Wow! Monorail Orange.

[Figment2005]

28 years (over 10,000 days). That would be an average of over 100 miles a day. The system has millions upon millions of miles on it, but the individual trains are likely getting near that number if not over it.

I just did some very rough math. If a train only did the Epcot loop that would be roughly 6 miles every 20 minutes. That's 3 laps in an hour equaling 18 miles. The trains operate roughly 15 hours a day equaling 270 miles a day. That is 98,550 miles a year totaling 2,562,300 miles over their 26 year lifespan.

Now the problem is that each train doesn't do just one beam, they alternate. So while this gives an idea it is nowhere near accurate.

 

[Bender123]

I just did some very rough math. If a train only did the Epcot loop that would be roughly 6 miles every 20 minutes. That's 3 laps in an hour equaling 18 miles. The trains operate roughly 15 hours a day equaling 270 miles a day. That is 98,550 miles a year totaling 2,562,300 miles over their 26 year lifespan.

Now the problem is that each train doesn't do just one beam, they alternate. So while this gives an idea it is nowhere near accurate.

That is my point. Each train isn't running that schedule every day and some have been out of service for periods of time.

 

[Figment2005]

That is my point. Each train isn't running that schedule every day and some have been out of service for periods of time.

There are also days of the year where the trains run for 24-48 hours straight. New Years, Christmas, Marathon.

 

[Bender123]

There are also days of the year where the trains run for 24-48 hours straight. New Years, Christmas, Marathon.

Im sure many are well over 1,000,000 miles. Some, like Peach/Teal, have well under that number, although parts of Teal are far over.

 

[Monorail_Orange]

CM's call them trains because that's what they are. To get one back to the round house is an intense multi step operation that typically requires them to change to a different beam. This is normally done way up world drive past Space Mtn. (opposite side of the road). To swap one out just to change a light bulb during busy times is just not feasible. As already mentioned it is a mechanical device. Things do break unexpectedly even with good maintenance. If you drive by the round house there are typically a few trains in there at any given time being serviced , cleaned etc. They all go thru multi checks everyday before they go into service. Same with busses the difference is with a bus if there is a failure it can be emptied and swapped out way easier and no one is the wiser. If one bus is down no one will notice. If a train is down it's a mess. In the end busses are the unsung heroes because when the doo doo hits the fan the busses p/u the slack. Even though people like to complain about them they are the muscle that keep people moving.

I can't speak for anyone else, but my complaints about the busses aren't about the busses in and of themselves, but rather, that the company chose to implement them rather than expanding or exploring any other mass transportation system (until now, with the gondolas).

 

[Bender123]

I can't speak for anyone else, but my complaints about the busses aren't about the busses in and of themselves, but rather, that the company chose to implement them rather than expanding or exploring any other mass transportation system (until now, with the gondolas).

Busses used to be a great solution to a minor problem...how to get people from a few "non-orail" resorts to Epcot and MK. As the Studios were added, you could take a boat/monorail to most of the theme parks and from most of the hotels, save CBR. Suddenly the expansion of hotels, water parks, and the addition of AK means you now are greatly tilted the opposite way...the vast majority of guests are going to hotels with none of these services.

Bus was always the default and the solution was likely "Add more busses", because its cheap/easy on capex to get approved, known in quality and has is fairly low risk. The problem with this is that unchecked growth in the resort has caused the bus system to become inadequate for the ongoing growth and "add more busses" isn't a logical solution when there are enough busses, just not enough ability to accurately forecast when and how many are needed at any given time. Its easy to plan for the end of the day, because you know how many people are in the park. The start of the day, the afternoon nap time, park to park, transfers, etc...are all random and unknowable. You cant just throw a bus at them every 20 minutes, either. Traffic is a question as well and there isn't a guarantee that an guests will ever be waiting either...busses can come and go with no guests to one resort and, for some reason a full corral of people sit waiting at another resort.

The advantage a monorail or a Gondola is that they are always operating at peak efficiency, all the time (assuming the system is functioning). The problem with a monorail/gondola is that its a $300 Million cost before you even get off the ground. Adding a bus is a $100,000 and an extra FTE. When you are going to a boss and solving a transportation problem, the point where the monorail expansion/gondola build becomes feasible is when the huge ongoing expense of the busses crosses the level of the high upfront cost. It seems that Disney has now hit the point where running busses is just too cost prohibitive on an ongoing basis.

WDW owns a fleet of about 400 busses...lets assume 350 are running any given day and require 2 FTEs per day per bus...using normal Human Resources math, we would get about $23 million per year...on JUST bus driver pay. That doesn't add in items like mechanics, maintenance, bus costs, gas, infrastructure (roads, bus depot, storage, shops, cleaning, etc). Its not difficult to assume the annual expenditure for bussing, alone, at WDW is in the area of $75 million (if not more).

You can tell that this number has finally hit a pain point for Disney to build out a newer mass transit option. Based on the costs of the bus and rising fuel/labor costs, I would guess that gondola stage 2 (or the AK link/gondorail/light rail/whatever) is going to be coming sooner rather than later and is only being spaced out due to the massive capital expenses currently being laid out for Epcot, Studios and gondola phase one.

 

[jbolen2]

I just did some very rough math. If a train only did the Epcot loop that would be roughly 6 miles every 20 minutes. That's 3 laps in an hour equaling 18 miles. The trains operate roughly 15 hours a day equaling 270 miles a day. That is 98,550 miles a year totaling 2,562,300 miles over their 26 year lifespan.

Now the problem is that each train doesn't do just one beam, they alternate. So while this gives an idea it is nowhere near accurate.

With that math it's safe to say each has at least a million miles on them including downtime and repairs.

 

[Figment2005]

With that math it's safe to say each has at least a million miles on them including downtime and repairs.

correct

 

[jt04]

I can't speak for anyone else, but my complaints about the busses aren't about the busses in and of themselves, but rather, that the company chose to implement them rather than expanding or exploring any other mass transportation system (until now, with the gondolas).

Well they did just hire someone so I would expect we will start seeing something more announced in a year or two. There can only be so much construction happening at once.

 

[Monorail_Orange]

Well they did just hire someone so I would expect we will start seeing something more announced in a year or two. There can only be so much construction happening at once.

How does the construction that is confirmed for the next 5 years compare to what construction was accomplished in the last 10 years? Especially in that time period between finishing Everest (2006) and starting Pandora (2012), when very little else was being built at WDW.

I see your point, don't misunderstand me, but I'm not willing to excuse TWDC/TDO's failure to account for the long term. My point is the transportation system should have been addressed during the explosive build out of the hotels on property. Moving beyond busses as the primary system is overdue by between 15-25 years.

 

[celluloid]

For people worrying about the monorails going away forever and for those claiming that it is not a direct source of revenue,
just remember that still to THIS DAY, there are internet and tv ads running the WDW resort vacation stays with the monorail going through the Contemporary Resort. This is a dark time for the monorail and has been since 2009. But fear not, although the numbers and ideas have of course been explored at the benefits of losing it, they realize there is so much more money to keeping them. The monorail has as much, or more merch than some infamous Disney attractions. There will be changes but the monorail system has so much invested and just being there(even with work needed to be done.)

They are making more money off the monorail system now than ever before. Do not forget that from 1971-1986, you could get the Poly, Grand Floridian or Contemporary Resort hotel stays for cheaper than you could the off property resorts on 192.
More people ride the monorail than Space Mountain and it is a major selling point to bring in a lot more money as well as a functioning transit that assists the load. The return on investments has not gotten that out of control yet.

Just time for those new trains as there are far more miles and wear and tear on these than any other train line in the system before.

 

[Driver]

Busses used to be a great solution to a minor problem...how to get people from a few "non-orail" resorts to Epcot and MK. As the Studios were added, you could take a boat/monorail to most of the theme parks and from most of the hotels, save CBR. Suddenly the expansion of hotels, water parks, and the addition of AK means you now are greatly tilted the opposite way...the vast majority of guests are going to hotels with none of these services.

Bus was always the default and the solution was likely "Add more busses", because its cheap/easy on capex to get approved, known in quality and has is fairly low risk. The problem with this is that unchecked growth in the resort has caused the bus system to become inadequate for the ongoing growth and "add more busses" isn't a logical solution when there are enough busses, just not enough ability to accurately forecast when and how many are needed at any given time. Its easy to plan for the end of the day, because you know how many people are in the park. The start of the day, the afternoon nap time, park to park, transfers, etc...are all random and unknowable. You cant just throw a bus at them every 20 minutes, either. Traffic is a question as well and there isn't a guarantee that an guests will ever be waiting either...busses can come and go with no guests to one resort and, for some reason a full corral of people sit waiting at another resort.

The advantage a monorail or a Gondola is that they are always operating at peak efficiency, all the time (assuming the system is functioning). The problem with a monorail/gondola is that its a $300 Million cost before you even get off the ground. Adding a bus is a $100,000 and an extra FTE. When you are going to a boss and solving a transportation problem, the point where the monorail expansion/gondola build becomes feasible is when the huge ongoing expense of the busses crosses the level of the high upfront cost. It seems that Disney has now hit the point where running busses is just too cost prohibitive on an ongoing basis.

WDW owns a fleet of about 400 busses...lets assume 350 are running any given day and require 2 FTEs per day per bus...using normal Human Resources math, we would get about $23 million per year...on JUST bus driver pay. That doesn't add in items like mechanics, maintenance, bus costs, gas, infrastructure (roads, bus depot, storage, shops, cleaning, etc). Its not difficult to assume the annual expenditure for bussing, alone, at WDW is in the area of $75 million (if not more).

You can tell that this number has finally hit a pain point for Disney to build out a newer mass transit option. Based on the costs of the bus and rising fuel/labor costs, I would guess that gondola stage 2 (or the AK link/gondorail/light rail/whatever) is going to be coming sooner rather than later and is only being spaced out due to the massive capital expenses currently being laid out for Epcot, Studios and gondola phase one.

What's an "FTE"?

 

[Driver]

Busses used to be a great solution to a minor problem...how to get people from a few "non-orail" resorts to Epcot and MK. As the Studios were added, you could take a boat/monorail to most of the theme parks and from most of the hotels, save CBR. Suddenly the expansion of hotels, water parks, and the addition of AK means you now are greatly tilted the opposite way...the vast majority of guests are going to hotels with none of these services.

Bus was always the default and the solution was likely "Add more busses", because its cheap/easy on capex to get approved, known in quality and has is fairly low risk. The problem with this is that unchecked growth in the resort has caused the bus system to become inadequate for the ongoing growth and "add more busses" isn't a logical solution when there are enough busses, just not enough ability to accurately forecast when and how many are needed at any given time. Its easy to plan for the end of the day, because you know how many people are in the park. The start of the day, the afternoon nap time, park to park, transfers, etc...are all random and unknowable. You cant just throw a bus at them every 20 minutes, either. Traffic is a question as well and there isn't a guarantee that an guests will ever be waiting either...busses can come and go with no guests to one resort and, for some reason a full corral of people sit waiting at another resort.

The advantage a monorail or a Gondola is that they are always operating at peak efficiency, all the time (assuming the system is functioning). The problem with a monorail/gondola is that its a $300 Million cost before you even get off the ground. Adding a bus is a $100,000 and an extra FTE. When you are going to a boss and solving a transportation problem, the point where the monorail expansion/gondola build becomes feasible is when the huge ongoing expense of the busses crosses the level of the high upfront cost. It seems that Disney has now hit the point where running busses is just too cost prohibitive on an ongoing basis.

WDW owns a fleet of about 400 busses...lets assume 350 are running any given day and require 2 FTEs per day per bus...using normal Human Resources math, we would get about $23 million per year...on JUST bus driver pay. That doesn't add in items like mechanics, maintenance, bus costs, gas, infrastructure (roads, bus depot, storage, shops, cleaning, etc). Its not difficult to assume the annual expenditure for bussing, alone, at WDW is in the area of $75 million (if not more).

You can tell that this number has finally hit a pain point for Disney to build out a newer mass transit option. Based on the costs of the bus and rising fuel/labor costs, I would guess that gondola stage 2 (or the AK link/gondorail/light rail/whatever) is going to be coming sooner rather than later and is only being spaced out due to the massive capital expenses currently being laid out for Epcot, Studios and gondola phase one.

Your explanation sounds logical however this is not the case. WDW has not reached the end of the proverbial bus rope as it seems you are stating. They are actually expanding in that area.

 

[jgg]

What's an "FTE"?

Full Time Equivalent

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full-time_equivalent

 

[Bender123]

Your explanation sounds logical however this is not the case. WDW has not reached the end of the proverbial bus rope as it seems you are stating. They are actually expanding in that area.

Except that the solution for phase 1 (gondola) wont be running until 2019 at the earliest...In the interim, the company will need to continue bus expansion until the solution is up and running.

Once the gondola is running, you can be sure the Studios and Epcot bus from CBR will be done, leaving bus routes to MK and AK only, with a limited number of internal circulator busses to get people to the platform. As the system expands (as Martin has said plans are in place for a "not monorail and gondola solution" for AK) you can expect drop offs in the need for the bus as these solutions come on line. Think about the Boardwalk and YC/BC...The boat and walkway covers them to Epcot and there is no front of park bus. There is also no MK bus from the CR/Poly/GF. It doesn't make sense to double or triple mass transit options.

think about it this way...If you hand make widgets with a staff of five people, you can either expand by adding another person or building a factory. You don't stop making widgets while the factory is being built and, if you can expand during that time by adding a temp worker, you add a temp worker for a year or two while your factory is being built. Once the factory is open, you can now reduce your staff two people and have realty increased output. Expect the same from Disney with transport...they will continue to expand bussing, until the solution is built, simply because they have to keep guests moving and just sitting for two years isn't an option. Once the gondolas/light rail/whatever is finished, expect a great majority of the drivers to be looking for jobs, but at the rate of the build out, I would expect that to happen for well over a decade...but I would make a strong guess WDW management has a very detailed master plan for transport infrastructure for the next 50 years.

 

[Driver]

Except that the solution for phase 1 (gondola) wont be running until 2019 at the earliest...In the interim, the company will need to continue bus expansion until the solution is up and running.

Once the gondola is running, you can be sure the Studios and Epcot bus from CBR will be done, leaving bus routes to MK and AK only, with a limited number of internal circulator busses to get people to the platform. As the system expands (as Martin has said plans are in place for a "not monorail and gondola solution" for AK) you can expect drop offs in the need for the bus as these solutions come on line. Think about the Boardwalk and YC/BC...The boat and walkway covers them to Epcot and there is no front of park bus. There is also no MK bus from the CR/Poly/GF. It doesn't make sense to double or triple mass transit options.

think about it this way...If you hand make widgets with a staff of five people, you can either expand by adding another person or building a factory. You don't stop making widgets while the factory is being built and, if you can expand during that time by adding a temp worker, you add a temp worker for a year or two while your factory is being built. Once the factory is open, you can now reduce your staff two people and have realty increased output. Expect the same from Disney with transport...they will continue to expand bussing, until the solution is built, simply because they have to keep guests moving and just sitting for two years isn't an option. Once the gondolas/light rail/whatever is finished, expect a great majority of the drivers to be looking for jobs, but at the rate of the build out, I would expect that to happen for well over a decade...but I would make a strong guess WDW management has a very detailed master plan for transport infrastructure for the next 50 years.

Like I said your explanation sounds logical but that's not what's being said on "the inside"

 

[Bender123]

Like I said your explanation sounds logical but that's not what's being said on "the inside"

I doubt that any company would tell their staff "We are planning on getting rid of your job in the next 5-10 years". If a company did that, whats the first thing that would happen? Everybody runs off to find a new job and solution isn't built yet. You pretty much are left with an insane shortage of staff and nobody that will take a job they know will be cut. Like I said, this is a huge project, so don't expect it to start looking different until the Gondola is built and running and "phase 2"...hat ever that is...is nearly complete.

 

[Driver]

I doubt that any company would tell their staff "We are planning on getting rid of your job in the next 5-10 years". If a company did that, whats the first thing that would happen? Everybody runs off to find a new job and solution isn't built yet. You pretty much are left with an insane shortage of staff and nobody that will take a job they know will be cut. Like I said, this is a huge project, so don't expect it to start looking different until the Gondola is built and running and "phase 2"...hat ever that is...is nearly complete.

I'm trying to discreetly tell you something..... your not getting it..... that's ok.

 

[Bender123]

I'm trying to discreetly tell you something..... your not getting it..... that's ok.

Oh, I know what you are telling me, just that what you are saying would be the opposite of good business sense. Why would you offer a replacement system that increases efficiency, increases throughput and costs less be built if the plan was to continuously grow and use the outdated system it was built to replace. There will always be busses, but if you can go from 400 down to 200, you are coming out ahead.

This would be like a pizza hut running a kitchen oven after buying a fancy conveyor oven system. What you are implying makes no sense except in an extremely limited time frame of about 5 to 10 years as the new systems are built out. Oncethe Gondola is complete, there is no need for AoA/CBR/RR to have bus service to two of the 4 parks anymore.

The only thing that amazed me in this whole process is that the gondola isn't being built straight to the Epcot Monorail platform, so you could now link CBR/AoA/Poly/CR/GF/RR to three of four parks WITHOUT THE USE OF A BUS and very short transfers.

Yes...you are right, bus service will increase...until the solution is complete and in place, which is when bus service will no longer be needed and can be reduced or eliminated.

 

[Driver]

Oh, I know what you are telling me, just that what you are saying would be the opposite of good business sense. Why would you offer a replacement system that increases efficiency, increases throughput and costs less be built if the plan was to continuously grow and use the outdated system it was built to replace. There will always be busses, but if you can go from 400 down to 200, you are coming out ahead.

This would be like a pizza hut running a kitchen oven after buying a fancy conveyor oven system. What you are implying makes no sense except in an extremely limited time frame of about 5 to 10 years as the new systems are built out. Oncethe Gondola is complete, there is no need for AoA/CBR/RR to have bus service to two of the 4 parks anymore.

The only thing that amazed me in this whole process is that the gondola isn't being built straight to the Epcot Monorail platform, so you could now link CBR/AoA/Poly/CR/GF/RR to three of four parks WITHOUT THE USE OF A BUS and very short transfers.

Yes...you are right, bus service will increase...until the solution is complete and in place, which is when bus service will no longer be needed and can be reduced or eliminated.

There is currently money being infused into the bus system that does not fit your 5-10 year idea. Also already said is when the train goes down busses come to the rescue. What happens when the gondola and the train goes down. (It could happen) again busses to the rescue. So if you cut the fleet your back up is gone. And I don't see the gondola as the do all gadget that solves "the" problem I think it's just another addition to help. The gondola can be shut down for weather. And you could have people who will simply avoid for fear of height. It's not the same as having a cement beam under you. Your hanging from a thread.
I understand your statement about linking the gondola to the train but the idea here is to take some burden off the train not increase traffic by enabling transfers. Truthfully is what your saying your own ideas or do you have some info to back it up. I did tell you what I know to be factual yet you seem to discount it. I'm sharing truthful info not my own speculation. And I'm not trying to come across as gruff or mean I am just having frank and open conversation. Your entitled to your opinion I respect that. But the info I'm giving you is not opinion it's what's happening.