Wish (Walt Disney Animation - November 2023)

[celluloid]

Let's wait until later this month or next month. Okay?

Sure. But its a valid discussion to the topic.

I hope Wish awakens Sleeping beauty critically and financially. But, it is not like it has zero market competition both in releases and target audience around it.

 

[TsWade2]

Sigh! Disney Irish, if you please?

 

[MagicHappens1971]

I hope Wish awakens Sleeping beauty critically and financially. But, it is not like it has zero market competition both in releases and target audience around it.

I agree with you that it doesn't have zero competition, but with the strike, studios (non-animated related) may push other films back and leave a pretty empty slate otherwise. May be Wish one weekend, Migration another and Trolls another versus Wonka one weekend and Trolls another.

I will say outside of those 3 animated films we've been discussing, the "family films" slate for the winter is pretty dry.

I think the trailers for Wish did a great job getting people excited but they need to pump more out and get the message spread wide if they want a better chance at success.

 

[celluloid]

I agree with you that it doesn't have zero competition, but with the strike, studios (non-animated related) may push other films back and leave a pretty empty slate otherwise. May be Wish one weekend, Migration another and Trolls another versus Wonka one weekend and Trolls another.

I will say outside of those 3 animated films we've been discussing, the "family films" slate for the winter is pretty dry.

I think the trailers for Wish did a great job getting people excited but they need to pump more out and get the message spread wide if they want a better chance at success.

There is also the fact that Wish cost 200 million. Quite expensive compared to the others. That means it will have to do very well with family films and blockbuster appeal that did not move due to the writer's strike surrounding it.

 

[MagicHappens1971]

There is also the fact that Wish cost 200 million. Quite expensive compared to the others. That means it will have to do very well with family films and blockbuster appeal that did not move due to the writer's strike surrounding it.

Yeah, I originally was anticipating/hoping this film would do $600M+. It would be unfortunate if it did anything less, this movie should be a slam dunk for Disney.

 

[TsWade2]

I guess my doom and gloom moment gets way out of hand and I apologize for that. I do hope Wish is a critical and box office success, even during the strike.

 

[Jedijax719]

Migration comes out a whole month after Wish. The two have plenty of freedom from each other. But Trolls coming out 5 days earlier could be an issue. Add Wonka to the mix and that's LOTS of stuff for the kids this holiday season!

What strikes me as more notable is.....Awkwafina AGAIN????? (and another bird/flying thing nevertheless)

 

[TsWade2]

I found this tweet to give me an idea when the second trailer of Wish will come: I think it’ll come later this month or the next.

 

[celluloid]

Yeah, I originally was anticipating/hoping this film would do $600M+. It would be unfortunate if it did anything less, this movie should be a slam dunk for Disney.

That would be nice for them. I don't think it will quite get that high but they are going to have to hope for that.

It is not the same company climate brand from when Frozen was released a decade ago.

 

[celluloid]

Migration comes out a whole month after Wish. The two have plenty of freedom from each other. But Trolls coming out 5 days earlier could be an issue. Add Wonka to the mix and that's LOTS of stuff for the kids this holiday season!

What strikes me as more notable is.....Awkwafina AGAIN????? (and another bird/flying thing nevertheless)

Sing 2 came out a month after Encanto and stomped on it theatrically at the box office.

I don't think that month time, particulary as you said with Trolls and Wonka in the mix means good things for Wish if that is any indication.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sing 2 came out a month after Encanto and stomped on it theatrically at the box office.

I don't think that month time, particulary as you said with Trolls and Wonka in the mix means good things for Wish if that is any indication.

I think you're giving Trolls, Migration, and even Wonka a bit too much credit.

With Trolls, we really only have the first film for comparison, it made $347M worldwide. As for the second it only made a muted $48M before leaving theaters due to the pandemic, but its been reported it made $150M in digital rentals, for grand total of $198M. So its not the juggernaut you're making it out to seem based on its previous outings. We'll see how the third one will do.

As for Migration, its an unknown as its a new property, but it comes out a whole month after Wish. So given most movies are front-loaded these days Wish would have made a bulk of its box office by the time Migration would even see its first $1. So its not any real competition for the box office.

And with Wonka, this is the third iteration of Wonka, we'll see if there is an audience for a 3rd go around after the Depp version. It also comes out 2 weeks after Wish, so a bit of competition, but just like Migration not a real threat if Wish has made a bulk of its money in the first two weeks.

Wish, as long as it lives up to its billing of a return to more traditional Disney Animation, should do fine.

 

[celluloid]

I think you're giving Trolls, Migration, and even Wonka a bit too much credit.

With Trolls, we really only have the first film for comparison, it made $347M worldwide. As for the second it only made a muted $48M before leaving theaters due to the pandemic, but its been reported it made $150M in digital rentals, for grand total of $198M. So its not the juggernaut you're making it out to seem based on its previous outings. We'll see how the third one will do.

As for Migration, its an unknown as its a new property, but it comes out a whole month after Wish. So given most movies are front-loaded these days Wish would have made a bulk of its box office by the time Migration would even see its first $1. So its not any real competition for the box office.

And with Wonka, this is the third iteration of Wonka, we'll see if there is an audience for a 3rd go around after the Depp version. It also comes out 2 weeks after Wish, so a bit of competition, but just like Migration not a real threat if Wish has made a bulk of its money in the first two weeks.

Wish, as long as it lives up to its billing of a return to more traditional Disney Animation, should do fine.

With the two animation titles under Universal. Never said it would outgross Wish.

It's certainly viable competition to diverse the dollars of holiday patrons.

With Wonka, who knows? Aquaman and hunger games prequel will disturb the pot a bit but that is just in the mix.

It's a myth to think Wish jas it all to itself.

Again. Sing 2 crushed Disney's release the last time they did this month gap. Not saying it will crush again, it is silly to think Disney is not concerned with the competition.

Disney has not won the theatrical animation game in awhile, and this giant budget for Animation needs to.

So many people don't even know what Wish is. Or that it exists. They should really start marketing this, or actually already should have. The strike won't do a ton of favors there. These less than four months will fly.

 

[Disney Irish]

With the two animation titles under Universal. Never said it would outgross Wish.

It's certainly viable competition to diverse the dollars of holiday patrons.

Wonka, who knows? Aquaman and hunger games prequel will disturb the pot a bit but that is just in the mix.

It's a myth to think Wish jas it all to itself.

Again. Sing 2 crushed Disney's release the last time they did this month gap. Not saying it will crush again, it is silly to think Disney is not concerned with the competition.

Disney has not won the theatrical animation game in awhile, and this giant budget for Animation needs to.

I'm not the one who said Wish has the holidays to itself.

But this isn't the first time you've made claims that Trolls and Migration specifically were going to be stiff competition for Wish. I'm just pointing out the fallacy in that thinking, you're betting on one property that isn't huge at the box office and another that is unknown so may not be a huge box office seller either and is a whole month after Wish is released.

Disney has a proven track record during Thanksgiving, and again if Wish is a return to traditional Disney animation as it seems to be, then it shouldn't be too hard to see why Wish may end up continuing that track record.

 

[celluloid]

I'm not the one who said Wish has the holidays to itself.

But this isn't the first time you've made claims that Trolls and Migration specifically were going to be stiff competition for Wish. I'm just pointing out the fallacy in that thinking, you're betting on one property that isn't huge at the box office and another that is unknown so may not be a huge box office seller either and is a whole month after Wish is released.

Disney has a proven track record during Thanksgiving, and again if Wish is a return to traditional Disney animation as it seems to be, then it shouldn't be too hard to see why Wish may end up continuing that track record.

Betting on one that has a hit reputation and comes out first. The second surely performed better than the first, just had the pandemic. So the third with all it's reputation is reasonable to presume competition in the market. I never said specific numbers. So not sure why what I said is dragged on as a fallacy or unrealistic from you.

Migration is under Illumination. The financially hottest brand in family animation entertainment world wide for the last five years. Subjective art aside. It's a fact.
It is more known as of right now than Wish. So it is a direct comparison.

What fallacy?

 

[Disney Irish]

Betting on one that has a hit reputation and comes out first. The second surely performed better than the first, just had the pandemic. So the third with all it's reputation is reasonable to presume competition in the market. I never said specific numbers. So not sure why what I said is dragged on as a fallacy or unrealistic from you.

Migration is under Illumination. The financially hottest brand in family animation entertainment world wide for the last five years. Subjective art aside. It's a fact.
It is more known as of right now than Wish. So it is a direct comparison.

What fallacy?

The fallacy is that thinking Trolls has some hot reputation, given its box office and digital sales say that isn't the case. Its mildly popular at best.

The fallacy is that just because you stamp Illumination on it that it'll be a hit. That is the same thing that many around here says Disney fell into a trap on and is now paying the price for it. So just because it has Illumination on it doesn't mean its a guarantee. And again its coming out a whole month AFTER Wish, so really its not that much competition anyways, again a fallacy.

 

[celluloid]

The fallacy is that thinking Trolls has some hot reputation, given its box office and digital sales say that isn't the case. Its mildly popular at best.

The fallacy is that just because you stamp Illumination on it that it'll be a hit. That is the same thing that many around here says Disney fell into a trap on and is now paying the price for it. So just because it has Illumination on it doesn't mean its a guarantee. And again its coming out a whole month AFTER Wish, so really its not that much competition anyways, again a fallacy.

Trolls, I see your concern, but I am not saying nor did I ever say it would out gross Wish, but like, it is huge with the kids. Holiday specials and all the merch. Clearly, ROI enough to produce a third.
But sure. You say I am overestimating that it will even be strong competition. Which I never stated strong to insinuate much. Just market sharing audience.

As for lamination. Umm. Yeah. Branding matters. No fallacy at all there. Migration could flop instead of fly, but it would be a first for Illumination. So as of right now, and it's published marketing tracking. Looking better than Wish. Disney is Disney, so that can change, but then you have to admit that labeling a brand name on it does matter. So I don't think I am the one with a fallacy.

 

[Disney Irish]

Trolls, I see your concern, but I am not saying nor did I ever say it would out gross Wish, but like, it is huge with the kids. Holiday specials and all the merch. Clearly, ROI enough to produce a third.
But sure. You say I am overestimating that it will even be strong competition. Which I never stated strong to insinuate much. Just market sharing audience.

Yeah I don't see Trolls having that much popularity that you seem to insinuate. But guess we'll see.

As for lamination. Umm. Yeah. Branding matters. No fallacy at all there. Migration could flop instead of fly, but it would be a first for Illumination. So as of right now, and it's published marketing tracking. Looking better than Wish. Disney is Disney, so that can change, but then you have to admit that labeling a brand name on it does matter. So I don't think I am the one with a fallacy.

The biggest fallacy here is that thinking a movie releasing a month later is going to be having a large enough impact that its worrying Disney. Brand name or not its very hard to have any type of impact with a month separation.

 

[celluloid]

Yeah I don't see Trolls having that much popularity that you seem to insinuate. But guess we'll see.


The biggest fallacy here is that thinking a movie releasing a month later is going to be having a large enough impact that its worrying Disney. Brand name or not its very hard to have any type of impact with a month separation.

Encanto and Sing 2.

You are also shifting the argument. You were arguing about the brand illumination. Now it is a fallacy of time of a month of their release dates.

Come on, let's keep going.

 

[Disney Irish]

Encanto and Sing 2.

You are also shifting the argument. You were arguing about the brand illumination. Now it is a fallacy of time of a month of their release dates.

Come on, let's keep going.

Your point is that it happened one time during pandemic releases and so that sets some on-going precedence? Disney shifted Encanto to D+ very shortly after release, so that is not even a valid comparison.

I don't know how Migration will do, but I do know that a month is a long time at the box office. Wish having that whole month is going to be telling on how worried anyone should be about Migration. Meaning that if Wish is already successful by the time Migration is released, it probably won't be much competition given WOM would already have kicked in on Wish.

 

[celluloid]

Your point is that it happened one time during pandemic releases and so that sets some on-going precedence? Disney shifted Encanto to D+ very shortly after release, so that is not even a valid comparison.

So in late 2021 no one wanted to risk Encanto but were risking health for Sing 2 that ran in theaters the same holiday release season?
Peacock has had same day releases and still found theatrical success greater with both Sing 2 and Puss n Boots: Last Wish.

Come on, are you going to make more excuses how no one can top Disney instead of just accepting that it happens/happened?