From their perspective, I don’t think Disney sees a need in the currently foreseeable future for a fifth gate weather there are ideas and space for it or not.
Think about it. What do they really gain by adding a fifth gate? They get a media blitz for the first few months it is open but that is pretty much a one time deal. They get added space for building new attractions and added guest capacity but they still have plenty of space in the existing parks and part of their reason for going more global with theme parks is because they fear that the Orlando area has already begun to reach near saturation level in terms of international tourism. If that is true, then the more people build up in the Orlando area the more they steal business away from each other rather than bringing it in. The only other advantage that I can see is a fifth ticket turnstile which is next to worthless long term for them since most people going to multiple parks are going to be going over multiple days and will be using a length of stay pass, a hopper pass of some sort or an annual pass.
Building a new park means adding a whole new leg to the transportation system (roads, busses, waterways monorails or whatever) to get them there as well as major upgrades to the property’s utilities systems to accommodate said park (electricity, plumbing, sewage, trash and recycling pickup) They also have to hire a slew of new cast members for the ticket booths, turnstiles, Guest relations, shops, restaurants, first aid, custodial duties, security, and a whole bunch more that I probably can’t think of not to mention supervisors and managers for all these things and as it stands now, unskilled low wage work (what most of the positions that deal with the public are) is already hurting the area economy. In fact, before 911, a lot of places were having trouble finding people to fill these positions…
As it stands right now, I see more of an advantage in Disney doing what they are doing by adding on and updating existing parks than building a 5th gate for quite a while yet to come – possibly ever. There aren’t really any advantages that a fifth gate will bring them at this point that can’t already be gotten with additions to existing parks at a lower cost and for people who don’t have these multi-day, multi-park deals it adds more value to their ticket purchases which may even make adding onto parks like the MK (which is the oldest but still most visited by a long shot) bring in more guests in the long run over a new park because it is easier to convince people to go someplace familiar to try out new things where they know they will have a good time, even if they aren’t into the new stuff than to a whole new park with all of it’s unknowns (will there be enough for the young kids to keep them busy? The teens? Mom & dad? Grandparents?)
Also, with the opening of the Pop Century resort I see a definite trend at getting the ‘average family’ locked into the highly profitable model of length of stay packages. By offering more space in the market of semi-quasi-affordable rooms, they can push the add on packages more easily to people who would otherwise stay off property and go to wet-n-wild for a day (or another full park such as IOA, US or SW) than go to say, Blizzard beach and/or go parasailing in Bay Lake.
If this trend holds true, we are more likely to see more smaller half day parks (like the water parks) or other unique single standing attractions (like DQ) which do not necessarily have a broad appeal like a theme park but can more individually appeal to the tastes of individual guests giving them a more special and unique experience in a more economical way all while bringing in additional profits.
I’m sure that everyone who wants a Disney Seas will argue with me on all of this but in the end, what does a 5th gate really give them? I mean, what did the 4th gate really do for them in regards to profits or attendance (other than give them the ability to add a new unique deluxe resort that they would have otherwise been unable to produce affordably)? As it stands, Mission space is the first single attraction to get its own national marketing campaign. If that is successful, they don’t even need to hold out for a new park or celebration for that kind of thing…
I’m sure we would all like to see a great fifth gate but how much so? Are we going to stay on Disney property for an extra day or two to go to it? Are we going to pay say, 20-30% more for our hopper/annual passes without complaint to go to it? If not, there wouldn’t really be ANY value at all in the move and even if so, it might not be enough value to make it worth while.
We probably won't see a 5th gate for quite some years for precisely that reason. Animal Kingdom is about a 1/2 day for most, and MGM is not really a full day either (although its close). But when we do get one, I hear its going to be an exact clone of California Adventure. :lol:
