is awesome, great perks, and the beach is highly underrated. My big complaint is the same, the food is not good. There are a few decent spots, but that is a thing that could very much use an upgrade. Also, DCL definitely had more of a Disney feel to it than the parks last time we went (in terms of service, taking care of you, etc.).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Tou think they built toy storyland as an wholesome imaginative version of vegas?

‘Fanciful’ adults don’t come to Florida to wait 30mins for dumbo… they do it for their kids hoping to build memories like they had from their parents.

You got one thing right… “alternative timeline” - as in not this reality

You buried the lead here

They are losing the family market…so what’s left is the grandfathered in adults


Good thing thing they haven’t sterilized the compound from adults with gimmicky stuff for kids and dusters for the last 20 years, eh?

 

[Laketravis]

So many great comments here as I've skimmed over the past day or so.

All I can add is;

Two years ago, when I evacuated and took my tax money with me moved from Southern California to Utah, I celebrated by booking a stay at Amangiri, the Aman resort in southern Utah. I'd stayed at an Aman hotel in Tokyo before, and it was fabulous, so I wanted to try their Utah experience. It was stunning. Absolute perfection. Food, service, polish, amenities, spookily accurate attentiveness, extreme professionalism, bizarrely curated offerings, incredible architecture, excellent soft goods, impressive staff training and polish, EVERYTHING was perfection. (Not to mention the people watching by the pool was hysterical!)

And as a guy who spent many, many visits to WDW at the Poly in the 1980's-2000's, I was floored when I happily paid the Amex bill a few weeks later, still on an Aman high. I could have spent the same money and stayed in a Poly one bedroom suite and had dramatically lower service levels, dramatically lower operational offerings, noticeably inferior soft goods and amenities, all served up by a staff of CM's that too often seems like a sloppy amateur hour as they dream up new ways to tell you "No".

TDO, and Burbank, both have huge problems with their current Parks core products. These problems are at their most glaring at WDW because of its business model built around attracting, and keeping, customers on property for a week or so. Their entire Parks business model is collapsing under a decade or more of penny-pinching, and value-engineering, and App-based torture, and cheapened training processes and obviously lowered employee standards, with a big dollop of TDO bureaucracy and idiocy on top.

Sadly, they deserve this bad press. If anything, the WSJ was being too kind on them.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

One thing I've noticed about the top 20% of income earners, they have a lot more expenses than I do.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

I wonder if there's a difference for boys and girls there. He's also insanely tall for his age so he can hit the Cedar Point coasters (at least some of them that are 48 inches, probably more this year). For what it's worth, totally agree with your Cedar Point assessment. Breakers is awesome, great perks, and the beach is highly underrated. My big complaint is the same, the food is not good. There are a few decent spots, but that is a thing that could very much use an upgrade. Also, DCL definitely had more of a Disney feel to it than the parks last time we went (in terms of service, taking care of you, etc.).

Probably. I imagine the height thing is definitely a factor. She loves coasters but is too short for the next tier beyond Camp Snoopy other than Cedar Creek Mine Ride. Glad to hear that about DCL. We've never done a cruise much less DCL but have always heard great things.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

if moments with Walt Disney works at Disneyland, I could see that being installed at WDW as well after the next election.

 

[DisneyHead123]

And the theme you gloss over is those childless adult visitors are largely the prior loyalists and their offspring. A cycle that is now broken… so as these folks die off… so does the customer demographic.

Those childless adults aren’t coming as Vegas alternatives… they are coming because they were lured by the disney reputation of old…

The real test of your theory would be childless adults who are first time visitors…. Not just them being there

I've always taken the "people visit because of nostalgia thing" as a given as well. But the more I think about it, the more I wonder if this arose out of the stereotype that Disney is for kids, so if adults like it, that can only be the result of childhood nostalgia. But increasingly I think adults like going to Disney for its own sake, and it's seen more as a fun destination for young adults. It seems like Disney influencers with kids are actually the exception, not the norm, which would seem to indicate something about the audience consuming that content.

I mean if you think about it, we rarely if ever apply this thinking to anything else. People don't worry that if they don't take their kids to Starbucks they won't grow up to be coffee lovers, if they can't afford to go to Europe their kids will refuse to visit Europe as adults, and so on. Or the reverse - we went to Kings Island plenty of times when I was a kid and I loved it, but as an adult I have no desire to go back. Nostalgia did nothing for me in that case.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Disney is ever going to give up on families entirely. They must make bank from little ones going through their "princess phase", after all - the Bippity Boppity Boutique, the princess meals, the costumes, the merch. That's not changing anytime soon. But I do think that when it comes to disposable income, parents are typically going to be at a disadvantage when compared to childless people with a similar income. Not in every single case, but on average, parents probably have more motivation to visit Disney (you generally have way fewer options for vacations with children in tow), but less resources to do so.

Just my two cents anyway. Time will tell I guess.