Will it Star Wars?

[Brad Bishop]

This started becoming a tangent based on something I posted in a separate thread and figured I'd put it in it's own thread as to not derail the original thread:

I could see this, maybe not for the reasons thought of by others:
- Star Wars is a dying property. Yep, you have your fans. Wizard of Oz has it's fans.
- Take the folks who used to go down to WDW for Star Wars weekends and spread them across the year. There's your audience. Many of them probably do WDW anyway because they like the mouse, too.
- Look at the damage they've done to the Star Wars franchise with the latest movies. Even Force Awakens was only thought of as initially good because, basically, it wasn't I, II, or III.

I think it'll end up being a lot like Pandora: Many will want to see it because they're already there. Most wouldn't make a special trip down to see it. With Star Wars, yeah, in that first year some will make that initial trip but not as many as people think.

Look at the movies, really, since Empire. They're not great. People still come because: Star Wars but I think they may be burning out on it (being both nostalgic and disappointed the entire time).

I also think that the dream of SWGE, what it may be during the first year of it being open with it being fully immersive and with people walking around interacting with the guests, will quickly die off to a land with props, rides, food, and merch. I just have a hard time imagining, after the initial fan fare, that WDW will keep on a full crew of actors to interact with the guests. I see it being more more like what DHS had before with: Once in a while they'd bring out Vader and some storm troopers for some stage-show deal.

I don't mean to just be negative with this. I'm not saying it'd be an absolute flop, either.

What I'm trying to convey is that the conventional wisdom is:
- Everything Star Wars is great
- Star Wars will do nothing but print money for Disney
- SWGE is nothing but the best thing ever at Disney parks!
- You can do no wrong with Star Wars
- (more nothing but positive stuff here)

I was 7 in 1977 when Star Wars, before it was renamed to Star Wars, Episode IV, A New Hope, came out. If any kid should be a Star Wars adult it's me. I loved Star Wars as a kid, remember not liking Empire because the bad guys won, and remember not liking Return because Ewoks. I'd grow to really love Empire (I think it's the best movie) and learn to like Return, in spite of the stupid Ewoks. Star Wars always had a warm spot in my heart, though.

When I, II, and III were announced I, like many others, were pretty ecstatic. FINALLY, more Star Wars. Then we were all met with disappointment. I saw them. I really didn't even fully understand them as I felt like they had too many characters to follow and one of them was Star Wars C-SPAN edition. I liked III with the turning of Anakin (well, more towards the end). I got that.

Still, not great movies. VII, VIII, and Rogue One came out. VII was great because it wasn't I, II, and III... it was a rehash of IV, V, and VI which you realized about a week later and then realized it was disappointing. Rogue One was good, though.

Last Jedi - meh. "There's good in you.. I can feel it"- great.. The same freaking lines from before (Empire). I think they've run out of material.

I should be one of the guys who'd excited about Star Wars but I don't even care any longer and I think that holds true with a lot of folks. Yep, you still have your die-hard Star Wars fans who'll buy anything Star Wars but I don't think that there are enough new fans being brought in to make up for the fans falling off the vine and I think a lot of them are falling off the vine and it's a natural process with famous movies which typically have about a 40year arc of popularity (think Wizard of Oz from 1939 and dying off around 1979).

You can see reports of SW products on store shelves being plentiful after Christmas. I don't think kids are connecting with it like they used to and adults are falling by the wayside.

It lands me on: I think SWGE will be a success, especially in the early years (1-2) but, outside of the small, core "Star Wars Weekends" fans from years back, I don't think there's a huge audience for it.

It's a difference between something that would draw people down to Orlando and something that they'd definitely look into while they're there. I think it's the latter.

Also: Let's just beat this beast back: Just because you don't like a movie doesn't mean you're racist or misogynist. That's stupid.

 

[TwilightZone]

I think galaxies edge will be a big draw, not because of being fans of star wars, but because of immersive ride experiences. I could not give a poop about star wars and I'm excited for the land because of the rides.

 

[Brad Bishop]

I may be absolutely wrong on this and, at the same time, I'm not wishing Disney ill will here.

Also, I think when it initially opens it'll have it's initial draw.

My theory is mainly based on that initial draw petering out and that, while the common wisdom says Star Wars is always a win, there are many signs that say it isn't.

In the other thread I also questioned the long-term feasibility of having cast members wander around in character. I figure, sure, the first year that'll happen. After that it'll start being trimmed back because you can't show on the spreadsheet where they're adding to the bottom line and they're still costing money. I think that 2-3 years out it'll be a very detailed land with rides, merch, food, and that's about it (not that it's not good but that the interactive cast members will be gone).

Another side of this, if I were arguing with myself, which I am, is that I think that Star Wars Hotels adds a lot to it. Star Wars land? Meh... I'll visit it when I'm down there. Star Wars hotel?? That starting to sound like a destination.
(though honestly I probably won't do it but it really does sound pretty neat).

My main thrust, though is the popularity arc (about 40 years), a lot of bad movies, Star Wars fatigue, and lots of SW toys left over after each Christmas. It's not getting better. You can see an entire toy dept cleared out the day after Christmas except the Star Wars section.

Of course, this is all arm-chair CEOing. I want to be clear with this: No one at Disney felt the need to call me up and ask me for my opinion on any of this stuff. I didn't have the, "Hey, Brad, what do you think about a Star Wars Land??," nor answer, "...ehhhh... Are you sure??"

 

[TwilightZone]

1. Long term of character walk arounds is pretty good, they have been doing it since disneyland.
2. Popularity of modern star wars =/= popularity of classic star wars, which is what the land and hotel is emulating
3. Even if star wars fans don't show up, millions of others will because of the immersion of the attractions and the hotel.

 

[Maerj]

I recall all of the posts asking why Disney is building an Avatar land. I recall people saying that no one likes that movie, no one cares about that movie. But look now, Avatar FOP is one of their most popular rides. You build a great ride, a well-themed land and people will show up for it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For me...in the same digruntled gen x age bracket...

I have struggled since 1999 to understand how very intelligent, well funded people can continue to miss the mark consistently with this property. It’s been tinkered away from the emotional center that worked so well in the first place.

I use the Yoda sequence of the “episode 8: the last movie this guy should direct” as the poster child for everything that’s wrong. But I don’t want to go off this.

I’ll tell you what made it tough - other than growing up - which is a thing...

It’s that the 90’s leading up to the sequels had such good character studies on tv...TNG (one of the greatest shows ever...any type), DS9, and B5 were so well done...it proved that it wasn’t aliens in masks that resonated with you and stuck to the ribs...it was the dialogue/interactions. That was what Star Wars managed to do right in the original trilogy. Not the best movies...but your subconscious bought it.

We’ve seen one 90 degree turn for the worse after another since.

And now that we are where we are...I can see us looking back in a few years and thinking disney has done worse...

I never thought that in 2012...I didn’t want to believe it. Still don’t.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

1. Long term of character walk arounds is pretty good, they have been doing it since disneyland.
2. Popularity of modern star wars =/= popularity of classic star wars, which is what the land and hotel is emulating
3. Even if star wars fans don't show up, millions of others will because of the immersion of the attractions and the hotel.

This continues to be a point that isn’t being argued. Nobody is predicting the failure of the Star Wars lands. It’s a bigger issue than a gate rush, however.

I recall all of the posts asking why Disney is building an Avatar land. I recall people saying that no one likes that movie, no one cares about that movie. But look now, Avatar FOP is one of their most popular rides. You build a great ride, a well-themed land and people will show up for it.

I agree...but that leaves a lot of unknown too...

Who do you trust to deliver a better standoff ride? The “Lucas story group” or James Cameron?

I gotta go with the nut there.

And besides...the rides seem to be based on 7...and I think that is a huge mistake. The more time goes on...the more that movie becomes the epicenter of the developing problems

 

[TwilightZone]

Now I think about it... star tours has had consistent long lines despite the prequels (when counting star tours 1) and the sequels (counting recent movies and star tours 2).
So it shows that despite what's going around with the movies, these rides will be getting quite a bit of lines.

 

[Brad Bishop]

I recall all of the posts asking why Disney is building an Avatar land. I recall people saying that no one likes that movie, no one cares about that movie. But look now, Avatar FOP is one of their most popular rides. You build a great ride, a well-themed land and people will show up for it.

I would be one of those. I'd say we're still pretty early in. If 5 years out it's still drawing large crowds (2022, right?) then I'll say I was wrong. I won't make excuses if they further add attractions or other items to that section. I'll just be wrong.

Right now I'd argue: 1st year, sure it's going to be busy. Is it really pulling people in or is it busy with people already there (which may be hard to prove either way). There's another thread saying crowds are softening. I could argue, "How could that be? Avatar is right there. How are people not jamming up I75, I10, and I95 trying to get into FL to see Pandora??"

Still, a legitimate question: Is Avatar really pulling in a lot of new FL visitors or is it just that visitors who are already there / were already going to be there are going to see it because, "We're here. It's new."? Surely there has to be some metric which is along the lines of, "With the opening of Avatar, local hotels are seeing a real decrease in available inventory!"

 

[Brad Bishop]

And besides...the rides seem to be based on 7...and I think that is a huge mistake. The more time goes on...the more that movie becomes the epicenter of the developing problems

The Falcon ride looks both really awesome and potentially horrible. I'm pretty sure that they'll fix the really horrible part before it opens - they'll kind of have to.

Really awesome: We're all piloting the Falcon and working together!

Really horrible: 4yo little Dan isn't pulling his weight and keeps heading us into asteroids! I'm going to have a few words with Dan with this is over!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The Falcon ride looks both really awesome and potentially horrible. I'm pretty sure that they'll fix the really horrible part before it opens - they'll kind of have to.

Really awesome: We're all piloting the Falcon and working together!

Really horrible: 4yo little Dan isn't pulling his weight and keeps heading us into asteroids! I'm going to have a few words with Dan with this is over!

I’m actually not into that.

I do hope it’s good...but somehow they’ve overused the falcon. And I fear the ride will be too short

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Now I think about it... star tours has had consistent long lines despite the prequels (when counting star tours 1) and the sequels (counting recent movies and star tours 2).
So it shows that despite what's going around with the movies, these rides will be getting quite a bit of lines.

Star tours has been 20 minutes or less more often than not since the original fast pass...

Maybe I’ve just been in the park the 300 or so days it’s been usually slow?

And the problem with mgm has been it’s never had enough in the attraction department...not for the attendance

 

[Dead2009]

Just because the last few Star Wars movies haven't been received well, doesnt mean the presence in the parks are killing the franchise.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just because the last few Star Wars movies haven't been received well, doesnt mean the presence in the parks are killing the franchise.

I just called a friend who speaks Klingon and he couldn’t translate this either...

Huh?!?

 

[Dead2009]

I just called a friend who speaks Klingon and he couldn’t translate this either...

Huh?!?

The OP posted a quote that claimed SW is a dying franchise

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The OP posted a quote that claimed SW is a dying franchise

Got it...

I think that’s too strong...but I do think it’s a “declining franchise”. They haven’t managed it well...unlike mcu (to this point) and Harry Potter

That doesn’t mean the park portion - which is small - won’t be juiced.

 

[Brad Bishop]

Got it...

I think that’s too strong...but I do think it’s a “declining franchise”. They haven’t managed it well...unlike mcu (to this point) and Harry Potter

That doesn’t mean the park portion - which is small - won’t be juiced.

I think it's declining / dying franchise. It doesn't mean people still don't go to the movies, though. Sears has been dying for 3 decades now so, they have that going for them.

Ultimately, though, yes, I do think that Disney bought in on the tail-end of Star Wars. They bought Star wars on Oct 30, 2012. That was 35 years in. I think that most franchises have a "natural life" of 40 to maybe 50 years.

Contrast that with Universal buying into Harry Potter: They bought in in 2007 (well, that was when it was announce but they probably bought in earlier). Harry Potter started in 2001 so they were roughly 6 years in which seems like a far better position than 35 years in.

You could argue Avatar with Disney buying in 2011 vs 2009 when the movie was released but there I'd argue a few things:
1) Avatar was the biggest grossing movie at the time but no one can hum the theme or remember any characters other than "evil corporate people" and "blue people"
2) the sequels to Avatar keep getting pushed out.
3) 3D movies were supposed to take over but it seems as though they're dying out. Make no mistake that Avatar was the first really good 3D movie. Of course, the first really good sound movie was the Jazz Singer and we're not seeing any lands about that.

Basically: Star Wars is at the end, or pretty close to it, of it's arc with regards to relevance. It's just it's natural live. Kids being born today likely will give zero cares about Star Wars when they're 20 and SWGE will be a: "Oh, that's just based on that film from the 1900s. Yeah. Right."

A lot of my theory is based on that "movie arc" but it's also based on relevancy. The Wizard of Oz is still a great movie but I doubt if my grandson would get excited about it (he's not excited about Star Wars, either). I still enjoy the movie. It's the same with Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory (Gene Wilder). It's a great movie but I think most modern kids wouldn't relate to 1970s kids.

(not going to mention the bizarro crap that was made with Johnny Depp here)

 

[danlb_2000]

This started becoming a tangent based on something I posted in a separate thread and figured I'd put it in it's own thread as to not derail the original thread:



I don't mean to just be negative with this. I'm not saying it'd be an absolute flop, either.

What I'm trying to convey is that the conventional wisdom is:
- Everything Star Wars is great
- Star Wars will do nothing but print money for Disney
- SWGE is nothing but the best thing ever at Disney parks!
- You can do no wrong with Star Wars
- (more nothing but positive stuff here)

I was 7 in 1977 when Star Wars, before it was renamed to Star Wars, Episode IV, A New Hope, came out. If any kid should be a Star Wars adult it's me. I loved Star Wars as a kid, remember not liking Empire because the bad guys won, and remember not liking Return because Ewoks. I'd grow to really love Empire (I think it's the best movie) and learn to like Return, in spite of the stupid Ewoks. Star Wars always had a warm spot in my heart, though.

When I, II, and III were announced I, like many others, were pretty ecstatic. FINALLY, more Star Wars. Then we were all met with disappointment. I saw them. I really didn't even fully understand them as I felt like they had too many characters to follow and one of them was Star Wars C-SPAN edition. I liked III with the turning of Anakin (well, more towards the end). I got that.

Still, not great movies. VII, VIII, and Rogue One came out. VII was great because it wasn't I, II, and III... it was a rehash of IV, V, and VI which you realized about a week later and then realized it was disappointing. Rogue One was good, though.

Last Jedi - meh. "There's good in you.. I can feel it"- great.. The same freaking lines from before (Empire). I think they've run out of material.

I should be one of the guys who'd excited about Star Wars but I don't even care any longer and I think that holds true with a lot of folks. Yep, you still have your die-hard Star Wars fans who'll buy anything Star Wars but I don't think that there are enough new fans being brought in to make up for the fans falling off the vine and I think a lot of them are falling off the vine and it's a natural process with famous movies which typically have about a 40year arc of popularity (think Wizard of Oz from 1939 and dying off around 1979).

You can see reports of SW products on store shelves being plentiful after Christmas. I don't think kids are connecting with it like they used to and adults are falling by the wayside.

It lands me on: I think SWGE will be a success, especially in the early years (1-2) but, outside of the small, core "Star Wars Weekends" fans from years back, I don't think there's a huge audience for it.

It's a difference between something that would draw people down to Orlando and something that they'd definitely look into while they're there. I think it's the latter.

Also: Let's just beat this beast back: Just because you don't like a movie doesn't mean you're racist or misogynist. That's stupid.

I disagree with this point....

"- Take the folks who used to go down to WDW for Star Wars weekends and spread them across the year. There's your audience. Many of them probably do WDW anyway because they like the mouse, too."

I think there is a huge audience of people who like Star Wars, and will want to go to the land, but that wouldn't make a special trip for Star Wars weekends. I am a huge Star Wars fan, but I have never even been to Star Wars Weekends.

I also think it's to early to say Star Wars is dying. Last Jedi had some mis-steps that ed off some people and I think that contributed to Solo's problems at the box office, but I think they can get things back on track with Episode 9 if it's done well.

 

[danlb_2000]

As to this point:

"I also think that the dream of SWGE, what it may be during the first year of it being open with it being fully immersive and with people walking around interacting with the guests, will quickly die off to a land with props, rides, food, and merch. I just have a hard time imagining, after the initial fan fare, that WDW will keep on a full crew of actors to interact with the guests. I see it being more more like what DHS had before with: Once in a while they'd bring out Vader and some storm troopers for some stage-show deal. "

I do agree with this, but not because of any fault of the Star Wars IP, but simply because of cost of doing this. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these interactive elements don't even survive until opening.

 

[Stripes]

I disagree with this point....

"- Take the folks who used to go down to WDW for Star Wars weekends and spread them across the year. There's your audience. Many of them probably do WDW anyway because they like the mouse, too."

I think there is a huge audience of people who like Star Wars, and will want to go to the land, but that wouldn't make a special trip for Star Wars weekends. I am a huge Star Wars fan, but I have never even been to Star Wars Weekends.

I also think it's to early to say Star Wars is dying. Last Jedi had some mis-steps that ****ed off some people and I think that contributed to Solo's problems at the box office, but I think they can get things back on track with Episode 9 if it's done well.

I think Episode 9 is a lost cause for me personally. I'm excited for the Mandalorian series, and the Benioff/Weiss movies, I'm even gonna give Rian Johnson a second chance with his trilogy. But Episode 9 is dead to me. I couldn't give one iota about any of the characters.