People talk about RT scores not affecting box office and that is true about some films (we're looking at you, Mario). However, with some, it really does matter. Mario has a following. People tend to really look at RT scores of Disney films these days with Disney under scrutiny and all. When comparing to Tangled, Frozen, Moana, Raya, Encanto, and even Frozen 2, the score for Wish is going to be BLARING. It will still get families with, shall I say, little girls. But other audiences who otherwise turned out for movies like Frozen and Moana, would give this a pass, especially in the age of D+ which Frozen and Moana didn't originally have.
I say that Wish will end up in the Encanto box office range of around $100 million domestic. Not great considering we aren't in the pandemic any longer. Yes, these are VERY tough times for Disney movies for sure. MCU has been on the down swing, remakes aren't living up quite as much as hoped or expected, Pixar is struggling and can't make $200 domestic, and now we have a new Disney princess movie that is rotten. Disney can't catch a break.